INTRODUCTION AND FOCUS QUESTIONS

Do you think it is possible for you to determine the chance of occurrence of an event?
Have you at a certain time asked yourself the following questions?
What are my chances of
getting the correct answer
in a True/False-type
question? Multiple choice-
type of question?
Should I bring my
umbrella
tomorrow?
Will I probably win in
this game?
What are the possible
routes that I can take in
going to school?
How likely is it that I will
be called to recite in our
math class today?
MODULE MAP
PROBABILITY
BASIC CONCEPTS
EXPERIMENTAL
PROBABILITY
THEORETICAL
PROBABILITY
COUNTING
TECHNIQUES
PROBLEMS INVOLVING
PROBABILITY OF SIMPLE
EVENTS
Experimental Probability
Experimental Probability is the
probability of an outcome of an
event based on an experiment. The
more experiments we do, the closer
the probabilities get to the
theoretical probability.
WORKSHEET
Mrs. Castro asked her students to do an activity. Afterwards, her
students noticed that the experimental probability of tossing tails is
48%, while the mathematical/theoretical probability is 50%. Being an
attentive student, how would you explain this to your classmates?
a. The experimental probability is wrong.
b. We should always rely on mathematical/theoretical
probability.
c. It is normal for experimental probabilities to vary from the
theoretical probabilities but for a large number of trials, the
two will be very close.
d. It is abnormal for the experimental probabilities to differ
from the mathematical/theoretical probabilities because the
results must be the same.
THE ANSWER IS
c. It is normal for experimental probabilities to vary from
the theoretical probabilities but for a large number of
trials, the two will be very close.


Probability Experiment is a chance process that leads
to a well-defined result called an outcome.

Examples: Flipping a coin
Rolling a die

Outcome is the result of a single trial of an experiment.


Probability Experiment

Experiment Sample Space Sample Point
Flipping two coins HH, HT, TH, TT HH
Rolling a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 5
Rolling a coin and a die
simultaneously
H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6
T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6
T3
Drawing a card from a deck
of 52 cards
13 Diamonds, 13 Hearts,
13 Spades, 13 Clubs (Ace,
2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,
Jack, Queen, King)
Queen of Hearts
Queen is not a sample point because there are four
Queens which are four different sample points in a
deck of cards.
Event is any set of one or more outcomes satisfying
some given conditions.
Examples:
a. Getting a TTT when flipping a coin thrice
b. Choosing a Queen from a deck of cards (any of
the 4 Queens)
c. Getting an odd number (1, 3, or 5) when rolling a
die
Use the basic concepts of probability to identify the following. Write
each answer on the illustration board.
1.
5
6

2. Tail
3. 50%
4. Right, Wrong
5. KING of Spades
6. Rolling an odd number (1, 3 or 5)
7. Flipping a 10-peso coin five times
8. Getting a head in a single toss of coin
9. The chance that something will happen
10. The result of a single trial of an experiment
11. Tossing a coin and rolling a die simultaneously
12 Set of all possible outcomes of an experiment
13. Guessing the number of marbles in a container
14. Choosing an ACE from a deck of standard cards
15. A chance process which leads to well defined results
G
R
O
U
P

A
C
T
I
V
I
T
Y

1
.

P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y


2
.

S
a
m
p
l
e

p
o
i
n
t


3
.

P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y


4
.

S
a
m
p
l
e

s
p
a
c
e


5
.

S
a
m
p
l
e

p
o
i
n
t


6
.

S
a
m
p
l
e

p
o
i
n
t


7
.

E
x
p
e
r
i
m
e
n
t


8
.

E
v
e
n
t


9
.

P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y


1
0
.

O
u
t
c
o
m
e


1
1
.

E
x
p
e
r
i
m
e
n
t


1
2
.

S
a
m
p
l
e

s
p
a
c
e


1
3
.

E
x
p
e
r
i
m
e
n
t


1
4
.

E
v
e
n
t


1
5
.

E
x
p
e
r
i
m
e
n
t


ANSWER KEY
Theoretical Probability
Theoretical Probability is the
probability that is calculated using
math formulas. This is the probability
based on math theory.
Probability of Events
Probability of Events
The probability of an event, P (event), is a number
from 0 to 1 which tells how likely the event is to
happen.
Take a closer look at the probability line below.

never to
happen
to happen about
half the time
sure to
happen
0
1
4

1
2

3
4

1

1. The probability of any event is a number (either a fraction, a decimal or
a percent) from 0 to 1.
Example: The weather forecast shows a 70% rain
P (rain) = 70%
2. If an event will never happen, then its probability is 0.
Example: When a single die is rolled, find the probability of getting an 8.
Since the sample space consists of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, it is impossible to
get an 8. Hence, P(9) = 09 = 0.
3. If an event is sure to happen, then the probability is 1.
Example: When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of getting a
number less than 7?
Since all the outcomes {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} are less than 7,
P (number less than 7) = 66 = 1
4. The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample space is
1.
Example:
In rolling a fair die, each outcome in the sample space has a probability of
16.
Hence, the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes is 1.
If a fair coin is flipped, P (T) = 12 and P (H) = 22
Solve the following carefully, then write the correct answer on the
space provided before each number.

_____ 1. Ear Darenz is asked to choose a day from a week. What is the
probability of choosing a day which starts with S?
_____ 2. Choosing a month from a year, what is the probability of
selecting a month with 31 days?
_____ 3 . If a letter is chosen at random from the word PERSEVERANCE,
what is the probability that the letter chosen is E?
_____4. If one letter is chosen at random from the word
TRUSTWORTHY, what is the probability that the letter chosen is a
consonant?
_____ 5. The sides of a cube are numbered 11 to 16. If Jan Renz rolled
the cube once, what is the probability of rolling a composite number?
_____ 6. A box contains 7 red balls, 5 orange balls, 4 yellow balls, 6
green balls and 3 blue balls. What is the probability of drawing out an
orange ball?
G
R
O
U
P

A
C
T
I
V
I
T
Y

_____7. Of the 45 students in a class, 25 are boys. If a student is
selected at random for a field trip, what is the probability of selecting a
girl?
_____ 8. Two fair coins are tossed simultaneously, what is the
probability of showing tail (T) first and head (H) next?
_____ 9. A spinner is divided equally and numbered as follows: 1, 1, 2,
3, 3, 4, 1, 1, 2, 4, 1,2, 3, 4, 1, 2. What is the probability that the pointer
will stop at an even prime?
_____ 10. What is the probability of getting an 8 from a deck of 52
cards?
1.
2
7
6.
5
25
or
1
5

2.
7
12
7.
20
45
or
4
9

3.
4
12
or
1
3
8.
1
4

4.
9
11
9.
4
16
or
1
4

5.
4
6
or
2
3
10.
4
52
or
1
13

1. Which of the following DOES NOT belong to the group?
a. Chance
b. Interpretation
c. Possibilities
d. Uncertainty

2. All the possible outcomes that can occur when a coin is
tossed twice are listed in the box. What is the probability of
having a head?
a. 14
b. 12
c. 34
d. 1
3. The local weather forecaster said there is a 20% chance of
rain tomorrow. What is the probability that it will not rain
tomorrow?
a. 0.2 b. 0.8 c. 20 d. 80

4 A quiz contains three multiple choice-type questions and two
true/false-type questions. Suppose you guess the answer
randomly on every question. The table below gives the
probability of each score.




What is the probability of failing the quiz (getting 0, 1, 2, or 3
correct) by guessing?
a. 0.047 b. 0.575 c. 0.773 d. 0.953
Score 0 1 2 3 4 5
Probability 0.105 0.316 0.352 0.180 0.043 0.004
5. A spinner with three equal divisions was spun 1000 times.
The following information was recorded. What is the probability
of the spinner landing on RED?


a. 27% b. 29% c. 45% d.
73%

6. Suppose you toss two fair coins once, how many possible
outcomes are there?
a. 1 b. 2 c. 4 d. 8

7. A number cube is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a
number that is not 3?
a.
0
6
or 0 b.
1
6
c.
5
6
d.
6
6
or 1
Outcome Blue Red Yellow
Spins 448 267 285
8. In a 500-ticket draw for an educational prize, Anas name was
written on 41 tickets. What is the probability that she would win?
a. 0.082 b. 0.122 c. 0.41 d. 0.82

9. Which of the following is TRUE?
a. Answering a true/false-type question has one possible
outcome.
b. Flipping a coin thrice has 3 possible outcomes.
c. The probability of getting a head when a coin is tossed
can be expressed as
1
2
, 0.5 or 50%.
d. The probability of rolling 7 in a die is
1
7
.
10. The weather forecaster has announced that Region 1 has
rainy (R), partly cloudy (PR) and cloudy (C) weather. If the
chance of having R is twice as the probability of PR which is
2
7
.
What is the correct table for probability?
a.


b.


c.


d.
Outcome R PR C
Probabilit
y
1
7

4
7

2
7

Outcome R PR C
Probabilit
y
1
7

2
7

4
7

Outcome R PR C
Probabilit
y
4
7

2
7

1
7

Outcome R PR C
Probabilit
y
4
7

1
7

2
7

11. A glass jar contains 40 red, green, blue and yellow marbles.
The probability of drawing a single green marble at random is
1
5
.
What does this mean?
a. There are 5 green marbles in the glass jar.
b. There are 8 green marbles in the glass jar.
c. There are more green marbles than the others.
d. There is only one green marble in the glass jar.

12. In a restaurant, you have a dinner choice of one main dish,
one vegetable, and one drink. The choices for main dish are
pork and chicken meat. The vegetable choices are broccoli and
cabbage. The drink choices are juice and water. How many
choices are possible?
a. 8 b. 10 c. 12 d. 14
13. Arlene Joy got coins from her pocket which accidentally
rolled on the floor. If there were 8 probable outcomes, how
many coins fell on the floor?
a. 3 b. 4 c. 8 d. 16

14. In a family of 3 children, what is the probability that the
middle child is a boy?
a.
1
8
b.
1
4
c.
1
3
d.
1
2


15. Jun rolls two dice. The first die shows a 5. The second die
rolls under his desk and he cannot see it. NOW, what is the
probability that both dice show 5?
a.
1
36
b.
1
6
c.
9
36
d.
1
3

16. Mrs. Castro asked her students to do an activity. Afterwards,
her students noticed that the experimental probability of tossing
tails is 48%, while the mathematical/theoretical probability is
50%. Being an attentive student, how would you explain this to
your classmates?
a. The experimental probability is wrong.
b. We should always rely on mathematical/theoretical
probability.
c. It is normal for experimental probabilities to vary from
the theoretical probabilities but for a large number of trials,
the two will be very close.
d. It is abnormal for the experimental probabilities to
differ from the mathematical/theoretical probabilities because
the results must be the same.
17. You decided to order a pizza but you have to choose the
type of crust and the toppings. If there are only 6 possible
combinations of ordering a pizza, from which of the following
should you choose from?
a. Crust: thin or deep dish
Topping: cheese or pepperoni
b. Crust: thin or deep dish
Topping: cheese, bacon or pepperoni
c. Crust: thin or deep dish
Topping: cheese, bacon, sausage or pepperoni
d. Crust: thin or deep dish
Topping: cheese, bacon, sausage, pepperoni or hotdog
18. There are four teams in a basketball tournament. Team A
has 25% chance of winning. Team B has the same chance as
Team D which has 5% more than team A. Team C has half the
chance of winning as team B. Which of the following has the
correct table of probabilities for winning the tournament?

a.

b.


c.


d.
Team A B C D
Probability of
Winning
25% 30% 15% 30%
Team A B C D
Probability of
Winning
25% 20% 20% 35%
Team A B C D
Probability of
Winning
25% 15% 15% 45%
Team A B C D
Probability of
Winning
25% 15% 10% 50%
19. You tossed a five-peso coin five times and you got heads
each time. You tossed again and still a head turned up. Do you
think the coin is BIASED? Why?
a. I think the coin is biased because it favored the heads.
b. I think the coin is biased because it is expected to turn
up tail for the next experiments.
c. I think the coin is not biased because both faces of the
coin have equal chances of turning up.
d. I think the coin is not biased because the probability of
turning heads up is
3
4
while that of tails is only
1
4
.
20. Your best friend asked you to accompany him to a carnival
to play games of chances. According to him, his horoscope
states that he is so lucky that day and he wants to try his luck at
the carnival. How will you convince him not to go to the
carnival?
a. I will ask him to review very well his notes on
probability so that he can apply them to a real life
situation like this.
b. I will tell him that what is written in the horoscope is
sometimes true and sometimes false so he would rather
not go to the carnival.
c. I will give him instances wherein he could see the real
picture of having a very little chance of winning so that he
will not be wasting his money and time.
d. I will convince him not to go to the carnival this time
because we have to finish first our project in Probability.
Anyway, there will be other time to go and enjoy all the
games there.
1. B All the words refer to Probability except Interpretation.
2. C Three out of the 4 outcomes have three heads.
3. B 100% - 20% = 80% or 0.8
4. D 0.105 + 0.316 + 0.352 + 0.18 = 0.953 or 95.3%
5. A
267
1000
= 0.267 or 27%
6. C The 2 tosses of the coin are independent (the result of one does not
affect/depend on the other), thus there are 4 possible outcomes.
7. C 1
1
6
=
5
6

8. A
41
500
= 0.082 or 8.2%
9. C The probability of getting a head when a coin is tossed can be expressed as
1
2
, 0.5 or 50%.
10. C PR =
2
7
2PR = R
R = 2
2
7

2(PR) = 2
2
7

R =
4
7
;
4
7
+
2
7
+
1
7
=
7
7
or 1
ANSWER KEY
11. B
12. A
13. A A coin has 2 possible outcomes (H, T) 2 x 2 x 2 = 8
14. D Sample Space = BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB, GBG, GGB, GGG P =
4
8

or
1
2

15. B Since we already know that one of the dice shows a 5, the probability of
getting a 5 in the other die is
1
6
.
16. C
17. B 2(crust) x 3 (toppings) = 6 possible combinations
18. A Team A = 25%, Team B = Team D + 25% +5%, Team C = 100
(25+30+30) = 15
Therefore, 25% + 30% + 15% + 30% = 100%
19. C
20. C
Acelajado, Maxima J. ( 2008 ). Intermediate Algebra. pp.319 -326. Makati
City, Philippines. Diwa Learning Systems Inc.
Basilio, Faith B., Chua, Edna A., Jumawan, Maria T., Mangabat, Lawrence
Oliver A., Mendoza, Mario B., Pacho, Elsie M., Tamoria, Ferdinand V., Villena,
Eufrosina S.,Vizcarra, Florante O., Yambao, Teresa M. (2003). Fundamental
Statistics. Philippines. pp. 129 -133. Trinitas Publishing Inc.
Garcia, George A. (2003). Fundamental Concepts and Methods in Statistics
(Part 1). pp. 4 9. Manila, Philippines. University of Sto. Tomas Publishing
House.
Garcia, George A. (2004). Fundamental Concepts and Methods in Statistics
(Part 2). pp. 8 43. Manila, Philippines. University of Sto. Tomas Publishing
House.
Glencoe/McGRAW-HILL. (1986). Mathematics Skills for Daily Living. pp. 397 -
411. United States of America. Laidlaw Brothers, Publishers.
Price, Jack/ Rath, James N./ Leschensky, William.(1989). Pre- Algebra, A
Problem Solving Approach. pp. 420 430. Columbus, Ohio. Merrill Publishing
Co.
Copyright 2011MathsIsFun.com
www.mathsisfun.com/definitions/probability.html
These sites provide the picture of the probability line and definitions of the basic concepts.
http://intmath.com/counting-probability/2-basic-principles-counting.php
This site provides the picture for Activity 2, notes/tips on the basic counting principles.
http://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/probability
This site provides the definition of probability and other concepts.
www.algebra-clss.com/probability-problems.html
This site provides notes, pictures and examples of independent/dependent events.
www.algebra-class.com/theoretical-probability.html
This site provides notes, pictures and examples of Experimental Probability and Theoretical Probability.
http://www.onlinemathlearning.com/theoretical-probability.html
This site provides a video lesson on experimental and theoretical probability.
www. Learningwave.com/chapters/probability/dependent_independent.html
This site provides examples of dependent and independent events
http://www.mathworksheets4kids.com
This site provides exercises/ worksheets for the students to answer.
http://www.algebra-class.com/fundamental-counting-principle.html
This site provides the formula and examples of Fundamental Counting Principle.
www.virtualnerd.com/algebra-2/probability-statistics/fundamental-counting-principle-definition.php
This site provides a video lesson on Fundamental Counting Principle.
http://www.aaaknow.com/sta-basic-cntg.htm
This site provides notes on basic counting principles and practice exercises on finding the total possible outcomes.
http:// mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol16/intro-probability.html
This site provides examples and items for the Pre/Post Assessment.
http:// www.mathwire.com/games/datagames.html
This site provides enrichment games on Probability.
This site provides the formula and examples of Fundamental Counting Principle.
www.virtualnerd.com/algebra-2/probability-statistics/fundamental-counting-principle-definition.php
This site provides a video lesson on Fundamental Counting Principle.
http://www.onlinemathlearning.com/theoretical-probability.html
This site provides a video lesson on experimental and theoretical probability.
www. Learningwave.com/chapters/probability/dependent_independent.html
This site provides examples of dependent and independent events
http://www.mathworksheets4kids.com
This site provides exercises/ worksheets for the students to answer.
http://www.algebra-class.com/fundamental-counting-principle.html
This site provides the formula and examples of Fundamental Counting Principle.
www.virtualnerd.com/algebra-2/probability-statistics/fundamental-counting-principle-definition.php
This site provides a video lesson on Fundamental Counting Principle.
http://www.aaaknow.com/sta-basic-cntg.htm
This site provides notes on basic counting principles and practice exercises on finding the total possible
outcomes.
http:// mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol16/intro-probability.html
This site provides examples and items for the Pre/Post Assessment.
http:// www.mathwire.com/games/datagames.html
This site provides enrichment games on Probability.
This site provides the formula and examples of Fundamental Counting Principle.
www.virtualnerd.com/algebra-2/probability-statistics/fundamental-counting-principle-definition.php
This site provides a video lesson on Fundamental Counting Principle.
The contents of this portfolio is originally based
on the Grade 8 module of the K-12 curriculum in the
Philippines. The one who made this powerpoint
presentation does not claim the copyright of the original
module. Again, this is a copied module on Grade 8 K-12
curriculum.