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The Birthday Problem - Formula

The document discusses the formula for calculating the probability of two people sharing a birthday in a group of people. It explains that the probability of a match with N birthdays is 1 - (365)(364)(363)...(365 - N + 1)/(365)^N. A computer calculation shows the probability exceeds 0.5 for a group of 23 people and exceeds 0.9 for a group of less than 45 people. The document also provides a link to MathCAD programs and a graph demonstrating the birthday problem probabilities.

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Anshuman Prakash
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117 views

The Birthday Problem - Formula

The document discusses the formula for calculating the probability of two people sharing a birthday in a group of people. It explains that the probability of a match with N birthdays is 1 - (365)(364)(363)...(365 - N + 1)/(365)^N. A computer calculation shows the probability exceeds 0.5 for a group of 23 people and exceeds 0.9 for a group of less than 45 people. The document also provides a link to MathCAD programs and a graph demonstrating the birthday problem probabilities.

Uploaded by

Anshuman Prakash
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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5/29/13

The Birthday Problem- formula

A formula to accompany the Birthday Problem


Let's look at the probabilities a step at a time. For one person, there are 365 distinct birthdays. For two people, there are 364 different ways that the second could have a birthday without matching the first. If there is no match after two people, the third person has 363 different birthdays that do not match the other two. So, the probability of a match is 1 - (365)(364)(363)/(365)(365)(365). This leads to the following formula for calculating the probability of a match with N birthdays is 1 - (365) (364)(363)...(365 - N + 1)/(365)^N. Running this through a computer gives the chart below. Notice that a probability of over .5 is obtained after 23 dates!

Notice that the probability is above .9 before the sample size reaches even 45. Also, take a look at Lionel Mordecai's MathCAD programs. The algorithms are in an RTF file. It includes a nice graph of the output. He uses the programs in his statistics class. Return to the Introduction. Send comments to George Reese

mste.illinois.edu/reese/birthday/explanation.html

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