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Math Biostatistics Boot Camp 1

This document contains the solutions to 6 questions from a homework assignment on mathematical biostatistics. The questions involve concepts like sensitivity and specificity of medical tests, probability calculations using Bayes' theorem, maximum likelihood estimation for Poisson and exponential distributions, and finding the maximum likelihood estimate of a parameter for a geometric distribution.

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Jerry Taylor
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3K views

Math Biostatistics Boot Camp 1

This document contains the solutions to 6 questions from a homework assignment on mathematical biostatistics. The questions involve concepts like sensitivity and specificity of medical tests, probability calculations using Bayes' theorem, maximum likelihood estimation for Poisson and exponential distributions, and finding the maximum likelihood estimate of a parameter for a geometric distribution.

Uploaded by

Jerry Taylor
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Mathematical Biostatistics Boot Camp 1 Homework

Week 3

1. (1 point) A web site (www.medicine.ox.ac.uk/bandolier/band64/b64-7.html) for home pregnancy tests cites the following: When the subjects using the test were women who collected and tested their own samples, the overall sensitivity was 75%. Specicity was also low, in the range 52% to 75%. Suppose a subject has a negative test. Assume the lower bound for the specicity. What number is closest to the multiplier of the pre-test odds of pregnancy to obtain the post-test odds of pregnancy given a negative test result? a. 1.5 b. 0.5 c. 2 d. 1 1. b.

Solution: 1 sensitivity 1 0.75 0.25 DLR = = = = 0.4808 0.5 specicity 0.52 0.52

2. (1 point) A web site (www.medicine.ox.ac.uk/bandolier/band64/b64-7.html) for home pregnancy tests cites the following: When the subjects using the test were women who collected and tested their own samples, the overall sensitivity was 75%. Specicity was also low, in the range 52% to 75%. Assume the lower value for specicity. Suppose a subject has a negative test and that 30% of women taking pregnancy tests are actually pregnant. What number is closest to the probability of pregnancy given a negative test? a. 30% b. 60% c. 90% d. 20% e. 80% f. 50% g. 40% h. 70% i. 10% 2. d.

Solution: P (preg|) = P (|preg)P (preg) P (|preg)P (preg) + P (|pregc )P (pregc ) (1 P (+|preg))P (preg) = (1 P (+|preg))P (preg) + P (|pregc )(1 P (preg)) (1 0.75)(0.30) 0.075 = = = 0.1708 20% (1 0.75)(0.30) + (0.52)(0.7) 0.439

3. (1 point) Suppose that hospital infection counts are models as Poisson with mean . Recall the Poisson mass x e for x = 0, 1, . . . Three independent hospitals are observed for one year and their function with mean is x! infection counts were 5, 4, and 6, respectively. What is the ML estimate for ? a. 0 b. 1 c. 4 d. 4.5 e. 5 f. 5.5 g. 6 3. e.

Solution: xk e x1 e x2 e x3 e x1 +x2 +x3 e3 5+4+6 e3 15 e3 = = = = xk ! x1 !x2 !x3 ! x1 !x2 !x3 ! x1 !x2 !x3 ! x1 !x2 !x3 ! i=1 We will take the derivative of this function and set it to zero. It will be easier rst to take logarithm of the = log f = 15 log() 3 log(x1 !x2 !x3 !) function and then nd the maximum: f d 15 Now, we nd the maximum: (15 log() 3 log(x1 !x2 !x3 !)) = 3 = 0 and solve for to get = 5. d
3

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4. (1 point) Let X1 , . . . , Xn be iid exponential( ). That is, having density estimate for ?
n n n 1 n 1

1 x/ e for x > 0. What is the ML


n

a.
i=1

xi n

b.
i=1

xi

c.
i=1

log(xi ) n

d.
i=1

xi

e.
i=1

log(xi ) n

f.
i=1

xi n

4.

a.

Solution: n 1 1 1 xi / 1 e = n e(x1 ++xn )/ = n e i=1

n i=1

xi

We will take the derivative of this function and set it to zero. It will be easier rst to take logarithm of the n = log f = 1 function and then nd the maximum: f xi n log i=1 d Now, we nd the maximum: d 1
n

xi n log
i=1 n

1 = 2 xi n

xi
i=1

n = 0 and solve for to get

=
i=1

5. (1 point) Let X be a geometric random variable. That is X counts the number of coin ips until one obtains the rst head. The mass function is P (X = x) = p(1 p)x1 for x = 1, 2, . . . What is the maximum likelihood estimate for p if one observes a geometric random variable? a. 1/(x 1) b. 1/x c. 1/2 d. 1/(x + 1) 5. b.

Solution: We want to nd the derivative of this function and set it to zero. It will be easier to take the logarithm of the function rst: log f = log(p) + (x 1) log(1 p) and now we take the derivative: d 1 x1 (log(p) + (x 1) log(1 p)) = =0 dp p 1p 1 and solve for p to get p = . x

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6. (1 point) Let X be a Poisson count with mean . Recall the Poisson mass function with mean is x = 0, 1, . . . What is the maximum likelihood estimate for ? a. b. 1/x c. 1/2 d. x2 e. x 6. Solution: First, we take the logarithm of the function to get: log f = x log() log(x!) now we take the derivative and set it to zero to get maximum: x d (x log() log(x!)) = 1 = 0 d and solve for to get = x.

x e for x!

e.

Question: Points: Score:

1 1

2 1

3 1

4 1

5 1

6 1

Total 6

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