Why is Turkey still in NATO?

Many European countries did not take our alarming signals regarding the russian hybrid war seriously, which it started simultaneously with the conventional war in Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014. Having honed their influence tools on the Ukrainian population, russians are now successfully applying them in Europe and achieving colossal successes. It's a pity that such actions by the russians will go unpunished and will not even be recognized as acts of aggression, but only condemned by European politicians. Thus, russians are starting a war, but this will only be recognized after an attack on one of the EU countries. https://lnkd.in/dFg6YRki

Attempting to answer following question posed by the most recent CATS Network Perspectives: Sweden joined NATO as its 32nd member in March 2024. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stretches into the third year. The war in Gaza and Iran’s attack on Israel highlight the risks of escalation in the Middle East. As a NATO member, how does Turkey navigate these different security challenges? Does the evolving security landscape give Turkey geopolitical leverage and, if yes, how does Ankara use it? Can Turkey serve as a mediator in any of these military conflicts? Dimitrios Triantaphyllou, Panteion University, Athens From the perspective of Athens, there are elements of both continuity and change in Turkish foreign policy. The continuity is determined by geography – Turley’s perception of a flank state status – and the need to seek relevance and influence by projecting its ability to shape or co-shape the policy responses to the many regional challenges that surround it. The change is defined by an upgrading, however subtle, of its territorial claims vis-à-vis Greece and a growing ideologically motivated foreign policy, and by its efforts to move beyond the regional and onto the global stage. More specifically, while Athens and Ankara seem committed to pursuing their recent attempt at creating confidence-building mechanisms that are resilient to whatever future crisis, there is a concern in Greece that Turkey’s activism – be it its ambivalence regarding the war in Ukraine or its confrontational position regarding the war in Gaza – is a cause for alarm. While the assessment is that Turkey might be seeking greater leverage, it does so in a manner that is confrontational rather than constructive, thereby undermining the international order. This, in turn, is an anathema for a small country like Greece that is simultaneously attempting to meet the challenges of the times, both by focusing on becoming a regional security provider and ensuring that the institutional, legal and normative edifice holding the international order together transitions in an orderly fashion to meet the evolution of the security landscape. https://lnkd.in/dWyFzmxk

Now past its 1,000th day, Russia’s war on Ukraine seems set to continue. Yet new dynamics are in play and the international community needs to consider how to stabilise a potential future peace deal. As a complement to other vectors of support to Ukraine, Peter Jones explores the role that the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) can play in post-war stabilisation.

🇷🇺  Russia’s Shadow War on NATO » : 10 pages summarizing the 🇺🇸 Helsinki Commission’s hearing in Sept 2024. A useful document encapsulating the conclusions of the U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe. Read the latest report: « Spotlight on the Shadow War: Inside Russia’s Attacks on NATO Territory. » 🔹During the Helsinki Commission’s hearing, experts testified to the widespread and calculated efforts Moscow deploys to destabilize its democratic adversaries across the Atlantic. 🔹This document is a proposal from Helsinki Commission staff to visualize the breadth of the Kremlin’s efforts : 🕹️ nearly 150 hybrid operations executed in NATO territory occurring since the outset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that have been attributed to or suspected of Russia. 🤿4 categories for the hybrid operations: critical infrastructure attacks, violence campaigns, weaponized migration, and election interference and information campaigns. 🔹Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, its calculated campaigns of sabotage and active measures have intensified across North America and Europe. 🔹From cyberattacks on critical infrastructure to weaponized migration and disinformation campaigns, these calculated efforts aim to destabilize NATO, undermine transatlantic unity, and deter support for Ukraine. 🔹These operations, ranging from election interference to terrorism plots, illustrate how Russia’s shadow war has become an systematic threat to #NATO and democratic governance. 👏🏼 Sophia M., for the research 👉🏼Read the report here: https://lnkd.in/geJZ4tKW

🔍 Hybrid Threats: Why Do We Need a Societal Response? The recent US Helsinki Commission report identifies over 150 Russian hybrid operations on NATO territory, highlighting the complex and multidimensional nature of these threats. This fact suggests that NATO states, especially European ones, should consider a decentralized, complementary approach to informational defense. I assert this because, at least until now, no successes in this field have been observed from the responsible institutions (or the systems that include them). In short, the exclusive reliance on institutional response proves insufficient. Why a decentralized approach? • Hybrid threats target the entire society, not just institutions • Official response is often limited by bureaucratic/legal constraints • Speed of reaction is crucial in countering these threats • Authentic experts are not always within official structures The complementary solution: Networks of specialized NGOs • Flexible coordination at European/National level • Integration of real experts from various fields (retired experts, academics) • Rapid reaction capability • Independence from political pressures • Access to diversified funding Experience in security and information operations shows that an effective response to hybrid threats requires a "whole-of-society" approach. Specialized NGOs can become catalysts for this approach, building bridges between authentic experts, civil society, and governmental institutions. #HybridWarfare #NationalSecurity #InformationDefense #Cybersecurity #HybridThreats #EuropeanDefense #StrategicCommunication #InformationOperations #GlobalSecurity #SecurityAnalysis #CyberDefense #DefenseStrategy #InternationalSecurity #RussianDisinformation #CriticalInfrastructure #SecurityPolicy #DefenseInnovation #SecurityStudies #HybridThreats #Resilience #CivilSociety #EuropeanSecurity #NATO #ProfessionalStandards #Leadership #CriticalThinking #StrategicCommunication #SecurityStudies #CognitiveScience #Disinformation #Education

Russia opposes Ukraine's NATO membership because it would hinder its aggression, not because it threatens its security. Extending NATO security guarantees would help protect Ukraine, not provoke Russia further. Appeasing Russia’s demands has only emboldened its aggression and alliances with anti-western powers. It’s time for NATO to take a stand. Inviting Ukraine to join would reinforce international law and human rights, safeguard Ukraine, and reassert NATO’s role as an effective political agent on the world stage. #StandWithUkraine

An attack against one is an attack against them all This is probably one of the most well-known lines related to foreign policy and geopolitics worldwide. It refers to Article 5 in NATO’s founding treaty. It is the backbone of an international pact that collectively is one of the most powerful deterrents in the world. Unfortunately, what is required to do if a member country is attacked is also misunderstood. The biggest myth is that a response to an attack on a country must be military. This is incorrect as nowhere in the article does it require a military response, it only requires some kind of response. It is written in a simple and unclear fashion. Article 5's ambiguity was intended to appease the United States, which did not want to be bound by a military response requirement. Article 5 must be invoked so in the past couple of decades while some countries were engaged in military conflicts that could have allowed Article 5 to be used it wasn't. Even if Article 5 was invoked, the US, for example, would still need to rely on domestic law to be able to use military force. So Congress must either declare war or the president must use Article 2. Even if an armed attack takes place, NATO allies must collectively consider it to meet the definition of an armed attack. As an armed attack is never defined, members have a loophole to avoid invoking Article 5. As is evident above there are several loopholes involving any response including a military one for Article 5. However, it is important to remember how vital this article is to geopolitical stability, especially with the possibility of having Ukraine become a NATO member which could allow a permanent armistice. For further reading, I recommend these two articles.  https://lnkd.in/g6ZeTj6c  https://lnkd.in/gPphXa3J Article 5 remains the backbone of international security without it or withdrawing from NATO would be the greatest disaster of the 21st century.

In modern times, more #reporters will emerge to shed light on the wars we endure but often fail to see clearly. Imagine a US Congress Report🇺🇸 uncovering the hidden conflicts and #ShadowWars waged by #Mexicancartels🇲🇽💀 across #North and #SouthAmerica 🌎—the violence, alliances, and clandestine networks that shape entire regions, often overlooked or misunderstood, despite their profound impact on societies and governance. Similarly, the #USHelsinkiCommission’s 🇺🇸🇫🇮September 2024 hearing highlighted #Russia’s🇷🇺 systematic #hybrid #operations against #NATO member states, as detailed in the report “Spotlight on the #ShadowWar: Inside #Russia’s Attacks on #NATO Territory.” Since Russia’s invasion of #Ukraine🇺🇦, nearly 150 hybrid operations—including #critical #infrastructure #attacks, #violence #campaigns, #weaponized #migration, and #election #interference—have been attributed to or suspected of #Russian🇷🇺 involvement. These calculated campaigns of #cyberattacks, #sabotage, and #disinformation aim to destabilize #NATO, undermine democratic governance, and weaken support for #Ukraine, posing a systematic threat across #,#Europe and #NorthAmerica. Both examples reveal the importance of investigative efforts to illuminate these #shadowwars and their far-reaching consequences. 👉🏼Read the report here: https://lnkd.in/geJZ4tKW

This is a key report for understanding the nature of the "acute" threat that Russia presents. In medicine, an acute symptom is one that should be dealt with now. The Russian threat is real, active, and must be addressed. The Kremlin continues to be a destabilizing influence on the established world order and a failure to act on these hybrid activities has a lasting impact on Western reputation for resolve and the credibility of nations' contributoins to the #NATO alliance. Deterrence forces and sanctions are part of the response, but I agree with a comment below that recommended tying our specific support to Ukraine (and increases in volume or capability) to each shadow attack.