Nitin A. Gokhale’s Post

How, under PM Modi, the Gulf became an essential component of India's "extended neighbourhood" https://ift.tt/51Zt8hL With Saudi Arabia coming in fourth, the UAE is India's third-largest trade partner overall and has been the country's main trading partner inside the Gulf on a constant basis. Delhi, New: According to a research by the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Gulf area has grown in significance as a strategic partner of India and is now an essential component of its "extended neighbourhood." Prior to the Lok Sabha elections, PM Modi made his second-to-last trip to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). India's ties with the Gulf nations have changed since Prime Minister Modi took office in 2014. According to Viraj Solanki, Research Fellow for South and Central Asian Defence, Strategy and Diplomacy, IISS, the Gulf has emerged as a key area of interest and influence for New Delhi in terms of foreign and security policy. This is stated in a paper for the ISPI. Formerly, the connection was limited to energy, commerce, and Indian expatriates; over time, it expanded to include political ties, investment, and collaboration in defense and security. India's current top goals include strengthening its regional presence and influence, resolving security issues in the area, particularly those involving the Arabian Sea and the Gulf, and luring investments to boost economic development. In contrast to his August 2019 travel to Bahrain, Prime leader Modi's 2015 visit to the United Arab Emirates was the first one by an Indian prime leader in 34 years. This was his eighth trip to the Gulf state, including the UAE. With 8.8 million Indian people living in the Gulf, India has a significant interest in its stability. The biggest economic grouping in the area for India is the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). In FY2022-23, trade with the GCC accounted for 15.8% of India's overall trade, while trade with the EU accounted for 11.6%. With Saudi Arabia coming in fourth, the UAE is India's third-largest trade partner overall and has been the country's main trading partner inside the Gulf on a constant basis. A new framework for India-Gulf relations is focused on investment, political contacts, and defense and security cooperation. This is the outcome of India's expanding strategic and commercial interests in the Gulf area. There has been a rise in economic collaboration between India and the Gulf as a result of the rising Gulf investments in India. Notably, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have declared investment ambitions in India of USD 100 billion and USD 75 billion, respectively, as the country's economy becomes more and more appealing. At USD 15.3 billion, the UAE is now India's seventh-largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI). As of March 2022, Saudi Arabia had invested USD 3.2 billion, while Qatar had invested more than USD 1.5 billion in the previous year. T...

I respect Australia's diplomatic policy towards Southeast Asia/ASEAN, as a sovereign country. But still, I can't help but point out the hypocrisy of it, as Australia, the US and other Western countries have been criticizing China for years for trying to divide ASEAN nations by preferring to deal with them bilaterally rather than as a bloc in order to reduce their bargaining power, especially in regard to the South China Sea and trade issues. Now, Australia is essentially doing the same thing? Further, despite misgivings and criticism from time to time, ASEAN countries generally still see the centrality of ASEAN and treat the institution and community seriously. As Bilahari Kausikan and others have said, ASEAN is a dispute resolution platform, not a supranational or regional governing organization like the EU. Most Southeast Asians know that while ASEAN may seem passive or even inert, it has managed to avert intraregional wars and conflict, and accordingly has laid the ground for smooth socioeconomic development over the past decades. As the saying goes, ASEAN is like the air you breathe - you don't notice it when it's around, but you will certainly notice it when it's gone. Before the founding of ASEAN in 1967, interstate wars and conflicts were aplenty - Indonesia vs Malaysia, Philippines vs Malaysia, Cambodia vs Vietnam, Cambodia vs Thailand, and so on. While intraregional conflicts still exist, they have been greatly reduced by the formation of ASEAN. Therefore, while Southeast Asian nations being sovereign states are of course fine with dealing with external powers bilaterally, they won't jettison ASEAN or stop working together as a bloc under the platform simply because external powers don't like ASEAN. Malaysia will assume the ASEAN chairmanship next year in 2025 - I would be interested to see how Malaysia under the diplomatically active PM Anwar Ibrahim will guide ASEAN amidst geopolitical forces that are keen to tear ASEAN asunder. 'With its unity rocked by discord over issues related to the South China Sea and Myanmar, ASEAN may see Australia's policy shift as an attempt to deepen its divisions. "ASEAN 'really' does matter to Australia. However, whether Australia matters to ASEAN remains to be seen," Kavi Chongkittavorn, a senior fellow at Thailand's Chulalongkorn University, said in a newspaper commentary.' https://lnkd.in/geEsJCYx

For the information of our politicians and their supporters Sri Lanka can balance its relations with China and India by pursuing a pragmatic, non-aligned foreign policy that emphasizes mutual benefits, sovereignty, and regional cooperation. Here’s how this balance can be achieved: 1. Maintain Neutrality in Regional Rivalries • Avoid taking sides in the geopolitical competition between China and India. Sri Lanka should emphasize that its partnerships are purely based on economic and developmental needs, not to favor one power over the other. 2. Leverage Geographic Position • Located strategically in the Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka can position itself as a hub for regional trade and connectivity, ensuring its ports and facilities are open to all and not dominated by a single country. 3. Diversify Economic Partnerships • While engaging with China on infrastructure development, Sri Lanka can maintain strong trade, cultural, and political ties with India. Strengthening ties with other nations (e.g., Japan, the EU, and the U.S.) will also reduce over-dependence on either China or India. 4. Transparent Agreements • By ensuring that agreements with both nations are transparent, fair, and free from hidden agendas, Sri Lanka can prevent any misunderstandings. For example, ensuring equitable terms in Chinese-funded projects and Indian collaborations will build trust with both sides. 5. Strengthen Regional Integration • Actively participating in regional forums like SAARC, BIMSTEC, and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) can help Sri Lanka foster regional cooperation and mitigate tensions. 6. Cultural and Historical Ties • Sri Lanka shares deep cultural, historical, and religious ties with India. These relationships can be emphasized while framing its policies, reminding India of their shared heritage while maintaining cordial relations with China. 7. Debt Management and Economic Independence • Properly managing debt, especially Chinese loans, can prevent economic vulnerabilities. A more self-reliant economy reduces external pressures from either side. 8. Bilateral Diplomacy • Regular high-level dialogues with both China and India can ensure open communication and avoid misunderstandings. These dialogues should emphasize Sri Lanka’s sovereign interests. 9. Encourage People-to-People Relations • Promote tourism, cultural exchanges, and academic collaborations with both nations to build goodwill and strengthen ties at the grassroots level. 10. National Interest First • Above all, Sri Lanka should prioritize its own economic development, security, and stability, using its relationships with both China and India to achieve these goals without compromising its sovereignty. Balancing these relationships will require careful diplomacy, transparency, and a strong focus on Sri Lanka’s long-term national interests. Upali Muthumuni Upali Muthumuni Ranjika de Silva

🚨 This Week's Global BRICS Round-Up! 🌍 ✨ Syria Urges BRICS to Aid Reconstruction 🇸🇾 Syria has called on BRICS countries to play a pivotal role in its post-conflict reconstruction. The nation seeks support from emerging economies to rebuild and recover. 🤝 🏛️ Syria's BRICS Membership Should Be Decided by Elected Authorities The decision regarding Syria's potential membership in BRICS should be made by elected authorities, as the country's path forward is shaped by its leadership. 🇸🇾🔑 🌍 Why Bahrain is Considering a Future in BRICS+ 🇧🇭 Bahrain is exploring its future in the BRICS+ framework, eyeing new trade and investment opportunities. Will this move strengthen the Middle East’s influence in global trade? 📈💼 🌐 International Trade Solutions Offered by the BRICS Summit The recent BRICS Summit highlighted new international trade solutions designed to challenge traditional systems. BRICS nations are reshaping global economic policies. 🌎🔗 🇱🇰 President Renews Sri Lanka’s Bid to Join BRICS Sri Lanka is renewing its efforts to join BRICS, aiming for economic partnerships that foster growth and regional stability. Will Sri Lanka become the next BRICS member? 🤔💡 🌟 Senior Russian Diplomat Sees BRICS as a 'Ray of Hope' Russia's senior diplomat emphasizes BRICS as a beacon for nations resisting Western influence. The alliance is seen as a symbol of hope for those who defy Western dictates. ✊🌍 🤝 BRICS Not Against the West, Putin Says Russian President Vladimir Putin clarifies that BRICS is not an adversary of the West but aims to foster a multi-polar world. The organisation seeks collaboration, not confrontation. 🌐🤝 #BRICS #GlobalTrade #Syria #SriLanka #Bahrain #Russia #BRICSPlus #EconomicGrowth #InternationalRelations #GlobalEconomy #BRICSSummit #ForeignPolicy #TradeSolutions #BRICSMembership https://lnkd.in/ex_rBHSg

The bond between Pakistan and China continues to grow stronger as both nations reaffirm their deep-rooted commitment to bilateral ties. Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar’s meeting with Chinese Ambassador Jiang Zaidong on Tuesday highlighted the enduring partnership between these two all-weather friends. The Foreign Office dismissed baseless allegations questioning Pakistan’s loyalty to China, reaffirming that the One-China Policy is, and will remain, a cornerstone of Pakistan’s foreign policy. Despite criticism over Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi’s participation in an event linked to an anti-China group, Pakistan has left no room for doubt that its relationship with China remains solid and unwavering. China has been a key supporter of Pakistan’s development journey. Projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) have been a game changer for Pakistan’s economy, described as a “lifeline” for progress and growth. As part of CPEC 2.0, both countries are set to achieve even greater milestones. Ambassador Jiang also extended an invitation from Chinese Foreign Minister H.E. Wang Yi to Deputy Prime Minister Dar for an upcoming UNSC event on global governance. Accepting the invitation, Dar emphasized Pakistan’s commitment to multilateralism and global cooperation. Pakistan and China’s relationship is more than just diplomacy—it’s a friendship built on trust, mutual respect, and shared goals. Together, they continue to work for a better, more connected future. #PakistanChinaFriendship #CPEC #OneChinaPolicy #GlobalCooperation #StrategicPartnership Ministry of Education, China Ministry of Commerce, China (MOFCOM) Ministry of IT and Telecom Pakistan Ministry of Federal Education and Professional Training Ministry of Foreign Affairs Pakistan Embassy of P.R.China Ministry of Planning Development and Special Initiatives Ahsan Iqbal Chaudhary Nazakat Hussain

David Goldman details how and why Eurasia too is going its own way: "China is cleaning up America’s mess in the region following the collapse of Afghanistan by building railways, roads and broadband, and pouring investment into countries that might represent a future source of instability." "focusing on FDI from China seems more promising for boosting India’s exports to the US, similar to how East Asian economies did in the past,’" "Modi asked Putin to help India resolve its longstanding border dispute with China. (...) Russian mediation, however informal, would entail a diplomatic revolution, and make a mockery of America’s hope of rallying Asian countries against China.”" "India’s bottomless appetite for discounted Russian oil propelled its imports from Russia to US$67 billion in 2023 from only $8.7 billion in 2022. India, moreover, acts as Russia’s distribution agent, re-selling Russian oil and distillates to third countries." "China, India and Russia have a common interest in stabilizing the Muslim populations of Asia." "Only China has the resources to accomplish this through economic development." Eurasia and the Global South are going in the same directions. #GlobalSouthgoingitsownway #DanceofTheTriad #Eurasia

Article worth reading without the usual Western China is strongarming Africa narrative. BTW, when has a G7 country last met with 53 African countries at the same time and sat down with them to listen what they have to say? […] In recent years some observers have argued that China’s engagement with the African continent is motivated by a desire for access to its natural resources. The relationship has become, in fact, much more nuanced and multifaceted. Africa also plays a role in China’s call for a community of developing countries as a counterweight to a Western-based international order. In this view, the 2024 summit in Beijing will be a pivotal event for both China and Africa. […] #china #africa #trade #development #globalsouth #diplomacy #geopolitics #strategy #commodities

This Week in International Relations: Global Shifts and Strategic Moves As the world continues to evolve, three major developments have shaped the international landscape this week: 1️⃣ Pager Attacks: Where is the conflict headed? A well-planned attack by the Israeli agencies on pagers has left hundreds injured and nine people dead. With this seeming like out of a spy scene, this latest confrontation between the Israelis and Hezbollah members has opened up a new front in the conflict. A political settlement will require a prolonged ceasefire, which seems extremely far away now. With the lastest explosions, The Israelis have made the point of being able to inflitrate in Hamas' and Hezbollah's infrastructure. But with this new attack, the future of the region seems more uncertain than ever. 2️⃣ China is taking its bilateral relationhsips to the next level. China elevated relationships with 30 African countries at the China-Africa Cooperation's 9th Ministerial Conference. The Chinese Premier, Xi Jinping offered nearly $51 billion in soft loans and commitments, while also calling for a network of links over land and sea between China and Africa, under the Belt and Road Initiative. On the other hand, China has changed its stance on its realtionship with India. Since 2024, tensions between the two countries are easing, with regular instances of diplomatioc relations and high-level talks between the two. In addition, there has also been some progress in border affairs consultations in the decades long border conflict. But, for India, there is a need to maintain caution, even when it talks peace with China. 3️⃣ Bangladesh in Turmoil On August 5, Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled Bangladesh, ending her long rule after weeks of escalating anti-government student demonstrations. In the immediate aftermath of her resignation, Sheikh Hasina flew to Delhi in neighbouring India. The interim government, led by Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus, has vowed to restore peace and has begun talks with the US for economic growth. We can only hope that normalcy is restored in Bangladesh and democracy can prevail, but this situation will impact Bangladesh's economy and world standing negatviely in the near future. As these stories unfold, they remind us of the dynamic nature of international relations and the need for continuous dialogue and collaboration.

https://lnkd.in/dHvEKc_g India's balancing act with the West as Brics flexes new muscles Michael Kugelman October 25, 2024 But this past week, at its annual summit in Russia, the group triumphantly showcased just how far it has come. Top leaders from 36 countries, as well as the UN Secretary General, attended the three-day event, and Brics formally welcomed four new members - Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. More membership expansions could soon follow. Brics had previously added only one new member - South Africa in 2010 - since its inception (as the Bric states) in 2006. There’s a growing buzz around Brics, which has long projected itself as an alternative to Western-led models of global governance. Today, it’s becoming more prominent and influential as it capitalises on growing dissatisfaction with Western policies and financial structures. Ironically, India - perhaps the most Western-oriented Brics member - is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the group’s evolution and expansion. India enjoys deep ties with most new Brics members. Egypt is a growing trade and security partner in the Middle East. The UAE (along with Saudi Arabia, which has been offered Brics membership but hasn’t yet formally joined) is one of India’s most important partners overall. India’s relationship with Ethiopia is one of its longest and closest in Africa. Brics' original members continue to offer important benefits for India too. Delhi can leverage Brics to signal its continued commitment to close friend Russia, despite Western efforts to isolate it. And working with rival China in Brics helps India in its slow, cautious effort to ease tensions with Beijing, especially on the heels of a border patrolling deal announced by Delhi on the eve of the summit. That announcement likely gave Prime Minister Narendra Modi the necessary diplomatic and political space to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the summit's sidelines. Additionally, Brics enables India to advance its core foreign policy principle of strategic autonomy, whereby it aims to balance relations with a wide spectrum of geopolitical players, without formally allying with any of them. Delhi has important partnerships, both bilateral and multilateral, inside and outside the West. In that sense, its presence in an increasingly robust Brics and relations with its members can be balanced with its participation in a revitalised Indo-Pacific Quad and its strong ties with the US and other Western powers. More broadly, Brics’ priorities are India’s priorities.