Munich wraps up as Ukraine faces the abyss

GREETINGS. The Munich Security Conference may be over for another year, but the reverberations of the past few days are ricocheting across Europe as Ukraine faces a defining moment.

The latest: French President Emmanuel Macron will host European leaders in Paris today for crisis talks as they scramble to respond to the fast-moving events of recent days. It comes as Trump’s top team head to Saudi Arabia for negotiations, with Axios reporting the meeting will take place Tuesday.

Ahead of today’s Paris summit and the Saudi talks, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he’s “ready and willing” to put British peace-keeping troops on the ground to secure “a lasting peace in Ukraine.” It comes after the Trump administration sent EU leaders a questionnaire asking them to spell out what security guarantees they plan to provide to Kyiv, including whether they will send troops.

We’ll step up — as long as you don’t step down: “While European nations must step up in this moment — and we will — U.S. support will remain critical and a U.S. security guarantee is essential for a lasting peace, because only the U.S. can deter Putin from attacking again,” Starmer wrote in his opinion piece in the Telegraph newspaper. “I will be meeting President Trump in the coming days and working with him and all our G7 partners to help secure the strong deal we need.”

Moving up in the world: In another unforeseen plot twist that captures the head-spinning state of current international relations, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has emerged as a key figure in negotiations over the Ukraine war. Best known for his short-lived spell on the diplomatic naughty step over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, MBS spoke to Emmanuel Macron last night, with the French president stressing the role Europe could play in the process.

‘NOTHING ABOUT UKRAINE, WITHOUT UKRAINE’

CAUGHT UNAWARE: Ukrainian officials here in Munich have been reacting with a mixture of shock and confusion to the news, first reported by POLITICO, of the U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia, Robbie Gramer and Paul McLeary report. It has rendered meaningless the mantra that has been trotted out by various European officials: “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.”

In the dark: One Ukrainian official at Munich expressed exasperation at the news, saying: “I don’t know where this came from, or what they expect to be the outcome of these talks where we are not invited.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself suggested Saturday on the sidelines of the conference that he was caught unaware. “I saw that someone said that there would be a meeting in Saudi Arabia. I do not know what it is.”

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sought to downplay concerns, saying in an interview with CBS News that Ukraine and Europe would be part of any “real negotiations” to end the war, before adding that “we’re just not there yet.”

Separately, then together: Meanwhile, NBC News reported that two U.S. officials had confirmed that Ukraine was not invited to this week’s Saudi talks but said the intention is for the Americans to hold a bilateral meeting with Russia, then a bilateral meeting with Ukraine, and then talks with all three together.

Berlin balks: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz last took aim at the Trump administration’s unilateral moves, saying European countries would not be providing security guarantees “that we have not developed and accepted ourselves.” Speaking last night during a televised debate ahead of Germany’s Feb. 23 election, Scholz said: “Ukraine must be a democratic, sovereign nation over whose heads no decisions are made.”

Second-tier diplomacy: As POLITICO reported last week, Trump envoy Keith Kellogg will be in Brussels today. He’s slated to meet European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen Tuesday morning. But Kellogg looks increasingly outside the Trump inner circle when it comes to Ukraine policy. “Everyone who met with Kellogg here [says it] looks like he’s collecting information and not giving it,” said Oleksiy Goncharenko, a Ukrainian lawmaker. “People are very confused. Nothing is clear where we’re moving.”

Tough love: As Europe enters full panic mode about its role as an international player, Finnish President Alexander Stubb had a blunt message: Calm down and toughen up. “I think there’s been a lot of diplomatic cacophony this weekend,” he told our own Antoaneta Roussi at POLITICO Pub. “As a Finn, I just say: slow down, calm down, take an ice bath, go the sauna, reflect on the situation and find a solution.”

More tough love: “Hopefully the Europeans will recognize that their free ride on the coattails of America has come to an end,” Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas) told POLITICO. “They’ve had it pretty good, and those days are over.”

WHO WILL LEAD NATO? With the U.S. making it clear that Europe needs to look after its own defense, a key question swirling around the Munich Security Conference has been: who will be the continent’s security provider if the U.S. military scales down its presence, or simply packs up and leaves? Our U.S. defense writers Jack Detsch, Joe Gould and Paul McLeary have a must-read piece on that. 

REALITY ON THE GROUND: Russia gained about 600 square kilometers of ground in Ukraine in December, doubling its monthly rate of advance, a NATO official said Sunday, Jack reports. But the rate of advance slowed to about 300 square kilometers last month, as casualties mounted — a trend that is emerging just as Russia is poised for peace talks.

THE OTHER WAR

MIDDLE-EAST SILENCE: With Ukraine dominating the news cycle, one of the world’s most intractable conflicts barely got a look-in here in Munich. The Israel-Gaza war was hardly featured in the main programming, though privately Egyptian and Qatari ministers were briefing counterparts across Europe. The G7 foreign ministers’ statement following their meeting here Saturday also referenced the situation in the Middle East in detail.

Marco Rubio made an unannounced trip to Israel Sunday, where the U.S. secretary of state fully endorsed Israel’s aims in the Gaza Strip. “President Trump and I are working in full cooperation and coordination between us. We have a common strategy,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a press conference.

But beyond the White House, and the Netanyahu world, Trump’s Gaza Riviera plan is continuing to get short thrift.

“Gaza needs to be rebuilt. However, you cannot look at Gaza divorced from the reality of Palestinian national aspirations, and that means the realization of a state,” U.N. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Sigrid Kaag told our own Jamie Dettmer here in Munich in an interview. 

“We need to go back to the heart of the matter, which is a safe and secure Israel and a viable independent Palestinian state. Anything else risks distracting both our attention and our conversations. We will not be doing justice to the people that have suffered so much I would say on both sides.”

HAMAS OFFER: The Sky News Arabic service reported overnight that Hamas has said it’s willing to hand the Gaza Strip over to the Palestinian Authority, as long as any Hamas government employees are “reabsorbed into the new administration” or retired with a “guarantee that their salaries will continue to be paid.” Per Sky, Hamas made the overture after pressure from Egypt. Israel is sending a delegation to Cairo today to hold talks on the hostage and cease-fire deal, the Jerusalem Post reports.

TAKEAWAYS

The POLITICO team spoke to attendees at the conference about some of the key takeaways of the past few days. 

— “There’s a lot of talk about this being a Munich 1938 moment, but for Ukraine the fear is that it’s a Yalta moment, where its future is determined by great powers without reference to it,” said Helen Clark, member of the Elders and former New Zealand prime minister. She was referring to the 1945 summit between the U.S., U.K. and Soviet Union that determined the fate of Central and Eastern Europe. 

— “Ukraine is still at war,” Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna said. Still, “Europe has proven to be capable of really unconventional solutions. There is now an understanding about burden-sharing … There is a real discussion about the European boots on the ground, which is something.”

— As Europe’s trade boss Maroš Šefčovič heads to Washington today for trade talks, David McAllister, a German member of the European Parliament, said the EU doesn’t want a trade war. “For us in the European Union, the United States of America is our most important trading partner, but we believe that tariffs are totally the wrong way forward,” he told POLITICO. “We can engage, try to find out how we can better balance our trade relations, but tariffs in the end is a lose-lose situation for both sides. If they are introduced we of course will retaliate, but nobody in Europe really wants that.”

— Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, whose country borders Russia, told my colleague Jacopo Barigazzi that there’s no possible peace deal that will prevent Russia from attacking Europe again. “Russia will remain a threat to Europe, whatever kind of peace deal,” he said. “Cease-fire is not the solution.”

ASIA-PACIFIC VIEW

GLOBAL ORDER: With the war in Ukraine and the state of the transatlantic alliance commanding attention at the Munich Security Conference, there wasn’t much space for discussion of flashpoints in other parts of the world. Nonetheless, this year saw the biggest-ever delegation from countries outside the NATO sphere descend on the MSC. 

Playbook interview: Global Playbook sat down with New Zealand’s Defense Minister Judith Collins to take stock of the past few days. Collins, the first minister from New Zealand to attend the MSC, was on her way to the Dürnbach war cemetery, one of many across the continent where New Zealanders who fought in the first and second world wars lie.

Democracy matters: Decades after the two world wars that defined the 20th century, Collins said that what’s happening in Ukraine matters. “Right from the start, we have given money to Ukraine,” she said, as well as helping train Ukrainian troops in Europe. “We care about democracy.”

Don’t poke the (Russian) bear: She added that what happens in Ukraine affects the Indo-Pacific. “From a self-interest point of view, we are very aware that Russia is a Pacific nation as well. Vostok is not on the Atlantic,” she said, referring to the city in eastern Russia. “We have China as a major and growing power in the Pacific and we have the U.S. on the other side of the Pacific. What happens in Ukraine actually matters in the Pacific.”

Speaking of China: Wellington has been left reeling from the Cook Islands’ decision to sign a partnership agreement with Beijing. The small Pacific archipelago has a free association agreement with NZ that grants Cook Islanders Kiwi passports. But the deal with China has sparked alarm about Chinese influence in the strategically important region, and its access to cobalt and other valuable minerals.

Show and tell: Collins called on Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown to release the text he signed with China. “I think his own people are asking,” she said. She said Beijing’s changing role in the region is a cause for concern, pointing to last year’s launch of a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile with the ability to reach New Zealand as a wake-up call. 

Changing times: “This is a real issue we need to be aware of,” Collins said. New Zealand tankers have passed through the contested Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea. Meanwhile, China is still New Zealand’s No. 1 trading partner.

Eyes everywhere: Though New Zealand has received pushback over skimping on its defense budget, its membership of the Five Eyes gives it a national security perspective that other small countries don’t have. Is that alliance still relevant in light of geopolitical changes and the new U.S. administration? “The Five Eyes is incredibly relevant for us, and for the Canadians, the U.S., Australia and the U.K.,” she said.

AROUND TOWN

SPOTTED: Chair of the NATO Military Committee Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, grabbing some lunch at the POLITICO Pub.

PARALLEL WORLD: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán promoting his appearance at the “Tucker Carlson” summit in Dubai.

FINAL WRAP: Our POLITICO Pro defense team will be online for a debrief on the key takeaways from the Munich Security Conference at 1 p.m. Munich time today. Join here. 

THANKS TO: Robbie Gramer, Jacopo Barigazzi, Jamie Dettmer, Paul McLeary, Dave Brown and Jan Cienski. 

Global Playbook couldn’t happen without Global Playbook editor Zoya Sheftalovich and producer Dean Southwell.

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