Yesterday we saw the announcement of a second toll agreement of battery energy storage in GB - but this one looks a bit different.
1) it's for a single, new-build asset (albeit one that's already being constructed).
2) It's for seven years, as opposed to two in the Gresham House/Octopus deal.
We estimated the value of that tolling agreement at around £57k/MW/year for a 1.6-hour portfolio.
We think this agreement for the 3.3-hour project could be in the range of £70-80k/MW/year, based on project economics and the balancing of priorities on both sides.
At a toll level of £75k/MW/year, BW/Penso Power would significantly derisk the project while still earning a return (£108k/MW/year when combined with Capacity Market and TNUoS revenues).
Meanwhile, Shell would capture the upside if revenues increase as projected — earning up to around 22% of merchant revenue (compared to ~5% for a typical optimization agreement). But they carry the risk if the market does not recover to expected levels.
Tolls are important not just because they shift risk within a project to those best suited to carry it, but also because they have the potential to attract new investment in storage from lower-risk, more traditional infrastructure players—something critical for supporting the net-zero transition.
With the duration of this toll extending out to seven years, it feels like we are on the way there.
Check out more of our analysis of the toll here: https://lnkd.in/eZA5cTur
General Manager, Ontario Operations
1moProud to be part of the project. Congrats! to KCE and Black and McDonald team.