Madhavankutty G’s Post

What does a #Modi win (or loss) mean for the #forexmarket? While historical #trends post General #Election results bode well for the #rupee, at least in the near term, market participants are still hoping there are no rude surprises on Tuesday. Read this #SPECIAL report from Informist Media Pvt Ltd by Kabir Sharma and Richard Fargose; edited by yours truly.

The world’s largest election commenced on April 19th and is scheduled to span six weeks, involving approximately 969 million voters and 2,600 political parties. This brief write-up delves into the consequent implications for markets and investments. The election period extends from April 19th to June 1st, with the final tallying of results on June 4th, followed by the inauguration of the new administration by mid-June. Read more: https://lnkd.in/dxQfWm8M #IndiaElection #MarketOutlook #BJP #Modi #Investments #EconomicForecast #InvestingInsights

Election Results in June 2024 – Implications for Investors Read more : https://lnkd.in/g2auhQba Follow us for more updates on Markets and Investments #Elections2024 #InvestmentAdvisory #FinancialPlanning #JamaWealth

A weekly round-up of key events in markets and personal finance news. Markets rise as pivotal election and budget approach. #election #budget #financialplanning

After local elections deliver a heavy blow to the incumbent party, Roger Mark reflects on President Erdoğan’s surprisingly conciliatory tone and apparent ongoing commitment to orthodox policymaking, and considers what this means for fixed income investors. 🔗 https://nty.one/3Wa7uV5 Investment involves risk; losses may be made. Professional investors only. #emergingmarkets #turkey #erdogan #elections #investing #investment

#Elections can create both short-term noise that may not impact the underlying economic backdrop, as well as concrete policy changes with lasting, tangible ramifications. Distinguishing between the two dynamics is crucial. The policy positions that candidates adopt on the campaign trail can sometimes lead to real consequences for investors. Other times, elections create a great deal of temporary noise that ultimately fails to translate into meaningful impacts on the economy. We remain focused on the fundamental picture and how it might be altered by different political outcomes. In this regard, the election could present three different sets of risks and opportunities: 1. A unified government. We view this scenario as potentially the most disruptive for financial markets. Were the same party to control both the executive and legislative branches, it would increase chances for larger budget deficits and more partisan fiscal policies. 2. A divided government. Investors would most likely prefer this scenario, since it would lower the probability of rising budget deficits. However, it would also lead to more political brinkmanship and could cause many provisions of the TCJA to expire without being renewed at the end of 2025. It could also create volatility as the debt ceiling will have to be lifted once again, likely by the end of next summer. 3. Trade tariffs. Given the significant ramp up in trade levies that are at the core of former President Trump’s economic agenda, and the broad latitude at his disposal to act via executive power rather than Congressional approval, intensifying trade tensions could be a key development for markets in 2025. While we expect prediction odds and official polls to remain volatile heading into November, both candidates have outlined key policy priorities that may be enacted if elected, which could have significant impacts on the stock and bonds markets. In this issue of #CIOPerspectives, we focus on those measures most likely to disrupt current macroeconomic projections and their likelihood of being enacted.  https://lnkd.in/dzAGecTN

Cited robust consumer spending during the Christmas season as the main growth driver. Preparations for the May 2025 midterm elections would have also led to faster government spending, especially on infrastructure, in the latter part of 2024. Also pointed to the successive interest rate cuts in late 2024 as one of the factors that could have supported the faster growth in investments, either new investments or expansion projects. https://lnkd.in/gxFc59Un

Romania’s grand coalition to get easy electoral ride, followed by tough choices #bne #bneEditorsPicks #romania #elections #economy Romania's ruling coalition, made up of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and their former rivals, the National Liberal Party (PNL), is expected to coast to victory in the general election this autumn. Yet, despite what appears to be a smooth electoral path, the coalition will soon face a series of tough policy decisions, particularly around fiscal consolidation — a challenge that Romania can no longer afford to delay. Formed in December 2021, the grand coalition between the PSD and PNL is far from a natural alliance. These two parties have long been adversaries, occasionally coming together in short-lived collaborations but often finding themselves at odds. However, the current partnership between the two parties had endured, as their different ideologies take second place to the need for mutual survival, Marcus How of political risk advisory ViennEast Consulting told a webinar on September 5, jointly organised by Raiffeisen Research.

With the recent elections in the US, there's some interesting tidbits here of how different parties have affected the market, highlighting some key points.

In our latest insight piece, our editor Matthew Cunningham looks at what India’s general election means for the economy ahead. Check it out: https://lnkd.in/eBz2cc9g #India #IndianEconomy #IndianElections #MacroEconomies #Economies