Tristan de Terves’ Post

French Legislative Elections: Ending the Policies of the Worst. In its latest editorial, Le Monde analyzes the results of the legislative elections on July 7, where the expected progress of the far-right National Rally (RN) was halted, despite their significant gains. The RN's strategy of "normalization" collapsed, exposing incompetent candidates and extremist ideologies. The "republican front" managed to limit the damage, but the RN remains an important force. Macron's dissolution of the Assembly weakened his majority, and the left-wing New Popular Front emerges as an alternative, though far from an absolute majority. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, representing La France insoumise (LFI), remains a strong voice, but the dynamic has changed, with socialists and other progressives gaining importance. This new assembly offers the opportunity to establish a more peaceful and resolute policy, addressing the real concerns of voters without yielding to the far right.

We've been negative on #France since the European elections (and the trade has done well) but it's now time to take profit. The reason? Tactical voting seems to ensure neither the broad left nor the far-right can achieve a majority--meaning their fantastical fiscal promises will remain in the realm of fiction. Great graphic from #LeMonde illustrating the point in the link.

Hon. Jean Michel Nintcheu has been accused of fomenting trouble within the opposition in Cameroon by insisting that Kamto must be the leader of a coalition. Many argue that such a leader must be elected by the different opposition leaders and not imposed https://ow.ly/AUV950QylEP #Politics #Cameroon #Elections #DemocraticProcess #CoalitionBuilding #PoliticalCoalition

As the constitutional heir to President Biya, the president of the senate is one of the most important positions in Cameroon. The reelection of Senator Niat, who is bedridden with illness and age, shows the total disregard that the senators have for the well-being and future of the country - https://ow.ly/vHVt50R0ji9 #CameroonPolitics #SenateElections #PoliticalLeadership #LeadershipCrisis #PoliticalFuture #GovernmentAccountability

ELECTIONS

Georgia's future has been uncertain since Georgian Dream's autocratic turn. Civil society, opposition parties, and independent media are facing an increasingly repressive environment. Yet, there's a surge of mobilization and determination as the country heads into tomorrow’s parliamentary elections. These elections will undoubtedly shape Georgia’s democratic and foreign policy trajectory for the future. They could also influence regional dynamics - affecting Russia's influence and the EU's role in the region. I explore these issues in my latest piece for The Conversation France.

🟦 BETTING ON INSTABILITY? 🟥 On the evening and the day after the first round of the legislative elections, the "Nouveau Front Populaire" (NFP) cannot envisage an absolute majority and a fortiori the "Ensemble" movement, the figurehead of an ex-"majority", whether alone or with others. In the absence of a clear majority, the latter movement would find itself in the National Assembly in a new configuration of relative majority, but in a clearly diminished position and subject to the left, including the most extreme. Consequently, to declare that the main objective is to prevent the "Rassemblement National"(RN) from obtaining an absolute majority of seats at all costs (NB: is this also the position of "Horizons" or the Parti "Les Républicains" ?) is, in practice, to bet on the instability of the country. The objective of blocking the Rassemblement National at all costs - failing a cohabitation with the latter, however conflictual - could end up forcing the President of the Republic to resign and call an early presidential election. This is what Marine Le Pen had indicated in recent days, while making it clear that she was not formally calling for this, but that it could prove to be the only political outcome. In the immediate term, her party might find it advantageous, in the run-up to the second round of legislative elections and beyond, to develop the argument of the risk of instability with voters. Leaving aside a priori a possible resignation, would the only realistic ultimate objective of a clearly diminished President of the Republic be a negative one (unless one imagines that the left could still be beneficial to the country and truly believes in the concept of a "Republican Front")? Would volatility and instability be preferable to cohabitation? Would destruction be creative, as some economists think? Or is it more a question, in the end, of doing harm above all else in the name of saving face? ► 🔴L’Essentiel de l’Éco🔴 (01/07/2024

An excellent reportage by Le Monde, regarding a TV show broadcasted by French Channel Europe 1 during the latest legislative elections which was headed by the #frontpopulaire. This reportage highlights excellent #dataanalytics techniqueswith over 15 hours replays reviewed and analyzed. It also shows how several TV outlets were used to channel the political views of their owners (a few millionaires/billionaires). If you are into #datascience #dataanalytics and #visualization, and know some French, this video is for you. https://lnkd.in/di9TeX_m

French Legislative Elections – Part 3 – To Withdraw or Not to Withdraw? Unintended Effects   Les Républicains (LR) have refused to withdraw their candidates to faire barrage contre le RN. This has attracted a lot of criticism from the NFP and, to a lesser extent, from the macronie. However, it may well be that staying in the race could in fact be the best way for LR (and divers droite – DIVD) candidates to indirectly support the NFP, as it would deprive the RN candidates of a potential ‘reserve’ of right-leaning votes.   The issue was discussed in a Le Monde article focusing on Corrèze's first constituency, where the LR candidate’s decision to stay in the race is generally regarded as favorable to the election of François Hollande (leading with some 38%) over the RN candidate (who got nearly 31%). And, in fact, the désistement of the LR candidate was warmly encouraged by Eric Ciotti (the LR president allied with the RN), with the goal of “envoyer François Hollande à la retraite”. https://lnkd.in/dJ-RB9_J   Corrèze is not the only case and there are a few other constituencies where the staying of LR/DIVD candidates could enhance the chances of NFP candidates. These include: (i) Essonne 8ème, where the NFP-LFI is leading by a couple of points over the RN-supported boss of Debut la France (and could also count on a decent ‘reserve’ of votes from Lutte Ouvrière and the ‘ecologistes’); (ii) Pyrénées-Atlantiques 4ème, where the NFP-PS candidate is well placed anyway; (iii) Lozère's single constituency, where the NFP-PS is marginally leading (but the RN could count on a significant chuck of Reconquête! votes); (iv) Loire-Atlantique 6ème, where the incumbent NFP-EELV candidate is also marginally leading the RN opponent); and possibly (iv) Ardèche 3ème and Rhone 8ème, where the NFP candidates could also inherit Ensemble votes (but it’s going to be very very close). Bottom line: with so many intertwined factors to be considered, no wonder that election results forecasts in terms of seats still show a significant range

📢 📢 📢 I have been interviewed by La Presse about the results of the first round of #Romania's presidential #elections. In this pivotal moment for Romanian democracy, we see the rise of a far-right independent candidate leading the race—a development that raises critical questions about the future of politics in the region 🌎, but also about technologies that disrupt the electoral processes 👨💻. You can read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/gjvmNP9d