Treadstone 71’s Post

Covert Convergence – Wagner PMC in Venezuela Rumors of Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) operatives in Venezuela surfaced in 2019, deploying in Caracas and the Bolívar state. Reports indicated 200 to 400 personnel operating in roles including strategic asset protection, infrastructure security, and training Venezuelan forces. Their activities fit Venezuela’s politically volatile environment and the country’s ongoing economic dependency on resource extraction. Investigations by Russian outlet Fontanka trace air shipments labeled as "technical equipment" from Rostov-on-Don to Caracas, routed through intermediary nodes in North Africa and the Middle East. Cargo manifests raise questions about concealed shipments of small arms, communications gear, and personal protective equipment. Arrivals of Russian passport holders on service visas substantiate claims of organized foreign support. There are sightings of Russian-speaking groups in military attire near industrial complexes, mining areas, and energy infrastructures in Bolívar state. Convoys of dark, unmarked SUVs reportedly patrol key highways under presumed coordination with local authorities. Spanish-speaking Telegram channels describe Wagner personnel equipped with Kalashnikov rifles, Dragunov sniper systems, and light armored vehicles. Darknet forums contribute info about black-market arms trading by Russian suppliers in exchange for privileged access to Venezuela's resource-rich zones. Posts describe transactions involving thermal optics, sniper scopes, and ballistic protection. Official denials by the Maduro government and Kremlin spokespeople refute claims of formal arrangements with PMCs. However, contradictory narratives on platforms like Twitter and VK stoke public suspicion, with pro-government accounts defending sovereignty while opposition voices accuse elites of complicit involvement. The implications extend beyond Venezuela’s borders. Weapon flows should draw international scrutiny, escalating tensions over arms control and sovereignty. Resource-for-arms exchanges deepen fears of foreign exploitation and internal instability. As local and global actors monitor the situation, the role of private security contractors is a contentious issue in the geopolitics of Latin America. Read the brief #WagnerPMC, #Venezuela, #RussianContractors, #BolívarState, #Caracas, #PrivateMilitary, #ArmsTrade, #SmallArms, #Kalashnikov, #Dragunov, #MilitaryGear, #TintedSUVs, #Convoys, #IndustrialFacilities, #ResourceExtraction, #BlackMarketArms, #Darknet, #MiningOperations, #StrategicAssets, #InfrastructureSecurity, #RussianSuppliers, #Fontanka, #TelegramChannels, #LocalInformants, #MaduroGovernment, #RussianDenials, #VKForums, #OilRefineries, #EnergyInfrastructure, #EconomicDependency, #GeopoliticalTensions, #LatinAmerica, #InternationalScrutiny, #Sovereignty, #SecurityVacuum, #ForeignInfluence, #OppositionClaims, #GovernmentDenials, #CovertOperations www.treadstone 71 - Treadstone 71

Great piece: #Europe must wake up to the reality that #Russia is waging a “#war,” and it directly involves them. This isn’t just a regional conflict confined to Ukraine but a broader, state-sponsored campaign that threatens European stability and security. The reluctance to label acts of war as such is part of a deeper culture of distortion and denial that has taken root in the discourse surrounding state-sponsored violence. Over decades, policymakers and analysts have developed a range of euphemisms to downplay or reframe conflicts: “cold wars,” “police actions,” “#hybridwars,” and “cyber wars.” These terms, while serving various purposes, often obscure the true nature of the violence. For instance, Vladimir Putin calls his invasion of Ukraine a “special military operation” to avoid admitting to the Russian people that he is waging a brutal war of aggression. Similarly, many in Europe refrain from describing Russia’s sabotage campaigns, cyberattacks, and economic warfare outside of Ukraine as acts of war because acknowledging this would demand a tangible and unified response. This #culture of #avoidance has #consequences. https://lnkd.in/dnUYW5tA

#Russia’s #hybridwarfare spills into #NATO, raising new fears Russia’s increasing use of #hybrid and #grayzone attacks against European countries is posing a major challenge for the #US and #NATO: how to respond without sparking a major conflict with #RussianPresident Vladimir #Putin. #Baltic countries, #Poland and the #CzechRepublic in particular, are raising alarm that acts of #sabotage — and sometimes fatal attacks against individuals — allegedly sponsored by Russia are a growing threat to #Europe and the #defensivealliance. 👁️The Hill https://lnkd.in/gucXqywA “Russia is throwing at us all the time new challenges, new risks, and hybrid has turned to be one of the serious ones for the alliance,” #Estonia’s ambassador to NATO, Jüri Luik… “….we have to respond because if we don’t respond, this will grow. And Russia will feel that there are no limits to what they can do in our countries, and obviously, there is also a discussion among allies about what would be the best responses.” Just in the past few weeks, Estonia has raised alarm that Russia was behind the #GPSjamming and disrupting of a #commercialflight, and that Russia is sowing confusion along the border by removing #maritimeborderlines. #Poland has blamed the recent death of a Polish #borderguard as part of the larger, hybrid threat from #Belarus and directed by #Moscow. #Lithuania has said Russia was “likely” behind a March attack on a Russian #politicaldissident in #Vilnius. A #hackinggroup based in Russia is accused of carrying out a dangerous #cyberattack against major #hospitals in #London this month, and instances of #arson across NATO countries — targeting #supplywarehouses for #Ukraine but also civilian sites like an Ikea in Lithuania — have raised suspicions of Russian sabotage. Secretary of State Antony #Blinken acknowledged late last month that the #Kremlin was “intensifying its #hybridattacks” against #NATOmembers and raised the possibility of potential retaliation. “We know what they’re up to, and we will respond both individually and collectively as necessary,” he said following a meeting with foreign ministers of NATO countries. [….] ……Russia’s hybrid activities are too cost-effective for them to stop. There’s no clear answer to establish #deterrence, officials at the meeting discussed. John #Kirby, the #WhiteHouse #nationalsecurityspokesperson, said that the U.S. is closely watching…. “….It is a page from their #playbook.” The leaders of the #BucharestNine — the countries on NATO’s #easternflank: “We are deeply concerned about Russia’s recent malign hybrid activities on #Alliedterritory, which constitute a threat to #Alliedsecurity.” “These incidents are part of an intensifying campaign of activities which Russia continues to carry out across the #EuroAtlantic area, including sabotage, acts of #violence, #cyber and #electronicinterference, #provocations related to #Alliedborders, #disinformationcampaigns and other #hybridoperations.”

‘Countries throughout Europe now acknowledge that their people and infrastructure are under ceaseless attack. Yet each incident is, by itself, below the threshold that would require a military response or trigger Article 5. In recent months, agents of Russian intelligence are believed to have assassinated a defector in Spain, planted explosives near a pipeline in Germany, carried out arson attacks all over the Continent, and sabotaged subsea cables and rail lines. A Russian operative injured himself in Paris while preparing explosives for a terrorist attack on a hardware store, and U.S. intelligence discovered a Russian plot to assassinate the C.E.O. of one of Europe’s largest arms manufacturers. Poland’s interior minister said, “We are facing a foreign state that is conducting hostile and—in military parlance—kinetic action on Polish territory.” Every European country that borders Russia is preparing for a wider war in the event of a Russian victory in Ukraine. Poland and the Baltics are digging trenches at their borders and fortifying them, often with antitank obstacles known as “dragon’s teeth.” Finland cast aside seventy years of neutrality and nonalignment to join nato; Sweden cast aside two hundred.’

A spate of recent arson attacks across Europe has raised serious concerns about a coordinated Russian destabilisation and sabotage campaign across the continent. While the nature of such low-level and random attacks means it is difficult to attribute them directly to Russia, a clear trend is emerging which aligns with previous Russian operations and hybrid capabilities. Russia's military intelligence agency (GRU) is likely relying on organised crime groups to plug intelligence gaps. While the capabilities these groups can provide are relatively crude and increase the risk of collateral damage, they can still contribute to achieving Russian foreign policy objectives, namely: destabilising the West, deterring European leaders from expanding their support for Ukraine, and exacerbating polarisation and societal tension across Europe. Check out my comments on this and the state actor threat for The Telegraph! #russia #europeansecurity #espionage

📯 Ukrposhta, #Ukraine's national postal service, has launched a sale of postal stamps titled "The Budapest Memorandum is bull***it!" According to the Ukrposhta CEO, the stamp was inspired by a comment made by President Zelenskyy during an interview with Lex Fridman. The Budapest Memorandum on #Security Assurances, signed in 1994, has been criticized as "bulls**t" by some commentators due to its perceived failure to provide meaningful security guarantees to Ukraine. Here's why: 🔒 Non-binding agreement with no legal enforcement mechanisms. 🤝 Signatories (Russia, US, UK) provided vague assurances, not concrete commitments. 🚫 Failed to prevent Russia's annexation of Crimea (2014) and aggression in Eastern Ukraine. ⚠️ Western responses (sanctions, condemnation) were insufficient and lacked #military support. 🛑 Ukraine's disarmament (nuclear weapons) was irreversible; assurances were abstract and unreliable. ⚖️ Highlighted imbalance: Ukraine made a significant concession, but gained little security. 🤔 Undermined trust in international agreements and disarmament processes. 🛡️ Demonstrated the ineffectiveness of unenforced security assurances. Russia breaks every agreement and treaty they make. Always has and always will. If we now fail to ensure Ukrainian victory no one in the world will ever believe western security assurances ever again.

How and why Russia is conducting sabotage and hybrid-war offensive 5 Nov 2024 | Jon Richardson Sabotage operations are part of its larger hybrid war campaign. This is designed to cause fear and division in order to undermine support for Ukraine without going so far as provoking war. Russian hybrid warfare encompasses several tactics, most notably cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns. Another grey-zone tactic is weaponising immigration. Russian authorities direct migrants into neighbouring European countries without proper documentation, instructing them to claim asylum there. The aim is to destabilise those neighbours. European officials reported Russian plans to set up a 15,000-strong force comprising former militias in Libya to control the flow of migrants. Migration routes through Libya link to other places with Russian military or paramilitary presence, notably through Central African Republic and Sudan, as well as Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Fostering irregular migration further supports right-wing European parties which oppose immigration and European integration and which Russia funds. These include AfD in Germany, National Rally in France and Reform UK, which all gained in recent elections and are mostly Russia-friendly and critical of support for Ukraine. Western leaders have been reluctant to call for a more vigorous response to Russian sabotage, probably out of fear of escalation. Some media reports even suggest that fears of retaliatory sabotage actions, such as attacks on US bases, have fed into US reluctance to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles. The West is running out of non-military options for response, since it is already imposing extensive economic and diplomatic sanctions against Moscow and has limited capacity or opportunity to retaliate in kind inside Russia. Still, a more strenuous response by Western governments is needed. Former Finnish president Sauli Niinisto has suggested that the EU needs its own pan-European intelligence agency to help countries fend off threats, saboteurs and espionage. At the very least, the US and Europe should respond to Russian hybrid warfare by removing the shackles from Ukraine, allowing it to repel the Russian invaders from its territory.

Also important to note that no rational country will ever again voluntarily give up nuclear weapons after this betrayal of Ukraine by both sides. Disarmament is a quaint theory.

The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, signed in 1994, has been criticized as "bulls**t" by some commentators due to its perceived failure to provide meaningful security guarantees to Ukraine. Here's why: Non-binding agreement with no legal enforcement mechanisms. Signatories (Russia, US, UK) provided vague assurances, not concrete commitments. Failed to prevent Russia's annexation of Crimea (2014) and aggression in Eastern Ukraine. Western responses (sanctions, condemnation) were insufficient and lacked military support. Ukraine's disarmament (nuclear weapons) was irreversible; assurances were abstract and unreliable. Highlighted imbalance: Ukraine made a significant concession, but gained little security. Undermined trust in international agreements and disarmament processes. Demonstrated the ineffectiveness of unenforced security assurances. Russia breaks every agreement and treaty they make. Always has and always will.

Join Fox News for access to this content You have reached your maximum number of articles. Log in or create an account FREE of charge to continue reading. By entering your email and pushing continue, you are agreeing to Fox News’ Terms of Use and Privacy Policy, which includes our Notice of Financial Incentive. Please enter a valid email address. Having trouble? Click here. Ukrainian officials say that using Western weapons to strike inside Russia would deeply impact Moscow’s capability to operate in border areas. The step would help push back Russian advances and better defend territory in the northeast Kharkiv region, according to Kyiv officials. Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city with about 1.3 million people, is about 18 miles from the Russian border. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff said on Tuesday that using Western weapons to strike inside Russia was a vital decision that would impact Moscow’s tactical aviation and its capability to operate in border areas. Following pressure from Ukraine and some of its European allies, the U.S. agreed last week to change its policy and allow Kyiv to strike inside Russia with Western weapons as part of its campaign to repel Russia’s full-scale invasion. Kyiv said the step would help push back Russian advances and better defend territory in the northeast Kharkiv region. PRESSURE GROWS ON BIDEN ADMIN TO ALLOW UKRAINE TO USE US WEAPONS TO HIT RUSSIA: ‘RATHER UNFORTUNATE’ “Permission to use Western weapons on the territory of the Russian Federation is a vital decision,” Andriy Yermak said on the Telegram messaging app. Ukrainian soldiers of the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade fire a Leopard 2A6 tank during a military exercise near a front line in Donetsk region, Ukraine, on May 12, 2024. (REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko/ File Photo) “This will impact the conduct of the war, planning of counteroffensive actions, and will weaken Russians’ abilities to use their forces in the border areas.” The decision would also help to better fend off Russian aerial attacks, Yermak said. Ukraine has frequently targeted occupied Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, with Western-made weapons. But outgunned and outmanned on the battlefield, Kyiv had pleaded with Washington to allow it to strike targets on Russian soil with U.S.-made weapons, as Moscow launched a new front in the northeastern Kharkiv region. CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city with about 1.3 million people, is about 18 miles from the Russian border. U.S. administration officials say the latest decision was narrowly tailored to the battle in the Kharkiv region. They say it allows Kyiv to use U.S.-supplied weapons to fire back against Russian forces “attacking them or preparing to attack them” from across the border. Ukraine is also trying to develop its own weapons – mainly focusing on drones – to hit targets inside Russia. Some