Next Generation

Computing Roadmap

FINAL REPORT
A study prepared for the European Commission
DG Communications Networks, Content & Technology
by:

Digital
Agenda for
Europe

This study was carried out for the European Commission by

eutema GmbH (Austria) in co-operation with Optimat, EPCC and 451 Research
Authors:

Erich Prem Jrg Irran (eutema), editors; Mark Sawyer, Mark

Parsons (EPCC), Csilla Zsigri (451 Research), Ian Morgan and
Ashley Stewart (Optimat)

Co-ordinator: Erich Prem, eutema

prem [at] eutema [dot] com

Internal identification
Contract: 30-CE-0528423/00-42
SMART 2012/0052

DISCLAIMER
By the European Commission, Directorate-General of Communications Networks, Content & Technology.
The information and views set out in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect
the official opinion of the Commission. The Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in
this study. Neither the Commission nor any person acting on the Commissions behalf may be held responsible
for the use which may be made of the information contained therein.
ISBN 978-92-79-37580-4
DOI: 10.2759/4587
European Union, 2014. All rights reserved. Certain parts are licensed under conditions to the EU.

About the authors

Erich Prem is a research and innovation strategist based in Vienna, Austria. He is the CEO of eutema
and has a background in Computer Science and lectures at the Vienna University of Technology and
University of Vienna.
Jrg Irran is a computer scientist working as a programme manager and IT consultant in Vienna,
Austria. He is a graduated engineer and an experienced computing professional with many years of
experience acting both as a researcher and IT consultant and being involved in several scientific and
industrial driven research projects.
Mark Sawyer is a High Performance Computing specialist with over 20 years of experience managing
technology transfer projects between industry and academia. He has been involved in HPC roadmapping activities for the EC, and has acted as a technology advisor and consultant for numerous
commercial and public organisations.
Mark Parsons is a Professor of High Performance Computing at the University of Edinburgh and
Executive Director of EPCC, the supercomputing centre at the university. Over the past 20 years he
has led a wide variety of HPC and distributed computing projects ranging from technology transfer
projects with industry to lead-edging research projects at the forefront of numerical and data-driven
computing.
Csilla Zsigri is a multi-skilled and multi-lingual business, management and technology consultant. She
is Director of Consulting Services EMEA and member of 451 Advisors, consulting division of The 451
Group, a leading global analyst, data and professional services company.
Ian Morgan is a technology strategy and innovation specialist that has carried out numerous
technology fore-sighting and road-mapping studies in a variety of enabling technologies and
including digital technologies, Internet of Everything and Big Data. Ian has also provides business
diversification and strategic growth support to entrepreneurs and start-ups.
Ashley Stewart is a strategy consultant based in Scotland, UK. She has both academic and
commercial experience, researching and conducting a number of Digital Technologies and ICT
projects.

Table of Contents
1

Abstract _____________________________________________________________________ 1

Executive Summary ____________________________________________________________ 3

2.1

Summary_________________________________________________________________ 3

2.2

Zusammenfassung _________________________________________________________ 9

2.3

Rsum analytique________________________________________________________ 14

Background and Methodology __________________________________________________ 19

3.1

Background ______________________________________________________________ 19

3.2

Methodology ____________________________________________________________ 20

Scenarios of the Future ________________________________________________________ 23

4.1

Background ______________________________________________________________ 23

4.2

Megatrends and scenario coverage __________________________________________ 23

4.3

The Digital Citizen: Its all about me __________________________________________ 25

4.4

The Digital Nation: Its all about us ___________________________________________ 27

4.5

Intelligent Transport: Trains and other Vehicles with Brains _______________________ 30

4.6

Education and Research: Connected brains ____________________________________ 32

4.7

Future Healthcare: Health and happiness in the digital age _______________________ 35

4.8

Living with scarce resources: Renewtopia _____________________________________ 38

4.9

Future Manufacturing: At a factory near you ___________________________________ 40

4.10

Technology needs _______________________________________________________ 43

The RTDI challenges __________________________________________________________ 47

State-of-Play ________________________________________________________________ 51

6.1

Our computing environment today ___________________________________________ 51

6.2

High-level European SWOT analysis __________________________________________ 56

Research Priorities ____________________________________________________________ 63

7.1

Policy options and recommendations _________________________________________ 64

7.2

Research programme recommendations ______________________________________ 66

7.3

Game-changing and disruptive technologies at the horizon _______________________ 69

Roadmap ___________________________________________________________________ 71
8.1

Scenario-specific roadmaps _________________________________________________ 71

8.2

Combined European Roadmap ______________________________________________ 88

Acknowledgements ______________________________________________________________ 89

NGC Roadmap Study

1 Abstract
Over the years computing has evolved to nearly always on web-based mobile computing devices. In
the near future we can expect that hardware will become a commodity and the value will be in the
software to drive it and the data it generates. The data deluge will require an infrastructure that can
transfer and store the data, and computing systems that can analyse and extract value from data in
real time. There are arguments suggesting that the computing sector will become increasingly
polarised between small application-specific computing units that connect to provide system
services, and larger more powerful units that will be required to analyse large volumes of data in real
time.
This report presents a vision of next generation computing for the next 10-15 years. It does this by
developing a number of visionary scenarios covering key areas of everyday life. Starting from these
scenarios, we present a series of technology roadmaps, associated research / development /
innovation challenges and recommendations for Europe to exploit the opportunities offered by the
next generation of computing.
Seven scenarios were carefully developed to address critical aspects of society and economy.
Describing how computing will evolve in each of the scenarios has allowed us to describe a series of
technology needs that, by considering Europes current strengths and weaknesses in computing, we
could translate into research and innovation challenges for Europe, and into value creation
opportunities for the European industry.

NGC Roadmap Study

NGC Roadmap Study

2 Executive Summary
2.1 Summary
2.1.1 Key Messages
Parallel hardware is now mainstream, but parallel software is not. While all consumer CPUs are
now multi-core, software is still designed as mainly sequential. The parallelisation of legacy code is
very expensive and requires developers with skills in both computer architecture and application
domain. European industry needs a new generation of tools for writing software, backed by
innovative programming models. New tools should be natively parallel and allow for optimisation of
code at run-time across the multiple dimensions of performance, reliability, throughput, latency and
energy consumption while presenting the appropriate level of abstraction to developers. Innovative
business models may be needed in order to make the development of new generation tools
economically viable.
High-performance computing meets cyber-physical systems. Applications in automation, aerospace,
automotive and manufacturing require computing power which was typical of supercomputers a few
years ago, but with constraints on size, power consumption and guaranteed response time which are
typical of the embedded applications. This is a market opportunity to build upon the existing strength
of European industry to develop a family of innovative and scalable technologies, powering
computing devices ranging from the embedded micro-server to the large data centre.
Internet of Everything is developing fast. Computing applications merging automation, real-time
processing of big data, autonomous behaviour and very low power consumption are changing the
physical world we live in, and creating new areas of application like e.g. smart cities, smart homes,
etc Data locality is becoming an issue, driving the development of multi-level applications which
see processing and data shared between local/mobile devices and cloud-based servers. European
industry has the know-how and innovation capacity to be a leader in this area, where issues like
interoperable interfaces, privacy and data sharing rules will play a very important role in the
development of the market.
2.1.2 Scenarios for next generation computing
Over the years computing has evolved to nearly always on web-based mobile computing devices. In
the near future we can expect that hardware will become a commodity and the value will be in the
software to drive it and the data it generates. The data deluge will require an infrastructure that can
transfer and store the data, and computing systems that can analyse and extract value from data in
real time. There are arguments suggesting that the computing sector will become increasingly
polarised between small application-specific computing units that connect to provide system services,
and larger more powerful units that will be required to analyse large volumes of data in real time.
This report presents a vision of next generation computing for the next 10-15 years. It does this by
developing a number of visionary scenarios covering key areas of every day's life.
Starting from these scenarios, we present a series of technology roadmaps, associated research /
development / innovation challenges and recommendations for Europe to exploit the opportunities
offered by the next generation of computing.

NGC Roadmap Study

Stakeholders throughout Europe were involved in the study through direct contacts and through two
separate workshops providing a validation and refinement of the recommendations arising from this
study.
Seven scenarios were carefully developed to address critical aspects of society and economy.
Describing how computing will evolve in each of the scenarios has allowed us to describe a series of
technology needs that, by considering Europes current strengths and weaknesses in computing, we
could translate into research and innovation challenges for Europe, and into value creation
opportunities for the European industry.
Table 1: Overview of scenarios

Scenario

Focus

Its All About Me

Empowering the individual citizen

Its All About Us

Communities and how they collaborate

Trains and other Vehicles with Brains

Making transport more efficient

Connected Brains

Research, education and knowledge sharing

Health & Happiness

Health and social well being

Renewtopia

Sustainability, Energy and resource

management

At a Factory Near You

Manufacturing in the future

A common theme across all scenarios is the need for small low-cost and low-power computing
systems that are fully interconnected, self-aware, context-aware and self-optimising within
application boundaries.
A key element of the value chain is in software and programming methodologies, and this builds on
existing strengths in Europe. Moreover, with a particular know-how in industrial and embedded
multicore systems, Europe is well placed to support the growth of the infrastructure needed to
transfer, store and analyse large volumes of data in real time. This will form the backbone to support
the growth of the Internet of Everything and the next generation of Cloud Computing.

NGC Roadmap Study

2.1.3 Areas of opportunity

In this context, we can identify several areas of opportunity for computing in Europe, where
investment in research and development can generate significant economic value in terms of
exploitation.
Cyber-physical systems

Building on existing strengths in embedded / cyber physical systems and increasing research
in this area will allow maintaining European leadership. Efforts will be focused on
implementing a vision of smart networked cyber physical systems, based on manycore lowpower architectures and powered by natively parallel software.

Software

Research priorities should include autonomous systems together with dynamic and
configurable computing including context-aware, self-optimising software and dependable
systems. A strong effort is needed on programming models and tools for next-generation
systems including native parallel programming and multi-dimensional optimisation (energy,
throughput, response time, reliability, resilience). Productivity in parallel software
development should be greatly improved, while limiting the need for developers to be skilled
in both low-level computer architecture and high-level application domain. Innovative
programming models and tools should provide the right level of abstraction to make parallel
programming less expensive and more agile. This area will potentially provide strong
economic value.

Energy

Europe is a global leader in energy efficiency and this will be a key requirement in next
generation computing. Improvements will apply across the whole computing continuum,
from the high performance data centres required to exploit the opportunities offered by big
data to the small computing devices used in mobile and embedded applications powering
the Internet of Things. High-performance computing will range from cyber-physical systems
to industrial and scientific applications, with a variety of solutions scaling across different
computing powers but sharing energy efficiency concerns. The economic value of energy
efficient computing is potentially very high because it can enable applications which are
otherwise not possible in very diverse fields like health, environment, and automation.

Computer interfaces

Advanced human-computer interfaces will become increasingly important and will support
natural and immersive interfaces such as mixed-reality devices. These interfaces will require
adequate high performance and real time computing power, as well as research into health,
behavioural and psychological issues to humanise our relationship with this new ubiquitous
computing landscape. Similarly, advances in security will need computing power to analyse
large quantities of data in real time in order to identify threats and provide mitigation actions,
and to guarantee the appropriate level of data privacy in different usage scenarios.

In this world with large amounts of shared and open data easily available, there will be an increasing
need for tools and methodologies to address privacy and security issues. Data and its openness,

NGC Roadmap Study

consistency and governance will become an area of increasing importance that will either be a key
enabler or a high barrier for the effective exploitation of next generation computing.
Another cross cutting area will be the need for industry wide interoperable interfaces for data and
services, which will be needed for the effective development of the Internet of Everything.
There are also several other areas that are arguably outside the timeframe considered in this report,
but have nevertheless the potential to become disruptive forces for the next generation of
computing.

Quantum computing although talked about for many years is still in its infancy but has the
potential to solve large scale computational problems orders of magnitude faster than
existing systems.

New energy sources, computing architectures and energy harvesting and storage systems
that allow cyber physical systems to works for years with no need for recharge; this will have
revolutionary impact on computing, making always on devices economically feasible and
opening the door to disruptive applications.

Smart materials beyond implantable and wearable computing, technologies such as printed
electronics, biomaterials and graphene have the potential to radically change both the
human-computer interface and the way in which computers interact with the physical world.

2.1.4 Policy support

At a policy level, work is needed to ensure that the infrastructure and legislative environment in
Europe provides the right conditions for uptake of computing technologies.

Easily understood policies on data openness, governance, privacy and sharing, especially
across borders, will have to be developed with the collaboration of all involved stakeholders
(citizens, local and national governments, industry, SMEs).

The Internet of Everything requires a fully connected society and further work is required to
develop faster and cheaper internet access, especially mobile access, across Europe. The high
costs for large data transfers, the limited coverage of fast mobile networks, and the cost of
cross-border data roaming are not compatible with the development of the market.

European technology and service providers should be encouraged to cross sell and share
technologies across multiple markets to maximise convergence and address common
challenges.

European governments should lead by example in the openness and sharing of data to
stimulate innovation in areas such as public services, energy, environment and Health, by
promoting interoperable interfaces and a sustainable market place for services.

Further work is still needed to build an innovation eco-system that brings together academia,
industry, entrepreneurs and funding organisations, this should also consider cross sector /
application collaboration.

NGC Roadmap Study

Technological and societal changes will create opportunities for new business models, possibly based
on open collaboration and on innovative ways of connecting the actors in the value chain. The
infrastructure and legislative environment must be able to support and enable value creation both
from traditional industrial actors and from new actors like citizens, non-profit organisations, local
governments, prosumers, micro-enterprises.
Europe is well positioned to benefit from the opportunities that will arise as we move towards the
next generation of computing and the society that it will enable. But there will be an increasing
challenge for Europe to put in place common communication standards, a policy on open and shared
data, seamless cross-border mobile telecommunications services and privacy and security measures
that will create the environment for next generation computing and its applications to flourish.

NGC Roadmap Study

2.1.5 Combined roadmap

As a summary, below you can find the combined roadmap for European research derived from the
interviews, the desk research, the online-consultation and the experts input at the workshops. It
expands the concepts and ideas which are briefly described in this executive summary; the
methodology to build it, and its contents, are fully explained in chapters Research priorities and
Roadmap of this report.

NGC Roadmap Study

2.2 Zusammenfassung
2.2.1 Kernaussagen
Parallele Hardware liegt im Trend, nicht aber Parallele Software. Whrend die CPUs fr
Konsumenten jetzt multi-core sind, wird Software noch immer vor allem sequentiell entworfen. Die
Parallelisierung von Altcode ist sehr teuer und erfordert Entwickler mit Kenntnissen auf dem Gebiet
der Computerarchitektur als auch im Anwendungsgebiet. Die Europische Industrie bentigt eine
neue Generation an Werkzeugen fr die Softwareentwicklung untersttzt durch innovative
Programm-Modelle. Neue Werkzeuge sollten grundlegend parallel sein und die Optimierung des
Codes zur Laufzeit ber verschiedene Leistungsdimensionen wie Schnelligkeit, Zuverlssigkeit,
Durchsatz, Latenz und Energieverbrauch hinweg erlauben und zugleich die passende
Abstraktionsebene fr Entwickler darstellen. Dabei knnen auch innovative Geschftsmodelle ntig
werden, um die Entwicklung einer neuen Werkzeuggeneration wirtschaftlich gangbar zu machen.
Hochleistungsrechnen und cyber-physikalische Systeme. Anwendungen in Automatisierung,
Luftfahrt, Automobilbau und Produktion erfordern eine Rechenleistung, die vor wenigen Jahren fr
Superrechner typisch war; allerdings mit Einschrnkungen hinsichtlich Gre, Leistungsverbrauch
und garantierter Antwortzeit, die typisch fr integrierte Anwendungen sind. Aufbauend auf
bestehenden Strken der europischen Industrie stellt dies eine Marktchance dar, um eine Familie
innovativer und skalierbarer Technologien zu entwickeln, die Gerte ermglichen, die von
integrierten Mikroservern bis zu groen Datenzentren reichen.
Das Internet fr Alles entwickelt sich schnell. Computeranwendungen, die Automatisierung,
Echtzeitverarbeitung von groen Daten (Big Data), autonomes Verhalten und sehr niedrigen
Energieverbrauch verbinden, verndern die physische Welt in der wir leben und erzeugen so neue
Anwendungsgebiete, wie z.B. Smart Cities, Smart Homes etc. Datenlokalitt wird dabei ein wichtiges
Thema, das die Entwicklung bei Mehrebenen-Anwendungen vorantreibt, bei denen Verarbeitung
und Daten zwischen lokalen/mobilen Gerten und Cloud-basierten Servern aufgeteilt wird. Die
Europische Industrie verfgt ber das Knowhow und die Innovationskraft, um auf diesem Gebiet
fhrend zu sein. Hier werden Themen wie interoperable Interfaces, Datenschutz und Regeln fr den
Datenaustausch eine wichtige Rolle fr die Marktentwicklung spielen.
2.2.2 Szenarien fr die EDV der nchsten Generation
EDV hat sich ber die Jahre hin zu dauernd verfgbaren web-basierten mobilen Gerten entwickelt.
In der nahen Zukunft knnen wir erwarten, dass Hardware ein Gebrauchsgut wird und dass der Wert
in der Software liegen wird, diese zu betreiben, sowie in den dabei generierte Daten. Die Datenflut
wird eine Infrastruktur erforderlich machen, welche Daten bertragen und speichern kann, sowie
Rechnersysteme, die Daten analysieren knnen und Mehrwert aus den Daten in Echtzeit generieren.

NGC Roadmap Study

10

Es gibt Argumente, die nahe legen, dass der EDV-Sektor zunehmend polarisiert wird zwischen kleinen
anwendungsspezifischen Recheneinheiten, die Systemdienste zur Verfgung stellen knnen und
greren, leistungsfhigeren Einheiten, die fr die Analyse groer Datenmengen in Echtzeit ntig
sein werden.
Dieser Bericht stellt eine Vision fr die EDV der nchsten Generation fr die kommenden zehn bis
fnfzehn Jahre vor. Dies geschieht durch verschiedene visionre Szenarien, die wesentliche Gebiete
des tglichen Lebens abdecken. Ausgehend von diesen Szenarien stellen wir eine Reihe von
Technologie-Roadmaps mit den zugehrigen Herausforderungen in Forschung, Entwicklung und
Innovation vor und prsentieren Empfehlungen fr Europa, um die Chancen, die sich aus der EDV der
nchsten Generation ergeben, zu nutzen.
Stakeholder in Europa waren direkt bzw. in zwei Workshops in die Erstellung dieser Studie involviert
und haben so die sich ergebenden Empfehlungen validiert und verfeinert.
Um die wichtigen gesellschaftlichen und wirtschaftlichen Aspekte anzusprechen, wurden sieben
Szenarios genauer entwickelt. Die Beschreibung der Evolution der EDV in jedem der Szenarios hat es
uns mglich gemacht, eine Reihe von Technologieanforderungen zu beschreiben, die wir unter
Bedacht auf Europas derzeitige Strken und Schwchen in der EDV in Forschungs- und
Innovationsherausforderungen fr Europa bersetzen konnten und damit in Chancen fr die
Schaffung von Mehrwert fr die europische Industrie.
Tabelle 2: berblick ber die Szenarien

Scenario

Fokus

Its All About Me

Ermchtigung des einzelnen Brgers

Its All About Us

Gemeinschaften und wie sie zusammenarbeiten

Trains and other vehicles with brains

Effizienzverbesserung im Verkehr

Connected Brains

Forschung, Ausbildung und Wissen teilen

Health & Happiness

Gesundheit und soziales Wohlbefinden

Renewtopia

Nachhaltigkeit, Energie und Ressourcenmanagement

At a Factory Near You

Produktion der Zukunft

Ein gemeinsames Thema ber alle Szenarien hinweg ist der Bedarf an kleinen, gnstigen
Rechensystemen mit geringem Energiebedarf, die vollverbunden, ich-bewusst, kontextbasiert und
selbst-optimierend innerhalb der Anwendungsgrenzen arbeiten.
Ein wesentliches Element der Wertschpfungskette stellen Software und Programmiermethoden dar.
Dies baut auf Europischen Strken auf. Auerdem ist Europa mit seinem speziellen Knowhow in
industriellen und integrierten Multicore-Systemen gut positioniert, um das Wachstum der fr den
Transfer, die Speicherung und die Analyse von groen Datenmengen in Echtzeit bentigten
Infrastruktur zu frdern. Dies wird das Rckgrat bilden, um das Wachstum des Internet der Dinge und
der nchsten Generation des Cloud Computing zu untersttzen.

NGC Roadmap Study

11

2.2.3 Chancen
In diesem Zusammenhang knnen wir verschiedene Chancen fr die EDV in Europa identifizieren, in
denen Investitionen in Forschung und Entwicklung bedeutenden wirtschaftlichen Vermarktungswert
generieren knnen.
Cyber-physikalische Systeme

Auf bestehenden Strken in integrierten / cyber-physikalischen Systemen aufzubauen und

Forschung in diesem Bereich auszudehnen ermglicht die fortgesetzte Fhrung Europas in
diesem Bereich. Anstrengungen werden auf die Implementierung einer Vision von smarten,
vernetzten, cyber-physikalischen Systemen gebndelt, und zwar auf der Grundlage von
Mehrkern-, Niedrigenergie-Architekturen und getrieben durch inhrent parallele Software.

Software

Forschungsprioritt sollte auf autonomen Systemen liegen gemeinsam mit dynamischer

und konfigurierbarer EDV inklusive kontextabhngiger, selbst-optimierender Software und
zuverlssigen
Systemen. Verstrkte
Anstrengungen
sind
im
Bereich von
Programmiermodellen und Werkzeugen fr die nchste Generation von Systemen ntig
inklusive inhrent paralleler Programmierung und mehrdimensionaler Optimierung (Energie,
Durchsatz, Antwortzeit, Zuverlssigkeit, Ausfallsicherheit). Die Produktivitt auf dem Gebiet
paralleler Softwareentwicklung sollte wesentlich verbessert werden, whrend die
Notwendigkeit fr Programmierer, Kenntnisse in low-level Computerarchitektur und highlevel Anwendungsdomnen zu haben, beschrnkt bleiben sollte. Innovative
Programmiermodelle und -werkzeuge sollten das richtige Abstraktionsniveau zur Verfgung
stellen, um paralleles Programmieren billiger und flexibler zu machen. Dieses Gebiet kann
einen hohen wirtschaftlichen Wert darstellen.

Energie

Europa ist weltweit fhrend auf dem Gebiet der Energieeffizienz. Dies wird eine wesentliche
Anforderung in EDV Systemen der nchsten Generation darstellen. Verbesserungen werden
den gesamten Bereich der EDV betreffen, von Hochleistungs-Datenzentren fr die Nutzung
von Chancen durch Massendaten bis hin zu kleinen Gerten, die in mobilen und integrierten
Anwendungen eingesetzt werden und das Internet der Dinge ermglichen.
Hochleistungsrechnen wird von cyber-physikalischen Systemen bis zu industriellen und
wissenschaftlichen Anwendungen reichen, mit einer Vielzahl an Lsungen, die ber
verschiedene Rechnerleistungsstufen skalierbar sind und zugleich dem Gedanken an
Energieeffizienz gerecht werden. Der wirtschaftliche Wert energieeffizienten Rechnens ist
potenziell sehr hoch, weil dieses Anwendungen ermglicht, die andernfalls in verschiedenen
Gebieten nicht mglich sind, z.B. im Bereich Gesundheit, Umwelt und Automatisierung.

NGC Roadmap Study

12

Interfaces

Fortschrittliche Mensch-Computer Schnittstellen werden immer wichtiger und werden

natrliche und sinnlich stimulierende Schnittstellen ermglichen, wie z.B. mixed-reality
Gerte. Diese Schnittstellen erfordern eine adquat hohe Rechenleistung und
Echtzeitverarbeitung; ntig ist aber auch Forschung im Bereich Gesundheit, des Verhaltens
und der Psychologie, um unser Verhltnis zu dieser neuen allumfassenden Rechnerlandschaft
menschlicher zu machen. In hnlicher Weise bedrfen Fortschritte auf dem Bereich der
Sicherheit jener Rechenleistung, um groe Datenmengen in Echtzeit zu analysieren und so
Bedrohungen zu identifizieren und Gegenmanahmen einzuleiten und um das richtige Ma
an Datenschutz in unterschiedlichen Nutzungsszenarien zu garantieren.

In unserer Welt, in der eine groe Zahl von Daten geteilt und offen frei verfgbar ist, wird es einen
steigenden Bedarf fr Werkzeuge und Methoden geben, um Themen wie Datenschutz und
Datensicherheit anzusprechen. Daten und deren Offenheit, Konsistenz und Regulierung wird ein
Gegenstand von steigender Wichtigkeit sein, der entweder ein wesentlicher Faktor oder eine groe
Barriere fr die effektive Nutzung der EDV der nchsten Generation sein wird. Ein weiteres
Querschnittsthema stellt der Bedarf an interoperablen Schnittstellen fr Daten und Services fr die
Industrie dar, die fr die effektive Entwicklung des Internet fr Alles ntig sind.
Einige andere Gebiete liegen vielleicht auerhalb des anvisierten Zeithorizonts fr diesen Bericht,
haben aber dennoch das Potenzial, Strkrfte fr die EDV der nchsten Generation zu werden:

Quantenrechnen obwohl darber schon seit vielen Jahren gesprochen wird - steckt immer
noch in den Kinderschuhen, hat aber das Potenzial, viele groe Berechnungsprobleme um
Grenordnungen schneller zu lsen als existierende Systeme

Neue Energiequellen, Computerarchitekturen und Energieernte- und Speichersysteme, die es

cyber-physikalischen Systemen erlauben, ber Jahre hinweg ohne Aufladen zu arbeiten; dies
kann zu Revolutionen in Computersystemen fhren und stndig verfgbare Gerte
wirtschaftlich verfgbar machen, und damit die Tr zu neuen Anwendungen ffnen

Intelligente Materialien jenseits implantierbarer und tragbarer Gerte, Technologie wie z.B.
druckbare Elektronik, Biomaterialien und Graphen haben das Potenzial, um sowohl die
Mensch/Maschine Schnittstelle radikal zu verndern als auch die Art, auf die Computer mit
der physischen Welt zusammenarbeiten.

NGC Roadmap Study

13

2.2.4 Politikuntersttzung
Auf politischer Ebene ist die Sicherstellung von Infrastruktur und eines legislativen Rahmens in
Europa ntig, welche die richtigen Bedingungen fr das Aufgreifen von Computertechnologie
sicherstellen.

Es sind einfach verstndliche Regelungen auf dem Gebiete offener Daten, Regulierung,
Datenschutz und Datenaustausch - besonders ber Grenzen hinweg - in Zusammenarbeit
aller involvierten Stakeholder (Brger, lokale und nationale Regierungen, Industrie und
KMUs) zu entwickeln.

Das Internet der Dinge erfordert eine voll vernetzte Gesellschaft. Weitere Arbeiten sind
erforderlich, um den Internetzugang schneller und gnstiger zu machen, insbesondere der
mobile Zugang in ganz Europa. Die hohen Kosten fr die bertragung groer Datenmengen,
die beschrnkte Abdeckung durch schnelle mobile Netze und die Kosten von
grenzberschreitendem Datenroaming stehen nicht mit der Marktentwicklung im Einklang.

Europische Technologie- und Serviceprovider sind gefordert, Technologien ber mehrere

Mrkte hinweg zu verkaufen und untereinander zu teilen, um die Konvergenz zu maximieren
und gemeinsamen Herausforderungen zu begegnen.

Europische Regierungen sollten auf dem Gebiet offener und geteilter Daten mit gutem
Beispiel vorangehen, um so Innovation in Bereichen wie ffentlichen Diensten, Energie,
Umwelt und Gesundheit zu stimulieren indem interoperable Schnittstellen und ein
nachhaltiger Markt fr Dienste gefrdert werden.

Weitere Anstrengungen sind ntig, um ein Innovations-kosystem zu schaffen, das

wissenschaftliche Einrichtungen, Industrie, Unternehmer und Frderorganisationen
zusammenbringt; dies betrifft auch die Zusammenarbeit ber verschiedene Sektoren und
Anwendungen hinweg.

Technologische und gesellschaftliche Vernderungen werden Chancen fr neue Geschftsmodelle

schaffen, mglicherweise basierend auf offener Zusammenarbeit und auf innovativen Arten, die
Akteure in der Wertschpfungskette zusammenzubringen. Die Infrastruktur und der rechtliche
Rahmen mssen in der Lage sein, die Wertschpfung sowohl durch hergebrachte Industrieakteure
als auch durch neue Akteure wie Brger, Nichtregierungsorganisationen, lokale Regierungen,
Prosumer und Kleinstunternehmer zu ermglichen.
Europa ist gut positioniert, um von den Chancen zu profitieren, die sich bieten whrend wir uns hin
zur nchsten Generation von Rechensystemen und die Gesellschaft, die sie mglich macht, bewegen.
Aber die Herausforderungen fr Europa nehmen zu: Es sind gemeinsame Kommunikationsstandards,
Regelungen fr offene und geteilte Daten, nahtlose grenzberschreitende mobile
Telekommunikation und Datenschutz- und Datensicherheitsregeln aufzustellen, welche die
Bedingungen fr die EDV der nchsten Generation und fr florierende Anwendungen schaffen.

NGC Roadmap Study

14

2.3 Rsum analytique

2.3.1 Messages cls
Alors que le paralllisme du matriel informatique est dsormais incontournable, les logiciels
parallles ne le sont toujours pas. Alors que les CPU du commerce sont des processeurs multicurs, le logiciel est encore conu de faon squentielle. La paralllisation des logiciels est trs
coteuse et ncessite des dveloppeurs dots de comptences aussi bien en architecture
informatique que dans le domaine des applications. L'industrie europenne a besoin d'une nouvelle
gnration d'outils de dveloppement logiciel, soutenue par des modles de programmes novateurs.
Les nouveaux outils doivent d'emble tre parallles et garantir l'optimisation des codes
l'excution, en termes de performance, fiabilit, dbit de traitement, temps d'attente et
consommation d'nergie, tout en prsentant le niveau adquat d'abstraction aux dveloppeurs. De
nouveaux modles commerciaux peuvent s'avrer ncessaires pour rendre le dveloppement des
outils de nouvelle gnration conomiquement viable.
Le calcul haute performance au service des systmes cyber-physiques. Dans les industries de
l'automatisation, de l'aronautique et de l'automobile ainsi que dans le secteur manufacturier, les
applications ncessitent des capacits informatiques caractristiques des super ordinateurs d'il y a
quelques annes, mais avec les contraintes de taille, de consommation d'nergie et de temps de
rponse garanti typiques des applications embarques. Il s'agit l d'une opportunit pour dvelopper
sur la base des forces existantes de l'industrie europenne une nouvelle gnration de technologies
novatrices et volutives allant des micro-serveurs embarqus aux grands centres de calcul.
L'Internet des objets se dveloppe de manire acclre. Les applications informatiques combinant
la fois automatisation, traitement en temps rel de gros volumes de donnes, comportement
autonome et trs faible consommation d'nergie permettent de changer le monde physique dans
lequel nous vivons et de crer de nouveaux domaines d'application, l'instar des villes et des
maisons intelligentes , etc. La localisation des donnes devient un facteur important pour
favoriser le dveloppement d'applications multi-chelles permettant le traitement et le partage des
donnes entre les appareils locaux/mobiles et les serveurs bass sur le cloud computing
(informatique en nuage). L'industrie europenne dispose du savoir-faire et des capacits
d'innovation ncessaires pour faire d'elle le leader dans les domaines o les questions relatives aux
interfaces interoprables et aux rgles de confidentialit et de partage des donnes joueront un trs
grand rle dans le dveloppement du march.
2.3.2 Scnarios de l'informatique de nouvelle gnration
Au fil des ans, l'informatique a volu, crant des appareils informatiques mobiles presque
toujours connects et bass sur le web. Dans un avenir proche, on peut s'attendre ce que le
matriel ne devienne qu'un simple produit et que la valeur ajoute rside dans le logiciel, tout
comme dans les donnes qu'il gnre. Ce dluge de donnes ncessitera une infrastructure qui
pourra transfrer et sauvegarder les donnes, ainsi que des systmes informatiques capables
d'analyser et d'extraire en temps rel la valeur de ces donnes. Certains sont d'avis que le secteur
informatique deviendra de plus en plus focalis sur de petits centres informatiques ddis des
applications spcifiques pouvant se connecter entre eux pour offrir des services cibls, et sur des
centres plus grands et plus puissants ncessaires pour l'analyse en temps rel de grands volumes de
donnes.

NGC Roadmap Study

15

Le prsent rapport prsente une vision de l'informatique de nouvelle gnration pour les 10 15
prochaines annes. Il est fond sur un certain nombre de scnarios visionnaires couvrant les
principaux domaines de la vie quotidienne. Partant de ces scnarios, nous prsentons une srie de
feuilles de routes sur les technologies, les dfis qui y sont associs en termes de recherche / de
dveloppement / d'innovation, ainsi que des recommandations pour l'exploitation, par l'Europe, des
opportunits offertes par la prochaine gnration de l'informatique.
Des intervenants de toute lEurope ont t impliqus dans cette tude, par le biais de contacts
directs et via deux sminaires, afin de valider et d'affiner les recommandations dcoulant de cette
tude.
Sept scnarios ont t minutieusement labors dans le cadre de la rsolution des principaux
problmes sociaux et conomiques. En dcrivant l'volution de l'informatique dans chacun des
scnarios, nous avons pu prsenter un ensemble de besoins technologiques qui, compte tenu des
forces et faiblesses actuelles de l'Europe dans le domaine de l'informatique, peuvent se traduire par
des dfis auxquels l'Europe est confronte en matire de recherche et d'innovation, et par des
possibilits de cration de valeur pour l'industrie europenne.
Tableau 3: Aperu des scnarios

Nom du scenario

Centre dintrt

Its All About Me (Il ne sagit que de moi)

Renforcement de lautonomie du citoyen

Its All About Us (Il ne sagit que de nous)

Communauts et leurs modes de collaboration

Trains and other vehicles with brains (Transport et

trains intelligents)

Rendre les transports plus efficaces

Connected Brains (Cerveaux connects)

Recherche,
ducation
connaissances

Health & Happiness (Sant et Bonheur)

Sant et bien-tre social

Renewtopia

Viabilit, gestion de lnergie et des ressources

At a Factory Near You (Dans une usine prs de vous)

Fabrication dans lavenir

et

partage

des

L'un des thmes communs tous les scnarios est la ncessit de petits systmes informatiques peu
coteux et faible consommation nergtique, entirement interconnects, sensibles au contexte et
capables d'auto-optimisation dans les limites de lapplication.
Un lment important de la chane de valeur rside dans le logiciel et les mthodes de
programmation, bass sur les forces existantes de l'Europe. En plus, avec un savoir-faire exceptionnel
dans le domaine des systmes multi-curs industriels et intgrs, l'Europe est bien place pour
favoriser le dveloppement des infrastructures ncessaires au transfert, la sauvegarde et
l'analyse en temps rel de gros volumes de donnes. Ceci constituera l'ossature de la mise en place
de l Internet des objets et du cloud computing (informatique en nuage) de nouvelle gnration.

NGC Roadmap Study

16

2.3.3 Domaines d'opportunits

Dans ce contexte, nous pouvons identifier plusieurs domaines d'opportunits en matire
d'informatique en Europe, dans lesquels l'investissement dans la recherche et le dveloppement
peut gnrer une valeur conomique considrable.
Systmes cyber-physiques

L'utilisation des forces existantes dans le domaine des systmes embarqus / systmes
cyber-physiques et l'intensification des recherches dans ce domaine permettront l'Europe
de garder son leadership. Les efforts seront concentrs sur la mise en uvre d'une vision de
systmes cyber-physiques en rseau, intelligents, bass sur des architectures multi-curs
faible consommation fonctionnant avec des logiciels parallles natifs.

Logiciel

Les priorits de recherche doivent inclure les systmes autonomes ainsi que l'informatique
dynamique et reconfigurable, y compris les systmes sensibles au contexte, auto-optimisants
et fiables. De grands efforts doivent tre raliss dans le cadre des modles et outils de
programmation pour les systmes de nouvelle gnration, notamment dans la
programmation parallle et l'optimisation multidimensionnelle (nergie, dbit de traitement,
temps de rponse, fiabilit, rsilience). La productivit en matire de dveloppement de
logiciels parallles doit tre considrablement amliore, rduisant ainsi le besoin pour les
dveloppeurs d'tre qualifis aussi bien en architecture des ordinateurs que dans le domaine
des applications de haut niveau. Les modles et outils de programmation novateurs doivent
apporter le niveau d'abstraction adquat pour faire de la programmation parallle une
activit moins coteuse et plus flexible. Ce domaine sera probablement d'une valeur
conomique considrable.

nergie

L'Europe est un leader mondial en termes d'efficacit nergtique, principale exigence pour
l'informatique de nouvelle gnration. Des progrs seront apports sur l'ensemble du
continuum de l'informatique, allant des centres de calcul haute performance ncessaires
l'exploitation des opportunits offertes par les gros volumes de donnes, aux petits appareils
informatiques utiliss pour les applications mobiles et embarques alimentant l'Internet des
objets. Le calcul haute performance va stendre des systmes cyber-physiques aux
applications industrielles et scientifiques, avec un ventail de solutions utilisant diffrents
niveaux de puissance de calcul, mais ayant en commun les proccupations lies l'efficacit
nergtique. La valeur conomique de l'informatique co-nergtique est potentiellement
trs leve, car elle permet de nouvelles applications dans divers domaines, tels que la sant,
l'environnement et l'automatisation.

NGC Roadmap Study

17

Interfaces informatiques

Le perfectionnement des interfaces homme-machine sera d'une importance considrable et

rendra possible des interfaces naturelles et immersives, tels que les priphriques de ralit
augmente. Ces interfaces ncessiteront une puissance de calcul leve et en temps rel,
tout comme des recherches dans le domaine de la sant, de la psychologie et du
comportement, afin d'humaniser notre relation avec ce nouveau paysage de l'informatique
omniprsente. De mme, les progrs raliser en matire de scurit ncessiteront des
capacits informatiques pour l'analyse en temps rel de grands volumes de donnes, en vue
d'identifier les menaces, de prendre les mesures correctives ncessaires, et de garantir le
niveau appropri de confidentialit des donnes dans les diffrents domaines d'utilisation.

Dans ce monde dot de grands volumes de donnes partages et librement accessibles, le besoin en
outils et mthodes de rsolution des questions lies la confidentialit et la scurit s'avrera
considrable. Les donnes, ainsi que leur disponibilit, cohrence et gouvernance, deviendront un
domaine de haute importance qui sera soit un catalyseur cl, soit un obstacle notoire pour
l'exploitation effective de l'informatique de nouvelle gnration. Un autre domaine intersectoriel
sera la ncessit d'interfaces interoprables pour les donnes et services l'chelle industrielle,
lment cl du dveloppement effectif de l' Internet des objets .
Il existe galement plusieurs autres domaines qui sont sans doute en dehors des dlais spcifis dans
le prsent rapport, mais qui ont nanmoins le potentiel de devenir des forces perturbatrices pour
l'informatique de nouvelle gnration.

Linformatique quantique bien que dbattue depuis de nombreuses annes - en est encore
ses dbuts, mais offre des perspectives prometteuses, pour rsoudre des problmes
informatiques d'envergure, plusieurs ordres de grandeur plus rapide que les systmes
existants.

De nouvelles sources d'nergie, de nouvelles architectures informatiques et de nouveaux

systmes de production et de stockage d'nergie permettront aux systmes cyber-physiques
de fonctionner pendant des annes sans avoir besoin d'tre rechargs. Ceci aura un impact
rvolutionnaire sur l'informatique, rendra conomiquement viables les dispositifs always
on ( connexion permanente) et ouvrira la porte des applications novatrices.

Matriaux intelligents : au-del de l'informatique vestimentaire et implantable, des

technologies l'instar des systmes lectroniques imprims, des biomatriaux et des
graphnes sont capables de changer radicalement aussi bien l'interface homme-machine que
la manire dont les ordinateurs communiquent avec le monde physique.

NGC Roadmap Study

18

2.3.4 Appui des politiques

Au niveau des politiques, beaucoup doit tre fait afin d'assurer que les infrastructures et le cadre
lgislatif en Europe fournissent les meilleures conditions pour l'adoption des technologies
informatiques.

Des politiques faciles comprendre relatives l'ouverture, la gouvernance, la confidentialit

et le partage des donnes, particulirement au-del des frontires, doivent tre mises en
place avec la collaboration de tous les acteurs concerns (citoyens, gouvernements locaux et
nationaux, industries, PME).

L' Internet des objets ncessite une socit entirement connecte et des efforts
supplmentaires sont ncessaires pour rendre l'Internet haut dbit moins coteux et
accessible, particulirement pour l'Internet mobile dans toute l'Europe. Les cots levs des
transferts de grands volumes de donnes, la couverture limite des rseaux mobiles haut
dbit et le cot des services de donnes en itinrance ne sont pas compatibles avec le
dveloppement de ce march.

Les fournisseurs de technologie et de services europens doivent tre encourags dans la

pratique des ventes croises et le partage des technologies dans plusieurs marchs, afin de
maximiser la convergence et de faire face aux dfis communs.

Les gouvernements europens doivent montrer l'exemple dans le domaine de l'ouverture et

du partage des donnes, de manire stimuler l'innovation dans des secteurs tels que les
services publics, l'nergie, l'environnement et la sant, en promouvant des interfaces
interoprables et un march durable pour les services.

Des efforts supplmentaires sont ncessaires pour la mise en place d'un cosystme
novateur qui rassemblera monde universitaire, industrie, entrepreneurs et organismes de
financement, tout en prenant en compte la collaboration intersectorielle / inter-applicative.

Les changements technologiques et socitaux offriront des opportunits pour de nouveaux modles
d'entreprises, probablement bass sur une collaboration ouverte et sur des mthodes novatrices de
connexion des acteurs de la chane de valeur. Les infrastructures et le cadre lgislatif doivent tre en
mesure de prendre en charge et de favoriser la cration de valeur, aussi bien par les acteurs
industriels traditionnels que par de nouveaux acteurs, comme les citoyens, les organisations but
non lucratif, les gouvernements locaux, les prosommateurs et les micro-entreprises.
L'Europe est bien place pour tirer profit des opportunits qui se prsenterons au fur et mesure
que nous avancerons vers l'informatique de nouvelle gnration et vers la socit qu'elle engendra.
Toutefois, l'Europe sera confronte un dfi majeur dans la mise en place de normes de
communication communes, dune politique sur les donnes ouvertes et partages, de services de
tlcommunication mobile transfrontaliers uniformiss ainsi que de mesures de scurit et de
confidentialit, qui, ensemble, promouvront le contexte ncessaire l'informatique de nouvelle
gnration, ainsi que ses applications.

NGC Roadmap Study

19

3 Background and Methodology

3.1 Background
Computing is undergoing a significant transformation. The chart below provides a progressive view of
computing from 1970 to 2020. This illustrates the evolution of different aspects of computing such
as hardware, software, service, connectivity, among others, and in light of the governing megatrends
and business models.

Figure 1: The Evolution of Computing

This figure demonstrates that computing is moving towards an always connected, ubiquitous
networked society where citizens work collaboratively, have access to low cost and low power
hardware and can customize their software and apps to meet their own needs. As such we are now
living in the era of personalised smart computing where tablets, smartphones and other connecting
devices take center stage. Additionally, the business models of the computing industry are also
undergoing transformation, as there is a significant shift towards a service oriented approach rather
than direct sales.
Paradoxically, of the major changes in ICT research and its increasingly pervasive nature can
sometimes hinder a clear view of where the grand challenges are and how the future may look.
Although computing has undergone dramatic developments and radical changes in the last years
there is no reason to believe that its dynamics will decelerate any time soon. Computing benefits
from recent advances in nanotechnology, photonics, biochemistry and other disciplines, but it is also
a major driver behind these fields.
This facilitates the continued emergence of new generations of components and systems including
new and unconventional approaches of a breakthrough character.

NGC Roadmap Study

20

Moreover, computing related research is not limited to the ICT sector itself but rather widely spread
among other industries, scientific fields and technologies and in addition linked to radical new ideas,
future technologies and breakthrough/frontier research. From decoding the DNA to simulations in
particle physics, computing has become a major driver behind scientific knowledge itself. This
emphasises the importance of ICT research in general and research on the future of computing in
particular.
The last 40 years have been a golden era for computing; processing, connectivity and storage have all
undergone relentless growth in capability and performance, while getting cheaper to procure. The
impact in economic and societal terms has been profound, and has raised high expectations among
the population at large. We are however reaching an inflection point. The technologies that underpin
ICT are reaching fundamental limits that will have a profound impact on our ability to make progress,
while demand for more performance and capability increases steeply.

3.2 Methodology
The methodology is designed to provide a technology roadmap for next generation computing (NGC)
that will help to direct the research themes within Horizon 2020. The methodology, the aggregation
of information and coverage of various input sources - expert workshops, stakeholder interviews,
online questionnaire, desk research, SWOT analysis, value chain analysis etc. is structured into
work packages as depicted in Figure 2: Methodology and Work package overview. Four main work
packages are driving the study: consultation, analysis, forecast and strategy. The process flow of
interconnecting existing data, various input sources and analysis parts is depicted in Figure 3 and
described thereafter.
Throughout the course of the study we conducted desk research. This literature review supported
the market and SWOT analysis, identification of stakeholders, understanding of supply and value
chains, provided forecasts of existing and future services and applications and also suggested
potential scenarios. To validate the findings from market data and to explore the computing
landscape further, we conducted a number of stakeholder interviews with industry, technology
industry, academia and RTDI programme managers. The interviews were semi-structured and the
discussion focussed on:

Market trends and disruptive innovations

Game changing products and services
Future competitive strategies
Unsatisfied needs
European strengths and weaknesses
Industry ecosystems
Collaboration and cooperative competition

We further conducted in-depth interviews with stakeholders that were primarily small and medium
businesses with headquarters based in Europe. The stakeholders had the following areas of
expertise:

Datacentres (facilities & technologies)

Cloud Computing,
Telecommunications & Mobile Computing
Hardware, Systems & Servers
Virtualisation
Software (enterprise, proprietary, open source, simulation & visualisation)
Energy efficiency

NGC Roadmap Study

21

The interviews supported the identification of stakeholders, value chains and supply chains across a
range of associated industries, forecast of existing services and future services, SWOT analysis and
research and innovation challenges.

Verification
Interviews

Online Survey

Workshop 1

Workshop 2

Industry Interviews

Desk Research

RTD Programme Mgrs

Academic interviews

Industry Technology Interviews

Academic Interviews
TECHNOLOGY

INDUSTRY

DEMAND & EVOLUTION

WP 2 Analysis

Key stake holders

and market players

Forecase of Existing Services

Future Applications

TECHNOLOGY

Supply and value chain

Technology Needs

Visionary Application Scenarios

WP 3 Forecast

WP 1 Consultation

KEY

Strengths of European Countries

(research & funding)

POLICY

WP 4 Strategy

S+W

European SWOT Analysis

O+T

Research, Development and Innovation (RDI) Challenges

Programme Scenarios (5) plus roadmaps

Figure 2: Methodology and Work package overview

We also conducted an online survey. The purpose of the survey was to reach a broader audience
than the interviews, and presented respondents with an opportunity have their say on what is
important for computing in Europe over the next ten years and beyond.
The survey was completed by 173 respondents. The majority were from research/academic
institutions (82%), and describe their organisations as European (50%). The respondents report that
they support software (70%) and consultancy (65%) (more details can be found in the appendix
online questionnaire).
Workshops were also completed to validate findings and were one of the key elements of the
comparative analysis of potential options for a roadmap-based initiative on next generation
computing. The first workshop pursued two main objectives:
1. The discussion of computing related mega trends that are most likely to shape the future of
computing
2. The development of several visionary scenarios.

NGC Roadmap Study

22

31 delegates attended the first workshop and were from both industrial and research organisations.
The workshop was very much an active and participatory led workshop and the goal of the plenary
session was to discuss uncertainties for the next 10 years.
Breakout groups were established: one group focused on megatrends and three additional groups
focused on sketching scenarios that were influenced by the plenary discussion. The study team used
the outcomes of the workshop to design visionary scenarios for next generation computing.
The aim of the second workshop was to finalise the visionary scenarios, describe next generation
computing, draft research and technology requirements and collect expert stakeholder views on a
research roadmap that will prepare Europe for the future.

Figure 3: Methodological process

The outcome of the introduced instruments such as desk research, interviews, online questionnaire,
expert workshops, etc. was the base for being able to construct scenarios of the future and
corresponding roadmaps as well as to present recommendations for future work programme foci as
presented in the succeeding sections. For additional and more detailed information on the outcome
of the introduced modules please also refer to the annex document.

NGC Roadmap Study

23

4 Scenarios of the Future

4.1 Background
In this section we present selected visions of the future to illustrate how next generation computing
might enable applications in various walks of life. The purpose of this exercise is to deduce the RTDI
challenges that would have to be overcome if the scenarios are to be realised. The scenarios are
based on known current technology and market trends, but also inspired by some degree of
imagination (as is essential when thinking about the future). There is the assumption that new and
potentially disruptive technology can be developed and will find applications of the future. There is
overlap between the scenarios, which is to be expected if there are to be in any way realistic.
The scenarios should therefore not be thought of as strong predictions of the future, nor as the ideal
towards which we should be aiming, but rather as a vehicle for us to understand the potential for
NGC in a variety of contexts, and as a tool to identify important RTDI topics
The scenarios we have constructed are as follows:

The Digital Citizen: Its all about me. This scenario is focussed on the individual as a
consumer of digital services in the future.

The Digital Nation: Its all about us. This scenario is focussed on the responsibilities of a
nation state and how these could be affected by NGC.

Intelligent Transport: Trains and other vehicles with brains. This scenario deals with
intelligent transport from the user and provider viewpoints.

Education and Research: Connected brains. This scenario investigates how NGC will enable
new modes of research and learning.

Future Healthcare: Health and happiness in the digital age. This scenario deals with the
provision of healthcare from both the patient and provider viewpoints.

Living with scarce resources: Renewtopia. This scenario covers the general trend of scarcity
of resources, in particular energy, with a special emphasis on renewable energy, its
generation, storage and use, and how these will both drive NGC and open up application
areas that are enabled by NGC.

Future Manufacturing: At a factory near you. This scenario is one view of how
manufacturing could change in the future, the opportunities for NGC to facilitate those
changes and the associated challenges.

4.2 Megatrends and scenario coverage

When developing the scenarios, we took into account governing megatrends, as well as more specific
technology trends. Intelligence gained through in-depth interviews, desk research and online surveys
revealed the following technology trends (see also annex document):

More with less - density, energy and cost

Software driven world

Cloud and hybrid

NGC Roadmap Study

24

Mobile computing and Internet of Things

Open and build your own approaches

Converged and integrated systems

In addition to these technology trends there are more generic, global and interrelated trends that
will influence future developments. These include:

Demographic change, a notable example being the growth in the proportion of older people
in developed economies.

Increased urbanisation.

Greater mobility of the population.

Scarcity of resource such as materials, water, energy and viable agricultural land.

Climate change as a result of mankinds activities.

Rapidly evolving business models

How the scenarios were designed around these technological and more general megatrends to cover
political, economic, societal and technological areas and challenges is depicted in Figure 4. By
covering various areas and being based on the outcome of the various instruments used in this study
the scenarios are representing a broad range of future applications and technology areas.

Figure 4 Scenarios are designed to cover various areas

NGC Roadmap Study

25

4.3 The Digital Citizen: Its all about me

This scenario is driven by an increasingly mobile and (almost) permanently on-line population
demanding a personalised digital experience and control of their privacy. Digital citizens will expect
information and services available to enrich their lives they expect the cyber landscape to work for
them, help them, make them feel safe and secure, and that opens up opportunities. They do not
expect it to be intrusive, nor feel as if it is running their lives. They enjoy control and personalisation
of their digital experience. Some of their interaction with the digital landscape is direct, by means of
a personal device, and some is ambient through devices, sensors and interfaces that are built into
the environment. The key aspect of the digital citizen of the futures interactions is that they can
control their experience and privacy. For example the digital citizen may expect to have the right to
be digitally forgotten in other words for some or all of their online activity to leave no permanent
record, and to be informed if there is a breach of their privacy.
4.3.1 The Scenario
The citizens of the future expect to be connected at all times to online services and information. They
will expect their connectivity to be continuous and seamless as they move around. The idea of having
to find somewhere with WI-FI connectivity or worrying about roaming charges is outdated and alien.
Connection to the future Internet is cheap, reliable, ubiquitous and invisible.
The digital citizens are sensitive to the price of services and are confident and able to compare and
select services. They have become conscious of lock-in, and seek services and systems that they can
switch between easily. They are security conscious but not paranoid. They are the successor to the
first generation of mobile internet users, for whom novelty was a selling point. The citizens of 2020
and beyond look more directly for benefits and costs of the services and systems that they use. They
have almost no tolerance of services that are unreliable.
Services that enhance quality of life and leisure time will be in high-demand, with gaming likely to
continue as a massive market that will drive many aspects of technology from components, software,
displays and augmented reality.
Their position in the value chain is both as consumer of services, and generators of data. The latter
may be directly by sharing a wide range of assets such as photos, restaurant reviews, creative works
and so on, and also indirectly by allowing profile data to be collected and used by third parties.
Willingness to allow such profile information to be gathered will be variable among users; some will
value privacy highly, while others are willing to exchange access to their profile data in exchange, say,
for lower price services.
4.3.2 Application example: The Smart Stadium
The way in which the digital citizen interacts with the cyber landscape can be illustrated by
envisaging the future digital citizen at a stadium attending a major sporting event.
You arrive at the stadium, where you are directed by a smart system run by the stadium to the right
entrance. The stadium can identify that you have arrived because you have allowed it to recognise
your smartphone (or something else that you carry) when you are in range of its network. Your social
network, which you have also allowed to know your location, looks up whether any of your friends
are also at the event, and informs you. It suggests that you have time to meet at the bar beforehand.

NGC Roadmap Study

26

You tell the social network that you prefer to wait until half-time, and the social network, knowing
your preferences, reserves a space at the bar easiest to get to from where you are all sitting and lets
your friends know the plan.
The stadium confirms the validity of your virtual ticket and you are allowed into the stadium. You are
credited with access to commentaries, replays, highlights and analysis as standard. You can upgrade
to premium services if you wish (some stadiums even have fleets of mini drones carrying tiny HD
video cameras that you can try out, but you think this is a bit of a gimmick. Instead you prefer to use
the camera-net application that allows you to see the views from other peoples devices in return for
allowing the same on your phone for other users). If you dont have an account with the company
that runs these additional services, your software agent suggests (via your smartphone) a range of
additional services that you might want as a pay as you go option. As a digital citizen you have
become used to this business model of a personal software agent suggesting what you might be
interested in, and paying for things electronically. The payments are authorised using biometrics,
either using a device you carry or a mobile paypoint in the stadium. Behind the scenes your bank is
running complex anti-fraud software to protect both you and itself against cyber-crime. This has
become increasingly important as so many transactions are done electronically from customers on
the move. Cash still persists, because its anonymity still has attractions, but digital payments are by
far the dominant type.

Your seat environment contains all you need to enjoy the event, including digital glasses and headset
that allow you to access the match programme, camera views and commentary, depending on your
viewing package. Of course you can easily use your own display glasses if you want to (around you a
few people can even be seen with old-style tablets).
Its easy to set up the commentary you want and the viewing angles you might want to have as
shortcuts. The system allows you to simulate a few views so that you can tune them and quickly
switch as the game progresses. This is important, as even though you are surrounded by all this
technology and you expect everything to be personalised, its a real match with a real ball played at

NGC Roadmap Study

27

real speed. The real-time experience is still the main part of the occasion and the technology has to
be up to the job.
At half-time you join your friends at the bar for that meeting suggested by your social network. Your
social network realises that you have made the meeting together, and suggests that, since it knows
its been a long time since you last time met face to face, you might want it to make a dinner
reservation according to your group preferences. You are comfortable with this type of interaction
with social networks, provided you have control over levels of privacy and the level of interaction.
Software companies have invested heavily in designing agents that will act on your behalf there is
big money to be made from this.
After the match finishes, the stadium empties efficiently. The designers used complex simulations of
the physical design and information systems, coupled with varying models of crowd behaviour to
come up with a stadium that allow efficient and safe movement of people. Simulations are also
carried out in real time to ensure that safety problems will not arise.
Outside the stadium a pool of self-driving electric cars is available, some owned by the stadium and
some by taxi firms. The queues are managed efficiently, and a car is chosen for you depending on
how quickly you need to get to your destination and whether you are willing to share. Payments are
all made automatically. The traffic management in the stadium vicinity has been switched to a mode
to cope with the traffic volume at the stadium. The traffic management system knows about the
destination of each vehicle and directs each one accordingly, optimising the flow. Priority routes are
available to those who can afford it and the traffic management system deals with all the
authentication and authorisation issues. All this is unobtrusive; each vehicle receives its route
instructions directly and in real-time, whether it is in self-driving mode or being driven by a human
(which still happens, but is becoming increasingly rare).
As you approach your home, your home management system knows you are arriving and starts the
utilities it can predict that you will need (bearing in mind it already knows about your possible dinner
arrangement). You gain access to your house using a biometric based security system, and tell your
personal software agent to confirm the dinner idea it suggested earlier. Your agent knows that you
live within walking distance of the down-town restaurant it has reserved and knows that you like to
walk, so it tells you that it will just arrange a taxi home. As you prepare to leave, the agent politely
reminds you that rain is forecast later, so taking an umbrella might be a sensible idea.

4.4 The Digital Nation: Its all about us

The scenario describes the interactions between individual and society (other individuals) and the
state (national and EU government, law enforcement etc). The states responsibilities clearly
interface to other areas such as education, healthcare and transport where state and private sector
begin to overlap.
4.4.1 The Scenario
Governments will be replacing as much paperwork as possible with digital services. Smart
environments will be prevalent (smart city, road, etc). Some members of society see this as a benefit,
offering opportunities, information and security. For others it is seen as intrusive, invasive and
untrustworthy. Privacy issues will be a major issue.
Some citizens may resort to ways of subverting what they see as surveillance. The state may choose
to outlaw some of these methods which may create further tensions.

NGC Roadmap Study

28

Governments will appreciate that infrastructure projects will probably have greatest value if they can
interact. The providers will need to develop interoperable services which will require common
standards to be used, and which will require data-integration technologies. The service providers will
drive the technology needs to be able to provide the services in a cost effective way.
States will of course out-source many of these services. Government contractors (especially in IT) do
not have a good reputation. Uptake of the services may be tarnished by this populations may
decide they dont trust them before they have even been rolled out.
Defence is an area where governments will need NCG to support conventional defence systems and
digital threats. Major defence companies are likely to continue to be recipients of considerable
investment for research. NCG will be needed both in the deployments (for example missile guidance
and detection) and in the design tools used (for example HPC simulation tools).
The need to defend against cyber-attacks may change the defence policy of states significantly.
Whereas the digital criminals will generally be aiming to accumulate wealth through illegal means,
cyber-attacks will be aimed at causing damage and disruption to national infrastructure. Sources of
attack will include full scale attack by another state (unlikely), attack by terrorist/activist groups
(highly likely) and the low-level hacker (the digital equivalent of graffiti, and an ever-present threat).
Resilience against attacks will need to be an inherent property of all services and infrastructures,
whether state maintained or not. Monitoring networks and detecting threats will be a major activity
of the defence and security services
There may be a demand for personal encryption systems. Management of encryption keys is the
main issue here: webs of trust may evolve. Centralised Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) may not be
regarded as secure by some privacy activists since the roots of trust might be seen as capable of
being influenced, for example by government or big business. The proportion of people who
understand the issues well is likely to be small, but how people will react will affect how
governments can use NGC. Anonymity will still be attractive (cash for example will still be in use).
NGC will be important in education in two ways; to enable advanced teaching methods and as a
subject in itself. We have relied to date on life experience of using ICT; this should be taught properly
to the next generation of students. Schools will be high-tech places with NCG used for many aspects
of learning. Informed decision making, particularly about the realities of security, will help define the
future use of digital marketplace and services.
States will want to find a way to raise money from the new technologies and the economic activities
they stimulate, but will want to do so without stifling economic growth or alienating consumers.
Tax systems will come under scrutiny, as they have not caught up with modern ways of business.
Companies have been criticised by using loopholes to avoid paying tax, and in the digital era this
appears to be too easy for them. They will continue to do this, obviously.
Governments will also want to use NCG to have a more productive workforce by enabling those who
are currently not economically active to become so (for example more part time work for disabled,
pensioners, part time workers, those in remote areas etc.). They are likely to do this by providing
incentives for individuals and service providers (for example for getting good internet access into
remote areas, providing training etc).
One of the assets managed by the state is the electromagnetic spectrum. Licensing of this can raise
money for states; conditions on the licensing deals can ensure that the licensees (for example

NGC Roadmap Study

29

telecommunication companies) make the best use of it for national benefit, and do not squat. There
need to be incentives (or laws) to ensure that operators use or lose their bandwidth.
4.4.2 Application example: Emergency response
A fire starts in a major public place, in this example a shopping complex. Within the complex, an
intelligent network of sensors detects the outbreak of fire and track its progress. The network is
installed and operated by a private company, but is subject to health and safety regulation part of
which requires it to interact with public emergency services.

When the public emergency response services are alerted, they immediately create an incident
management centre to control the operation. The computing and communications infrastructures
must allow for a control centre to be set up almost instantaneously to access the data and
networking. Emergency teams would need to be able to predict the progress of the fire, which would
need data on the buildings to be instantly accessible from a database, simulation tools and the
necessary computing power, and the ability to rapidly evaluate different courses of action.
The emergency response team is able to evaluate different strategies to carry out an effective
evacuation and to tackle the fire. This will be made possible by the use of advanced simulation tools
together with HPC available on demand.
A key issue in managing the emergency will be the ability to detect and track people. Technologies
to do so for their own security would be useful however there are potentially massive privacy
issues. Locating people through their smart phone or other device might be possible, but mandating
that people always carry such a device for safety reasons would likely be impractical and would
attract fierce opposition from many citizens.
Sensor technology that could detect whether people were trapped inside the building without
needing any identity information is more likely to be used in the relief effort.

NGC Roadmap Study

30

Control and management systems for other infrastructure (for example public transport) would need
to interface with the emergency teams so that contingent disruption could be managed. Some of
these infrastructures will be privately operated, requiring interaction between public and private
systems.
4.4.3 Application example: Cyber-crime prevention
Digital crime will increase in the future. Fraudulent on-line transactions may replace burglary as the
crime the public fears. Public will demand that devices such as phones, laptops etc (which we will
most likely still be using) are not useful to criminals if stolen and do not pose risk to the owners if lost.
In other words, theft of a phone or other personal device should not mean the thief can impersonate
you on-line.
Theft of data will be as serious a crime as a theft of tangible assets or money. This will apply to
individuals as well as companies and government. It will be unrealistic to assume that intrusion will
not happen, and perimeter models of security will be outdated. Intrusion detection will need to be
highly sophisticated.
Major international cybercrime organisations will exist in the future. There will need to be a big
effort on international (and pan European) efforts to detect and prevent crime. State will drive the
need for technologies that will support this. Cyber-crime prevention will require advanced methods
of analysing behaviour to detect potential criminal activity. This will need major advances in
modelling and simulation software, high performance computing and data analysis tools to detect
intrusion, together with encryption technologies easily usable by the public to limit unauthorised use
of data.
Some technologies that will be needed in preventing crime may also be of use to the criminals
themselves (face and image recognition, software to analyse behaviour etc). There may be a need to
licence some these technologies. Enforcing this will be a challenge.
The public needs to be educated about digital security and good practice needs to be understood.
This education process will need to start at an early age schools will include this in the curriculum
with the same level of importance that road safety had in the 1970s.

4.5 Intelligent Transport: Trains and other Vehicles with Brains

Future transport systems will need to be used much more efficiently in a response to increasing
energy costs and the need to use existing infrastructures more efficiently, together with the demand
for more travel as populations become ever more mobile. This scenario deals with the situation as it
may be after 2020, under the influence of these megatrends.
4.5.1 The Scenario
Until around 2020 the railroad system was used very inefficiently. Although the railroads had a huge
coverage over Europe, the concepts and technologies were not forward looking enough until pushed
forward in 2015 by initiatives from the EC.
Up to 2015 the basic concept of using railways had not changed since its invention. In comparison to
roads, railways were used very differently and sparsely, for example regarding train length in relation
to unused rail length in front and behind a train.

NGC Roadmap Study

31

With the help of massive research programmes CPS and HPC approaches were developed that
allowed a denser and on-demand usage of railroads. Today the autonomous trains featuring
powerful sensors and fulfilling high security standards are being able to do their own planning, are
able to communicate with each other and with several control instances to realise a seamless cooperation with autonomous cars and other vehicles.
4.5.2 Application examples: Business trip of the future
Stephanie needs to make a spontaneous business trip to a partner company which is 450 km away.
Five minutes after deciding to meet her business partner in person she talks to her personal assistant
avatar which she can see through her digital glasses. Her digital assistant starts to send requests to
an international broker service, and starts to plan possible travel options. Since Stephanie needs to
take a demonstrator weighting approx. 23 kg with her, the assistant neglects public transport options.
Due to the urgency and time constraints, the assistant checks all other options for leaving the highdensity traffic zone of the city even though it is aware that Stephanie usually prefers to avoid shared
car options.

Having worked out some options for the main part of the journey, Stephanies assistant avatar
communicates with a local transportation broker, which in turn broadcasts the transportation
request to pick-up vehicles in the area around the company. These autonomously driving cars are
operated and maintained by private companies. The vehicles calculate the costs for a detour to pickup a person at Stephanies company. Each estimate is done in real time, and has limited validity. The
cars are programmed to gain the maximum profit without delaying the ride for the passengers that
are already on board. It is crucial that they do an excellent job in calculating the risk and the
estimated energy consumption of taking a detour versus bringing their passengers already on board
to their target locations in time.

NGC Roadmap Study

32

Using the low latency wireless megacities network (LLWMC) twelve vehicles reply to the broker
including their bid to take the passenger and the desired target zones they are heading for. The
broker forwards the offers to Stephanies assistant avatar, and they become the base for further
calculations. Having a number of options for the initial part of the journey, the assistant starts
planning the next sections of the trip. Three target zones are in the medium density traffic zones
providing good starting points to far distance transportation vehicles.
Since the final target - the company that Stephanie is going to visit - is in the countryside in a remote
location, the availability of local vehicles is very low during business hours. Therefore the plan is to
find a vehicle that is available for the rest of the day. Eight available vehicles are offered from three
different providers via the vehicle auctions system CARbay. Four of them are close to the end of the
auction, which allows a decision to be received in a short time frame. The digital assistant enters the
auction based on its implemented and up-to-date company policy rules and is successful in grabbing
a car for the rest of the day.
The final part of planning the trip is to optimise the remaining 400km. To do so, the digital assistant
directly connects to the control and navigation system of the car using the secure passphrase that is
valid through the time of the rent. It deploys an optimisation task by handing over the target, the
estimated payload, the preferences of Stephanie and the policies of the company. The car takes over
the task of finding a route based on its charging level, cruising range, traffic announcements,
charging stations including todays energy rates, the estimated payload and many other variables.
The car starts to broadcast requests using the local zone broker service to find other cars with similar
target zones for teaming up to use a shared train ride.
Starting from a group of 8 cars there is a chance to order one of the autonomous car trains. After a
few moments enough cars acknowledged which triggers the broadcast to the wide zone broker
service (w-ETTBS). Similar to the mentioned shared car services the trains are operated by private
companies and able to plan their trips based on energy prices, maintenance cycles, available routes,
traffic status, etc. and are replying with their offers. If there are similar replies the ETTBS starts with a
mini auction where the cars are included that are acting in that case as representatives of the
interests of their passengers, for example I want to be there in time despite the costs vs it should
be economical, I am in no hurry.
Due to high bandwidth communications and powerful on-board multi core brains of the autonomous
vehicles as well as the HPC centres running the ETTBS the whole planning process took only 55
seconds.
Stephanie takes her coat and enters the pick-up vehicle followed by the autonomous transportation
trolley carrying the 23kg demonstrator she wants to show her business partner. She leans back and
starts to review her prepared presentation on her foldable and lightweight screen foil.

4.6 Education and Research: Connected brains

Research and development are undergoing significant changes and the need to innovate our
education systems is almost universally acknowledged. An important megatrend driving
development in research and development is the shift towards a post-scientific society in which the
focus is on the development of novel services and products and thus on innovation. Individualization
is a major trend in all modern market economies. With people looking for individualised solutions to
their demands, the role of large markets in countries such as Brazil and China will continue to remain
important.

NGC Roadmap Study

33

This is a direct consequence of a globalised economy, but also of the global power shift to new and
emerging markets in Asia and other regions of the world.
Changing demographics is also driving the need to improve the ways in which we create innovation
and the ways to educate the young but also ensure life-long learning for everybody. It will be
important to ensure proper education opportunities not only in increasingly urbanised areas, but
also in the more sparsely populated countryside where internet connectivity may remain significantly
lower.
Future researchers and scientists will rely on a rich set of tools for scientific discovery, collaborative
working, research and innovation management. This scenario presents a vision of the future in which
researchers collaborate on a massive international scale, driven by the trends described above and
enabled by next generation computing.
4.6.1 The Scenario
Researchers in 2020 and beyond can quickly access a large variety of data repositories. Intuitive user
interfaces support dynamic interactions with the data in an intuitive fashion to quickly find the
answer to What if? questions or to discover new hypotheses. The scientist of the future can rely on
a set of powerful computing resources that are dynamically reconfigured in response to changing
load requirements. Tools are capable of finding a balance between prime services as a price premium,
economic services with reduced data size or resolution and delayed services (overnight etc.)
Data acquisition in laboratories happens to a large extent automatically with the help of robots and
intelligent systems for data collection, validation, formatting and evaluation. Systems are able to
detect anomalies and novelty in the data.
Researchers easily run simulations before and after real-world experiments to speed up the time
from the concept phase to research prototypes and implementation. New production tools such as
3D printing support the prototyping phase, but also the exchange of new ideas between researchers
world-wide.
The IT infrastructure supports the seamless connection of experts to support collaboration on
complex large-scale research projects, but also to harvest microknowledge. The future experts
personal IT system facilitates the experts contribution to a range of problems discussed in groups of
scientists. Contributions from large numbers of experts are collated with IT support and lead to new
theories, insights and technologies. Scientists can also rely on quick access to an interested broad
public whose members engage in scientific projects as users, but also as laymen contributors - from
data collection to analysis.
Researchers are able to quickly test the feasibility of novel ideas and to interact with large
communities of potential users or beneficiaries. The analysis of environmental impacts is supported
and computerised tools facilitate quick estimation of production costs.
Teams for special projects are dynamically created - even for short-term tasks. They are composed
from an organisations world-wide staff but also include freelance R&D consultants and specifically
hired experts from all around the world. Interaction between team members is facilitated by highquality video conferencing, virtual labs combining infrastructure from several labs into a projecttailored lab and collaborative research software that supports co-authoring of documents and
programmes.

NGC Roadmap Study

34

Specific problems such as design challenges involving end-users are outsourced to open RTDI
platforms of various kinds. Such platforms exist for special problems in narrow domains but also for
more innovation-related tasks.
In the area of education, technology and in particular information technology has often been eyed
with scepticism. While there has been a wave of using multi-media teaching material already (from
the 1970s), many teachers remain sceptical about the wide application of ICT in the classroom and
mobile devices are often banned in schools.
This situation is changing, although only slowly. The changes are driven by social as well as
technological forces. One such driver is the increased use of social networking and internet resources
among and between students, but also networking with peers, instructors, freelancers and other
people interested in supporting training and education. From a technology perspective, the bring
your own device (BYOD) trend is clearly visible also in the classroom. Mobile devices facilitate access
to massive online courses, to interactive training material, online discussion sites for students etc.
But of utmost importance are mixed socio-technological trends such as serious gaming, simulation
and virtual reality modelling that facilitate an explorative, self-driven way of learning. Students are
empowered to study potential consequences of their actions in believable simulations, they
experience fun in competing with their mates in online educational gaming and get instant feedback
on acquired knowledge.
4.6.2 Application example: WorldLab - international collaborative research
Pauline has been thinking about novel ways to optimize the control of large infrastructures (for
example a stadium) in cases of emergencies recently. But she does not quite trust her simulations of
large crowds of people as these are not based on feedback loops to the crowd, for example through
emergency messages to peoples mobile phones.
She conjures that the dynamics can essentially be captured with an improved mathematical model
that is used in fluid dynamics and she posts this thought in an online forum. Two hours later a couple
of experts from all over the world have commented on her problem. A mathematician from Belarus
has come up with a more general conjecture that includes Paulines description as a special case.
In parallel she has created an on-line description of a novel project that she is now preparing as a
result of the insights gained. She first outlines the idea on an RTDI funding platform, hoping to create
sufficient interest in the project from either the scientific community, a broader public or
entrepreneurs scanning for new business ideas. As she is confident to be able to find either funding
or volunteers for her project, she also describes the required staffing. She is looking for an expert
who analyses large data sets. She also looks for volunteers to collect more specific data in this
application.

NGC Roadmap Study

35

Before finishing her work day, Pauline contributes a piece of code from her crowd simulation to an
online mobile gaming platform. She was contacted earlier by a group of students from her old high
school where she occasionally helps with online tutoring in mathematics for students participating in
mathematics competition. The students have created a mixed-reality adventure game that is played
using mobile devices in real city environments. As a part of this game, they would like to use
Paulines algorithms for simulating the behaviour of large crowds of protesters in narrow streets and
underground tunnels. It takes Pauline half an hour to create a sufficiently stable version of her code
written for massively parallel high-performance computers that can run on smaller scale computing
devices. It does not have all the features of her code but should suffice for the online game. She
finishes off recording a quick commentary on the code that she posts on the platforms developer
section. She also sends the code to her 12-year old daughter who has had trouble catching up on the
French revolution in her history class. Perhaps she can use the code for her social simulation project
on the storming of the Bastille.

4.7 Future Healthcare: Health and happiness in the digital age

Healthcare systems face many challenges arising from the trend of an aging population and the need
to keep down costs to the state in what is, at least in Europe, something generally provided by the
state. Next generation computing can make a significant contribution to a more healthy society as
new technology enables us to have better diagnostic tools, drugs, treatments and preventative care.
The way forward is not without difficulties however; healthcare provision is a particularly sensitive
area when it comes to data management, with privacy and security concerns being very much at the
fore of the publics mind.
4.7.1 The Scenario
In this scenario we examine a vision of the future in which patients will experience personalised
healthcare and will engage more with their wellbeing and health, they are active drivers of their own
healthcare and take responsibility for their own health. Their lifestyles can be monitored from

NGC Roadmap Study

36

physiological data streams captured from body sensors and recorded directly into their electronic
health record and the national health database. Citizens will be aware of healthy living via large scale
e-health campaigns and are provided with e-health support kits to improve access to information,
and aid physical and mental wellbeing. Patients can liaise with fellow patients in social hangouts to
share experiences about particular diseases, these hangouts allow them to find emotional support
and reduces isolation.
The healthcare system is based on a consumer/retail based model - they are users of healthcare.
Future doctors provide healthcare virtually through bio-connectivity and extend healthcare to
community care. This will be achieved through real-time analytics and location-intelligence tools.
Thus, clinical decisions will be made based upon better, accurate data collection. The focus of
healthcare will be upon preventative treatments and treating patients for conditions which are likely
to develop and restructuring the system around that situation. Therefore, the community focus is
more aligned to social science rather than life science, for example tools will encourage healthier
habits in the population, sporting facilities will be built, nutritional programmes will be run and
healthy food will be subsidised.
Of course, as health and wellbeing are delivered virtually, protecting patient data and securing IT
infrastructures becomes increasingly challenging for healthcare of the future. The bio-connectivity
approach brings a numbers of challenges including securing medical devices and data, and achieving
regulatory compliance. Above all, the future system must be trusted by the patients to have any
chance of being taken up and thereby delivering benefits.
4.7.2 Application example: The Networked Patient
Pablo is diagnosed with heart disease. His case is treated by the healthcare system of the future as a
managed process which results in the best treatment and recovery plan.
The diagnosis phase is carried out by a visit to his local GP, which in the future is a hub for interaction
with the appropriate medical specialists. Some tests can be carried out simply in the home, but some
must of course be carried out by trained people. With the help of the GP and clinical staff at the local
hub, the heart disease specialist makes an assessment of Pablos condition via remote link (telepresence). The specialist is located at a hospital in Madrid, but today he has already seen patients in
many different towns and cities in Spain, and also in other EU countries under an agreement to share
resources.
Pablo is scheduled for a bypass operation and a surgeon is selected. The surgeon is given temporary
permission to access data for the case so that she can prepare. The surgeon was trained at one of
Europes top hospitals, which has a state-of-the-art virtual operating theatre used for teaching.
Before operating on a single real person, she had performed over a hundred similar operations as
part of her qualification, often with complications introduced by the training system to test her skill.

NGC Roadmap Study

37

A week before the operation, the surgeon, consultant, GP and patient all meet in a videoconference
to discuss the operation and aftercare plan.
After his operation, Pablo returns home where care is provided via a networked interactive platform
in his home which interacts with the hospital system. He has a smart device, like a wrist watch, with
personal sensors which are connected to the interactive platform and the hospital system to enable
mobile vital sign tracking and cooperation with the interactive platform.
The home interactive platform carries out a number of functions:

It manages a smart medicine cabinet, telling the patient when to take drugs. If appropriate, it
can be configured to do this securely, releasing codes that allow access to the correct drugs
only at the appropriate times.

It interacts with smart dressings which monitor the progress of healing.

It provides instant communication with the GP surgery in the event of complications arising,
or to allow Pablo to get simple advice from the surgery.

Initially Pablo is apprehensive about the technology and is concerned who can see his medical data
and how the data is secured. Following guidance and introductory tutorials from a local community
wellbeing team, Pablo grows in confidence using the devices. As well as the medical aftercare, the
patient is motivated to take his health and wellbeing more seriously and takes a number of steps to
improve his lifestyle.
Later, Pablo decides to get involved with the national wellbeing campaigns and refers to the e-health
toolkit provided by the local council. He spends time watching the health tutorials from the toolkit
and begins to understand the importance of wellbeing in the context of post-surgery recovery but
also long term health and wellbeing. Based on this, Pablo decides to engage with the dietician via the
interactive platform to discuss a new diet/range of menus that would be suitable for a healthy

NGC Roadmap Study

38

lifestyle post recovery. Alongside this activity, he engages in a number of virtual exercise classes
specifically customised to his health needs and post-surgery recuperation. In time, as recovery
progresses the patient decides to spend some of the personal Wellbeing Fund from the government
on weekly sessions with a personal health coach to build on the online exercise sessions and healthy
eating to sustain the new lifestyle approach adopted since surgery. He feels re-energised and
motivated both after the personal training sessions and after the cognitive sessions with the health
coach, so much so that the patient decides to spend more of their Wellbeing Fund to pay for entry to
the local running event. Afterwards Pablo reflects upon the shift in the healthcare system and
appreciates the ease and level of interaction technology affords in the healthcare service, compared
to the long waiting lists experienced in years gone by. He also appreciates the impact the healthcare
experience has had on attitudes generally and on the new approach to lifestyle.

4.8 Living with scarce resources: Renewtopia

Scarcity of resources, including energy, is a global megatrend that will have a profound effect on the
socioeconomic fabric of the world in the coming years and decades. The future looks even more
challenging as we rely so heavily on industrial processes that use materials that have finite reserves
and are energy hungry. We must look to a future in which re-use, renewal and recycling are central.
4.8.1 The scenario
It is 2025+. Energy is expensive. The increasing competition for energy and resources from emerging
economies have contributed to higher costs. Consumers are cost-conscious and have changed their
behaviour regarding how much energy they consume and how they consume it. Factors such as
rising fossil fuel prices, grid instability, aggressive carbon pricing and environmental pressure have all
played a part in this. Over the last decade, citizens and organisations have been actively looking at
cost-efficient ways to consume less energy, or at least consume energy in a more efficient way.
Governments have become more energy and environmentally conscious. There is an increased
competition for resources but also cooperation on key energy issues when it is mutually beneficial.
Issues include greenhouse gas emission reduction, energy efficiency and renewable generation.
These issues are subjects of intense negotiations as well as international agreements and programs.
We live in a renewable energy-based, digital world. We live in intelligently managed sustainable
homes. We use next-generation home energy management systems to measure, monitor and
manage our energy consumption based on pre-configured policies. Smart meters and smart grids
make it easier for us to monitor and manage energy use. Energy generation has also become
localised via small-scale renewable generation such as solar panels and wind-turbines on houses. This
energy is shared via micro-grids - some of which hook back into central energy grids.
We use zero-emission (human-powered or electric) vehicles to commute (although these vehicles
still have an embedded carbon cost). The vehicles are equipped with batteries. Drivers can use solar
panels to charge up their electric vehicles during the day, and can use the electricity from their cars
to power all kinds of devices in their homes at night. We can store electricity in different ways and
move it where we need it. There is an open, city-based online platform that provides us with
information on electric vehicles, available charging methods and spots, carbon dioxide emissions,
and other related data, products and services.
We use many different portable electronic devices, such as wireless sensors, mobile phones, media
players, in our daily lives for different purposes such as healthcare, sports, entertainment, education,
etc. Limited battery life has been a significant inconvenience for most of these devices, therefore in-

NGC Roadmap Study

39

motion energy generation from renewable sources and human-powered wearable computing have
become popular. We are able to power our mobile electronic devices through motion-based energy
harvesting.
With the increasing use of mobile and multimedia applications, machine-to-machine computing,
Internet of Things, smart grids and smart meters, among others, the demand for ICT services has
grown exponentially. Cloud computing and hosted data centre services have helped meet this
growing demand, but have also created demand for large, multi-megawatt data centres.
4.8.2 Application example: Highly efficient data centres
Data centres have historically been large consumers of electricity. But data centre suppliers and
operators now use smart technologies that follow broader industry trends such as the need to
reduce energy consumption; improving data centre efficiency, management and planning; improving
business agility and speed of reaction and deployment; increasing IT workload agility and efficiency;
improving data centre resilience and enabling higher availability.
Data centre operators now include the use of outside air, sea- or lake water to cool their facilities
instead of energy and cost-intensive mechanical cooling. Alongside the super data-hubs, data centres
have become smaller and more distributed than before to match distributed sources of renewable
energy.
Many data centre operators now use strategies such as follow the moon for workload management.
They shift workloads between data centres - either their own or those operated by third-party cloud
providers - depending where the cheapest place to execute the workload is based on the availability
of affordable energy.
Advanced data centre infrastructure management (DCIM) systems have become autonomic (selfregulating) operating systems for the data centre. DCIM tools have much greater embedded
intelligence than before, can integrate with building management and IT systems, and can provide
sophisticated management planning and reporting tools. This kind of dynamic management has
proved to be crucial to lowering the capital and operating costs of data centres. A suite of DCIM
management tools may be used to manage and monitor all equipment and conditions. Closely linked
to the advanced management of buildings and IT systems, power-proportional computing is used
for reducing the idle-power of servers.

NGC Roadmap Study

40

Advanced micro-grid technology helps optimise energy use by reducing the IT energy load when it is
safe to do so, engaging in "transactive" energy management, and by buying and selling power in the
most economical and eco-friendly way.
4.8.3 Application example: Smart energy sharing
Intensive energy consumers, as well as our sustainable homes generate their own electricity
through renewable means (on-site clean power generation) and sell any excess to a utility. Microgrids enable locally-generated energy to be shared between large consumers and/or sustainable
homes, as well as other users. This not only helps bring down the cost of power and stabilise prices,
but it also contributes to the fight against climate change and enhances the security of the energy
supply. There are also a number of electricity suppliers that use only renewable sources and have a
carbon footprint of zero. This means that both organisations and citizens have the option of getting
100% of their electricity from renewable sources.

4.9 Future Manufacturing: At a factory near you

The increasing cost of energy and the need to reduce the use of carbon based energy will change the
way in which manufacturing is carried out. Transportation of raw materials and finished goods will be
reduced to minimise transportation costs with raw materials being processed close to source to
reduce size and weight thus minimising transportation costs or alternative materials being utilised
that are available close to use.
Total cost of ownership from an energy perspective will become more prevalent with new business
models arising that place the burden of energy use on the manufacturer. Built in obsolescence will
become redundant and the focus will be on increasing the useable life of products through modular
designs and software driven cyber-physical control systems. This will challenge models based on
economies of scale and drive the introduction of small scale flexible manufacturing that will be smart
and responsive to changing products at a unit level.

NGC Roadmap Study

41

Around 13 elements that are in everyday use are under threat within the next 20-25 years. This will
drive the use of manufacturing techniques that reduce wastage such as additive layer manufacturing
or 3D printing. Alternative materials will be sought and new innovative composites based on
combinations of biomaterials will become more commonplace.
The supply chain will move towards a closed loop where end of lifecycle products will be the source
of raw materials for new products, and this will be supported by real time data analytics and new
innovative modelling and simulation techniques that support a closed loop life cycle.
Manufacturing will have to respond to meet the needs of an increasingly affluent and demanding
consumer base that will be more geographically spread. Local values and preferences will drive the
need for different versions of products that will ultimately mean more geographically dispersed and
smaller manufacturing units that are closer to the consumer and that can finish products to meet
local tastes.
Future society will become more demanding, connected and knowledgeable and this will mean that
highly skilled workforces will collaborate virtually in the design and manufacturing process. Socially
responsibility will be needed to integrate networks of people with technology and manufacturing
networks. A more globally connected world will increase awareness of goods and services on offer
elsewhere and this will increase the demand for global brands but with mass customisation as
consumers aim to personalise products to their tastes.
One aspect that will become important is how to effectively integrate people into the manufacturing
process.
This will become especially challenging with a potential juxtaposition with highly
automated, self-learning and connected machinery and components that will be operating and
responding to real time stimuli. Virtual training will be a critical element to ensure effective
integration of people into increasingly sophisticated and intelligent manufacturing processes.
4.9.1 The scenario
Tomorrows factory will comprise a network of small flexible, self-adaptive geographically dispersed
stations that subcontract services to suppliers. The OEM has become an OES (Original Equipment
Subcontractor). Machines will be self-programming, predictive and self-healing, communicative and
smart. Renewable energy will power energy efficient processes that minimise material use and
wastage and they will make products that are close to customer to minimise transportation and that
will build products that are designed to last.
The role of people will change and will become highly collaborative and virtual with global networks
of people involved in new manufacturing models.
4.9.2 Application example: Consumer products mass produced to order
It's the year 2030 and John is looking to purchase a new washing machine and opts for a 2.5kg
capacity because analytics on his previous machine advised him this was average wash load. He was
also very specific about the size of the machine due to the non-standard dimension of his kitchen and
the external appearance had to match the unique printed finish of his kitchen units. Functional
options were easy to select. He was busy in his job as an automotive designer and didn't want to be
distracted as he collaborated with his design colleagues from his home office, so he needed a unit
that was fully automatic, sensed the garments that could be grouped together and ran a cycle
automatically to completion. All he wanted to do was pick them out and place them in his wardrobe.

NGC Roadmap Study

42

After seeing an immediate 3D visualisation of the finished products, John ultimately settled for a
machine that offered each wash at 0.30 per batch to be reviewed at the end of a 10-year contract,
and that could be delivered and fitted within 6 hours. A shorter contract would have given the option
to change the unit sooner but would have resulted in a Materials Levy charge. He also opted to
reduce the Material Levy imposed on the new machine by accepting a 100 payment so that the
supplier could utilise refurbished components where possible. He was using the new Price for
Purpose model where the supplier was responsible for meeting the energy costs through good
design and smart metering, ensuring that the machine was always available for use through effective
online and real time monitoring and servicing, and recycling water using microbial and ultrasound
technologies to reduce charges. This new business model arose is replacing the traditional economies
of scale model that was based on build-more, sell-more and built in product obsolescence. And if the
supplier is to be commercially successful they had to ensure that energy use was minimised and
resource utilisation maximised.
He attached the graphics for the external design along with his specification and submitted his order
to the Milan based supplier. To minimise transportation of the larger finished product,
manufacturing and assembly will take place in a small specialised unit close to Johns home. The
supplier has strategic agreements and agreed subcontract prices with a network of such units. The
only component where manufacturing capability is retained by the supplier, is in the ultrasound
enhanced cleansing system that minimises both water and energy needed to operation. 6 hours was
originally quoted to John and this was based on an analysis of the resource and manufacturing
availability throughout the manufacturing network.
A critical step in realising these networks of flexible discrete manufacturing units that are selfprogramming, scheduling and controlling was the relatively recent development of an industry wide
set of communication standards and protocols for machine-to-machine and machine to component /
product communications. This allowed component parts to be marked with electronic tags /
information that identify themselves to the machines which in turn self-programme to deliver a
series of production processes required to produce the part or move to on to its next stage.

NGC Roadmap Study

43

Sophisticated robotic-based materials handling equipment ensure safe transportation of components

to the next stage in the process.
Coincidentally, Helga, one of Johns neighbours had ordered a new kettle around the same time. As
the machine was finishing off the graphics on Johns washing machine, Helgas kettle was being
placed at the machine by robotics so that her heat retaining coating could be applied. Both items
were scheduled for completion at the same time to realise energy efficiencies in the transportation
required for delivery.
The manufacturing process did not stop after installation. Big data analytical tools, fuelled by
information provided by smart meters and self-monitoring health and utilisation systems, detected
that a component part of Johns washing machine was due to fail in around 2 weeks. It instigated a
repair routine to manufacture the component part locally through a combination of printed
electronics and 3D printing and have it installed before John knew of the impending failure and
ultimately saved the supplier penalty costs as a result of a contracted SLA.
Similarly and invisible to John, the machine manufacturing one of the component parts for Johns
machine was close to failure prior to loading his part on for manufacture. With no alternative
machine available for 3 hours it would have meant a delay in the delivery of his product. However,
the machine recognised signs that an internal control unit was about to fail and had made itself a
replacement part that was fitted by robotics before continuing on with the production of Johns
component. Downtime was reduced to 32 minutes but because this was predicted it was already
accounted for in Johns delivery schedule.
The clean, automated and orchestrated activity of the manufacturing unit has an almost artistic
quality. As a result an innovative caf owner had agreed to provide lease free space in the middle of
his caf in which the facility was enclosed in a glass dome. A small sub unit dedicated to food
production was developed so that users could order food to their own requirements and watch them
being made. This provided an interesting feature for his business that proved successful.

4.10 Technology needs

The scenarios described in the preceding sections were intended to suggest possible visions of the
future based on current market and technology trends. They are not intended to be firm predictions
or to indicate a desired state that we should be aiming for.
In this section, we list the major technology areas in which progress needs to be made if the
scenarios are to be realised. These broad technology areas are expanded on in section 4 which
follows.
4.10.1 The Digital Citizen: Its all about me
This scenario will generate technology needs in the areas of smart devices, software agents, and
ubiquitous high capacity networking. The smart devices envisaged will need advanced interfaces
featuring haptic feedback and be able to interpret gesture and mood. Some of these will be wearable,
and will need to be low power or self-powering.
Software agents will need to act like a human helper and have cognitive and AI capabilities. These
agents must be able to interact autonomously and securely with services on the users behalf and
have the ability to learn and adapt to the profile of their owner.

NGC Roadmap Study

44

High-capacity networking involving billions of connections, with seamless transition between

domains (telecom and Wi-Fi cells) features heavily in this scenario. Secure communications will be
essential.
Service providers will need to provide interoperability and high availability of service to meet the
customer expectations. For a thriving set of applications to exist, it must be easy to create and deploy
applications on cloud computing platforms. User experience must be of a high quality at almost every
location. Services must be customisable by the user.
4.10.2 The Digital Nation: Its about us
Security, privacy and trustworthiness underpin this scenario. Data collection must be secure, with
intrusion detection built in if the public is to have trust in state use of NGC. Systems to detect
malicious activity (fraud and other crime) will be required to ensure national security and encourage
trust. This will require intelligent software and collection and analysis of large data sets.
Governments will have an interest in having good NGC infrastructure to encourage economic growth,
and will encourage interoperability of services.
4.10.3 Intelligent Transport: Trains with brains
This scenario will require technologies to plan and optimise travel. This will require tools capable of
optimising large-scale interacting systems. Massive networks of sensors will be required to securely
collect data which must be analysed in real time.
Tools to predict demand and status of physical transport networks will be required. Planning tools
must be able to respond rapidly to changes in real time and generated modified schedules. Secure
billing and payment systems will be needed to handle massive transaction loads. Robustness and the
ability to interoperate with other infrastructures and services will be essential.
Intelligent software agents that act on behalf of the user will be needed, and will have similar
requirements to those outlined in the scenario Its all about me.
4.10.4 Education and Research: Connected brains
This scenario demands technology that supports collaboration, cooperation and sharing.
Technologies that will be essential include those that support controlled access to massive
unstructured data archives and tools to query and process the data. This must include detecting fake
or plagiarised results.
Infrastructure to support virtual laboratories will be required. This will create the demand for
technology to support remote use of instruments and access to specialised equipment such as highend HPC systems. Libraries of modelling and simulation software must be available and it must be
easy for researchers to find and use the tools that they need. Technology to support collaboration
between researchers will be required such as telepresence and augmented reality.

NGC Roadmap Study

45

4.10.5 Future Healthcare: Health and happiness in the digital age

This scenario demonstrates how next generation computing can improve healthcare for the
individual, and at the same time reduce cost and improve the effectiveness of healthcare provision.
Healthcare generates massive quantities data of diverse types and hence technology to manage and
analyse data of this nature will be essential. Privacy and security are major concerns and future
systems must have these features.
Medical training and diagnosis will create a demand for augmented reality, telepresence and remote
sensing technologies. Patient interaction with healthcare of the future will require easy to use
intuitive interfaces. Implants, dressings and medications will need to allow a patients well-being to
be monitored. This will require smart materials and miniature electronic sensors.
Drug development will require access to HPC systems and simulation software, together with data
storage analysis and visualisation technologies.
4.10.6 Living with scarce resources: Renewtopia
This scenario deals with one of the fundamental trends that seems sure to have a massive influence
over every human activity the need to make efficient use of resources.
For NGC this means that technologies that can do more with less, especially with regard to energy
consumption, will be paramount. In the short term this means dealing with the current hardware
trend of multicore and heterogeneous computing, and the resulting need for software that can
exploit more parallelism. In the longer term, technologies that allow us to create low-power
components will be essential. Such technologies are likely to include new materials and enhanced
production techniques.
At the next level will be the need for new computing architectures which take account of
performance per unit of energy together with the needs of data-intensive computing. Corresponding
new programming models and languages may be needed to support this.
Technologies that will allow energy generation from renewable sources, energy storage and sharing,
will be essential as computing becomes ever more distributed.
In addition to being a consumer of energy, and in that sense part of the problem, NGC also becomes
part of the solution as it can be applied to enabling smart energy systems and optimisation of nonrenewable energy sources. Smart power networks will require optimisation techniques and real-time
response to networks of millions of sensors.
4.10.7 Future Manufacturing: At a factory near you
This scenario is about both sides of the cyber-physical boundary. It covers how the cyber world of
digital design and specification is translated into the physical world of manufactured goods by means
of smart and customisable production techniques, and how information from these physical
processes is fed back to the cyber world to capture information on the lifecycle of the finished
product and the processes that created it. Underpinning this scenario is the increasingly complex
challenge of effectively integrating people into new manufacturing paradigms, and how global
people networks and collaborations can be supported.

NGC Roadmap Study

46

The technologies that will be required in this scenario are in the areas of materials and production,
intelligent systems, sensors and instrumentation.
Technologies that convert from digital to physical domains, such as 3D printing and other automated
production technologies will be required, together with real-time scheduling of equipment and raw
material supplies to support manufacturing to order. Optimisation and condition monitoring of
factories will require a broad array of sensors and instrumentation.
Product lifecycle monitoring will require smart miniature electronics so that a products history can
be recorded, together with technologies to enable manufacture for re-use and recycling.
All of this will drive a proliferation of data generation that will explode in its complexity when
successfully utilised for closed loop life cycle modelling, simulation and real time management.
Technologies that can capture, transfer, store and analyse, in real time, this increasingly complex and
vast array of data will be a major enabler for new manufacturing models.
The internet and digital communications will become the arteries of this new global network of
intelligent self-aware and self-learning systems, then cyber security will become an increasingly
critical aspect that will have to be effectively addressed to instil trust and confidence and drive
progress.

NGC Roadmap Study

47

5 The RTDI challenges

The scenarios depicted in the previous section generate many challenges in the areas of research,
technology, development and innovation (RTDI). These can be grouped into a number of categories,
which are discussed below. These categories are used again in section 7 of this report which deals
with specific roadmaps for each of our scenarios, and which deal with more detailed technological
developments that will be needed for each scenario. Clearly many of the categories are overlapping
and interdependent, and identifying the cross-cutting technologies is an important part of assessing
impact and assigning priorities for areas that a research and development programme should focus
on.
Cyber-physical systems
The future will see very large and interconnected systems of CPS, such as traffic and crowd
management sensor networks. Technologies will be needed to support indoor localisation and
navigation. Positioning systems that overcome the lack of accuracy of todays GPS will be needed.
Galileo will be more accurate, but there will also be the need for robust indoor positioning and
positioning in blocked sky scenarios. Future systems must have low or zero maintenance needs
due to their scale and so as not to constrain deployment scenarios.
Smart systems
Smart systems will be everywhere. Traffic and transport systems, the urban environment, delivery of
utilities, smart grids and meters, healthcare and leisure will be supported by interoperating smart
systems. This will require intelligent agents, cognitive computing (social network management),
novel digital social platforms and the interoperation of complex systems. New approaches to
problems such as the travelling salesman will be required
Organic and large-area electronics
Electronics embedded into everything is a likely feature of future scenarios. Printed electronics is a
promising technology for mass produced versatile and customisable components such as displays
and sensors. Cost and robustness will need to be improved. Devices must be easily upgradable and
recycled at the end of life. 3D displays, flexible / foldable / rollable / transformational screens will
be the first step toward an innovation that may completely change the smartphone user experience why put something in your pocket when you can wrap it around your wrist?
Smart materials and products
Techniques for producing materials with embedded processing, sensing and communication
capability will be required. 3D printing and additive layer manufacturing. Smart textiles and
implantable devices, and in-body or human embedded technologies for medical applications will be
in demand. Programmability of smart materials may also be a desired capability in the future.

NGC Roadmap Study

48

Customised and low-power computing

In the short term, mastering multicore and heterogeneity will be essential as these are wellestablished hardware trends. Increased miniaturisation will allow components to be deployed in
more situations. Energy efficient micro-servers will be needed for easily deployable computing
clusters, and potentially to build energy efficient data-centres. In the longer term the challenge is to
find new processor technologies to overcome the limitations of todays technology. Silicon
photonics and graphene are likely to be significant technologies. In the very long term, techniques
such as quantum computing and bio-computing may provide solutions.
Energy technologies
Renewable energy technologies will be required to allow generation, storage, distribution and
sharing of energy. New battery technologies would allow greater time between charging for
consumer devices. Such technology must also focus on recyclability, easy disposability and re-use.
Energy harvesting technologies that allow devices to run without any external power source will be
required.
Cognitive systems
Producing systems with cognitive capabilities is a major technological challenge. Applications such as
crime prevention and security require the ability to analyse crowd behaviour and carry out voice,
image and face recognition, detect intrusion into digital systems and other complex tasks. Success
in this area will require not only significant computing processing power and data storage, but
development of algorithms and AI techniques. Crowd computing is another interesting area that taps
into the worlds cognitive surplus.
Smart optical and wireless network technologies
Consumers and providers will demand reliable, high quality networks. Key challenges in this area are
managing massive numbers of connections, seamlessly transitioning between modes of
communication, establishing reliable communication over unreliable networks. Networks must be
secure, with the ability to detect and remove threats.
Advanced cloud infrastructures
Cloud computing offers the promise of ubiquitous access to digital services to consumers, and a lowcost way to develop services to providers. Challenges in this area include dynamic configuration,
automated provisioning and orchestration of cloud resources; secure email, storage and other
services; interoperable system interfaces, federated cloud networking, and the ability to comply
with legislation (for example guaranteeing geographic location of data storage or programme
execution).

NGC Roadmap Study

49

Tools and methods for software development

The emergence of multicore and heterogeneous computing is challenging conventional
programming models and techniques. New programming paradigms for these new architectures,
and for future (possible more disruptive) processor technologies and architectures, are needed.
These new paradigms must take account of energy efficient computing, greater levels of parallelism
and dealing with data on a massive scale. Application scalability must be addressed, together with
legacy-code adaptation. Software and hardware co-design should be considered as an approach.
Toolkit functionality available across devices is highly desirable and will boost developer productivity.
Advanced communications network infrastructure
Successors to 4G technology will be needed for consumers to reap the widest benefits from other
NGC developments. Improvements in bandwidth, latency, security, network coverage and reliability
are all needed.
Big data analytics
Big data seems certain to be a dominant force, with many opportunities perceived. To make the
most of these opportunities, technologies must be developed to provide systems, tools and
methods to manage and analyse for massive unstructured data sources. Computer systems geared
towards massive data handling will be needed, together with advanced analytic software capable of
supporting data mining on a massive scale. Access control and data curation will be essential
features of future systems.
Multimodal computer interaction
In all likelihood, computing systems will become so much part of the fabric of everyday life that we
will be almost constantly interacting with the digital environment. In such a situation, the interfaces
and modes of interaction must allow maximum usability and enhance the user experience.
Technologies such as advanced displays, augmented reality glasses and wearable computing will be
required. Recognition of speech, gesture and facial expressions will be desirable, together with eyetracking and awareness of surroundings. Natural language as well as touch interfaces are needed.
Software assistants that act on behalf of the user will enhance usability.
Privacy and security
Our increasing dependence on digital systems increases our exposure to malicious activity. The
impact this could have on business and society justifies the development of advanced methods to
protect systems and detect suspicious activity. Technologies for attack-proof systems, and means to
certify them will be needed. Together with this we require a framework that allows the rights of
individuals to privacy, for example to be digitally forgotten.

NGC Roadmap Study

50

Human learning and teaching

NGC has the potential to revolutionise many aspects of teaching and learning, starting at the very
earliest age. There is the prospect of education being personalised to account for individual ability
and interest, and to be delivered virtually. This could have great societal impact. There will be a
demand for technologies to support the virtual classroom (eg telepresence). Students (and teachers)
of the future will have access to huge data and information assets. Technology will create a
disruptive effect on teaching and learning which have been based on the physical classroom or
laboratory. The sociological implications of the switch to virtual environments need to be researched
in tandem with NCG technology development.
Gaming
The games industry is already a huge market for computing, and a driving force for new technology.
This seems to be trend that is unlikely to change. There will be demand for incremental progress as
games platform producers seek to keep their products at the leading edge, but also for breakthrough
technologies that will enable a new experience for players. The games industry will therefore for be
a driver for both short term and long term technology development.

NGC Roadmap Study

51

6 State-of-Play
6.1 Our computing environment today
Globalisation and technology innovation are changing the way we work and live. A new generation of
workers and consumers -the digital natives -demand all kinds of integrated, digital products and
services. Also, a new kind of enterprise is emerging - that is intelligent and interactive, socially driven,
ubiquitous, and service oriented. Among the critical trends forcing this transformation are the
consumerisation of information and communication technologies, the Internet of Everything, cloudbased services, and big data. There is a significant transformation going on in all stages of value
creation and delivery.

Figure 5: The Digital Economy (Source: The 451 Groups Digital Infrastructure Playbook)

These critical trends have a major effect on computing itself. The chart below provides a big-picture
view of how we see the evolution of computing from different aspects such as hardware, software,
service, connectivity, among others, and in light of the governing megatrends and business models.

NGC Roadmap Study

52

Figure 6: The Evolution of Computing

We are entering a new era of personalised smart computing where tablets, smartphones and other
connecting devices take centre stage. Tablet and smartphone markets are growing at double or triple
digits, while the PC market grows at single digits, and is starting to flatten out. Tablets are starting to
curtail the demand for PCs as users realise that tablets can do most of the things a PC can do. In any
case, the future of personalised computing is not limited to smartphones, tablets and PCs. We will
use all kinds of screens and displays to access our digital stuff in our personal clouds. The personal
cloud can be seen as a virtual mainframe where all our data and intelligence reside and are
processed, and are being synchronised with our various terminals or devices. However, this model
depends on the availability of a ubiquitous, always-on connection to online resources in the cloud.
From Hardware to Software
With IT budgets under pressure, the emphasis in the hardware sector continues to be a more with
less scenario. The general industry trend is flowing away from specialised hardware toward cheaper,
smaller and low-power commodity hardware and toward pure-software virtual appliances that can
run on any standard hardware (server). Server, networking and storage equipment are likely to be
powered by simpler core processors similar to those currently used in mobile devices but optimised
for specific tasks. More of these can be fitted into the same sized package, saving space and power
consumption. With hardware becoming a commodity, software is where most of the commercial and
economic value will be.
In particular, systems using standard components in the domains of servers, storage and networking
will be tied together through software management and system software at the hypervisor layer or
directly plugged into it. The biggest investments are focused on the management layers.
There is a need for new core competencies in the area of parallel programming and design of chips,
software and applications, as well as digital based manufacturing and product management;
considering mega-trends such as connecting devices, social media, cloud, big data, energy efficiency.
The focus is also shifting to the importance of skills to create tools that allow us to analyse the

NGC Roadmap Study

53

information enabling people to make better decisions. Big Data will be one of the dominating trends
when it comes to data management and analytics.
Converged/Integrated Infrastructure
With hardware becoming a commodity, some traditional hardware and system vendors (for example
IBM) have turned to and are now focusing on selling software and services, while getting rid of their
hardware businesses. Others (for example Cisco) are trying to hold off commoditisation by selling
converged/integrated systems with more value-add, and at the same time are also becoming
service providers. This is how they maintain margins.
With the commoditisation of components, a large part of the value is in the assembly, aggregation
and packaging, and the tight integration of hardware and software in order to make systems work
more efficiently and automatically.
From the users point of view, the complexity and interdependency of storage, network, server and
software in virtualised environments is driving interest in integrated infrastructure solutions. The
primary benefits are: simplified and quicker installation; greater density and resource utilisation;
systems management of all resources through a single console; and better performance through a
closer match between the underlying hardware and the infrastructure and application software
running on top. The convergence can be tightly or loosely coupled tighter is better for
simplification, predictable performance and reliability, while looser provides more flexibility, a
greater choice of components and less vendor lock-in.
Efficient Utilisation of IT and Energy
The use of IT today is very inefficient, in terms of both cost and energy. Making the use of resources
more efficient by building efficient and smart systems will be key to sustainability. IT remains both a
major energy user and an important potential force for reducing energy consumption. One clear
trend is that companies with a presence in multiple markets such as data centres, intelligent
buildings and automation will increasingly seek to cross-sell and share technologies across multiple
markets. Managing energy consumption in a data centre and in, for example, an airport requires
many common technologies.
There is a type of convergence underway in the energy management area too. A similar set of
components is increasingly serving three core markets buildings, data centres and across the
enterprise. We expect competition in this broader energy management software category to
intensify as more vendors diversify their energy management products and target markets.

NGC Roadmap Study

54

New Commerce Models and Cloud-based Services

There are two primary types of businesses that markets are self-organised around1:

The Complex Systems (systems and projects) business specialises in highly customized
solutions to complex challenges (for example IBM, Cisco, etc.)

The Volume Operations (products and transactions) business sells packaged products or
service transactions addressing everyday needs of large masses (for example Apple, Google,
Facebook, etc.)

Not all companies operate at these two extremes, but can be classified based on which of these two
groups they ultimately belong or commit to. Over time, the volume operation offers encroach on the
complex systems territory, forcing the complex systems offers to evolve to a new level of complexity
and open up a new market frontier. A good example of this is the emergence of the converged or
integrated infrastructure offerings.
Build-to-order configurations assembled in the factory and shipped directly to end-users arent good
news for third-party integrators and resellers. However, vendors realise that they cant sell
everything directly and are adjusting their strategies to make room for the channel to add value.
Channels are important innovation drivers. They produce (for example third-party developers)
and/or sell (for example resellers, system integrators) the products that are used by customers.
Strategic/influential alliances and co-opetitive strategies will continue to be formed driven by
commercial interests.
New commerce models will have to accommodate mega-trends such as connecting devices, social
media, open source strategies as well as cloud and hybrid set-ups. Enterprises internal IT is going
through a major transformation. We see cloud computing as a proxy for this transformation,
however, instead of the cloud being an end unto itself, it is rapidly becoming an element of a
manifold approach to service delivery within the enterprises broader digital infrastructure. Effective
CIOs are maximising value and minimising risk by carefully choosing the right proportions of various
assets, be it dedicated, shared, managed, unmanaged, internal, external, cloud and non-cloud service
delivery venues.
The transition from traditional IT architectures to a cloud-based future is a slow and stately dance
that will be executed over multiple years as shown in Figure 7 . The digital infrastructure of the future
will provide CIOs with an assortment of service delivery venues where users are able to schedule and
automate the delivery of workloads to the most suitable venues, be it internal or external, depending
on workload characteristics, SLAs and policy requirements, such as latency, risk or locality. A variety
of vendors and service providers will populate an enterprises digital infrastructure. Orchestration,
cloud platform and management suppliers will all provide the connective tissue that binds this
ecosystem together.

Geoffrey Moore: Escape Velocity

NGC Roadmap Study

55

Figure 7: The State of Digital Infrastructure and Cloud Adoption (Source: 451 Research Cloud Computing Wave 5)

The industry is also moving towards open innovation and co-opetition collaboration is key to
innovation and long-term sustainability. Open communities and platforms are becoming part of the
value chains. Examples following this trend are OpenStack and the Open Compute Project, among
others. Universities and Research Centres if closely linked to the commercial world- foster
investment in innovative technologies. Governments can also lead by example and adopt new
capabilities and technologies in order to foster innovation, in addition to making their own
development and operations more efficient.
Service and Application Driven World
The use of IT is becoming service driven, consumption based rather than allocated in terms of budget
and resources. As a consequence, supply chains are also becoming more and more service-oriented.
Traditional system/IT vendors are becoming service companies.
Traditional outsourcing seems to blend seamlessly with newer cloud delivery models. With
outsourcing services put on top of a cloud-based delivery, cloud computing becomes a complement
rather than a replacement for outsourcing. As self-service capability defines the cloud user
experience, the ability to manage multiple services (both cloud and non-cloud services) through a
single pane of glass will become an integral part of product offerings. Service providers are rethinking
their service management strategies and are opting for an alternative to improve service visibility
and control. Simplicity and ease of management tops the list of cloud investment priorities.
Application marketplaces have taken hold in the business segment. The first iteration of business app
marketplaces was largely driven by service commoditisation; however, the new generation of app
marketplaces is market-driven, with intuitive design and functionality such as chargeback, usage

NGC Roadmap Study

56

analysis, tier-based management and single sign-on. These app marketplaces appear to be very userfriendly for non-technical users, and some user interfaces and marketplace frameworks enable
customisation. There will be room for adding new features and functionality to address an
increasingly diverse customer base horizontally and vertically. As enterprise-focused private-branded
marketplaces continue to gain ground, the appeal of app marketplaces will go deeper into vertical
industry segments. Application integration and management remain a daunting challenge as
businesses continue to add new services out of the service catalogue. There are concerns about
security and data governance as well. As the app marketplace model continues to evolve, providers
will have no choice but to address these challenges moving forward.
Mobile Computing and Bring Your Own Device
The rapid adoption of smartphones and tablets combined with the (BYOD) philosophy is causing
organisations to rethink client computing strategies. Client platforms and associated environments
will be dominated by mobile devices, in many cases by clients of the user's choice, and back-end
environments have to adjust accordingly.

6.2 High-level European SWOT analysis

An important further consideration of the state-of-play analysis is the current position and situation
of Europe as well as its member states. The following SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities,
and threats) analysis is based on several previous SWOT analysis exercises in the areas of embedded
systems, cloud computing, and high-performance computing as well as input from domain experts.
European Strengths
Europe has a large (500+ million) and politically stable common market. It also has a strong
background in research, a high-quality education system, and a myriad of innovative SMEs. Europe
has a particularly strong telecommunications and mobile computing industry and very high mobile
penetration. There are good telecom networks and there is a high general availability of broadband.
Europe has a strong software industry and world-class independent software vendors. With all the
convergence happening, software (as well as the assembly/aggregation/packaging of components) is
where the commercial and economic value will be. Europe has a strong background in open source
code development and many ongoing research projects (for example SOA, distributed systems) and
open source technologies. There is strong expertise in building high-value industry-specific
applications and ICT services. There are strong embedded ecosystems from low-power VLSI to
consumer products. There are leading processing element and IP producers in the embedded sector
(for example ARM, ST). Europe is strong in real-time and safety-critical applications (automotive,
aeronautics, automation, energy, health) with a world-class engineering community. There are also
large European end-users with strong market presence in the automotive, aerospace and defence
industry as well as in telecommunication infrastructure. There is a good level of networking of large
players with small SMEs, in particular in the embedded domain.
Europe is leading in energy-efficiency, not only legislation-wise, but in terms of products too.
Northern Europe is a particularly attractive destination for highly energy-efficient data centres.
Europe has a strong know-how in renewable-energy technologies too. Europe is ahead of thinking in
Smart Cities and Internet of Things (for example low-power home networks, embedded capability
to join the network), which combined with energy efficient technologies can make a real difference.

NGC Roadmap Study

57

Europes scientific and engineering communities in parallel and in high-performance computing are
of very high quality with particular strengths in engineering and algorithm development and
expertise in high-value industry specific applications. High-performance computing centres are well
networked and supported by research funding initiatives. There is a strong science base in electronics
and optical products as well as in embedded and real-time systems.
Table 4: Specific sector strengths in selected regions of Europe 2

EU Region / Member State

Strengths

Benelux

Data Centres, Hosting, Cloud, Software

D-A-CH

Hardware, Software, Data Centres, Hosting,

Finance/Banking, Automotive

France

Mobile, Aerospace, Data Centres, Travel services, Smart

Technologies

Nordics

Mobile, Internet & Services, Biosciences/Biomedical,

Digital Technologies, Energy efficiency

Spain

Biosciences/Biomedical, Communications, Data Centres,

Travel services

UK&I

Hosting, Cloud, Internet & Services, Big Data/Data

Analytics, Finance/Banking, Mobile, Data Centres,
Automotive

Europe has proven experience in addressing new technological trends and governmental issues
(interoperability, convergence) including global policies. European companies (including SMEs) and
researchers are used to working in different cultural environments, across country borders, and in
international teams.
European Weaknesses
Europe has a significant flaw when it comes to knowledge transfer between industry and academia.
There are often fewer industry links and exchanges with the academic world than in other
industrialized countries. This does not foster an appropriate investment in truly innovative European
technologies emerging from scientific research. European researchers on the other hand are less
active than academics in other countries in marketing their results also economically. In addition,
European start-ups are often hindered by a lack of European venture capital and bureaucracy.
Europe needs tighter coordination between EU, regional and national RTDI efforts and programmes.
Coordination of research and strategy between European member states is a huge challenge and
time-consuming. Some member state regulations hinder cloud implementation.
Europe has significantly fewer major players in the computing sector compared to the US and a
majority of microprocessors, GPUs, and memory systems are designed outside Europe.3 The main
cloud providers are not European and few resource infrastructures are available in Europe. Europe is

Based on company ranking data from Truffle100, Red Herring Europe 2012, Forbes etc. (www.truffle100.com,
www.redherring.com, www.forbes.com)
Important exceptions are ARM for processors and Bull for high-performance computing.

NGC Roadmap Study

58

primarily a consumer not provider. The development of new cloud technologies is weak in Europe
compared to the US. Europe lacks a market ecosystem around European providers.
There is a fragmented SME market in software engineering and a lack of critical size which makes it
challenging to create sustainable and globally competitive ecosystems.
Europe is not investing as much in high-performance computing as other regions and European rank
Japan and US ahead of Europe in high-performance computing research.
Opportunities for Europe
Europe has good basic research in several fields and an outstanding education system. Europe has
the potential to retain talent (for example researchers) and could become more attractive to young
experts coming from other parts of the world. This is an opportunity not only for research, but also in
order to guarantee a critical skilled workforce as required by industry (for example technology and
service providers).
In many current or predicted growth markets, Europes global position is still very good, for example
health, energy, automotive, aeronautics. Europe can achieve leadership in cross-domain technology
transfer between adjacent or converging fields (for example energy efficiency and smart city, cloud
computing and Internet of Things, etc.).
Building on its strong background in basic research, Europe can invest efficiently in agile
programming models; software design and development; assembly and integration of components;
and product management.
Technology disruption creates an opportunity for low-power high-performance computing with
companies such as ARM at the forefront. New technologies will allow easy fractional billing and
support/open up opportunities offered by the Internet of Things.
Europe has one of the worlds most competitive markets for high-performance computing. There is
also an opportunity for application and product innovation in selected applications at low cost for
SMEs. High-performance resources could be made more widely available especially to SMEs through
economic models similar to cloud technologies.
There are significant opportunities for multi-cloud application management such as next generation
cloud brokers, federation, and interoperability. Simplification of existing infrastructure can make
cloud systems more efficient; there are opportunities for more intelligent governance of data centres
and tighter integration of hard and software (for example interface).
There are still growing markets for components and systems. European expertise in low-power and
embedded systems has the potential to be exploited for solutions in the environment, energy and
mobility domains. There is a strong trend towards CPS systems and internet-of-things.
There is an opportunity to make legislation (for example data protection) simpler, supportive, and
harmonised across the EU so these rules foster innovation within the EU and elsewhere. European
governments could lead by example (for example adopt new technologies, consolidate government
operated data centres) and this way foster innovation.

NGC Roadmap Study

59

Threats for Europe

There is a weak supply of scientists and engineers, in particular in the computing areas. The US
attracts innovative European ideas, and it is more attractive for European talents too. The US is
better at setting well-defined goals/targets and exploiting innovative ideas commercially. The
structure of the European RTDI framework programme is not properly adapted to addressing quickly
changing market and technology needs.
Large and deep-pocketed US and APAC-based companies are acquiring small and innovative
European companies including independent software vendors. There is a danger of increased
European dependence on US and other non-EU providers. The US-based cloud infrastructure is
ahead of Europe where we lack Infrastructure-as-a-Service providers. It may already be too late to
build up local cloud resource infrastructure and too costly. Other regions of the world are catching up
quickly (for example mobile applications, cloud technology). Asian countries are moving from
production to R&D. They are catching up both at the low-end market and invest heavily in developing
their own high-end solutions (for example general purpose processor technologies such as Loongson).
There is a risk, that Europe will lose its dominance in low-power processors.
The following table provides information about particularly competitive sectors in Europes member
states (so-called competitiveness hotspots in Europe)4. Several EU member states exhibit clear
strengths in important ICT application sectors and future RTDI policies should aim at exploiting these
national strongholds. The table also indicates that a few sectors such as energy and transport are
promising ICT application areas in many European countries. Other such as food and agriculture are
strengths in many countries and could become key ICT application sectors in the future.

Competitiveness hotspots in Europe (Source: Research and innovation performance in EU member states and
associated countries, Innovation Union progress at country level; EC DG Research, Brussels).
(http://ec.europa.eu/research/innovation-union/pdf/state-of-theunion/2012/innovation_union_progress_at_country_level_2013.pdf)

NGC Roadmap Study

Table 5: Competitive sectors in Europes member states (so-called competitiveness hotspots in Europe)

60

NGC Roadmap Study

geothermal

61

NGC Roadmap Study

62

NGC Roadmap Study

63

7 Research Priorities
The scenarios facilitate the construction of a matrix listing broad technology areas and their
relevance to each scenario. This matrix is shown below including a ranking on a 3-point scale of high,
medium and low relevance to each of the seven scenarios. The purpose of this is to identify
technology areas with high cross-cutting relevance. These are further described in the
recommendations section of this chapter with special emphasis on cases where there is high value
across several (or all) scenarios.

All about me

All about us

Trains with brains

Connected brains

Health and Happiness

Renewtopia

At a factory near you

Table 6: Technology relevance matrix for the scenarios

Cyber-physical systems

Smart systems

Organic and large-area electronics

Smart materials

Customised and low-power computing

Energy technologies

Cognitive systems

Smart optical and wireless network

technologies

Advanced cloud infrastructures

Tools and methods for software

development

Advanced communications network

infrastructure

Big data analytics

Human learning and teaching

Gaming

Multimodal computer interaction

Industrial and service robotics

NGC Roadmap Study

64

7.1 Policy options and recommendations

7.1.1 Cross-area topics, politics and legislation
Make data protection and EU privacy policy and regulations more understandable for small
companies that do not have the resources to figure these out and harmonise rules across the EU.
Regulations should be simpler and supportive instead of being an obstacle for innovation. This should
include policies on scientific data. The EU member states have the potential to actively support
individual identity and privacy management with standards, exemplar applications,
recommendations and regulatory frameworks.
European governments should lead by example, consolidate government operated data centres,
adopt new capabilities and technologies and in this way foster innovation. For Europe existing US
models of privacy that dominate services today provide an opportunity for clear differentiation and
innovation.
The EC could support and incentivise European technology and service providers to cross-sell and
share technologies across multiple markets. For example, managing energy consumption in a data
centre and in an airport requires many common technologies. The aim should be for a smart EU
environment across all aspects of life and work. Elements of this will include connectivity for all for
example through successors to 4G, and trusted systems.
7.1.2 Innovation
European Universities and Research Centres should be more linked to the commercial world to foster
the investment in innovative technologies. Although this is still a big challenge all over Europe, there
are also successful examples in many European member states. These should be analysed and
advertised broadly. Options include professional incubator bodies, easy access to seed money and
start-up infrastructure, funding for joint industrial/academic research studentships and support for
patenting activities.
Healthcare is a significant vertical market for technology innovation. Telecommunications and
healthcare systems were identified as important application areas for next generation computing,
but also nuclear fusion, earth sciences and renewable energy as well as smart cities. It is
recommended that broad stakeholder groups continue to be involved, for example for health include
not only researchers and innovative SMEs, but also health organisations at the national level, private
health organisations and insurance companies to reflect the strong national differences across
Europe.
New and demanding areas such as digital-based manufacturing, product management and
assembling components require new core competencies and skills to exploit their full potential. It will
be necessary to bring together actors from the computing and manufacturing sectors (for example
machine suppliers, manufacturers) and to accelerate skill formation both at the academic and
industry level.
Information science is key focus on improving skills to analyse the information that enables people
to make better decisions. Advanced collaborative knowledge tools will be key elements. This should
go in parallel with the current hype around Big Data and cloud-based data analytics services.

NGC Roadmap Study

65

The consumerisation of IT, i.e. the fact that consumers are now in the drivers seat for IT innovation,
demands that companies embrace user-driven innovation also in their business processes. This
includes the trends towards bring-your-own-device which is still a problem for enterprise IT. It will
also drive mobile apps for businesses where there is still huge potential in nearly all business areas
from supply chains or logistics to sales and maintenance.
Although MOOCs (massive open online courses) are primarily a content-related topic, they can also
impact on next generation computing when combined with the trend to gamification (i.e. the use of
game thinking non-game contexts). Increasingly they should also be accessible with mobile devices.
Stakeholders in this area include academic institutions, but also computing associations, SMEs in the
education sector and gaming companies including start-ups. In a similar direction, we expect to see
innovative applications of crowd computing. The term has been used to describe tools enabling idea
and knowledge sharing, collaboration and collective decision-making of large numbers of people, for
example regarding political issues or projects. The time has come for large-scale crowd computing
deployment both in private and public sectors.
There have been actions in the EU to support open data initiatives with an emphasis on public data.
To realise the benefits of new forms of cooperation, these approaches need to be expanded to
scientific data where incentives are largely missing for scientists to make their data bases publicly
accessible. The EU and the member states should incentivise publication of data, for example in the
case of funded research and innovation projects.
7.1.3 Standards
In general, interoperability of systems will remain a major challenge for standardisation. This needs
to be addressed at many different levels and with a view of different non-functional system
requirements, for example cost, security, privacy, sustainability (legacy). Priorities will include open
interfaces for services and industry wide communication standards. Specific European challenges
include code produced in different countries, communication between systems, frequencies and
protocols. It is also necessary to include an end user perspective with issues such as mobility in
European countries (for example pan-European toll systems, cross-border roaming hand-over,
connectivity). Industry should take a lead in the standardization of interfaces in heterogeneous
systems. The goal should be an agile market place of services.
Community-led open-source developments have the potential to disrupt the marketplace (and make
it competitive) by making it easy for smaller market players to jump in and try their chances, without
necessarily destroying the leading players in the market. An example is OpenStack which delivers a
massively scalable cloud operating system with a modular approach. Such initiatives can benefit from
recognition and lean support at EU level and from bringing together stakeholders from industry,
research, SMEs etc.
Several areas such as cloud technologies and the internet-of-things will particularly benefit from
interoperability and standardization. Many countries including the large economies of the world are
already pushing their standards in this area. It is important that European actors are aware of these
activities, exploit their potential and contribute to standardisation and interoperability initiatives.

NGC Roadmap Study

66

7.2 Research programme recommendations

7.2.1 Software and application development
General purpose hardware is becoming a commodity and hardware technology is expensive to
develop. For this reason, Europe should put a strong focus on software and on the IP in hardware
design. With all the convergence happening, software and IP is also where the commercial and
economic value will be and not primarily in mass production. The exceptions are special-purpose
hardware, in particular in the embedded and real-time computing segment but also in safety-critical
or defence applications. In a similar line, IP and design development will be important value drivers in
the computing market: chip design, system and software design and development; new, more agile
programming models; tools to easily develop software/applications for complex systems and their
management considering smart devices, data analytics, tools for porting code quickly and easily.
Research priorities should include autonomous systems together with dynamic and reconfigurable
computing (including self-programming software) and dependable systems.
There is a strong persisting demand for breakthroughs in managing the complexities of software and
systems design including the challenges of parallelism and heterogeneous components paired with
the need to manipulate massive data sets. This may spur research into new programming models to
deal with parallelism and heterogeneity, but also address space models- and matching programming
models to the diverse architectures of the future. An important remaining challenge is the issue of
migrating existing application and developing new ones adapted to be run on millions of cores and
new software tools, adapted to the needs of the new applications. We need much better tools to
harvest the potential of multicore systems and parallelism. Research actions should include handling
dynamics in multicore systems during runtime.
The design of large software systems is still suffering from huge inefficiencies at many levels from
work productivity to reuse and code overhead. Approaches and tools for improving software design
efficiency are still in demand but also require integrated tool chains including testing, distribution,
maintenance, interoperability and legacy integration.
We are lacking systems facilitating connectivity management in a user-friendly fashion. Future
network infrastructure and management systems should do away with the need to maintain
personal databases of networks, passwords, terms and conditions of usage, pricing models and such
like for a broad range of personal devices. Technologies to facilitate this could include location-based
service delivery, generalized policies and pricing models and individual service delivery preference
models and registries.
7.2.2 Cloud
In the area of the cloud, it will be important to simplify existing infrastructure and devise more
efficient systems; ensure closer integration of IT and facilities (for example modular data centre);
provide intelligent governance of data centres; facilitate tight integration of hardware and software
(for example interface). Integration of data centres with renewable energy sources will underpin
much of this. Other important topics are multi-cloud application management including next
generation cloud brokers, federation and interoperability. Novel Big Data services require high-speed
analytics based on advanced cloud services hosted in secure autonomic data centres.

NGC Roadmap Study

67

The EC could support the development of approaches or standards to increase interoperability

between cloud services and infrastructure providers in order to enable efficient interworking and
migration of services, applications and data.
It will be important to combine individual SMAC (social, mobile, analytics and cloud) technologies.
These individual technologies have developed well over the last few years, the combination of the
four is expected to cause big shifts and disruptions in several technology areas, industries and
business models.
Also, the dynamic configuration, automated provisioning and orchestration of cloud resources would
result in improved availability, flexibility and elasticity of services; and would facilitate a coherent
deployment of distributed applications over heterogeneous infrastructures and platforms from
multiple providers. Important stakeholders include service providers from the hosting, cloud and
telecom industries.
Issues of security and privacy require more attention both in research and in innovation. New cloud
technologies and applications must be made cyber-attack proof. Research should address multiple
levels of security and privacy in distributed networks, secure services from non-trusted hardware,
but also include non-technical issues such as security rights and obligations, management of security
and privacy expectations, user-centric approaches to privacy and security.
7.2.3 Embedded and Cyber Physical Systems (CPS)
Europe should focus on leveraging existing strengths in embedded systems to the cyber-physical
domain. The vision is for smart, networked CPS incorporating parallelism using onboard multicore.
It will be important to support the whole value chain from components (with an emphasis on design)
and systems to applications and services. While there is a strong trend for general-purpose
hardware to become a commodity, embedded and real-time hardware components will continue to
be important for European system integrators and vendors.
Apart from low power technologies, hardware and software research of FPGAs and embedded
multicore processors remains an important topic unless disruptive technologies emerge. Challenges
also remain in 3D heterogeneous integration, both for low-power and also possibly for efficient data
transfer.
Privacy in networked embedded devices and CPS should be addressed in research and innovation
projects. It will be necessary to develop privacy-maintaining technologies for embedded systems
based on existing and new theoretical approaches. Particular attention needs to be given to
informed choices for users who are now often unaware of the consequences of their use of
technology. User-centric approaches are required that facilitate privacy management over ranges of
applications and technologies.
Security aspects in embedded systems need to be considered in a broader societal, legal and political
context as well as in combination with standardisation, interoperability and legacy issues. Research in
embedded and CPS should include security from non-secure components. Stakeholders should
include end users such as utilities, citizens and governments.
Technologies that will allow fractional billing are key to support and open up a myriad of
opportunities offered by the Internet of Things. In this area, standardisation and integration will be
key, but constantly challenged by innovation and new players.

NGC Roadmap Study

68

Apart from standardisation, research is also needed on the underlying principles and best practices
for horizontal (common technical) and vertical (industry) integration. This also includes service
description and discovery mechanisms.
Specific European strengths such as those in energy efficiency and in particular in power electronics
require more attention also at the European level. This is an area where Europe is still strong in
hardware, but also in systems and applications. More integrated activities are needed bringing
together existing and new players in the value chain to foster innovation of energy efficient
technologies based on leading-edge power electronics.
Dealing with legacy systems will remain important also in business IT environments, but it is of
utmost importance in CPS (for example in the transportation domain). Systems such as airplanes are
required to be maintainable for a minimum of five, ten or even twenty years. There is relatively little
research in this field, in particular in relation to the size of the sector. Issues include porting to new
hardware, real-time behaviour, provable correctness etc.
Also in embedded and CPS heterogeneity, multicore and massively parallel computing remain key
challenges. Other emerging topics are reconfigurable and communication-centric architectures.
7.2.4 HPC
HPC is moving in two rather different directions: exascale systems and software as a priority topic on
the one hand and less emphasis on supercomputers on the other with more emphasis on cloud and
small devices (i.e. the mass market). In the former case there will be a need for applications that can
exploit exascale systems. In the case of HPC in cloud and small devices, low power HPC will be the
objective. Many application areas will be able to benefit including real-time modelling and
simulation.
Programming and tool-chains are important research and development directions. The ability to take
a single source code and transform it for high performance on a wide variety of hardware platforms
is central and key to productivity in all areas of computation in the coming decade.
Another important trend is complex real-time simulations integrating rich sensor data into the
simulation process in an automated fashion. Research is required on organizational frameworks and
tools but also in delivery models for broader user groups (for example SMEs) including on-demand
and pay-as-you-go service delivery. This is also a potential topic for cloud technologies and
stakeholders including database vendors, enterprise software houses, independent software vendors,
universities and technology providers.
7.2.5 Computing and power
There is strong demand for energy-efficient computing solutions, in terms of both components and
architectures. Specific measures should target a strategy around the ARM processors and including
research into energy efficient storage. Other topics include energy-aware computing, HW/SW
cooperation for low power, energy efficient memories and energy storage. Efficient use of multicore
is a clear example where an opportunity exists.
Generally, Europe is leading in energy-efficiency (especially carbon emissions), not only regulationwise, but in terms of products too. There are opportunities for energy efficiency and data centres in
Northern Europe due to technologies such as fresh air cooling, liquid cooling, on-site clean
energy generation and local sharing via micro grids.

NGC Roadmap Study

69

In this context, the use of renewables is also important in general, as well as software that makes
data centres more efficient such as advanced DCIM (that make automated decisions, respond and
adapt to changes, diagnose and anticipate problems, etc) and the concept of the autonomic
datacentre.
Europe is ahead of thinking in smart cities and Internet of Things (for example low-power home
networks, embedded capability to join the network). Europe should exploit the opportunities to build
on both energy and smart city IP to harvest waste energy from computing.
Non-volatile RAM (NV-RAM) has the potential to induce major changes in system design both at
the hardware and software level. It not only affects booting, but also provides potential paradigm
shifts and opportunities in security, safety and recovery of computing systems. Europe should
therefore support the development of competencies in NV-RAM even if it does not become a major
hardware producer.
7.2.6 Advanced interfaces
Almost every technological, business and social trend indicates greater use of digital systems to the
point where they become pervasive in almost every aspect of life. This introduces challenges of how
interactions between human and computer, computer and computer and environment and
computer will be achieved. Technologies to support natural and immersive interfaces such as
advanced mixed-reality devices will have wide application and high impact, together with the
research into health, behavioural and psychological aspects of exposure to the ubiquitous digital
landscape.

7.3 Game-changing and disruptive technologies at the horizon

There are a number of computing technologies which are active research fields and have the
potential to disrupt whole business areas. These technologies could become real economic game
changers, but are not yet technically mature, neither are they economically viable at a large scale
today.
Although there have often been exaggerated hypes about such new technologies, it is important to
closely monitor and support development research in these fields to exploit potential opportunities
early. In the following section, we list a few of those potentially game-changing technologies for
which it is yet unclear whether they will reach maturity soon. The following technologies were
identified as potential breakthrough technologies in a 5-10 years timescale.
Quantum computing
Research on using quantum-mechanical phenomena to perform operations on data started in the
1980s. The field is still in its infancy, but quantum computational operations have already been
performed. Computation with superpositions of states promises the ability to solve large-scale
computational problems significantly faster than with any known and in some cases possible
probabilistic classical algorithm. In particular, there is strong interest in the potential application of
quantum computing to factorisation problem which in turn is of central importance in many
cryptographic applications. But quantum computing could also revolutionise other problems which
are computationally intractable today such as optimisation or database search problems. The related
technology of quantum cryptography is also an emerging field with many ongoing research projects
today.

NGC Roadmap Study

70

Cognitive digital assistants

Research and development on intelligent or cognitive assistants has a long tradition. In the past
many of the systems could not live up to the high expectations of users regarding robustness and
usefulness. Recently, however, systems supporting users in everyday tasks in a natural fashion have
become more robust and reliable. This includes natural language and speech interfaces for mobile
devices, trip planning and booking or translation services. A next wave of systems may be able to
integrate natural interfaces with robust planning, support interoperability with legacy systems and
provide the glue to compose truly useful, reliable and robust digital assistants.
Batteries and energy sources
Energy sources for computing devices will remain a major challenge, in particular for CPS. Future
systems will require components that do not need battery charging or connection to a centralised
power supply for long periods (i.e. years). Despite advances in new technologies such as energy
harvesting, major technology and application disruptions are to be expected from breakthroughs in
new battery and energy source technologies (supercapacitors, fuel cells, etc.)
Service robots and autonomous driving
The broad availability of autonomously mobile systems such as self-steering cars, delivery and
surveillance drones and other advanced service robots will be a major game changer provided that
the technology becomes widely accepted. Many technologies to support these systems are now
available or are in the later stages of development. Legal and social aspects, including most notably
security and privacy concerns of citizens still require attention. Stakeholders include telecom
industries, logistic service providers, automotive and other transport sector players. Autonomous
driving alone has the potential to change whole business and service sectors, even at earlier stages of
only semi-autonomous driving.
Smart materials
Advances in new materials for computing systems and devices have the potential to significantly
change the way in which computing is made available and used. Examples include
flexible/foldable/rollable/transformational screens and computing systems but also wearable and
washable devices. Research in areas such as graphene, organic semiconductors and printed
electronics promises to open new opportunities in particular with unconventional user interfaces.
This could lead to implantable and wearable computing, more screenless smartphones and personal
IT systems.

NGC Roadmap Study

71

8 Roadmap
8.1 Scenario-specific roadmaps
This section identifies major technological challenges and milestones per scenario including their
positioning on a time scale with respect to complexity / costs and importance / impact.
8.1.1 The Digital Citizen: Its all about me
Identified technological challenges and milestones relevant for this scenario:
Organic and large-area electronics

Advanced displays for natural and immersive interfaces

Smart materials and products

Implantable/wearable devices and sensors

Customised and low-power computing

Efficient use of multicore to address short to medium term hardware trends

Energy efficient architectures to enable low power personal devices and energy efficient
services

New energy efficient technology for processors and memory to allow step-change in energy
efficiency and cost of services, and in between-charge times for devices

Energy technologies

10x battery energy density to enable longer between-charge time for personal devices.
Energy harvesting to enable devices that never need connection to an external power supply

Cognitive systems

Autonomous cognitive systems capable of predictive modelling, particularly to support digital

assistants

Smart optical and wireless network technologies

Ubiquitous urban access so that at least in urban areas consumers are always connected via
high bandwidth

Advanced cloud infrastructures

Open interfaces for services to promote rapid service development, deployment and
interoperation.

Cyber-attack proof to promote trust in services and encourage uptake by all

Policy on strong encryption

Tools and methods for software development

Agile market place of services enabled by rich set of tools applicable across platforms and
skilled workforce

Advanced communications network infrastructure

6G networks to enable good connectivity for consumers and systems everywhere.

NGC Roadmap Study

72

Big data analytics

Robust real-time processing of data to support smart services and services which interact
with real time data from sensor networks

Multimodal computer interaction

Natural and immersive interfaces to support multi-modes of interaction (natural language

gesture, mood as input, audio, visual, tactile and augmented reality as output)

Digital assistant with cognitive abilities to act intelligently on behalf of the user

NGC Roadmap Study

73

8.1.2 The Digital Nation: Its all about us

Identified technological challenges and milestones relevant for this scenario:
Cognitive systems

Technologies for civil security, for example safety and crime prevention/detection (advanced
image and behaviour recognition)

Smart optical and wireless network technologies

Connectivity for all, focus on remote areas to avoid digital blind-spots

Advanced cloud infrastructures

Open interfaces for services to stimulate service creation and generate economic growth

Cyber-attack proof to encourage take-up and trust

Protection of privacy to ensure citizens rights

Multiple levels of security

Tools and methods for software development

Agile market place of services enabled by standards, cross platform tools and skilled
workforce to stimulate economic growth

Advanced communications network infrastructure

6G

Big data analytics

Exascale HPC applications to support critical systems

Big data analytics to support real-time government decision making

Multimodal computer interaction

Natural and immersive interfaces to support multi-modes of interaction (natural language

gesture, mood as input, audio, visual, tactile and augmented reality as output)

Digital assistant with cognitive abilities to act intelligently on behalf of the user

NGC Roadmap Study

74

NGC Roadmap Study

75

8.1.3 Intelligent Transport: Trains and other vehicles with brains

Identified technological challenges and milestones relevant for this scenario:
Cyber-physical systems

Massive parallel CPS with on-board multicore applications

Open Source EU Licence Standards

Device interfaces

Service interfaces

See also smart environment

Smart systems

Enhanced transportation services

o

New services based on transportation and travel including various vehicle types

eBay for single transportation jobs based on real-time data

Open interfaces to transportation systems

o

Market boost and enabler: Apps, providers, digital assistant applications

Open Source EU Licence Standards

o

Device interfaces

Service interfaces

Digital Assistants that use and combine various cloud data

Autonomous systems
o

Incorporating CPS, tracking systems, markers, sensors and actuators in the

environment -not capable of cognitive decisions

Smart environment for autonomous systems which is aware of vehicles, aircrafts and other
systems and can react on different situations. Sensors, networks and actuators integrated in
the environment

Energy technologies

Energy efficiency
o

Different phases: Growing importance relative to scarcity of resources

Battery technologies
o

New high-density batteries for devices, vehicles, drones

Extended range, extended payload, enabling new technologies

Avoid data deluge see also section Big data analytics

NGC Roadmap Study

76

Cognitive systems

Digital Assistants
o

Powerful assistant capabilities (travel & leisure, secretarial support) human like
cognitive decision making based on massive available data

Autonomous cognitive systems

o

Robust adaptation to dynamic environments

Advanced cloud infrastructures

Robust processing of real-time data (data coming from sensors, interfaces, vari. networks,
cloud,)
o

Deterministic and real time communication

Short and guaranteed response times

Tools and methods for software development

Avoid data deluge see also section Big data analytics

Advanced communications network infrastructure

Affordable European data roaming

6G
High bandwidth low latency

Coverage - mobile network coverage

Vehicle-to-Vehicle communication

Ad-hoc / mesh communication and distribution of information

Approaches to mediate between distributed and centralised approaches (car-to-car

vs travel databases, traffic control & management)

Dependable systems availability, performance, safety, security privacy, maintainability

Big data analytics

Avoid data deluge

o

Storing and transmitting the right amount of data

Find the appropriate level of detail based on the services or tasks

Multimodal computer interaction

Natural and robust interfaces

o

Robust natural language communication (also in noisy environments)

Gestures

NGC Roadmap Study

Privacy and security

Cyber-attack proof
o

Artificial immune systems to protect viable structures and networks

Personal profile protection (digital assistants, smart systems, etc.)

Privacy new trusted systems

o

Reliable and trusted communication

Crucial for various services and digital assistant scenarios (storage of profiles etc.)

77

NGC Roadmap Study

8.1.4 Education and Research: Connected brains
Identified technological challenges and milestones relevant for this scenario:
Cyber-physical systems

Advanced lab robotics

Virtual laboratory infrastructure (open, interoperable devices)

Customised and low-power computing

Low-power high-performance computing

Cognitive systems

Collaborative work support

Advanced knowledge management tools

Intelligent social network management

Advanced cloud infrastructures

Dynamically reconfigurable computing services

Large-scale open data repository and access services

Tools and methods for software development

Flexible, platform-independent simulation tools

Self-adaptive (data-driven) simulation development software

MOOC methodologies (Massive Open Online Courses)

Advanced communications network infrastructure

Low-latency broad bandwidth networks

Big data analytics

Robust anomaly and novelty detection

High speed analytics based on cloud services

Multimodal computer interaction

Intuitive user interfaces for big data analysis

Advanced mixed reality devices

Privacy and security

Secure communication systems (email, social networks)

Industrial and service robotics

Advanced laboratory robots

Virtual lab infrastructure

78

NGC Roadmap Study

79

NGC Roadmap Study

80

8.1.5 Future Healthcare: Health and happiness in the digital age

Identified technological challenges and milestones relevant for this scenario:
Cyber-physical systems

Examples see smart materials and products

Smart systems

Examples see smart materials and products

Smart materials and products

Smart systems that can operate interactively and autonomously. Smart systems that can
connect and integrate with hospital interactive platforms and networks, smart medicine
cabinets, smart dressings, data centres, wider government infrastructure and facilities via
smart systems
Wearable Computing such as smart watches, smart dressings and implantable devices.
Wearable computing with intelligent interfaces to combine user inputs and outputs
Lab-on-a-chip integrating one or more laboratory functions via a single chip
Customised and low-power computing

Energy efficient - smart systems with more battery power and which require fewer
connections to main power supply

Smart optical and wireless network technologies

Advanced cloud infrastructures

Secure Data Centres which securely store the data from smart devices, network platforms
and VTEs

Secure Data Centres which support the utilisation of technologies, and which optimise
energy usage

Tools and methods for software development

Virtual Training Environments (VTEs) - simulated medical environments to train health

professionals. VTEs which have advanced software to test the practitioner. VTEs that
interact with sensors, control surfaces to dermine progress of simulation, current or
historical data and values output from simulation

Advanced software to capture and track for example vital signs tracking and transmit this
data to the hospital networked interactive platform

Advanced communications network infrastructure

Ubiquitous Networking - facilitating the use of any device, in any location, and in any format

Going beyond 6+ generation of mobile phone communication technology standards to

improve networks and wireless systems. Improving capabilities and connectivity.

Telepresence technologies to support interaction and communication between patients and

medical providers

NGC Roadmap Study

81

Big data analytics

Data Management Systems which are intuitive and are capable of interacting with the user,
smart devices and the database to capture and analyse data ultimately a system which can
make automated decisions and adapt to change

Real-time Processing of Data analytics to support the processing of data from smart
devices, hospital network and VTEs

Multimodal computer interaction

Engaging and immersive interfaces to support the hospital networked interactive platform

Interfaces which support interaction for example audio, video and natural language

Interfaces which maintain user information

Interfaces which explain results to the user

Privacy and security

Ensuring devices, networks and platforms are Security proof and are protected from cyberattacks to ensure trust and confidence in technology from users perspective

Protecting Privacy of data to ensure privacy and data protection laws adhered

Personalised Medical Services providers embracing technology to provide secure and

personalised medical services to patients

NGC Roadmap Study

82

NGC Roadmap Study

83

8.1.6 Living with scarce resources: Renewtopia

Advanced Communications Network Infrastructure

6th generation mobile networks and wireless systems with 10x 4G bandwidth levels, lowlatency and integrated Wi-Fi; self-healing and self-optimising capabilities; context awareness

Multimodal Computer Interaction

Wearable computing and devices

Intelligent, multimodal interfaces able to combine different types of inputs and outputs (for
example speech, gesture, etc.)

Advanced software able to capture, process and manage multimodal input/output

Advanced Cloud Infrastructure

Dynamic configuration, automated provisioning and orchestration of cloud resources

Best Execution Venues - users able to make rational decisions about how and where to run
applications and tasks based upon workload profile, policies and SLA requirements

Federated cloud networking

Autonomic data centre

o

advanced, dynamic and policy-based capabilities for better resource management,

and to help drive up and optimise the utilisation of IT, as well as to optimize energy
use

End-to-end virtualization and security, and dynamic service management

Advanced DCIM systems that make automated decisions, respond and adapt to
changes, diagnose and anticipate problems (a single management system that
manages and monitors all equipment and conditions)

Customised and Low-Power Computing/ICT

Power-proportional computing and IT

Smart technologies and materials such as silicon photonics and graphene

New memory technologies

Energy Technologies

On-site clean energy generation and sharing via smart micro-grids

Energy storage and reuse, new battery technologies

Smart energy management

Integration of renewable sources with data centres, low-power technologies, infrastructure

and facilities

Integration of data centres with buildings and smart-city technologies

Big Data Analytics

Dynamic and real-time data analysis coupled with simulation

NGC Roadmap Study

84

NGC Roadmap Study

85

8.1.7 Future Manufacturing: At a factory near you

Identified technological challenges and milestones relevant for this scenario:
Cyber-physical systems

Software driven cyber-physical control systems

Smart and networked CPS

o

Self-aware and contextually aware connected devices with self-programming and AI

capabilities

M2M, M2Network and M2Component connectivity

Smart systems

Improved sensors for smart, remote and autonomous condition monitoring

Self-aware and connected machinery, robotics and components

Self-learning and smart systems that can make decisions based on real time analytics and
forecasting

Smart materials and products

Products that can sensualise their environment, use and provide feedback for future design
improvements and material / energy usage

Customised and low-power computing

Low power computing units within products, components and machinery

Energy technologies

Energy harvesting, distribution and charging of portable batteries

Cognitive systems

Self-ware systems that are aware of surrounding environment and can interact with other
machinery and components / products

AI that can self-programme depending on product / production / logistics and supply chain
requirements

Advanced communications network infrastructure

Secure and robust connectivity required to accommodate multiple user base on an open and
transparent system

Open and global connectivity and communication standards

Industry wide communication standards for m2m, m2c and m2n communications

In a more collaborative world and one where manufacturing comprises a connected and
distributed series of processes with increasingly intelligent, connected and self-learning
machinery and systems, cyber security will become an increasingly critical essential that will
underpin all aspects of next generation computing

NGC Roadmap Study

86

Advanced cloud infrastructures

Secure cloud infrastructures that can accommodate transfer, storage and processing of large
volumes of data in real time

Cloud based platforms that can accommodate supply chain collaboration for the provision of
new and enlarged services for SMEs and small companies.

Tools and methods for software development

Self-programming software that can re-programme based on usage and intelligence gained
from real time data analytics and modelling / simulation and experiential feedback loops

Big data

Use of software and systems to capture, transfer, store and analyse highly complex datasets
in real time that is geographically and contextually dispersed and extract value for input into
a smart connected network

Real-time modelling & simulation - A new generation of modelling and simulation will be
required to exploit the large of amounts of data being generated and to extract value and
make decisions in real time.

This will include closed loop life cycle management of components and materials that are
utilised in both the product and the manufacturing process

NGC Roadmap Study

87

NGC Roadmap Study

88

8.2 Combined European Roadmap

Based on the interviews, the desk research, the online-consultation and the experts input at the
workshops the 7 roadmaps covering each of the introduced scenarios were designed. Based on these
roadmaps and the expert discussions at the 2nd workshop a combined view of the major milestones
and challenges could be derived. A final discussion of this combined roadmap and recommendations
for the focus of future work programmes are given in chapter Roadmap of this report.

NGC Roadmap Study

89

Acknowledgements
This study was prepared in the frame of the EC service contract SMART 2012/0052 A comparative
analysis of potential options for a roadmap-based initiative on next generation computing.
We thank all experts for their valuable contributions during the interviews and the discussions at the
workshops as well as all participants of the online consultation for their views on Next Generation
Computing. Special thanks to Stephane Requena and Jan Stowisek for the support of the French
translation and to Tom Mackinger from tomillu.com for the illustrations.

Next Generation Computing Roadmap

Luxembourg, Publications Office of the European Union
2014 98

ISBN 978-92-79-37580-4
DOI: 10.2759/4587

CATALOGUE NUMBER

European Commission

NUMBER
CATALOGUE
KK-02-14-479-EN-N

DOI: 10.2759/4587

ISBN 978-92-79-37580-4