Nuvocargo’s Post

Today, as I celebrate my birthday, I am truly grateful for another year of growth, both personally and professionally. However, I still need to find a way to explain to my nine year-old daughter that one year wiser does not imply one year older, given this year I’ve decided to start aging in reverse (any suggestions on how to approach the matter are welcome!). And today, on my birthday, what a better gift than the opportunity to speak on a topic close to my heart: the opportunities for Mexico and Latin America amid the U.S. rebalancing of imports with #Bridge49 and the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico, moderated by Claudio X. Gonzalez C from Nuvocargo. Those familiar with my research know I approach the term "nearshoring" with skepticism—not because it lacks truth, but because it often seems overhyped. The commercial relationship between Mexico and the U.S. is longstanding, evolving from a maquila-driven economy to one fueled by manufacturing exports. Nearshoring, or "friend-shoring," is simply the next chapter in this narrative. However, this opportunity extends beyond Mexico. As the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) notes, Central American countries like Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador may benefit more from import-substitution opportunities in the U.S. relative to their GDP. Yet, Mexico's robust infrastructure and over 50 free trade agreements position it uniquely to lead and facilitate regional trade. In this context, logistics and transportation emerge as key sectors poised for growth. Investment trends were another focal point of our discussion. While 2023 saw a surge in private investments, new foreign direct investment (FDI) fell significantly. The nearshoring hype led to investment exuberance, and 2024 may see investments stall amid uncertainty. However, the U.S. Census Bureau's projection that Mexico will soon become the largest exporter of advanced technology products to the U.S. presents a significant opportunity to ramp up the country’s value-add contribution to such products, which currently stands at about half of that for the auto industry, for example. To transition from "manufacturing" to "mindfacturing," Mexico must focus on education and knowledge exchange with commercial partners. Technology, particularly AI, is pivotal in this transformation. It's not about where AI can help, but why wouldn’t it help. Identifying operational bottlenecks and leveraging technology to address them will be revolutionary. Companies need to adopt these technologies and invest in preparing for this new competitive landscape. These insights align with the themes in our 2025 Outlook, emphasizing resilient portfolios and investments in future security and technology. Beyond Mexico, these are opportunities to leverage for both financial portfolios and long-term strategic planning. Thank you to everyone who has been part of my journey in these last X-1 years. Looking forward to year X-2!

Global sentiment about the economy appears more positive in 2024 compared to 2023. However, several pressing concerns—geopolitical instability, elections in over 60 countries, global monetary-policy uncertainty, and recent market volatility in Japan—persist. These challenges are hindering recovery in private markets, at least in the near term. In the attached article, we summarized how 2024 is unfolding in private markets so far.

Where do current investment opportunities and risks lie? 🤔 The first quarter of 2024 was characterised by a globally synchronised growth narrative. The US economy has remained robust, and recovery looks set to broaden out to other regions. We consider the outlook for financial markets in our latest Investment comment 👉 https://bit.ly/4dk4yeo #InvestmentComment #MarketOutlook

Global sentiment about the economy seems more positive so far in 2024 than seen in 2023. However, several pressing concerns—geopolitical instability, elections in more than 60 countries, monetary-policy uncertainty around the world, and recent market volatility in Japan, to name a few—remain. These challenges are impeding recovery in private markets, at least for the near term. With Andrew Mullin, David Quigley, Brian Vickery, Federico Feijoo and Hadrien Le Floch we analyzed at how 2024 is unfolding in private markets. #privatecapital #privateequity #PE #markets #privatemarkets

Where do the current investment opportunities and risks lie? 🤔 The first quarter of 2024 was characterizsed by a globally synchronizsed growth narrative, with a US economy that has remained robust and the prospect of a recovery broadening out to other regions. We consider the outlook for financial markets in our latest Investment Comment Outlook 👉 https://bit.ly/44juB16 #InvestmentOutlook #MarketOutlook

Global sentiment about the economy seems more positive so far in 2024 than seen in 2023. However, several pressing concerns—geopolitical instability, elections in more than 60 countries, monetary-policy uncertainty around the world, and recent market volatility in Japan, to name a few—remain. These challenges are impeding recovery in private markets, at least for the near term. With Andrew Mullin, David Quigley, Brian Vickery, Jose Luis Blanco Alvarez and Hadrien Le Floch we analyzed at how 2024 is unfolding in private markets. #privatecapital #privateequity #PE #markets #privatemarkets

Next wave of wealth won't come from America, Rochir Sharma, Chairman of Rockefeller International, tells. His analysis shows top U.S. stocks could underperform global markets by 10%. He claims, trends he is predicting is result of decades of market data analysis and global economic patterns, He says, overspending on AI by big technical firms will hit them. These investments are unsustainable. The U.S. is running unprecedented deficits that dwarf other nations. This mounting debt directly threatens market stability and the dollar's strength. When debt servicing costs spike, it will force a fundamental revaluation of U.S. assets. U.S. tech valuations have reached extreme levels compared to global markets. Technical indicators show the largest price-to-value gap in modern market history. This sets the stage for a massive rotation into undervalued global assets. The market's rise doesn't match fundamental growth. This disconnect signals an imminent correction in U.S. equities. China's economy is transitioning to high-value tech and innovation. Their focus on profitable sectors and cutting-edge technology threatens U.S. dominance. This shift will attract global capital seeking growth at reasonable valuations. Southeast Asia, led by the Philippines' 5.8% GDP growth, is becoming a major force. The region's manufacturing prowess and technological advancement rival developed markets. This shift in economic power will draw capital away from U.S. markets. https://lnkd.in/d6ME5KiK

Where do the current investment opportunities and risks lie? 🤔 The first quarter of 2024 was characterizsed by a globally synchronizsed growth narrative, with a US economy that has remained robust and the prospect of a recovery broadening out to other regions. We consider the outlook for financial markets in our latest Investment Comment Outlook 👉 https://bit.ly/3UzH6T5 #InvestmentOutlook #MarketOutlook

Where do the current investment opportunities and risks lie? 🤔 The first quarter of 2024 was characterizsed by a globally synchronizsed growth narrative, with a US economy that has remained robust and the prospect of a recovery broadening out to other regions. We consider the outlook for financial markets in our latest Investment Comment Outlook 👉 https://bit.ly/3UBTMsR #InvestmentOutlook #MarketOutlook