European leaders brace for their ‘5-minutes-to-midnight’ nightmare summit

PARIS ― The European Union is used to crises. This could be the one to beat them all.

As the bloc’s 27 leaders gather in Brussels on Thursday, they know the entire post-1945 security architecture ― one that depends on being buttressed by the United States ― could crumble any day.

Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, leaders have talked a lot about sovereignty and defense. Officials from European governments told POLITICO that they acknowledge that the moment has come to translate words into action, yet some already fear it could go horribly wrong.

While French President Emmanuel Macron has talked of the need for “an incredible awakening” and German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz described Europe as being “five minutes to midnight,” the worry from those close to the discussion is that events are happening more quickly than they can cope with.

“The nightmare scenario is that the U.S. announces a deal soon that accepts most of Russia’s demands and then tells Ukraine and Europe to take it or leave it,” said Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director general at the Royal United Services Institute in London.

And they’re not only scared of the United States. They’re also wary of some of their own. While Thursday’s hastily arranged summit, just days after less formal gatherings in Paris and London, signals an intention to come up with solutions, diplomats are already bracing for a pro-Russia group of leaders led by Hungary’s Viktor Orbán derailing the whole thing.

The number of topics under discussion and the ominous lack of unity means this is a summit that has the potential to shoot off in multiple different directions. Leaders will contemplate how they can rapidly redirect resources to bolster national armies, and at the same time they’ll try to demonstrate support for Ukraine, by reasserting its path to EU membership for example. The will also try to underscore their revulsion of Vladimir Putin’s regime, including perhaps a commitment to another round of sanctions.

So in short: It won’t be easy. 

Waiting until Trump is dead

“Europe faces a clear and present danger on a scale that none of us has seen in our adult lifetime,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote to EU leaders on Tuesday. “The future of a free and sovereign Ukraine ― of a safe and prosperous Europe ― is on the line.”

More than three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and barely six weeks since Trump became president, Thursday’s summit will bookend a week of history-defining moments on the other side of the Atlantic. 

While Macron and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer injected a few positive vibes after trying to ingratiate themselves with Trump last week, it’s gone massively downhill since. A disastrous meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office on Friday was followed on Tuesday by Trump’s decision to halt military aid to his war-ravaged country.

Military financing has not traditionally been an EU issue, but leaders will discuss ways things can be done at a central level.

“Defense spending is becoming a fixed cost,” a European diplomat said. “We have switched off the sun and now we need to pay everyday for the heating … Every day you need to pay for ammunition, at least for several years, until Trump is dead.”

One of the first issues leaders will consider is a plan announced on Tuesday by von der Leyen to unlock up to €800 billion of additional defense spending over the coming years.

Most concretely, von der Leyen’s plan includes an idea for the EU to borrow €150 billion that would be lent to EU governments to fund pan-European equipment in areas such as air and missile defense, artillery systems, missiles, ammunition, drones and other needs.

The commission is proposing to loosen EU spending rules to allow governments to boost their military. According to von der Leyen, allowing countries to increase defense spending equivalent to 1.5 percent of gross domestic product over four years would translate into about €650 billion across the bloc. 

While planned for sometime, her press announcement on Tuesday was designed as a reaction to the U.S. decision to pull the plug on aid to Ukraine, two EU officials said. The European Investment Bank has also announced that it is proposing to change its rules to make it easier to finance defense projects.

EU diplomats and officials are still poring over the details of the proposals, but overall it has been described as a first step in the right direction.

“Von der Leyen is trying to take the bull by the horns,” said a French minister, who, like others quoted here, was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “But will the technocratic EU structure follow?”

Leaders are also expected to discuss how to use Russian assets that have been frozen since the start of the Ukraine war. While the interest generated by the €200 billion worth of assets is already being used to help fund aid, countries including France are warming to the more controversial idea of seizing the the assets themselves even though opponents of the plan say it will run up against legal obstacles and may cause financial instability.

Hungary’s refusal

There is already a battle brewing over sending more military support to Ukraine. Officials were expecting the inclusion in the summit’s statement a plan announced last month by EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas to ship Ukraine at least 1.5 million rounds of artillery ammunition this year, as well as other equipment like air defense systems, missiles and drones. 

While the final statement won’t appear until the end of the summit, the latest draft circulating on Tuesday evening seen by POLITICO calls on ministers to find a way to ensure the arms shipments move forward. Officials said Hungary was refusing to agree to it.

The draft text stresses that the EU “will continue to provide Ukraine with regular and predictable financial support.”

In 2025, it will provide Ukraine with €30.6 billion, with disbursements from an EU mechanism to support Kyiv, the Ukraine Facility, expected to reach €12.5 billion and disbursements of about €18 billion from G7 loans under the so-called “Era initiative.” And future money will likely come from the Rearm Europe plan ― the von der Leyen initiative announced on Tuesday.

As Europe leaders’ meet, Ukrainian officials are putting a brave face reacting to the U.S. announcement of pulling the plug on aid.

It’s “very painful, but not fatal,” a senior Ukrainian official told POLITICO. “It will cost Ukraine unnecessary deaths and lost territories, but will not lead to defeat.”

Gregorio Sorgi contributed to this article from Brussels.