The EU is doing exactly what Trump wants. He still doesn’t care.

BRUSSELS — In the end, it was the Belgians who put it best. “It’s usually the case that if you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu,” said Bart De Wever, the Belgian prime minister. 

When it comes to ending the Russia-Ukraine war, Donald Trump has already started carving up Ukraine for dinner with Vladimir Putin, and there’s no sign he won’t go on to eat the European Union for dessert. 

On Thursday, the leaders of the EU took their first steps toward trying to disrupt the strongman's banquet before it's too late. 

All 27 EU leaders agreed to do exactly what Trump has been demanding for years: Radically increase their defenses with investment — potentially totaling €800 billion — that might just mean they can take care of themselves without “freeloading” (or relying) on American help. 

With one predictable exception in Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, they even pledged to dig deeper into their pockets and urgently send Kyiv more weapons and cash, as the U.S. cuts military supplies and stops sharing intelligence with Ukraine. 

But in the White House, Trump trashed NATO's central promise of mutual protection for its members anyway. “If they don’t pay, I’m not going to defend them,” he said.

In the next two weeks, officials in Brussels will frantically work up the details of their plan. If it goes ahead, it will allow EU governments to flex their spending rules to plunge funds into all kinds of military capabilities — from missiles and ammunition to drones, electronic warfare and air defenses. The leaders (apart from Orbán) also demanded the European Commission urgently bring forward the promised money for Ukraine's immediate war needs. 

Another summit will be held on March 20-21 when these same issues will be discussed again, with the aim of agreeing to more concrete actions.

Preventing World War 3

By the EU’s standards, this is quick, officials insist. At an informal summit a month ago, they were talking about moving in the direction of a plan to boost their defenses by June. 

The EU is undergoing a transformation, from a peace project that grew out of the rubble of the Second World War into a defensive alliance tooling up to prevent a third. 

But the reality is that for all the EU’s efforts — and the steps taken in recent days are certainly not meaningless — the real conversations about Ukraine and the future of European security are taking place elsewhere. 

In almost pleading tones, the leaders set out their “principles” for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia in the summit’s final communique. They included the now well-worn lines that “there can be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine” and, rather forlornly, that “there can be no negotiations that affect European security without Europe’s involvement.” 

For the avoidance of doubt, they added: “Ukraine’s, Europe’s, transatlantic and global security are intertwined.” Try telling that to Trump. 

To be fair to the EU, they already did. 

Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, traveled to Washington last week to make her case. But Trump’s new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, refused to make time to meet her, in what was seen as a blunt (and far from isolated) snub. 

Trump himself has been clear about his disdain for the EU and has so far not even bothered to hold a detailed discussion with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen since returning to office in January. 

In more heartening news, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the EU leaders over lunch that his team had resumed talks with Trump's officials.

Later, more signs emerged of a thaw in relations between Trump and Ukraine after last week's Oval Office onslaught: Zelenskyy said he would be traveling to Saudi Arabia for discussions on a peace plan with the U.S.

Trump himself said he would be heading to Saudi, observing that he believed Ukraine now wants a deal, though he did not confirm that he would be aiming to get an agreement over the line next week.

One thing seems clear enough: There is virtually no chance that the EU will be invited.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron look set to continue to take the lead on sending troops into Ukraine to keep the peace, despite a vague reference in the EU summit conclusions to exploring whether the the bloc's defense structures can play a role. 

The willing 

Starmer will be among the non-EU allies who will get a briefing from von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa on the summit discussions in a video call on Friday morning. 

The prominent involvement of the U.K., which left the EU five years ago, is yet another sign that the formal structures that have served to organize Western priorities for decades are being overtaken by events.

Starmer’s officials claim around 20 countries are ready to join the European peacekeeping mission in some form. 

Kallas, the EU’s most senior diplomatic representative, recognized the new ad-hoc reality on Thursday when she said support for Ukraine would be “a coalition of the willing,” even around the formal summit table in Brussels (a point Hungary proved again). 

But as Kallas herself can testify after Rubio’s refusal to meet her, the biggest question is whether Trump is willing to do anything to help Europe at all.