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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Jump to: navigation, search This article is about decision trees in decision analysis. For the use of the term in machine learning, see Decision tree learning. A decision tree is a decision support tool that uses a tree-like graph or model of decisions and their possible consequences, including chance event outcomes, resource costs, and utility. It is one way to display an algorithm. Decision trees are commonly used in operations research, specifically in decision analysis, to help identify a strategy most likely to reach a goal. If in practice decisions have to be taken online with no recall under incomplete knowledge, a decision tree should be paralleled by a probability model as a best choice model or online selection model algorithm
Advantages
Amongst decision support tools, decision trees (and influence diagrams) have several advantages: Decision trees:
Are simple to understand and interpret. People are able to understand decision tree models after a brief explanation. Have value even with little hard data. Important insights can be generated based on experts describing a situation (its alternatives, probabilities, and costs) and their preferences for outcomes. Use a white box model. If a given result is provided by a model, the explanation for the result is easily replicated by simple math. Can be combined with other decision techniques. The following example uses Net Present Value calculations, PERT 3-point estimations (decision #1) and a linear distribution of expected outcomes (decision #2):
[edit] Disadvantages
Decision trees:
For data including categorical variables with different number of levels, information gain in decision trees are biased in favor of those attributes with more levels.[1]