Chris Cheek is well-known as one of the deep thinkers of the UK bus and rail industry, and one of the few people who takes time to look at the data, and calmly consider the implications. His new book “Britain’s Buses in a New Era The Opportunities and Threats Ahead” is an excellent compendium of recent trends, but also a recap of some of the alarming policy missteps of the last 20 years - not least some fairly brutal cuts to BSOG, tendered services budgets and concessionary fares, that have been followed by government shock at the subsequent cuts in bus provision. This has occurred at a time when rail subsidy budgets seem to have lost all touch with reality, despite the extraordinary post-Covid loss of rail demand.
Several things struck me: one is the gulf between what might be termed “dinner party received opinion” and economic facts: the fall in bus company profits set out here, should put an end to any thought that “cross subsidy” is an easy solution to industry woes, or funding. Similarly, (as I have written elsewhere) the “London” model is proving that even with favourable demographics, you can lose a lot of passengers if buses travel at snail’s pace. But civic leaders too often advocate a “London-style” model, despite dissimilar economies, and seemingly unaware of the current trends (falling patronage, rising costs, rising subsidies).
Secondly, the gap between good intentions, and bad policy outcomes: the alarming fall in bus patronage in Wales set out here (substantially as a result of the Welsh Government’s own actions) is a good example of “talking left and governing right”- delivering the exact opposite to the laudable objectives set.
Thirdly, the general failure to “copy what works”: Chris himself has authored multiple reports on bus industry best practice, yet progress on the ground is patchy. If more places simply copied the policies of the known success stories, some of these negative trends could be turned round. Instead there has been a widespread failure to invest in measures to deliver competitive and reliable journey times for bus passengers, and widespread overinvestment in “nice to haves” such as Starchitect-designed bus stations, and (dare one say it) low emission buses that - whilst laudable in themselves - will have a de-minimis effect on bus industry economics.
This book sets out the facts and the challenges. The new government is in the process of empowering local authorities (and local bus companies) to create a more positive pathway. But as Chris shows, changing the regulation will be the easy bit - what is needed are plausible plans to address the needs of passengers.
Once again, Chris has done a lot of the analytic heavy-lifting by bringing together huge amounts of data in a logical and comprehensible form, so this book is essential reading for anyone accountable for delivering the government’s desired renaissance of the UK bus sector . #ChrisCheek
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9moWhen govt enterprises designed for public benefit focus on linear profits & the govt does not have a mechanism to calculate profits beyond enterprise level - it basically means those in government do not know how to govern.