Katarzyna Rzentarzewska’s Post

TRUMP WON. CEE CURRENCIES WEAKENED BUT HUNGARIAN FORINT IS THE MOST VULNERABLE. WE ZOOM IN ON HUNGARY 🔎🔎🔎 Donald Trump is projected to become the next US president. The extent to which President Trump realizes his election promises will influence the economic and market development in Central and Eastern Europe. 📉 Depreciation of the Hungarian forint has been long-lasting. Over the last decade, the Hungarian forint has lost 30% against the euro. 📊 The weak economic performance in recent quarters, high likelihood of no fiscal consolidation before 2026 parliamentary elections, and limited access to EU funds support higher EURHUF levels. 🔍 We try to capture the share of variation coming from regional co-movements across currencies as well as the impact of country-specific factors (monetary and fiscal policy as well as political situation). We find that country-specific factors add to weakening pressure in Hungary, as opposed to Czechia and Poland. 💸 The weak Hungarian forint will tie the hands of the central bank, which otherwise could proceed with monetary easing (which could help to stimulate economic growth as well). Fundamentally, the surpluses on the trade and current account balances support the forint, but perhaps not enough to change the trend. The overall vulnerability demands maintaining the positive interest rate differential. Great work by Juraj Kotian, Jakub Čery, Orsolya Nyeste, and János Nagy! 👏👏 #ErsteGroupResearch #Trump #CEEInsights

🎉 Today marks 25 years since the euro (€) was adopted as the official accounting currency by 12 countries in the European Union! 🌍💶 💬 How do you see the euro’s adoption today? Has it strengthened Europe’s economic bonds or faced challenges along the way? Share your thoughts below! 👇 🌐 Learn more about this transformative moment in European history on MoofLife.com. #EuroAnniversary #EUHistory #EconomicUnity #MoofLifeMoments https://lnkd.in/dW9GqR2Y

Two-thirds – or more – of respondents in Hungary (67%) and Romania (70%) think that, for them personally, the introduction of the euro would have positive consequences. This view is also shared by more than half of respondents in Sweden (57%). For more info on the Eurobarometer on the Introduction of the euro in the Member States that have not yet adopted the common currency https://lnkd.in/dYisJczp

💸 USD/HUF: A Currency at the Crossroads 📉 The Hungarian forint continues its decade-long decline, raising concerns about the country’s economic stability. In 2023 alone, the forint lost 8% against the euro and 13% against the US dollar, highlighting ongoing pressures in Hungary’s monetary policy and economic strategy. Key Insights: 📉 Long-term decline: Over 10 years, USD/HUF dropped 59%, while EUR/HUF fell 35%. 🏦 Policy challenges: With Hungary’s National Bank Governor stepping down in March, significant shifts in monetary policy are expected. 🇪🇺 Euro adoption debate: Political resistance to joining the eurozone continues, but economic realities are forcing a reevaluation. 📈 Investment perspectives: Hungary offers attractive real yields (~6.43% on 10-year bonds), making it a cautious opportunity for investors. As analysts debate whether the forint is oversold, the broader question of Hungary’s economic future looms large. Will the nation embrace reforms, or will persistent currency weakness drive further instability? 🔗 Read more about the USD/HUF dynamics and the economic crossroads Hungary faces on our website. https://lnkd.in/dXyiVRb4 🚀 Stay ahead of the market with our 14-day free trial of premium insights ➡️ https://lnkd.in/dYY8sjdf 💬 Join our free Telegram group for real-time updates** ➡️ https://lnkd.in/d243TCtz #USDHUF #ForexTrading #CurrencyMarkets #HungarianForint #EurozoneDebate #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicStrategy #InvestmentOpportunities #SignalMasterMind #GlobalEconomics #MarketInsights

West’s financial policy makes keeping reserves in their currencies risky — minister According to Siluanov, the dollar will still be able to maintain its popularity as a payment unit in the coming years, but BRICS nations are already expanding the use of national currencies MOSCOW, October 10/ The West’s financial instability makes the use of Western currencies to keep reserves very risky, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. "The policy of countries issuing the so-called reserve currencies, including the dollar, certainly, gives rise to many questions. Their budget deficits are growing and their national debt is increasing. In the United States, for example, it is already about 120% of GDP. All of this is done without any restrictions, and we and our G20 colleagues are asking ourselves: what are the prospects for these countries?" he said in an interview with RT Arabic. According to Siluanov, the dollar will still be able to maintain its popularity as a payment unit in the coming years, but BRICS nations are already expanding the use of national currencies and are looking at using digital finances. "The share of the dollar in settlements inside BRICS is shrinking, with the share of settlements in national currencies being on the rise. Our proposal is to use both new technologies and digital financial assets. I think this is quite promising. How soon this will be implemented is a matter of our agreements, our actions," he added. #business #finance #financialservices

🌍 Exploring EU Candidate Countries and Their Currency Journeys As EU candidate countries strive to join the eurozone, they face significant currency transformations. Nations like Slovenia, Slovakia, and Estonia have successfully adopted the euro, replacing their national currencies after meeting strict convergence criteria. These criteria include maintaining stable prices, sound public finances, and stable exchange rates. However, some countries delay euro adoption to retain monetary policy flexibility amid economic uncertainties. The journey to euro adoption reflects both economic integration ambitions and the challenges of relinquishing national currency control. Avice Europe https://avice.org #Avice #euronews #europe #euro #currency

💣💣💣British Prime Minister's Office: the country is bankrupt On July 28, local time, British Prime Minister David Starmer's office issued a statement saying that the results of the review will show that the UK is "bankrupt and broken" and blamed the previous government for the situation. According to reports, British Prime Minister Starmer's office conducted a comprehensive assessment after three weeks in power, and was "shocked" by the situation facing the Conservative Party after 14 years in power, while releasing an analysis of the previous government's "failing departments". #BritishPrimeMinister #Bankrupt #Broken 🤝🤝🤝Malaysia Applies for BRICS Membership The Prime Minister's Office said in a statement on July 28 that Malaysia has written to the Russian BRICS chairmanship to apply for membership of the BRICS cooperation mechanism. Anwar said his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov focused on Malaysia's application to join BRICS, which "is of great significance to both countries and underscores our commitment to fostering strong international cooperation". #Malaysia #BRICS #Russian #InternationalCooperation 🤞🤞🤞Ethiopia's central bank: local currency allowed to trade freely The National Bank of Ethiopia will henceforth allow banks to buy and sell foreign currencies at freely negotiated exchange rates, according to a directive posted on the bank's website. The central bank will "support the market with limited interventions only in the early stages of the market, if disorderly market conditions warrant reasonable interventions." #Ethiopia #LocalCurrency #TradeFreely #CentralBank #ExchangeRate

SCO countries increase use of national currencies in mutual settlements — Putin The Russian leader recalled Russia's proposal to create its own payment and settlement mechanism within the SCO and noted that regular meetings of the economic bloc's ministers, meetings of the heads of finance ministries and central banks significantly contribute to the development of trade and investment relations within the SCO space ASTANA, July 4/ States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are increasing the use of national currencies in mutual settlements - their share in Russia's trade transactions with members of the organization exceeded 92% in the first four months of 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin said. "Our countries are increasing the use of national currencies in mutual settlements. For example, their share in Russia's commercial transactions with members of the organization has already exceeded 92% in the first four months of this year," Putin said at a meeting of the Council of Heads of State - members of the association. He recalled Russia's proposal to create its own payment and settlement mechanism within the SCO and noted that regular meetings of the economic bloc's ministers, meetings of the heads of finance ministries and central banks significantly contribute to the development of trade and investment relations within the SCO space. #business #finance #financialservices

Putin calls West's policy to ban Russia from dollar settlements ‘stupid’ The head of state noted that in this situation, Russia and its friendly countries are switching to national currencies in their mutual settlements VLADIVOSTOK, September 5/ The West already understands that it made a mistake, and its stupid steps are only pushing countries to abandon the dollar, Russian President Vladimir Putin said speaking at the plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum. "The financial and political authorities of the United States are pushing this process with their not just sloppy, but unprofessional and stupid actions. I think they already understand that they made a mistake, but they simply cannot get out of this rut. It is probably rather embarrassing for them to admit that they made a mistake. They should have already made some corrections, as they see that the tools they use do not work," Putin said. He noted that in this situation, Russia and its friendly countries are switching to national currencies in their mutual settlements. But the Western leaders are not ready to abandon their policies, he added. "Apparently, only those people who will replace today's generation of politicians can do this. Because changing something means admitting your mistakes. Apparently, this is difficult. And what is the reason for such behavior? Apparently, they were counting that everything would collapse in our country. That is why they banned us from dollar service. But the trends are not obvious. They only push, as I have already said, these processes, but the trends in the use of currency are connected with the growth of the [Russian] economy," Putin said. The Eastern Economic Forum is underway on the campus of the Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok on September 3-6, 2024. The main theme of the EEF this year is ‘Far East 2030. Combining strengths to create new potential’. The Roscongress Foundation is the Forum’s organizer. TASS is the general information partner of the EEF. #business #finance #financialservices

#india #europeanunion #globalcurrency #internationaltrade #Euro as a #Currency was first announced/introduced on 1st January 1999 with huge celebrations outside this #EuroTower European Central Bank (Headquarter till 2015). Interestingly it was used as an #Invisible #Currency for the first 3 years (for #accounting purposes & #electronicpayments only). On 1 January 2002, Euro in physical form #Paper #Notes #Metal #Coins were launched. Thats when history's biggest #cash #changeover (in 12 EU countries) took place. Background: After 10 Years of Negotiations, the #EuropeanCommission (EC) signed "Maastricht Treaty" (Treaty on European Union)" in 1992 in #Netherlands with the decision to formalize the #EconomicAndMonetaryUnion (EMU) in 3 stages to ensure seamless #crossborder #trade between member countries. This was the result of the #DelorsReport " prepared by then EC members under the then President of EC #JacquesDelors. 1. EMU became functional on 1 July 1990. From this date (in principle), all restrictions on the movement of capital between Member States were abolished. 2. The European Monetary Institute (EMI) was established on 1 January 1994. The Committee of Governors ceased to exist thereafter. 3. On 1 January 1999, Euro as a Currency was introduced with huge celebrations outside the Euro Tower (Then ECB Headquarter). EMU fixed (irrevocably) the exchange rates of the currencies of the 11 initial Member States with the ECB having the responsibility to announce a single Monetary Policy. #Belgium #Denmark #France #Germany #Greece #Ireland #Italy #Luxembourg #Netherlands #Portugal #Spain #UnitedKingdom #globalisation #universaltrade #worldeconomies #worldleaders #engineering #vucaworld #geopolitical #politics #economy #monetorypolicy #bilateraltrade Germany Trade & Invest IHK Frankfurt am Main Messe Frankfurt GmbH Stadt Frankfurt am Main Frankfurt am Main: Wirtschaft, Recht und Reformen