Jonathan T L.’s Post

LISTEN UP: If you truly fear escalation, then listen to those of us who know Russia best and know Putin personally and well (30+ years in my case). Memorize this: STOPPING RUSSIA IN UKRAINE WILL **NOT** LEAD TO NUCLEAR WAR. PERIOD. FAILURE TO STOP RUSSIA IN UKRAINE **WILL DEFINITELY** LEAD TO NUCLEAR ☢️ WAR IN A FEW YEARS. Clear? Why? Because that’s how Russian leaders will behave AFTER they inevitably attack the Baltics 🇪🇪 🇱🇻 🇱🇹 and Poland 🇵🇱 in 3-4 years after rebuilding Russian forces. They’ll attack those #NATO states. NATO is much stronger and will after counterattacks push RUS back. THAT IS WHEN RUSSIA IS MOST DANGEROUS. They **WILL** then use nuclear weapons ☢️ For we who have made lifelong, academic and personal (living there; knowing the military and political leaders) studies of Russia, this is clear as day. CLEAR AS DAY. I’ve recently read posts by colleagues in supporting Ukraine that have quite wrongly said “Russia will never use #nuclearweapons over escalation in Ukraine,” they say, “They’d be wiped out”, including friends Marcus and Horsfeld. This is NOT correct—or at best, only partly true. While Russia will NOT use nukes over Ukraine in the present contest (I.e. BEFORE they are able to defeat Ukraine 🇺🇦 on its own territory)… THEY ABSOLUTELY **WILL** USE NUKES DURING PHASE 2 of their malign, revanchist, imperial expansion plan, which is later on—vs. the Baltics and Poland. 100% Welcome to the world of #kremlinology #understandingrussia #understandingputin The key here is understood by this simple baseball analogy: NEVER LET RUSSIA GET PAST 1st BASE ⚾️ If you do, you’ll have hell to pay at 2nd 🔥 It is INACCURATE to say Russians resist #nuclearwar under any circumstances. That’s wrong. That’s a #western mode of thought. Russia and its leaders aren’t like us (unsurprising, eh?). They’re only afraid of that before 1st base. The stakes are too low. Every top-drawer Russianist knows this. Try not to forget it. #standwithukraine 🇺🇦 "As always when it comes to stopping dictators, with every delay the price goes up. Western leaders have protested over the potential costs of action in Ukraine at every turn only to be faced with the well-established historical fact that the real costs of inaction are always even higher." "The best reason for acting to stop Putin today is brutally simple: it will only get harder tomorrow." Source: "Winter is Coming" by Garry Kasparov (2015) - page 248 Others who know: Snyder, Kallas, Rutte, Stoltenberg, Rasmussen, Petraeus, Duda, Pavel, Moore, Burns, Applebaum, McGlynn and many more.

NATO will inevitably be directly engaged in the fight against Russia. The sooner that happens, the sooner Russia can be pushed back within its borders. The "as long as it takes" US strategy for Ukraine is a terrible strategy that prolongs the war. The strategy should be "as much as it takes" to defeat Russia quickly. Russia's nuclear saber-rattling is just that. Russia will not use nuclear weapons as it will mean the end of the Putin regime. Putin is a narcissist and will not trade his life for this invasion. One of the less discussed issues at stake in Ukraine concerns Poland. Russia sees Poland as its rival for influence in the Slavic world. Poland, Moldova, and the Baltics are on Putin's "acquisition list." If Russia is not defeated in Ukraine, war between Poland and Russia is inevitable. Poland cannot let Ukraine fall. Not only would Poland be next on Russia's hit list, but it would also provide Russia with all of Ukraine's resources, making Poland's defense that much harder. Thus, there is a scenario in which Poland precipitates NATO engagement with Russia. The NATO nations are meeting in DC right now. They will accomplish little because they are not thinking strategically. Defeating Russia in Ukraine today is the right strategic move. #poland #russia #ukraine Ministry of National Defence (Republic Of Poland) Institute for the Study of War The Fletcher School at Tufts University

Ukraine now being allowed to strike inside Russia will absolutely not start WWIII. Waiting this long to allow Ukraine to do this has only prolonged the war The world cannot allow Russia to get away with threats and red lines that are nothing but a bluff The world also cannot allow Russia to get away with nuclear blackmail… Putin is not going to nuke Ukraine. Nuclear powers have lost wars before and Russia is no exception. Go study the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan If you really want to prevent WWIII, give Ukraine what it needs to win and stop Putin now. Ukraine losing today means Moldvova, the Baltics, and perhaps Poland fall tomorrow as Russia marches on Europe. It also means China knows the world won’t be willing to defend Taiwan or the South China Sea and will take over both That is how WWIII starts. How it’s prevented is Ukraine winning now and Russia under Putin losing this war once and for all Stop being afraid of what the world will look like if Russia loses. What is far more terrifying is what the world will look like if Putin gets what he wants

THE SOVIET INVASION OF UKRAINE – TODAY’S “READERS WRITES’ ( Samples from a British national Newspaper) Putin has forged the Ukraine in to a nation by blood and iron. The Ukraine's Great Patriotic War!!! Putin would be scary it he wasn’t such a coward. His cowardice was first shown by… 1. Spending Covid in extreme isolation; then using a 20 Foot Long Covid Table (to which he shamelessly invited Macron & others). 2. And he has NEVER ONCE visited his Frontline troops (unlike both Hitler and Churchill) 3. He even let Yevgeny Prigozhin get completely out of control 4. He recently killed Alexei Navalny ( most dictators kill their opposition) but this was inside, literally Russia’s most remote prison!!! 5. He has never supplied sufficient numbers of soldiers for his war effort (for fear of causing rebellion) 6. He has made so many nuclear threats, so many times, that it’s becoming comical to the West, and embarrassing for Russia. Yet he doesn’t even have enough self awareness to stop. Overall: Although Putin has caused the disastrous war in Ukraine we are nonetheless very lucky: It is being waged by someone who will never (ever) have the nerve to go nuclear. One thing is for sure - the sooner the vile reptilian Putin is dead, the better. For Russians as much as for the rest of the world I'm pretty sure it's Trump that Putin wants in the White House... he has no interest in helping any European nation. Putin is such an arrogant midget. He's too proud to admit defeat... Hell go on sinking Russia for years until somebody shoots him Zircon and Kinzhal are not hypersonic missiles in the modern sense of terminal phase manoeuvrability and usable sensors/comms, they are bog standard, dumb, ballistic missiles with a hypersonic terminal phase. Russia is no longer even in the race to develop 'smart' hypersonic weapons, a situation not helped by Putin jailing various prominent physicists. The simple fact is that bright people are deserting Russia and weapons engineers are bright people. Why would a highly skilled engineer stay in the Russian kleptocracy that rewards simpleton thugs more than highly educated professionals? Russian weaponry is last generation junk. The Su57 has a radar signature 1000x greater than an F35. Storm Shadows target specific windows whilst Russian munitions target districts. The S300 and S400 air defence systems are now routinely destroyed by Ukraine and spoofed by Israel, much to the consternation of Iran. The Su75 that was supposed to be funded by foreign investment is now a dead programme and Russia did not manage one single sale of significance at the Dubai arms fair. I expect someone will nail the vile little Kremlin rat eventually. P.S. - I don’t suppose for a second that Putin ever reads or listens to the opinions of ‘ordinary people’ the sneeringly named ‘proletariat’, especially those in Russia who are merely 'raw materielle"

The Guardian published the letter of intellectuals claiming that bringing Ukraine 🇺🇦 to NATO close is a threat. It has almost coincided with the brutal missile attack on the children’s hospitals in Kyiv. 📶“The challenges Russia poses can be managed without bringing Ukraine into Nato” . My main question is HOW? And why distinguished intellectuals do not explain it? 📶 “Moving Ukraine toward membership in the alliance could make the problem worse, turning Ukraine into the site of a prolonged showdown between the world’s two leading nuclear powers and playing into Vladimir Putin’s narrative that he is fighting the west in Ukraine rather than the people of Ukraine. “ Well, Putin has always claimed to be fighting the West. So, how is this thought new? 🧳 “The purpose of Nato is not to signal esteem for other countries; it is to defend Nato territory and strengthen the security of Nato members. Admitting Ukraine would reduce the security of the United States and Nato allies, at considerable risk to all.” Interesting thought… Fear is definitely a strong motive for them. and rf is using it as a bargaining tool.

In December 1994 the Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the USA and UK were signatories to the Budapest Memorandum guaranteeing the sovereignty of Ukraine in return for Ukraine giving up its huge stockpile of nuclear weapons – the world’s third largest - following independence from the Soviet Union. Clearly, this wasn't worth the paper it was written on. Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine was a direct violation of the Memorandum. And reading it again, nowhere can I see an opt-out allowing the US and UK can lose interest in their obligations to ensure there is no ‘use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine’ after two years of war. The Ukrainians have every reason to feel betrayed. America has made some foreign policy mistakes over the decades like any great power but is now behaving like a heavyweight boxer who has taken too many knocks and has lost his confidence. The US could once be relied upon to be the standard bearer of world order and freedom but this is no longer the case. The refusal to give Ukraine the extra money it needs to defend itself against a brutal and unprovoked attack is proof enough of this. In the year that commemorates 80 years since D-Day, it should be noted that unless the West with US leadership steps up to the plate, the world will change and not for the better.

Pdt Putin, today, knows it (attached) ,,, Russia never understood and never addressed the 21th century challenges .. Russia, obsessed by "territory" Ukraine, missed  .. all "New World" economic, demographic (https://lnkd.in/eijYE2QP) military, strategic ( https://lnkd.in/epcYHqMs) , ecological .. challenges Today Russia .. is down fighting for Pokrovsk,  .. gave-up Syria in 24 hours,  called N-Korea for defending .. ist own Kursk territories; .. and modifies yearly its .. nuclear doctrine to ... hide the reality .. !!   .. 4 points ..  a) .. the tough consequence for .. Russia is not to have failed to take Ukraine … but to have exposed to the whole word … the reality of the ..  «Russia Potemkine village» Even the nuclear arsenal is .. an "unknown" for .. Russia itself ( https://lnkd.in/eW8U7sgq) b) .. the 2025 .. issue for the world …  is that probably  .. Pdt Putin strongly believes that .. he could personally ..  « squeeze » Pdt Trump in a face-to-face Pdt Putin only .. exit and legacy .. « do as well as Stalin at Yalta »  c) .. China, for sure did well ... but too early to say .. for tomorrow, still, at its borders, taking mostly .. non military .. risks ( https://lnkd.in/eEMRUw7c) d) NATO is strong because of combined NATO-UE and NATO-Indo-Pacific (https://lnkd.in/eC2nUycD) and ... the "decadent West" ... did quite smart and collective ... no reasons to stop .. .. as you could not "split trust" .. ( https://lnkd.in/ecs3HP8w) Newsweek The New York Times The Washington Post Stéphane LAUER Jean-Paul Paloméros Ben Hodges Stéphane Séjournéé Jon Finer Michael Waltz Lisa Yasko Vladimir Norov Evika Silina Keith Kellogg Hanno Pevkur

The Ukraine tragedy Many predicted Nato expansion would lead to war. Those warnings were ignored History will show that Washington’s treatment of Russia in the decades following the demise of the Soviet Union was a policy blunder of epic proportions. It was entirely predictable that Nato expansion would ultimately lead to a tragic, perhaps violent, breach of relations with Moscow. Perceptive analysts warned of the likely consequences, but those warnings went unheeded. We are now paying the price for the US foreign policy establishment’s myopia and arrogance. The EU is now at war with Russia ! Attacking Russia the country with more nuclear weapons than any other countries and thinking that no supersonic missiles will hit Europe ? 🤔 No country with nuclear weapons has ever been attacked…. Xi is so far holding Putin back from using nuclear weapons but how long? https://lnkd.in/es25XiGi

Le Monde [excerpt]: Obviously, it would have been easier to kill two birds with one stone: From Beijing, where he was in mid-May, Vladimir #Putin could have flown directly to Pyongyang, less than a two-hour flight from the Chinese capital. The Russian president ultimately decided to wait a month and will visit #NorthKorea on Tuesday, June 18, and Wednesday, June 19, after which he will fly to Vietnam. #China has certainly felt more comfortable with this separation of activities that avoids the appearance of a triangle of collusion among three of the West's enemies. In fact, Beijing has been having mixed feelings about the rapprochement between Russia and North Korea brought about by the invasion of #Ukraine. Double-edged development The Russian president and the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, have come together out of mutual interest. The former needed supplies of North Korean artillery shells to continue waging his war; the latter was, by providing them, thereby able to lessen his isolation and obtain food aid to help stabilize the economic situation in his country following difficult years caused by the Covid-19 pandemic − in addition, perhaps, to acquiring specific know-how in the fields of ballistics and satellite technology. Another benefit to the North Korean dictator has been the diversification of his alliances at a time when the Democratic People's Republic of Korea − with its preoccupation with autonomy reflected in the doctrine of independence and self-sufficiency known as "Juche" − has long been worried about being too dependent on China. This has been a double-edged sword for Beijing. It has eased the pressure of having to provide #international cover for turbulent North Korea, and the burden of having to deliver enough goods and food to ensure its survival. China has considered it incumbent upon its interests to maintain the buffer zone that North Korea offers, as the large US bases in South Korea are only 400 kilometers from its territory. But for China, this has come at the cost of having to play the role of North Korea's international protector, in spite of all its bluster and its nuclear tests and missile launches. By following solely its own guidance, without undertaking the kinds of reforms − or, at least, not at the pace suggested by Beijing − that enabled China to grow, the North Korean regime has been a source of endless aggravation to its large neighbor. #news #geopolitics