Eric ROQUE’s Post

Hon. Jean Michel Nintcheu has been accused of fomenting trouble within the opposition in Cameroon by insisting that Kamto must be the leader of a coalition. Many argue that such a leader must be elected by the different opposition leaders and not imposed https://ow.ly/AUV950QylEP #Politics #Cameroon #Elections #DemocraticProcess #CoalitionBuilding #PoliticalCoalition

French Legislative Elections: Ending the Policies of the Worst. In its latest editorial, Le Monde analyzes the results of the legislative elections on July 7, where the expected progress of the far-right National Rally (RN) was halted, despite their significant gains. The RN's strategy of "normalization" collapsed, exposing incompetent candidates and extremist ideologies. The "republican front" managed to limit the damage, but the RN remains an important force. Macron's dissolution of the Assembly weakened his majority, and the left-wing New Popular Front emerges as an alternative, though far from an absolute majority. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, representing La France insoumise (LFI), remains a strong voice, but the dynamic has changed, with socialists and other progressives gaining importance. This new assembly offers the opportunity to establish a more peaceful and resolute policy, addressing the real concerns of voters without yielding to the far right.

Georgia's future has been uncertain since Georgian Dream's autocratic turn. Civil society, opposition parties, and independent media are facing an increasingly repressive environment. Yet, there's a surge of mobilization and determination as the country heads into tomorrow’s parliamentary elections. These elections will undoubtedly shape Georgia’s democratic and foreign policy trajectory for the future. They could also influence regional dynamics - affecting Russia's influence and the EU's role in the region. I explore these issues in my latest piece for The Conversation France.

🟦 BETTING ON INSTABILITY? 🟥 On the evening and the day after the first round of the legislative elections, the "Nouveau Front Populaire" (NFP) cannot envisage an absolute majority and a fortiori the "Ensemble" movement, the figurehead of an ex-"majority", whether alone or with others. In the absence of a clear majority, the latter movement would find itself in the National Assembly in a new configuration of relative majority, but in a clearly diminished position and subject to the left, including the most extreme. Consequently, to declare that the main objective is to prevent the "Rassemblement National"(RN) from obtaining an absolute majority of seats at all costs (NB: is this also the position of "Horizons" or the Parti "Les Républicains" ?) is, in practice, to bet on the instability of the country. The objective of blocking the Rassemblement National at all costs - failing a cohabitation with the latter, however conflictual - could end up forcing the President of the Republic to resign and call an early presidential election. This is what Marine Le Pen had indicated in recent days, while making it clear that she was not formally calling for this, but that it could prove to be the only political outcome. In the immediate term, her party might find it advantageous, in the run-up to the second round of legislative elections and beyond, to develop the argument of the risk of instability with voters. Leaving aside a priori a possible resignation, would the only realistic ultimate objective of a clearly diminished President of the Republic be a negative one (unless one imagines that the left could still be beneficial to the country and truly believes in the concept of a "Republican Front")? Would volatility and instability be preferable to cohabitation? Would destruction be creative, as some economists think? Or is it more a question, in the end, of doing harm above all else in the name of saving face? ► 🔴L’Essentiel de l’Éco🔴 (01/07/2024

📢 📢 📢 I have been interviewed by La Presse about the results of the first round of #Romania's presidential #elections. In this pivotal moment for Romanian democracy, we see the rise of a far-right independent candidate leading the race—a development that raises critical questions about the future of politics in the region 🌎, but also about technologies that disrupt the electoral processes 👨💻. You can read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/gjvmNP9d

Feminist movements in France are mobilising in resistance to the increase of support the far right received in the last European elections and in view of the upcoming French legislative elections.

"Emmanuel Macron will push for the traditional majority, EPP, S&D and Renew. It is still justified by the figures we see in our forecasts," says Francesco Sismondini from the Euronews Polls Centre. Ultra-conservatives are trying to avoid this outcome by reestablishing good relations with each other, as seen in Madrid's far-right Vox conference last week. "Leaders of both ECR and far right groups like Giorgia Meloni and Marine Le Pen can try to find common ground," explains Sismondini. "And in order to reach it they must take some difficult decisions, like breaking with the AfD for Marine Le Pen and becoming moderate on issues such as migration, social questions and supporting Ukraine." But the playing field is still wide open. It's not only a matter of voting figures - politics still needs to have its say, says. Sismondini: "As soon as the negotiations start after the elections, we will see that the political groups at the EU parliament are not that attached [to each other]".

Four days that will shake France and, just maybe, beyond. French President Emmanuel Macron's reckless decision to dissolve Parliament, calling for snap elections in three weeks time, came one hour after the polls closed last Sunday in the election of members of the European Parliament, elections which, in France, the extreme right dominated with a historic, jaw-dropping 37%. In response, leaders of France's four main parties on the left came together Sunday evening and, despite their differences, stayed together for four days until they could announce, Thursday, a new alliance forged in record time: the New Popular Front (an explicit reference to the heroic if short-lived Front Populaire of 1936 formed to head off fascism). To understand this feat it is important to note that the new phoenix-like coalition arises from the ashes of a recent all-left alliance formed between the two rounds of the 2022 presidential elections, NUPES, in response to the decline and near death of the Socialist Party due to years of timorous, centrist immobilism that left most of its traditional constituencies feeling abandoned. This previous coalition (put together in 13 days) was relatively successful, forming the largest opposition caucus in the National Assembly, but frustrations with Macron's imperial presidency led to domestic quarrels and some of the parties decided to go alone into the fray of the European parliamentary elections. Quarrelsomeness turned to vitriol and pot-shots under the pressures of the unstoppable rise of the extreme right, fueled largely by gains made on rank-and-file territory that used to be hallowed ground for the left when it still looked like the left. No one wins a blame-game, but to their credit the parties on the French left took a clear-eyed look at the results Sunday night, their vision sharpened by the very real prospect of a neo-fascist government in France in three weeks time, and did the right thing. Coming soon, an inaugural post on my substack page, adding more detail to these exciting times in France. In the meantime, here's a post commenting on a couple of aspects of this historic event https://lnkd.in/erdAWj6u (in French, but machine translation seems to render a recognizable version in English.)

In this FRANCE 24 article by Sébastian Seibt, I discuss the upcoming general elections in India, the plight of the opposition, and what a BJP victory could mean for the union.

The EU future is challenged in the #EU neighborhood following the crucial elections in #Moldova and #Georgia. #Moldova barely gathered necessary votes in the referendum held a few weeks ago to ensure EU integration is embedded in its Constitution. The role of Moldovan #diaspora was crucial in securing country's future in the EU but also exposed the divisions within Moldovan society as to the perception of the country's future and the role of Russian propaganda in shaping those views. In #Georgia, last week Parliamentary elections resulted in the victory of the ruling party Georgian Dream which has been taking an authoritarian drift and a course on deepening ties with #Moscow. It victory has been contested both by the opposition and the population, people taking the streets in Tbilisi. The implications of the Georgian Dream detaining the absolute majority in the Parliament carry high risks for the country's EU #future and its #democratic development. Both elections, i.e., in Moldova and in Georgia, have been marked by Russian interference through propaganda, voter intimidation, vote buying and blunt falsification of the results (see #OSCE and #ENEMO reports) amid a highly polarized climate within the two societies. I talk about the outcomes of Moldova's and Georgia's elections and their impact on the European future for the two EU candidate countries in my podcast at euradio: ➡ Listen to the podcast on Moldova: https://lnkd.in/epRMSE2D ➡ Listen to the podcast on Georgia: https://lnkd.in/evm-__us 💡 You can subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.