We are a little over ten days into this new Administration, and I am still trying to keep up with the relentless pace of change, grasp the significance of each action and manage my overwhelming sense of uncertainty for the future. Like so many of you I am bracing myself for the beginning of the “tariff wars” which will begin in earnest this weekend.
As we approach these unprecedented actions, I am publishing an excerpt from my podcast, where I outline five things that we can be certain of in the world of cross-border trade in 2025 along with suggested steps to manage through it.
Five Certainties:
1. A new President, new members of his Administration, and new policies. This has led to unpredictability and volatility and requires traders to be Alert. You will need to establish robust sensing capabilities and rely on strong GA relationships.
2. Geopolitical tension led by US/China/Russia/Middle East. This will lead to increasing regulations and will require traders to Anticipate potential actions across the globe. You will need to proactively identify alternatives and utilize other mechanisms such as "war rooms" to mitigate supply chain and compliance risk.
3. Use of tariffs as a tool for negotiation and/or revenue. This will lead to both offensive and defensive plays by countries and companies and will require traders to Adjust. You will need to determine how to de-risk and readjust supply chains to minimize disruption and additional cost.
4. Increasing Sanctions. This will lead to greater compliance risk and greater circumvention and will require traders to carefully Analyze all business relationships across their entire portfolio. You will need to implement robust processes and systems to ensure compliance.
5. Reenergized and focused enforcement. This will lead to more scrutiny, fines and penalties and requires traders to Assess compliance programs. You can no longer cut corners and rely on old practices but must prioritize compliance across the entire enterprise.
In summary, those participating in cross-border trade will need to consider these five actions to address ongoing uncertainties.
1) Be Alert, 2) Anticipate, 3) Adjust, 4) Analyze and 5) Assess.
#tariffs,#globaltrade,#geopolitics,#compliance
Health | Tech | Lord | Non-Exec
5moAnd the podbean link - https://www.podbean.com/ew/pb-i36jp-16d76b7