David Auerbach’s Post

Top 10 takeaways from ULI Vegas: 1. Optimism continues to grow for #commercialrealestate professionals, yet short-term caution remains. Over the past four months, we have witnessed increased loan applications and transaction activity. Future #Fed interest rate cuts are anticipated to accelerate these trends. 2. Given opposing forces, the pace of #CRE recovery is generally expected to be moderate. Positive trends like lower interest rates and increased tenant demand will contend with negative trends like a "wall" of loan maturities that must be worked out and higher operating expenses. 3. Speaking of the "wall" of loan maturities, the NY Fed published a report warning of a potential systemic risk of lenders "extending and pretending" loans. One veteran banker I spoke with feels this is overblown. He thinks a 200 bps reduction in interest rate coupled with increased rental rates will prevent a massive amount of distressed selling in the coming years. Distressed property sales should be contained. 4. Institutional #investors are starting to return to the market, yet many are restricted due to a tepid sales market coupled with reduced distributions. Firms have turned to high-net-worth individuals and family offices for equity. Interest in digital investment platforms as a source of equity has grown. 5. Buyers are sharp-shooters, taking a building-by-building approach to property acquisition rather than a blanket approach to entire asset classes or cities. 6. Everyone is thinking about how to leverage #AI tools. Innovative firms are testing new AI tools to automate tasks that are better suited for AI than humans. The lesson for individuals is to learn AI skills and implement the technology or risk being disrupted. 7. The Southeast dominates ULI's Emerging Trends list of the top markets to invest in. The top five markets are Dallas, Miami, Houston, Tampa, and Nashville. Business-friendly policies coupled with strong population and job growth drove the rankings. Contrarian investors may find less competition and better values elsewhere. 8. Despite record high completions in 2024 and oversupply problems in some cities, #multifamily continues to experience strong demand driven mainly by favorable demographics and limited single-family home supply. The need for more market-rate and #affordablehousing remains due to the cost burdens on many renters. 9. After two years of declines, #industrial leasing and #investment activity have increased, driven mainly by nearshoring and onshoring trends. Manufacturers are moving their operations closer to home. 10. Climate risk is making insurance more expensive and harder to obtain. In response, real estate firms are incorporating #climaterisk into their decision-making and risk assessments. Ian Formigle, John Imbriglia, Shaun Mulreed, Rodes Ponzer, Brendan Sparrough, and CrowdStreet are proud supporters of Urban Land Institute, and we look forward to seeing everyone again in Denver in May '25.

PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute just published their 2025 Emerging Trends in Real Estate for both US & Canada. The entire report is a worthwhile read, but the Markets to Watch section puts Dallas Fort-Worth as the number 1 city in the nation for real estate investments. The Dallas Morning News also picked it up and highlights DFW's growth. Coupled with a massive influx of new residents and a concentrated mix of Fortune 500 companies, it isn't a surprise that 2025 will be a great year for real estate development and investments here! Our team at SLX Capital is excited to be a part of this growth, especially in the North Texas markets! https://lnkd.in/g8XWxS4B https://lnkd.in/g_PWFTvC

You may have seen the reports on various popular media sites of an ease in red-hot rent rises in England and Wales. For Northern Ireland, our forthcoming issue of the Ulster University Rental Performance Index report for H1 2024 observes a similar trend. Consistent with our forecast in the previous edition, improved conditions in the mortgage environment, reduced inflation and market equilibrium pricing adjustments have begun to filtrate into the rental sector in terms of inventory and average rents. The survey observes some evidence of improved inventory flow across some rental locations and with this a stabilisation in average rents - suggesting signs that the sector will plateau in some areas and that growth in average rents will ease off and perhaps cool as we progress through the rest of the year. Whilst this may indicate some respite for renters, there remains a delicate balance of factors in the sector relating to supply which could significantly impact on pricing structure. Overall, rents remain elevated, with growth in average rents over the year to a peak in areas where market vibrancy and supply constraints continue to present challenges for the sector and particularly rental affordability. The key headlines relating to the rental market in H1 2024 are: - Average rents across Northern Ireland increased by 4.4% over the half year to £886 per month; appreciably up by 8.5% compared to the same period last year - The average monthly rent across the Belfast City Council Area (BCCA) increased by 7.4% to £1,019, up 10.4% in annual terms. - Outside of Belfast, the average aggregated LGD rent was up by 1.7% over the half year period to £797 per month, and up by 7.5% over the year. - The Rental Performance Index stands at 169.6 at Q2 2024, up by 14.5 percentage points from the same period last year. #UlsterUniversity #Rents #Rental Sector #Northern Ireland

Do you know the leading indicators of a property market boom? Our very own Dr Kev summarises in this very informative article…

Doctor Kev's Weekly Update: The signs of a new boom Property prices increase on average over the long term by 7%-9%. Despite this, the pace of growth during a boom phase is many times higher than during plateau periods. A common mistake that many investors make is entering the market at the peak of a boom, when the level of competition is high, this is usually followed by a price plateau or slow-growth period. At inSynergy, we have invested significantly to develop an advanced data and analytics system that analyses and detects markets that are about to boom. This approach has been used to help our clients invest in the right markets at the right time - maximising their returns and cashflow. We have identified the leading indicators of a new boom as follows: 1. High Rental Yield As investors, positive cash flow and a strong income stream each month is the goal. There is a vast difference in rental yield between cities, and this could mean the difference between your property portfolio growing or not. For the same $1m house, investors in Sydney could earn $30,000 per year, while investors in Adelaide could make $45,000 - $50,000 per year, resulting in tens of thousands of dollars more in pocket. High rental yield generally attracts more investors that will drive up property prices. 2. Low Vacancy Rate The vacancy rate is calculated as the percentage of rental properties available for rent among all rentals. Generally, a vacancy rate of 3% is considered balanced between landlords and tenants; 3% is an oversupplied market. When the vacancy rate reaches below 1%, it is an indication that rents and property prices will increase. 3. Affordable Segments Borrowers cannot obtain the same value of loans as a few years ago. Therefore, by targeting properties at affordable prices that more buyers can afford, it increases the chance of future price growth. The rule of thumb would be to target medium-priced properties or those priced 20% above or below the median price in a region or city. 4. Other Location and Demographic Factors Besides the above factors, it is important to assess the economic fundamentals, such as economic diversity, proximity to employment, main occupations and population growth. #inSynergy #inSynergyAdvisory #Economics #Data #Housing #Investor #Property #PropertyInvestor

Doctor Kev's Weekly Update: Timing the market The long-term trajectory of property prices in Australia shows a consistent upward trend. In the short term, the pace of growth fluctuates, commonly known as a "property cycle". This cycle comprises four distinct phases that describe the movement of property prices and market activity: 1. Boom: this phase is characterised by increasing property values, strong buyer demand, and an active market. Factors such as population growth drove up demand during 2021-2023, significantly overtaking available supply. As a result, investors and builders are motivated to enter the market or initiate new housing projects. 2. Downturn: this phase marks a slowdown in the market, with property values stabilising or experiencing slight decreases. This deceleration may result from new housing developments outpacing population growth, or it could be influenced by other factors such as reduced borrowing capacities. 3. Bottom: this represents the lowest point of the cycle, where property values and market activity reach their lowest. With fewer buyers in the market, property prices may remain stagnant, decline, or only experience minimal growth. 4. Recovery: during this phase, the market begins to rebound as increased investor and buyer interest capitalises on the market's low. This renewed demand amplifies market activity, eventually leading to another boom phase. On average, property cycles typically last between 7-10 years. However, there is no one property cycle in Australia. Each state, city, and suburb most likely undergo unique phases influenced by local factors. While the media may report the national property market as one market, data reveals otherwise. For example, in the period between 2002-2009, there was a vast difference in growth rates between capital cities: Darwin – up 145%, Perth - up 103%, Adelaide - up 101%, and Sydney - up 31%. On $1m property, investors in Adelaide could pocket $700,000 more than Sydney during 2002-2009. Do you want to find out which markets are in their growth phase now? Reach out at [email protected] | 1300 425 595. Invest in your future today! 📞🏡 #inSynergy #inSynergyAdvisory #Economics #Data #Housing #Investor #Property #PropertyInvestor

🏡 TOP 3 REASONS TO BUY PROPERTY IN HUNGARY FOR 2025 ⭐ 🏢 We’re here to continue the real estate news coverage we started last month. For the run-up to 2025, we've put together the 3 most compelling reasons why acquiring property in Hungary in 2025 is worthwhile. 1️⃣ Thriving Real Estate Market 🤔 Considering European real estate investments? Hungary's property market has experienced remarkable growth over the past decade. According to data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH), by 2023: 🔹New apartment prices surged by 310% compared to 2015. 🔹Secondhand apartment prices increased by 259% in the same period. 2️⃣ Competitive Pricing 📈 Despite significant price growth, Budapest remains one of Europe’s most affordable capital cities for property investment. In 2023, the Hungarian Central Statistical Office reported: 🔹New apartments in Budapest averaged EUR 178,600. 🔹Second-hand apartments averaged EUR 119,500. 📉 Additionally, a 2021 Eurostat report highlighted Hungary as having some of the lowest housing price levels in the EU which still applies to date. 3️⃣ Low Cost of Living 🪙 Beyond property affordability, Budapest boasts a lower cost of living compared to other European capitals. Expenses for housing, transportation, education, healthcare, entertainment, and groceries are notably budget-friendly. 🇭🇺 ➕1️⃣ Residency Opportunities Hungary offers a guest investor residence permit, or "golden visa," allowing third-country nationals to reside in the country for investment purposes. One pathway to eligibility includes acquiring residential property in Hungary valued at a minimum of EUR 500 000 – a step recognized as contributing to the national economy. 🧑🏻💼 Navigate Hungarian Real Estate with Ease Real estate regulations differ across borders. For a more comprehensive guide to investing in Hungarian property, talk to our team to find the conditions and the exact solution that best fits your expectations!

Latest market comment from Tom Bill on the current market - and potential further upwards pressure on rents. Post your thoughts on the current market

We appear to be experiencing a turn in the rental cycle. Between August 2020 and June 2024, the national median rent jumped 39.0%, according to CoreLogic. By way of comparison, in the same period of time before the pandemic, the national median rent rose by just 5.4%. Now, we may be about to enter another period of slow rental growth, after the national median rent rose just 0.4% in the three months to August 2024. “Affordability is likely to be a key factor constraining further rental growth,” CoreLogic says, given that, between the start of the pandemic and June 2024, rents increased almost three times faster than average wages. CoreLogic says another factor is an ongoing slowdown in the number of foreign students, which is providing a “direct and immediate” flow-through to rental demand. Nevertheless, while rental growth is slowing, there is still a shortage of rental accommodation in most parts of the country, which means property investors are still finding it relatively easy to secure tenants. #property #homeloans #propertymarket ------------------------ At Finance Industries Australia, we treat our clients like family. Contact Finance Industries Australia if you’re thinking about buying an investment property. Give us a call on 1300 648 175 or email [email protected].

If you needed more evidence on Hamilton’s upward trajectory, here it is: Hamilton City will eventually be home to more people than Wellington City, likely in the next 24-34 years, according to Statistics New Zealand and the University of Waikato. So, in 2048, Hamilton City could well be home to 240,600 people, against Wellington City’s 237,300.   Our location, economic investment and high migration levels are all contributing to Hamilton being the place to be, and this will of course affect our housing supply.   There’s no denying Hamilton needs more houses. New Zealand needs more houses.    However property investors face a unique situation when they choose to invest in Hamilton. Right now, our rental economy doesn’t reflect the slight downturn happening nationally. Where demand is reducing in other main centres, and the median rent is down 1.6% since August, it’s a different story in Hamilton where median rent is down just 0.9%, and demand has never been higher.   As we head into Christmas, the residential property market continues to show signs of picking up. The median house price is trending upwards, and the flow of properties to market is steady. Investors are still well-placed to capitalise on this, especially considering rental yield in Hamilton is relatively favourable compared to other regions.   I don’t think we’ll have to wait much longer before investors around New Zealand get the message that Hamilton is getting ahead and they want a piece of the action.