Jonathan T L.’s Post

Is NATO Ready for Putin’s Tit-for-Tat? By Leon Aron AEIdeas August 14, 2024 “The enemy, undoubtedly, will receive an appropriate response!” said Vladimir Putin in his first extensive public assessment of the Ukrainian troops’ incursion into Russia. And the “enemy,” he clarified, is not only—and indeed not so much—Ukraine as the “West which is waging a war on us with the hands of the Ukrainians.” In addition to increased bombardment of Ukraine and intensified attacks on Ukrainian positions in the Donetsk region, could the “response” include a tit-for-tat attack on a vulnerable NATO country on the alliance’s eastern flank, most likely Estonia or Latvia? The possibility of such an invasion is not a novel hypothesis. To extricate Russia from the morass of an unwinnable war, Putin could well engineer a direct confrontation with NATO, bring Russia and the US to the brink of a nuclear war, and force the West to negotiate an “overall settlement” the centerpiece of which would be “peace” in Ukraine on Russian terms.     Of course, in advertising his repost, Putin may be bluffing, again. But the Ukrainian operation inside Russia has added an important and urgent dimension to Putin’s war with the West. The past nine days have been a personal insult to the Kremlin’s master. After all, as he told his compatriots on the eve of the invasion of Ukraine, in addition to “de-Nazifying” Ukraine, the key objective of the “special military operation” was to prevent NATO from invading Russia. (There is likely a memory of another failure weighing on Putin: the sinking 24 years ago this past Monday of the Kursk submarine, bearing the name of the capital city of the region assaulted by the Ukrainian troops.)   

The paramount goal is Ukrainian victory. While the Biden administration provided massive assistance to Ukraine and coordinated the Western response to the invasion, this effort has lacked a clear strategy for a full Ukrainian victory, possibly due to fear of much-threatened Russian nuclear escalation or in the hope that Russia may play a balancing role vis-à-vis a truculent China. This policy myopia is misplaced. An all-of-government strategy that brings on board Western allies and friendly nonaligned states, utilizing Russian vulnerabilities and playing up Western strengths, is likely to be effective in forcing Russia to sue for peace and liberate Ukrainian territory. This outcome requires strong, preferably bipartisan, US leadership and clear vision, commitment, and resources, not the ad-lib, helter-skelter war management that the United States has often practiced since 2022. https://lnkd.in/gdUw4m3F

The dark truth behind NATO's "fear of Russian escalation" is a narrative woven with contradictions and hidden weaknesses. Like any great story, it unfolds in acts, Hans Petter Midttun writes. 1️⃣ The Puppet Master Russia controls the escalation, turning peace into conflict at will. NATO, once the director of European security, now finds itself reacting to Moscow's script. 2️⃣ The House of Mirrors In a twist, we discover Russia fears uncontrolled escalation as much as the West. Its threats are revealed as illusions, never acted upon when its "red lines" are crossed. 3️⃣ The Unheeded Prophets Enter the chorus of Eastern European leaders, their warnings born from harsh experience. They see unchecked Russian aggression as the true danger, not the specter of "escalation" that haunts NATO's corridors. 4️⃣ The Emperor's New Threats The final reveal comes from US intelligence itself. CIA Director Burns pulls back the curtain on Russia's nuclear posturing: "We cannot afford to be intimidated by that saber-rattling." Key takeaways: To gain initiative and end the war, the West must escalate to de-escalate. No war has ever been won by refusing to confront the aggressor. The expressed fear of escalation may be masking NATO's own moral and physical shortcomings. This policy of restraint increases the risk of strategic miscalculations and leaves Europe vulnerable to further Russian aggression. Read more: https://lnkd.in/d6NGyZAZ

Putin smoking HOPIUM!!! Russian President Vladimir Putin articulated a theory of victory in Ukraine on June 7 that assumes that Russian forces will be able to continue gradual creeping advances indefinitely, prevent Ukraine from conducting successful operationally significant counteroffensive operations, and win a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces. Putin's theory of victory rests on Russia's ability to outlast and overcome pledged Western security assistance to Ukraine and Ukrainian efforts to mobilize more of its economy and population for the war effort, indicating that Putin likely assesses that Russian forces will be able to leverage their advantages in manpower and materiel to overwhelm on Ukrainian forces. Putin's theory of victory hinges on a critical assumption that the West will abandon Ukraine to Russian victory, either on its own accord or in response to Russian efforts to persuade the West to do so, and it is far from clear that the West will do so. Putin indirectly indicated that Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with Western-provided weapons do not cross a supposed Russian "red line" that would result in Russian nuclear escalation. Putin heavily focused on proposals to solve Russia's labor shortage issues during his speech at SPIEF on June 7. Putin attempted to frame Russia's economic issues in a positive light, likely to prepare Russian citizens to make more personal sacrifices as Russia sustains a protracted war in Ukraine at the expense of Russian citizens’ standards of living. https://lnkd.in/g4wfYAwV

Interesting analysis and predictions that were recently produced by Chinese expert, Feng Yujun: ruzzia will eventually have to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea despite its nuclear arsenal, rus military might is not a guarantee of victory, as history has shown with US experiences in Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan ceasefire akin to the Korean scenario is improbable, given Ukraine's demonstrated ability to resist rus aggression Ukraine stands to gain post-war by potentially joining the EU and NATO, while ruzzia faces losing former USSR republics due to perceived threats to their sovereignty. #ukraine #russiaterroriststate #standwithukraine

IS THIS FAIR? ABSOLUTELY NOT. IS IT PRAGMATICALLY REALISTIC AND SENSIBLE? YES INDEED. AND TRUMPOLINI, GAWD HELP US, MIGHT BE THE MEGALOMANIAC WHO CAN GET THE DEAL DONE. He no doubt understands Putin, since they both are gigantic egos waddling around on two human legs. He might be persuasive, since he's even nuttier than Putin... meaning Putin may think Trumpo would do what Putin only threatens to do. Ukraine gets to survive. (It's unlikely Putin would break the peace any time in the foreseeable future. Imagine if Chamberlain had enabled Czechoslovakia to go a few rounds with Hitler, before stepping in and brokering the peace.) We get to not blow each other up. It's not so well known, amidst all the legends surrounding the Cuban Missile Crisis, that Kennedy secretly agreed to remove US missiles from Turkey in return for the much-more-public about-face made by the Kremlin. Trumpolini might get some extra advantages (secret or public) from his pal Vladdy in a reversal of the Cuban concessions. Whatever... anyway here's the latest from Reuters this morning: "Vladimir Putin is open to discussing a Ukraine ceasefire deal with Donald Trump but rules out making any major territorial concessions and insists Kyiv abandon ambitions to join NATO, five sources with knowledge of Kremlin thinking told Reuters." Let's hope the Ukies don't wing a made-in-the-USA missile through the Kremlin's rooftop before these discussions can happen. https://lnkd.in/eSpux7ci

Russian forces are reportedly leaving the Sahel because of Kursk. I wrote this exactly two weeks ago. Let's take another read. "Does Kursk communicate anything in Africa? 1. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, many thought that the latter did not stand a chance of effectively defending itself against what was largely seen as the second most powerful military. 2. Admittedly, not even Ukraine's allies had much confidence in its defensive capabilities in the early stages of the war. The decision to effectively arm Ukraine was a difficult one. It became much easier when the country made an impressive defence of its territory in the early stages. 3. In Africa, the confidence that Russia was going to take Ukraine within days and make "minced" meat of its political leaders was high. I had several debates with people who were so convinced of the invincibility of the Russian military. 4. I argued that possessing nuclear armament establishes significant deterrence, but Russia's conventional capabilities at the tactical, operational and strategic levels were what would make the difference in Ukraine. 5. Regardless, I never thought there was going to be a serious "Russian theatre" to this conflict—until Kursk. 6. And, so what? 7. Since the invasion of Russia's Kursk Oblast, the pro-Russian commentators I know in Africa have been relatively silent. At "best", they say the invasion of Kursk will be inconsequential in the long term. Others are yet to be heard from. I see these on the different social media platforms. 8. However, with Russia having a significant presence in Africa in recent years, what it is experiencing in Kursk will have ramifications in the continent. 9. How? 10. Ukraine’s audacious invasion has significantly battered the myth of Russian invincibility that could affect Moscow's proxy recruitment efforts in Africa. As I wrote a few weeks ago, Russia has used agents across Africa to recruit African fighters. Ukraine’s Kursk operation will not be a good “advertisement” for such recruitment. 11. Also, this dimension of the war could pose some dangers for Wagner forces in Africa. With what appears to be impotent Russian defences in the face of an unrelenting push by Ukraine, forces fighting Wagner in Africa could be psychologically emboldened. Already, rebels and extremists in the Sahel have hit Wagner days before the Kursk operation. 12. Also, Russia’s vulnerabilities could soften the stance of regimes in Africa who rely on it for “protection”. This is likely for Sahel states which have been in a protracted schism with the rest of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). 13. Other aspects of Russian engagement in the continent could also be affected by the current dynamics of the war. 14. While these are not cast in stone, your inability to defend your borders will make any “rational actor” doubt how you will be able to help them defend theirs." #geopolitics #security #africa

Dear Fidel Amakye Owusu many thanks for sharing. Totally agree that the Kursk invasion could weaken Russian influence in Africa, especially for groups like Wagner and the projection of force they spear. We have insisted for months that African states that rely on Russian military support - alike Central Asia, the Middle East and South American countries - might question its effectiveness if Russia appears unable to secure its own borders - now with people resistance forces. This could be particularly true for governments in conflict zones like the Sahel, where Russian (and specifically Wagner's) involvement is crucial - let´s don´t forget that Russia has been also recruiting in Africa for the invasion in Ukraine. The Ukrainian forces' strategic pressure on Crimea, coupled with their near-unopposed penetration into Kursk, has forced the Kremlin into a precarious balancing act, hardly maintaining an exhausting and offensive pressure on Donbass. This dual-front challenge exposes the Russian military and strategic vulnerabilities, signaling a progessive unraveling of its regional power. Follow Us on Linkedln for Updates. WEBSITE: https://lnkd.in/dGbpXSaz #UkraineConflict #CrimeaCrisis #KremlinChallenges #DonbassWar #GeopoliticalAnalysis #StrategicPressure #MilitaryVulnerabilities #RegionalPowerShift #RussianFederation #DefenseStrategy #GlobalSecurity #EasternEurope #ConflictResolution #InternationalRelations #UkraineVsRussia #StrategicMilitary #PoliticalStability #EasternEuropeanPolitics #WarInUkraine #RussianInfluence Doug Livermore Bill Dorotinsky Marijn Markus Yuriy Jexenev 🇪🇺🇪🇪🇰🇿 Viktoriia Gosudarska Alexandra Samootin Seven ShuryginJan Kock Pete Becker UK Ministry of Defence Radu Hossu Mykola Siutkin

🎤 Zelensky and Putin are directly challenging each other in Kursk. In a world of strong-willed war leaders, this signals that the conflict must now be resolved by force and likely in Kursk For the past week, russian authorities have downplayed #Ukraine's incursion in Kursk. Russian media referred to it as the work of "sabotage groups" emphasizing humanitarian support and evacuation efforts. There was no mention of the scale. 💡 Yesterday, Zelensky and his Commander in Chief Syrsky publicly declared that #Ukraine now controls and occupies around 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory, directly challenging the Russian narrative of control in Kursk. At the same time, Putin convened a meeting with his top officials, directing the Ministry of Defense— that is, the army, and not the FSB, which had previously been tasked with handling the issue—to "push the enemy out of Russia and secure the borders." 📺 Both #leaders of the warring states made public claims on #TV broadcast both domestically and internationally, about who controls and should control Kursk. Now, if Putin fails to push Ukraine out, it will result in a direct, widely known embarrassment. To uphold his through fear and (false) nuclear threats, Putin can't afford to look like a clown 🤡 The next several days to weeks will be critical and could significantly impact the balance of power in the war between Russia and Ukraine. The Kursk incursion seems to be a serious #strategy move by Zelensky, with far-reaching implications. ☝️ Remember: the legitimacy of imperial states rests upon a projection of power - losing to an 'inferior' people usually results in their collapse. Which means Ukraine doesn't need to win the war now - but Russia does. #Leadership #Intelligence #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦