Global Warming, History of Earth's Temperature

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TL;DR Summary
We are currently at the lowest temperature ever.
According to this study published in Science magazine, the Earth hasn't been this cold for the past 350-450 million years. The Global Mean Surface Temperature took a dive about 40mya from 27C to the current 11C.
1739421785796.jpeg

It seems like we are in the 'Golden Age' for warm-blooded animals.
The graph is in the attachment.

Original at: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adk3705


Cheers, (?:cry:)
Tom
 

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I don't know enough about climate science to know whether that study is any good or not. But I do know it doesn't matter... It's beside the point.

The earth will be fine with, say, 5 degrees Celcius increase in temperature. Life will be fine. Even many humans will survive 5 degrees of increase in temperature, no problem. However...

We are currently not well suited with our modern way of living for 5 degrees increase in temperature. That is: most people live at or around sea level, when the sea rises enough many people will be displaced causing mass migrations and thus lots of trouble. Also some places might be getting too hot to live (think Spain, Greece, Italy). Locations where we currently do agriculture may become too wet or too dry to do so, or at a lower yield. Causing huge disruptions in food supply leading possibly to lots of famine. And I'm sure there are more things that I don't think of right now.

So, in a century or two, maybe three, or whenever the temperature stabilizes again, there will still be plenty of life. I'm also sure that humans will find some way to continue to exist. But it is the road from here to there and the huge disruptions along it that I'm worried about...
 
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Arjan82 said:
The earth will be fine with, say, 5 degrees Celcius increase in temperature. Life will be fine. Even many humans will survive 5 degrees of increase in temperature, no problem. However...
This sounds like BS.

This contradicts you earlier statement:
Arjan82 said:
That is: most people live at or around sea level, when the sea rises enough many people will be displaced causing mass migrations and thus lots of trouble. Also some places might be getting too hot to live (think Spain, Greece, Italy). Locations where we currently do agriculture may become too wet or too dry to do so, or at a lower yield. Causing huge disruptions in food supply leading possibly to lots of famine. And I'm sure there are more things that I don't think of right now.
 
BillTre said:
This sounds like BS.

This contradicts you earlier statement:
I don't see the contradiction. "Even many humans will survive..." means many humans won't and sounds consistent with "lots of famine" to me.
 
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Arjan82 said:
I don't know enough about climate science to know whether that study is any good or not. But I do know it doesn't matter... It's beside the point.
A quick reminder that this thread is in the technical PF forums, and is subject to the technical PF rules (plus the additional Global Warming rules). Opinions without basis in the professional literature will not be allowed.
 
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russ_watters said:
I don't see the contradiction. "Even many humans will survive..." means many humans won't and sounds consistent with "lots of famine" to me.
Doesn't sound like life will be fine in many ways to me.
What is being described is several ecological collapses. Each can have a lot of cascading consequences some of which could be easily predicted and some not.
Its pretty trivializing and short sighted to say all that is OK, but yeah, OK.
 
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berkeman said:
A quick reminder that this thread is in the technical PF forums, and is subject to the technical PF rules (plus the additional Global Warming rules). Opinions without basis in the professional literature will not be allowed.
Do note, that the OP is provoking this discussion by having put 'global warming' in the title.
That processes with timescales of millions of years bear little relevance to changes counted in decades is hardly an opinion that needs substantiation in literature.
Had the OP titled the thread along the lines of 'improved assessment of Earth's past temperature', or pretty much just the title without the non sequitur of GW in it, it wouldn't look like a rehash of an old chestnut from a deniers playbook, that calls for debunking.
(Those are the optics, I'm agnostic of the intent)
 
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BillTre said:
This sounds like BS.
Do you think the earth will be sterile after global warming? In that sense I mean it will be fine. 'just another extinction event'.

But the rest of my post should convey that it will not be fine...
 
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This is where I don't follow scientists (not science).

Science says the Earth is hotter than a century ago, and humans have roamed the Earth when it was much hotter than today (OP's study) — end of scientific facts.

Then you have these speculative words being thrown around:
Arjan82 said:
some places might be getting [...]
Arjan82 said:
Locations where we currently do agriculture may become [...]
BillTre said:
What is being described is several ecological collapses. Each can have [...]
To all of this science says "We can't predict the effect of this." There are no Earth models or simulations with little humans going on with their daily lives we can study. Too many variables leading to too many potential outputs. Nothing in history too, this is totally new.

But let's be cautious and imagine the worst. (Although, who says we have to? But let's ignore this philosophical question for now.) Let's try solutions that could reverse the greenhouse gas emissions, which science says is the source of this global warming that we should fear. Again, science cannot offer guarantees for these solutions as it is still too difficult to model the Earth. But let's try them and see what we get.

We've been putting all sorts of measures to reduce emissions of CO2 since at least the 80's. Let's take some scientific measurements and see the impact of our actions:

800px-Mauna_Loa_CO2_monthly_mean_concentration.svg.png

This curve is known as the Keeling curve, and is an essential piece of evidence of the man-made increases in greenhouse gases that are believed to be the cause of global warming. (source)

g_-_climate_change_-_global_warming_-_EPA_NOAA.svg.png

I don't see the slightest decrease. It doesn't even stabilize. Wouldn't that mean that our efforts have no impact on the increase in CO2? Or is it just that 20-40 years are not enough to see an effect yet? (That may be true for Global Warming but it shouldn't for CO2 emissions.)

I'm not sure where this next graph comes from (source), but at least it shows a drastic decline after 2019:

historic-co2-drops-pattern.png

The cause? People slow down living to almost a stop due to the COVID pandemic. But the scientists agree that we should go back to the 1990's level to be OK. And by staying at home, doing almost nothing, we only get that little dip? Is there really a point to converting all combustion engines to electric motors, when NOT using our combustion engines has so little effect? Or wasn't the pandemic period long enough to see the full effect?

Even knowing that science agrees that the major cause of Global Warming is the rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 caused by human activities, scientifically speaking, are we achieving something for CO2 emissions and Global Warming? Is the stuff we're doing right now working? Can we really do something about it or is it now bigger than us and we just have to go through it, good or bad?

In other words, are the [speculative] solutions coming from scientists better than anyone else's opinion?
 
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jack action said:
We've been putting all sorts of measures to reduce emissions of CO2 since at least the 80's. Let's take some scientific measurements and see the impact of our actions:
I don't see the slightest decrease. It doesn't even stabilize. Wouldn't that mean that our efforts have no impact on the increase in CO2? Or is it just that 20-40 years are not enough to see an effect yet? (That may be true for Global Warming but it shouldn't for CO2 emissions.)
I think much of this is rhetorical, but I'll answer anyway: Everything done to date has had little to no impact on CO2 emissions and therefore no impact on climate change mitigation. You're right, global emissions rates haven't really even started slowing down the increases, much less dropping (caveat: unless something meaningful happened in the past 3 years that isn't in data I'm seeing yet).

But why? Well, for all the talk about action (lots and lots of talk), and a few real actions by developed nations, carbon emissions reduction is mostly in the hands of developing nations like China and India. In most developed nations carbon emission intensity (per capita or per unit of GDP) peaked many decades ago and absolute carbon emissions peaked several decades ago. But these decreases are relatively small even for most of the developed countries themselves, and are swamped by the far larger increases by developing nations. Here's a selection of some countries and the rest of the world:

carbon_emissions_country.png

jack action said:
The cause? People slow down living to almost a stop due to the COVID pandemic. But the scientists agree that we should go back to the 1990's level to be OK. And by staying at home, doing almost nothing, we only get that little dip? Is there really a point to converting all combustion engines to electric motors, when NOT using our combustion engines has so little effect? Or wasn't the pandemic period long enough to see the full effect?
The Pandemic period wasn't very long. Q2 had a 28% drop in GDP for the US, but it recovered most of that in the 3rd quarter; for the year it was only a 2.2% drop. And even then, the impacts weren't uniform. Driving mileage of cars dropped substantially, but did trucks/trains/ships? I doubt they changed much and some may have increased due to the boom in shipping things to peoples' houses.

Is it worth it to keep trying? It may be a matter of opinion how much we (globally) should, but one thing is not: if we want China and India to try, we have to try.
 
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  • #11
jack action said:
Wouldn't that mean that our efforts have no impact on the increase in CO2?


That is a specious conclusion. It only means what the data says: CO2 emissions have not been much diminished. Perhaps things would be far different had no effort been made. Perhaps not.
There is only one test tube and we live in it. Demanding definitive proof before action is taken is not likely to yield a palatable result.
 
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  • #12
jack action said:
Is the stuff we're doing right now working?
You make it sound like somebody is following the recommendations of the IPCC. What was it, global net zero by 2050*? You're seeing that implemented?
The fossil fuels keep getting dug up at ever increasing rate, and emissions keep growing, so what would you expect? It's not that what we - the global we - are doing isn't working. It's that we're not actually doing much. The 'efforts' are mostly talk, vague promises, and creative bookkeeping. It's publicising your new solar plant with one hand, and investing in fracking with the other. It's western economies boasting of reducing emissions (by a bit, but let's not talk about that) - achieved through exporting their industrial capacity to Asia. It's companies loudly proclaiming commitment to net zero, and then weaseling out of it when a new business opportunity arises (cough*Google*cough).
At best, you can say that it could have been worse - the curves you posted could have been steeper (the climate modelling predictions for various emission scenarios has always been included in the IPCC reports, so it's not like it's divination). Well done us.

*I don't actually remember, so don't hold me on that
 
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  • #13
Arjan82 said:
Do you think the earth will be sterile after global warming? In that sense I mean it will be fine. 'just another extinction event'.
The world was not sterilized by the Chicxulub impact that ended the reign of the Dinosaurs either, so I guess that was fine, as determined by all the people around at that time. I guess that means that the earth would have to fall into the sun for some climatic perturbation to be not good.

The world was not sterilized by the Chicxulub impact that ended the reign of the Dinosaurs either, so I guess that was fine, as determined by all the people around at that time.

Poor choice of words at best.
Good AI imitation.

Arjan82 said:
But the rest of my post should convey that it will not be fine...
Yeah, well there is that.
But it also conveys how you think its OK for millions to die and several great ecological disruptions to occur. That's just fine!!!
 
  • #14
BillTre said:
Yeah, well there is that.
But it also conveys how you think its OK for millions to die and several great ecological disruptions to occur. That's just fine!!!

Alright... note to self: sarcasm really Really doesn't work in written language... I mean, the whole point you are making is exactly the same as I was trying to make using my silly idea of humor. I absolutely do not think it is OK at all!

Poor choice of words indeed I guess. 😔
 
  • #15
Arjan82 said:
Alright... note to self: sarcasm really Really doesn't work in written language... I mean, the whole point you are making is exactly the same as I was trying to make using my silly idea of humor. I absolutely do not think it is OK at all!

Poor choice of words indeed I guess. 😔
Actually, I am a generally sarcastic person, so I feel for you.
There are emoji sarcasm indicators (like maybe :cool: or
:rolleyes:) one could use, not that I am good with them.

However, there were those who took your interpretation seriously, so don't get sarcastic with GW.
I support the the ecosystem.
 
  • #16
Here’s a fun plot on energy usage.

IMG_0064.jpeg

The author is arguing against the concept of successful energy transition.

from “More and More and More” by Fressoz
 
  • #17
Have you read this book? When I look on line it says "available August 2025."
 
  • #18
If you think heat is bad, wait until this graph bottoms out.
 
  • #19
gmax137 said:
Have you read this book? When I look on line it says "available August 2025."
I have started the British edition.
 
  • #21
pinball1970 said:
The growing CO2 emissions data in a previous post proves that, as a species, we haven't even started doing anything meaningful yet. And, it's seems likely that we will hit +1.5C this year. As I understand it, that was supposed to be the limit that we must not reach. We've reached it already, have we not?

If we had been serious about tackling climate change, then we would have changed our lives radically over the past 40 years - and fundamentally looked for contentment in life from things other than gross over consumption. This is the fundamental problem. I can ask myself: what have I personally been required to sacrifice in order to reduce my carbon footprint? The answer is precisely nothing. Not one single thing. I'm free to produce as much CO2 as my modest wealth will allow.

The ony thing you can say is that perhaps it could have been worse. We haven't actually made the situation as bad as possible. You could give us some credit for that, perhaps.
 
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  • #22
PeroK said:
The growing CO2 emissions data in a previous post proves that, as a species, we haven't even started doing anything meaningful yet.
Yeah, but we're about to begin to start to get ready to commence...
 
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  • #23
PeroK said:
As I understand it, that was supposed to be the limit that we must not reach. We've reached it already, have we not?
Yes, that's my understanding.
 
  • #24
gmax137 said:
Yeah, but we're about to begin to start to get ready to commence..
I believe that we have already begun to to start to get ready to commence.......hence the palpable backlash. No worries.
 
  • #25
Tom.G said:
According to this study published in Science magazine, the Earth hasn't been this cold for the past 350-450 million years. The Global Mean Surface Temperature took a dive about 40mya from 27C to the current 11C.
That is not quite correct. The current Global Mean Surface Temperature is 15 °C, according to NASA, and according to many other sources. The granularity of that study means the last 11700 years (when the last glaciation ended and the Holocene began) barely registers in the terms of that study. The study does not see the difference between the last 11700 years and the glaciation that immediately proceeded it in the Pleistocene. The temperature change over the last 50 years, while smaller in scale than the temperature change since the last glaciation ended -- that isn't even a blip on the timescale of the cited study.

It appears the cited paper switched granularity, possibly multiple times. It definitely does not have good insight into the climate variations during the Karoo ice age, so it is hard to say that the current ice age is colder than the Karoo. That said, that might well be the case. During the Karoo there were no land masses near the North Pole. The Karoo was mostly a Southern Hemisphere event. The current icehouse started around 33 million years ago (mya) when Antarctica started icing over, started to get seriously cold about 10 mya when Antarctica completely iced over, then got colder yet when the Northern Hemisphere joined in on the fun about 2.5 mya, then got colder yet about 1 mya when the glaciation cycle changed from 41 thousand years to the current 100 thousand years.

One last item: It is in general not a good idea to place undue credence on a single very recent peer-reviewed report, even one printed in a journal as prestigious as Science. This paper does after all conflict with other reconstructions. It's best to wait until the scientific dust settles, and this typically takes well over a year.
 
  • #26
@D H 's comment shows why I don't like how we present a lot of stuff as "proven by science" when not all "sciences" are equal.

There is what I could call "pure science" and "statistical science".

With pure science, you define initial conditions and a set of mathematical rules, which should predict a result. If you do many experiments with precise measurements, you should end up with a 99.9999% success rate (or something in that order) to call it "scientifically proven". The 0.0001% can be assumed to be within the measuring error.

In statistical science, we usually conduct many experiments, find a pattern, and evaluate the success rate using statistics. We are usually satisfied with success rates way below 100%, sometimes in the 70-80% range, if not lower. The experiences may have been conducted with the "scientific method" but the results cannot be considered "scientifically proven". We may be on the right path to understanding but we are clearly missing something.

There is a difference between what is proven by basic physics and, say, a clinical trial. There are often a lot of holes in the latter. For example, people who smoke have a lower life expectancy, but that does not mean all smokers die young. (And the opposite goes for non-smokers.) You don't need to do an extensive study to see that, anyone can.

And this is how we end up with people throwing all science out the door, thinking "Science is science" and if we cannot trust one, we cannot trust all of them. "My uncle smoked all his life and died at 92 from a fall in the stairway, then the Earth must be flat!"

I hate when medical and climate studies are put at the same level as other purely mathematical studies with a higher success rate. Especially when governments make decisions for everyone based on them. It's a rebellion waiting to happen.
 
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  • #27
Modern large scale science involves not only interactions between doing the science and government regulators, but also the politicians getting elected and the political bases they employ (which are varied and not always emphasizing accuracy) in their elections. When the government gets involved, things can be a lot more complicated.
Politicians are often motivated by their contributors.
 
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  • #28
jack action said:
I hate when medical and climate studies are put at the same level as other purely mathematical studies with a higher success rate. Especially when governments make decisions for everyone based on them. It's a rebellion waiting to happen.
I think you do a disservice to the scientific method by drawing such a sharp dichotomy. In principle the the scientific method is the same. We are simply better at some branches than others. All science involvers measurement and statistical inference, but for the flight of a projectile the systems are simple for our brains to apprehend. The fact that we expect other systems to be consistently trivial should not serve as an indictment of the method. One needs to understand the limitations. Don't shoot the messenger . Or toss out baby with the bathwater....(insert hackneyed phrase here)
 
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  • #29
jack action said:
@D H 's comment shows why I don't like how we present a lot of stuff as "proven by science" when not all "sciences" are equal.
Nothing is proven by science, and that includes physics. The best that science can do is equivalent to the legal concept of "proven beyond a reasonable doubt." There is always a black swan problem in all of the sciences, and that includes physics. There are biases as well.

jack action said:
There is what I could call "pure science" and "statistical science".
That you agreed with me for all of the wrong reasons is a bit alarming to me. Perhaps my writing needs improvement. All of the sciences, and that most certainly includes physics, rely heavily on statistics. There is no such thing as your imaginary "pure science."
 
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  • #30
From the OP
We are currently at the lowest temperature ever.

Was the opening (clearly incorrect) statement intended to be provocative? It provoked me to respond I suppose.

I only occasionally post here (long enough that my profile appears to have disappeared) but climate change is of high significance - more than 3 decades of consistent top level science based advice has been saying we have a global problem of great import and we are currently experiencing global temperatures in line with predictions within that advice - ie post industrialisation record highs accompanying record high CO2 levels. Yet somehow taking the IPCC advice at face value, like it is true is unreasonable.

Emphatically NOT the lowest temperatures ever given the Holocene followed a glacial maxima. Rather, the past 10,000 years or so was both warmer than most of the period homo sapiens have been around and unusually - exceptionally - stable as well, staying within a couple of degrees, after more than 100,000 years of being both colder and with much wider temperature variability. There are good grounds to think that Holocene climate stability was important to the success of agriculture and therefore civilisation; it does appear that even the relatively small variations experienced within the holocence could take down civilisations.

Perhaps the real significance of this long paleo climate view to "global warming" aka anthropogenic climate ( that shows both wide variations in global temperatures and much warmer periods in the deep past), is that climate is highly susceptible to wide ranging change and there is a lot of potential to get a lot hotter. That is, it is a legitimate cause of serious concern rather than cause to think that current climate change is not that significant. I do tend to view how it will affect people alive now, for whom there are duties of care, within their lifetimes - a hundred years out - as a useful perspective. And see how climate has changed relative to that Holocene stability as more important than how warm it is relative to any deep past climate when homo sapiens wasn't around.

I note that the linked article puts a sensitivity to CO2 (for doubling concentrations) at ~8C - ie much higher than most current estimates -

"There is a strong correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and GMST, identifying CO2 as the dominant control on variations in Phanerozoic global climate and suggesting an apparent Earth system sensitivity of ~8°C."


As for how well the problem has (hasn't) been addressed, that is clearly not down to climate scientists or inconsistent climate science. Commerce and industry mostly opposed (and largely still opposes) strong climate policies and politicians and mainstream political parties have done their best to do the least possible, to defer and delay, for the sake of economies and businesses that have become highly dependent on fossil fuels. My own view is that, like elected representatives being informed that (say) a major bridge or dam is unsafe, there is a duty of care to respond adequately and they are letting us down by dismissing and ignoring the expert advice.

Yes, I can change my behavior and to some extent have, but I see the solutions as economy wide change to how energy is made, so that the energy offered to end consumers is low emissions, not leave it up to end consumers to care enough. We don't leave it up to people to do the right thing and not steal - we have laws and we try and enforce them, because even knowing better people do the wrong thing. When all our primary energy is low emissions then even extravagant wastefulness by people who don't care can be low emissions. Until our primary energy is low emissions I can "go stone age" and cease being a functional member of society, and rather than be held in high regard for my principles, will be mocked for it. The solution isn't going without stuff, it is a transition to zero emissions energy abundance.

But Wind and Solar has gotten a lot cheaper, crossing cost thresholds that count within the past decade, to become the most built new electricity options globally. In the US I believe more than 90% of new build electricity for 2024 was renewables. Here in Australia around 40% of electricity is (already) coming from RE and virtually no new fossil fuel plants are being built, irrespective of political support for it. Mostly though, Australia is mining coal and gas and selling it without regard to global climate consequences. Having come off such a low start - and with so much pessimism about it - that growth of RE is remarkable.

I don't think we can look at rates of installed capacity compared to fossil fuels and get a full appreciation of how rapidly things are changing; look to investments in solar and battery factories and growth of production capacity. We are heading towards 1 TW per year of solar panel production - at a 20% capacity factor, like 200 1GW nuclear plants. The effects of that may not be obvious yet, but it will be - and I am not convinced government decree can turn that tide back; these technologies have never been cheaper and market forces, not climate concerns are why Solar PV growth rates exceed fossil fuel electricity growth rates.
But climate concerns did have a role in clean funding clean energy R&D that made it possible, if only as empty gesture politics (and maybe giving of enough rope); Environmentalists weren't so much especially prescient as scientists, engineers and entrepreneurs saw real potential and have done a lot of hard work and made them work.
 
  • #31
Ken Fabian said:
Was the opening (clearly incorrect) statement intended to be provocative? It provoked me to respond I suppose.
Not intentionaly incorrect; provocative, yes. I should have included the graph as a visual in the OP. I have now done so - and also entered it here for ease of reference.

1739422018686.jpeg

Please note the colored bar across the top edge indicating "Climate state" and the time span is 490 Million years

I agree with the rest of your post in that climate warming is real and is a largely ignored problem.

Here is a greatly enlarged view of the lower right side where the recent warming can be seen. The plot area covers from 13°C down° to 7°C.

At this scale, the 11,700 year long Holocene is about the width if the right-side border of the graph, less than the width of the plot line.
. . . . . . . . 13°C
1739424431044.png


Cheers,
Tom
 
  • #32
jack action said:
I hate when medical and climate studies are put at the same level as other purely mathematical studies

And don't you hate when people who are not knowledgable in both medical and climate studies act like they are, based on one misunderstood post they read? What I had noticed throughout the years on PF is that a lot of people here do not share the "physics standards" when it comes to more "social" sciences. If you don't know something, ask a question. Just because some things seem simpler, doesn't mean you can act like you know things when you don't.
 
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  • #33
weirdoguy said:
If you don't know something, ask a question.
But what if you don't trust the people who claim to be knowledgeable in a field especially when you cannot even evaluate whether they are or not?

Multiple people are experts on the Bible or the Coran. I'm not. Lots of people are following them more or less blindly. They say a lot of stuff I doubt about, or even completely disagree with. They would probably say: "If you don't know something, ask a question." And I'm sure they will always have an answer. Like all other experts in their fields. I still have no intention of going through these books to form my opinions. I hear those experts and I form my opinion based on the trust I give them, not on what they say. I'm not going to waste my time trying to win arguments with them either. Being a scientist doesn't exempt you from earning other people's trust.

Trust is earned. If people do not want to listen to you, it doesn't matter how knowledgeable you are (or you think you are). And if someone doesn't trust you, it is as much your responsibility as theirs to [re]establish the communication, probably even more. This is the biggest challenge for scientists right now.
 
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  • #34
jack action said:
Trust is earned.
Imagine you do some work, and arrive at a result that you then present to another person. That person says they don't trust you just saying so. Alright, fair enough. So then you show them all the data you had collected, you write down in meticulous detail all the methods and assumptions used, and justifications for those methods and assumptions. You introduce them to related work other people have done, and you present them with reviews of your work indicating that you haven't made any mistakes.
And then they tell you they don't understand any of that, so they still don't trust you.
Alright then, you provide a clear pathway to learning each step of the process, constructed so that it's accessible to almost anyone willing to commit their time, and allowing to check the veracity of your work to any depth they want to dig down to.
And they still say: No! YOU have to earn MY trust. I'm not doing any work.

How. How do these scientists are supposed to earn your trust, other than what they've been doing all along? Other than following the scientific method, committing to transparency, accessibility, and peer review? What more do you need?

I've seen you making these comments, professing distrust in science, for years now. You had years to pick up a textbook, attend an online or in-person course, or even just do the basic intellectual work of constructing a heuristic for general ontology to guide you, so that you don't lump beliefs and science in one basket. But you're stuck in your mindset, doing what increasingly looks to me like wallowing in ignorance.
 
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  • #35
Bandersnatch said:
How do these scientists are supposed to earn your trust

That one is simple - they should stop discovering things that will force people to change their lifestyles for worse.

These discussions are hard not because the topic is hard (which of course it is) but because people do not share the same standards with different branches of science. E.g. relativity vs. physics of climate. In the meantime, two weeks ago in Warsaw we had a spring in the middle of a winter.

I guess we're veering too much into off-topic, so I'm out :smile:
 
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  • #36
Bandersnatch said:
What more do you need?
Why is it so important to you that I believe what you believe? That's the question people need to be answered to trust you. It has nothing to do with your reasoning.

Why does a flat-earther think it is so important for me to believe the Earth is flat? He thinks it's flat, I think it's a globe. It really doesn't matter much in any of our daily lives. This is suspicious to me that some people go to so much extent to try to convince me of something so futile in my life. What are they trying to sell me? It is always about money, control, and power.

But then I turn around, and I see one of those globists doing the same thing, but the other way around. Why? Who cares? Why is it so important that everyone sees life exactly as THEY do? What are THEY trying to sell me? Based on experience, it should also be about money, control, and power. It's really not a good look on them either.

From a flat-earther's point of view, assuming they are right, it's clear that they think they are being lied to, such that a small group of malevolent people take control over all of us. They don't hide their true fear. The more globists try to convince them otherwise, the more their fears and doubts grow. Flat-earthers don't want anything from them and yet, they still want to "help", to be their "friend". Why is it so important to them?

From the point of view of globists, assuming they are right, they should only do their things, answer questions if any, and let people do their own things afterward. But their fear is that "people" - whoever might that be - will NOT believe them, despite the hard evidence. This is the equivalent of saying "people" - whoever might that be - are too stupid to understand, too foolish to even make it out alive in this world. Which is litterally the definition of a small group of people trying to take control over all of us. Except, in this scenario, globists think they are benevolent. They want to do good unto others ... for free? Yeaaah! that looks fishy. Flat-earthers are going back to doubting the benevolent part again.

I can assure you that - whatever they say - nobody is questioning science. They don't care. Explaining science is not the answer they are looking for. People are questioning scientists and their values. Because they know they are humans. They even had bad experiences with well-intentioned humans. Showing them how stupid or ignorant they are is not the way to go.

Personnally, I would be more convinced of scientists believing in climate change if I were seeing scientists going Amish and, when asked why, they would answer: "We believe we need to produce less CO2 and since we understand most of us won't do it, we do more than our part to compensate in the hope it will be enough." THAT is an answer from someone who truly believes the end is near. Scientists who continue doing whatever everyone has been doing for years and only sell some pitch about new technologies that will magically cure everything at no cost, or suggesting that democracy should be indirectly bypassed by forcing elected politicians to follow only whatever scientists say, is not very convincing.
 
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  • #37
Sounds like BS to me.
Your main question is "why?", yet you choose to ignore the obvious why that motivates many opposed to climate change. That is the the destruction of many important pillars of our ecological world.
I don't know if you can understand that or are too stupid to paraphrase your words.
Arguing "why" doesn't matter for flat earthers and but ignoring the "why" for science is not very convincing for those aware of the consequences. These are in no way hidden motivations.
 
  • #38
jack action said:
I can assure you that - whatever they say - nobody is questioning science. They don't care. Explaining science is not the answer they are looking for.
But the guy who wants to be President (or king or vice President) of flatworld is not really my target audience: It is the uninformed (and uniformed) folks who raise their hands in salute. It is they who will become the acolytes and purveyors of whatever mayhem results.
Let's call them the the "flatterers". Absent the flatterers, there would be no problem with the would-be President being anti-science and I would wish him well (from a distance). We do not have that luxury in most circumstances, so we frequently need to advertise scientific method: hopefully by rational discourse, but truthfully by whatever means are available to us.


.
 
  • #39
hutchphd said:
It is the uninformed (and uniformed) folks
Keep referring to them as such and see if you will get their respect and an attentive ear. Also, the statement applies to them as well: they don't care about science, they just want to be reassured.

BillTre said:
Your main question is "why?", yet you choose to ignore the obvious why that motivates many opposed to climate change. That is the the destruction of many important pillars of our ecological world.
Everybody wants to make the world a better place. We just have very different views on how to achieve that. Nobody will win by assuming they have the moral high ground.
BillTre said:
I don't know if you can understand that or are too stupid to paraphrase your words.
I'm just explaining to you to not call your opponent (which I'm not) ignorant and stupid and here we are.
BillTre said:
for those aware of the consequences.
Science can not make you aware of the consequences of climate change. I'll repeat what I said earlier:
jack action said:
To all of this science says "We can't predict the effect of this." There are no Earth models or simulations with little humans going on with their daily lives we can study. Too many variables leading to too many potential outputs. Nothing in history too, this is totally new.
You are aware of "potential" consequences. Ones that are very speculative at best. Always negative ones. We are very careful not to let a hint of hope pass through. Because the people who are not smart enough to understand what we understand might not choose to follow us blindly.

The funny thing is that this last paragraph applies no matter which side you're on.

All I hear is that you are afraid. A sentiment that was felt by many - if not all - over the entire human history. I see survivalists who are also afraid, investing tens of thousands of dollars in equipment, spending their evenings and weekends preparing for such apocalyptic events, and the vast majority of us don't even find them credible, not enough to follow them anyway. The true reason being: Prepare for what exactly? So many possible outcomes. So, why do you think an angry man yelling insults at others and patiently waiting for others to do something before he decides to join them will lead us anywhere?

BillTre said:
Sounds like BS to me.
Easy to say. So what is your explanation for people not agreeing with you concerning climate change? What do you think goes through their mind?
 
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  • #40
jack action said:
So what is your explanation for people not agreeing with you concerning climate change? What do you think goes through their mind?
I would hazard that at least some of those people have an insecurity that requires them to always be 'Right'. In my experience, those people often are ones that can/will not accept new ideas, be they either new subjects or further information not confirming their current beliefs.

Anyhow, that's my two-cents worth. I'll now retire to watching how this discussion ends up.

Have Fun!
Tom
 
  • #41
jack action said:
Also, the statement applies to them as well: they don't care about science, they just want to be reassured.
So we should tell them the earth is flat and that the Haitians in Springfield Ohio will eat their pets.? (I grew up in Springfield!) . Fatuous lies to reassure people. Potemkin villages of the mind. Good policy.
I too shall retire from this discussion having said all I can say.
 
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  • #42
jack action said:
Why is it so important to you that I believe what you believe? That's the question people need to be answered to trust you. It has nothing to do with your reasoning.
I don't want you, or anyone else, to believe what I believe. I want us all to inhabit the same reality, so that actionable decisions can be made when problems arise.
 
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  • #43
Bandersnatch said:
I want us all to inhabit the same reality, so that actionable decisions can be made when problems arise.
Why do we all have to agree to make the same decisions? The worst decision you can make is to put all your eggs in one basket.

Is there even such a thing as THE solution to a problem? From simple observation, nature doesn't work like this. Diversity rules.

My point is that it is impossible to [scientifically] predict the future of the complex world we live in. How will you pick the right decision for all? Can we even all agree on what outcomes we think will be best for us?

So you did not answer the question, you just went around it, playing with semantics. Let me ask it again with a different wording: Why is it important that I use the same solution as the one you chose? I know you think you are right. Every one of us thinks they are right too. It is ludicrous to think anyone would make consciously a "wrong" decision.

hutchphd said:
So we should tell them [...]
My point is that you don't have to tell them anything. What is NOT reassuring is that you feel the need to tell them something.

Just imagine how you feel when someone tries to convince you to invest in something that will make you rich. The question you should be asking yourself is: if this person can become rich with this investment, why is it important to them that I become rich myself by doing the same thing? This is how you usually spot a scam. Nobody goes out of their way to help others. And it is surely not help when they are pressuring or forcing them.

Just trying to convince someone of something is already worrisome for them, as it should be. The natural and most appropriate reaction to this is to not let them get into your head and disregard everything they say.

You need to get the trust before saying anything.
 
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  • #44
jack action said:
Why do we all have to agree to make the same decisions?
That is not even REMOTELY what he said. READ WHAT HE SAID.
 
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  • #45
@weirdoguy Why do my comments always make you sad? Are you sad because I think people who don't see things like I do are still good people who want to make the world a better place? Are you sad because I would like everyone to aim for a consensus where everyone is happy about it? And if there is none, let everyone do what they think is best?

Or am I not being clear about the message I'm trying to get across?
 
  • #46
Well, @jack action I'm not sad, personally, but I do find it offensive that you misrepresent what people say.
 
  • #47
jack action said:
t? And if there is none, let everyone do what they think is best?
By your logic, the sincere advocates of the holocaust (there were, and seemingly always are, many such) are not to be challenged.

Asinine.



/
 
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  • #48
phinds said:
Well, @jack action I'm not sad, personally, but I do find it offensive that you misrepresent what people say.
You do realize that offensive means to cause a crime, a sin, an affront, an injury, an insult. Stating it this way seems to also imply that it is done intentionally.

How can you discuss with someone, hoping to reach an agreement if you treat the other person this way? And I'm not even a conspiracy theorist in any way, shape, or form. We probably agree on so many things. I cannot even begin to imagine how someone stating he thinks climate change is nothing to worry about would feel. I certainly understand why he would shut down completely and stop listening to you, no matter what you say.

Why do you assume that I'm a bad person who wants to offend you (to what end?), rather than me and you having a miscommunication problem that we should solve together?

phinds said:
That is not even REMOTELY what he said. READ WHAT HE SAID.
I'm sorry, but I'm still reading it the same way, even when I put it into a translator in my mother tongue. He did not agree with you either, so I'm still not sure of what he meant or what you understood. Here's my take on it:

Bandersnatch said:
I want us all to inhabit the same reality,
"There is only one reality that exists, I see it one way, and everyone should see the same thing." i.e. "see what I see" or "believe what I believe". Why would @Bandersnatch want to inhabit a reality he doesn't believe exists?
Bandersnatch said:
when problems arise.
Once again, here I'm reading we are assuming a problem is common for everyone. Priorities should be the same for everyone because, you know, we are in the same reality.

But, if you are a childless 20-year-old who has cancer, reversing climate change for future generations should be the least of your problems. Similarly, if you believe climate change is caused by a God you somehow offended, your primary problem is not the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Bandersnatch said:
so that actionable decisions can be made
For climate change, we can do a lot of things:
  • Switch our power sources to different ones, hoping we won't just replace one problem with another;
  • Stop using power machines all together;
  • Get down on our knees and pray.
These are all actionable decisions for the same problem. There are no reasons why we should prefer one to another. There are no reasons for choosing only one for everyone and not letting everyone choose their own. People are smart, they'll see which one works better than the other and change if needed. Confronting them is the best way to make them panic and ensure they won't change their mind.

You might laugh at the last one but people used to dance to make it rain when in a drought and they survived. The rain did fall at one point. You might think that it is just a coincidence and rain would have fallen anyway, so they danced for nothing. But stating that would mean that we might still be wrong today, and there might be another "actionable decision" possible: do nothing and just hope for the best. (Which is basically what we are doing right now.)

You might think science is the answer to climate change but science is also the reason for climate change. So it is understandable that some might be skeptical about science.

So:
  • Reality is not the same for everyone;
  • The problems are not the same for everyone;
  • The solutions are not the same for everyone.
hutchphd said:
By your logic, the sincere advocates of the holocaust
Now we are in business. The Nazis have entered the room!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin's_law#Generalization said:
Godwin rejects the idea that whoever invokes Godwin's law has lost the argument, and suggests that, applied appropriately, the rule "should function less as a conversation ender and more as a conversation starter."

hutchphd said:
are not to be challenged.
Never said that. I said never to force someone to do something they don't want to do.
 
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  • #49
I see no reason to continue this silliness, because the Nazis have hijacked my country, and serious people are concerned.
 
  • #50
jack action said:
You do realize that offensive means to cause a crime, a sin, an affront, an injury, an insult. Stating it
Yes, that is exactly what I meant. An affront.
jack action said:
this way seems to also imply that it is done intentionally.
In this particular case, it seems so. Your interpretation of things is clearly at odds with the rest of us. You have conflated a desire that we all recognize the same facts with requiring that we all have the same interpretation of, or belief about, those facts. These are NOT the same thing despite your apparent belief that they are.
 
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