Ciro Messina’s Post

#KYIV — #Ukrainians reacted with a mix of trepidation and grim resolve to the news that Donald Trump will likely be reelected United States president, after he vowed to “stop wars” in a victorious speech Wednesday morning. After almost three years of war, officials in Kyiv acknowledged that Ukraine would now likely have to look to its allies elsewhere in the West for support as it seeks to fend off a renewed Russian offensive backed by thousands of North Korean troops. Trump has repeatedly claimed he would end the war in Ukraine in one day and vowed to stop aid to #Kyiv. The U.S. is #Ukraine’s top backer when it comes to funding. In a pragmatic statement on social media Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recalled his “great meeting” with Trump in September and praised the Republican’s “commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs.” But in a telling line, he added: “We rely on continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States.” Despite the Ukrainian government’s repeated insistence over the course of the U.S. election campaign that it has bipartisan support in #Washington, it was clear the prospects of a Trump victory weighed heavily on Kyiv. Trump’s Republican Party blocked aid to Ukraine for more than nine months from October 2023 to April 2024, forcing Kyiv to deplete its wartime budget and leading to the loss of some of its most capable fighters. The mood in Kyiv on Wednesday was grim but resolved. Tymofiy Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics, said in a Facebook post: “We’ll have to live in Trump’s world now. I am very skeptical that the war will end in 24 hours, as he promised. But we definitely won’t get bored.” Trump’s unpredictability has left Ukrainians uncertain about what to expect from his second presidency. The Republican has repeatedly claimed to have a good relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and derided #Zelenskyy as “the greatest salesman in history.” But he has also claimed that he’d told Putin the U.S. would bomb Moscow if he tried to attack Ukraine. Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the foreign relations committee in the Ukrainian parliament, took a relatively optimistic view, saying a Trump presidency required a change of approach from Kyiv. “I do not think that his presidency will be bad for Ukraine — maybe difficult, challenging, but not necessarily bad,” Merezhko told POLITICO. “Trump is a pragmatic businessman” who “thinks in terms of costs and benefits,” he added, meaning Ukraine will need to work hard to convince him to continue backing Kyiv.

MY UKRAINIAN CHRONICLE - WAR YEAR 3 7.-8.11.2024 Over the last days the most discussed topic in Ukraine concerning Russia’s war has been, as everywhere in Europe, the outcome of the U.S. elections. A variety of statements by prominent and not so prominent officials and experts reportedly close to Donald Trump are quoted and discussed in the full understanding that the fate of the country and of the people now freely discussing different scenarios is at stake. Nobody knows how the announced “peace in 24 hours” could work. While the Kremlin has not commented on any scenarios being pushed in U.S. media, Russia’s propaganda machine has already declared that none of them are acceptable. They refer to previous Putin statements. Given that Putin continues to make statements about pharaonic Ukrainian losses (he claimed this week at the Valdai forum that currently 15,000 Ukrainian troops are de facto encircled, pure fantasy) and clearly thinks that Russia will advance faster and further given the uncertainties around international support to Ukraine, they may well guess Putin’s mood rightly. In any case, the mood in Moscow is easy to see: >> The Russian stock market posted sizable gains on the news of Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. RBC <<   Many Ukrainians refer to Ronald Reagan for the preferred policy they hope to see from the U.S.: >> An approach of "peace through strength" is needed urgently as Europe confronts the danger posed by Russia, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy told leaders at the EPC summit. (Reuters/Newsmax Media) - Zelenskyy also said that North Korea was effectively "waging war" in Europe, amid reports Pyongyang has deployed troops to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine. (AFP/Reuters) << It would be truly dramatic if the response to the escalation strategy of the Russia-North Korea-Iran “pariah alliance”, supported more or less openly by China, would be an appeasement policy to some or all of them, provoking further escalation sooner or later. In the case of Russia, there is a clear name for this: Minsk-3.   On the ground, Russia’ top brass continues the year-long ground offensive with top intensity – and record losses. The British Minister of Defence put the number of daily casualties among Russian troops in October at 1354, a new record. Russian troops continue to advance slowly in Donetsk region, clearly aiming to destroy and occupy the regional logistics hub, and home to Ukraine’s biggest mine of coking coal, Pokrovsk in the coming weeks. In Russia’s Kursk region Russian units, reportedly supported by North Korean troops, have started another massive offensive to de-occupy the border region controlled by Ukrainian troops. Intense combat is reported, but the outcome is not clear.   Ukrainian drone attacks against Russia’s war machine continue. On Thursday night a major oil refinery was struck. Videos show a big fire. On Friday night a military factory was hit... Full news summary attached

Data suggests that in the last years of the Soviet Union, only 3% of officials in top government positions were representatives of special services. During Yeltsin's rule, the figure was over 30% and has risen to 70-80% today. Putin's regime has become a dictatorship of the security services, which will try to ensure the sustainability of this model of government for as long as possible. But that will only be the case until the rising clan of young siloviki sees the 72-year-old president as a weak link in the chain of power. https://lnkd.in/eAjKStjN

Ukraine’s Zelenskyy reaffirms trust in PM Narendra Modi to help ‘end war’: ’He has huge value’ The Times of India reported that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has huge value and power to influence the end of the Ukraine war. He said PM Modi could check Russian aggression by refusing cheap energy and, hence, decreasing the “capacity of Moscow to wage wars.” “PM Modi can influence the end of the Ukraine war. This is the huge value of him in any conflict. This is the huge value of India,” TOI quoted the Ukrainian President as saying. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia can be held in India. In an interview with the news daily, Zelenskyy said that the negotiations that need to be done must be "according to our format because the war is in our land" and for this, the country needs to prepare itself ahead of the second Global Peace Summit in November. Notably, Ukraine hosted its first peace summit in Switzerland, in which representatives of 92 countries participated, excluding Russia. The uncertainty surrounding the November 5 US elections, which will majorly influence the conflict as Republican candidate Donald Trump's victory would imply a loss of powerhouse support for Ukraine, is also a concern for Zelenskyy, apart from Russia's recent advances in the Donbas region of Ukraine. Apprehensive of a huge setback due to the possibility of a supply cut in military aid, Zelenskyy said, “The Victory Plan is not a bargaining chip or a topic of negotiations with Russia… We are not asking for quick Nato membership because that is not possible during the war." As he suggested that Ukraine has a platform for negotiations in the “third hard winter for Ukraine” which is the peace summit, he said, "What we are asking for is an invitation to NATO so that in the future nobody can change their opinion,” reported TOI. The developments come at a time when Ukraine is faced with restrictions in using American-supplied long-range weapons to strike Russian military targets in Vladimir Putin's Russia. Source: https://lnkd.in/gVQhkyf6 #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineConflict #EndTheWar #PeaceNegotiations #Tradesala

Putin Will Not Talk Nonsense with Scholtz On Peace: Smartly, he will not pick up the phone if Scholtz calls. No matter how much the German foreign minister pushes a false narrative about her boss being that interested in a practical peace on Ukraine, they both are not. Annalena Baerbock has to be one of the most incompetent foreign ministers the West has. Scholtz put her there because of coalition politics and to keep her out of the country as much as possible so not to get involved so much in domestic politics. His worry is that Washington prefers her as head of Germany given her over-the-top support of Washington neo-liberals and also their push on identity politics Better the much more competent defence minister in articulating Germany's position even if one does not agree with him. He should talk with his counterpart in Russia to reduce tensions where it counts such as German troops being pulled back from being near Russia's borders and firm commitment not to provide long range missiles to Ukraine with Russia willing to discuss a ceasefire if Germany commits to refusing NATO membership for Ukraine. But some kind of security pack for Ukraine that the Kremlin can live with that does not threaten Russia. That would be a good lead to a followup call from Scholtz worth Putin picking up the phone. That is better than Germany's foreign minister looking for cheap political points trying to convince the German electorate that she is really all for peace including the chancellor. It would be good to know that she is not in the pocket of Washington like her boss to aggravate and try to wear down Russia. And in the process undermining Germany's economy currently with the risk it will be destroyed if war breaks out further over Washington-led NATO expansionism. But the problem remains. Germany must agree not to provoke Russia much more by pushing the idea of providing long range missiles and being too lock in step with what Washington wants as opposed to what her country and Europe need with time appearing to be rapidly running out for peace not only for Ukraine - but evermore the possibility for Germany, and the wider continent.

Anniversary The summit participants will mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of the alliance. However, the celebration will be overshadowed by two events. Firstly, this is the unsuccessful performance of US President Democrat Joe Biden at a televised debate with the ex-president and his main political opponent, Republican Donald Trump. Even among his most loyal supporters, it raised doubts about the ability of the current US President to lead the United States and NATO. As Politico noted, alliance allies doubt Biden's prospects for re-election, so the American president will have to show leadership qualities and prove his competence at the summit. Secondly, this is the recent visit of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to Russia, which the EU and NATO perceived as undermining the alliance’s overall efforts to military support Ukraine. No guarantees of ‘irreversible membership’ of Kiev On May 31, speaking at a press conference in Prague following an informal meeting of the heads of foreign affairs of the alliance countries, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that at the summit in Washington they "will be taking concrete steps to bring Ukraine closer to NATO and ensure that there's a bridge to membership." His assistant for European and Eurasian affairs, James O'Brien, later argued that the West views Ukraine's path to NATO as irreversible. However, on the eve of the summit a high-ranking representative of the US administration did not confirm that the final declaration would include the thesis about the irreversibility of Kiev’s accession to the alliance. However, the official stressed that the communique is expected to contain "very strong signals of allies' support for Ukraine on the path to Atlantic integration, and will also underscore the importance of Ukraine working on democratic, economic and defense reforms." (Part Two, Continued in Part Three in the next post) #business #finance #financialservices

"Union of Russia and Ukraine - Why it Could Be Advantageous" In recent times, discussions about the possible union of Russia and Ukraine into one large state have been gaining momentum. While this idea provokes controversy, there are reasons and arguments suggesting potential benefits for both countries. One the main reasons for the union of Russia and Ukraine is the prospect of re-establishing a strong and unified political and economic bloc in Eastern Europe. Should Russia unite with Ukraine, they could form a powerful that would strengthen both countries and propel them forward. The union could be advantageous for both countries in terms of economic cooperation. Ukraine could gain access to Russian technology and investments, while Russia could benefit from Ukrainian resources and labor force. These synergistic connections could lead to economic growth and prosperity for both nations. It is worth noting that the union of Russia and Ukraine could contribute to the resolution of conflicts and tensions in the region, including the situation in eastern Ukraine. Joint efforts by both countries could lead to a peaceful resolution of these disputes and enhance stability in the area. Russia could assist in repairing and revitalizing Ukraine's infrastructure and economy, bringing new hope and opportunities for Ukrainian citizens. This collaboration could bring about modernization and development that could overcome past conflicts and struggles. The union of Russia and Ukraine could bring many benefits and potential gains to both countries. It is essential to carefully consider and explore the possible consequences of such a union and seek ways to establish a useful and mutually beneficial cooperation. #Russia #Ukraine #Union #StrongerTogether #EconomicPartnership #RegionalStability #UnityInDiversity #GeopoliticalAlliance #PeacefulCoexistence #ProsperityForAll #BilateralRelations #FutureCollaboration #EastEuropeUnity #HistoricUnion #SharedCulture #DiplomaticTies #MutualBenefits #EconomicGrowth #FriendshipGoals #BridgeAcrossBorders #HarmonyInDiversity #MutualRespect #CommunityNations #SharedDestiny #CulturalHeritage #PeacebuildingEfforts #EurasianIntegration

7 May 2024: Key takeaways from this evening's update on the Ukraine War from the great team at the Institute for the Study of War: - Russian President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term as Russian President on May 7 and stressed Russia's need for unchallenged autocratic rule while indirectly calling for victory in Ukraine. - Russian ultranationalists lauded the start of Putin's fifth term as a historic event and explicitly approved of the autocratic tradition in which Putin is casting himself, with one of them hailing him as "imperator," the formal title of the Russian tsars since the time of Peter the Great. Russian ultranationalists also expressed hope that Putin will continue to deepen an anti-Western ideology that the Kremlin has been heavily developing since the start of the full-scale invasion. - The current Russian cabinet of ministers and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin formally resigned on May 7 as constitutionally mandated, and the ministers who return to service and the ones whom Putin replaces will indicate who has Putin's favor and signal his political priorities for his fifth term - Belarus has announced a surprise nuclear readiness inspection likely as part of the Kremlin's re-intensified reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making. - Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reported on May 7 that it exposed a network of Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) operatives who were planning to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other high-ranking Ukrainian intelligence and military officials - The Russian Prosecutor General's Office declared US non-governmental organization (NGO) Freedom House an "undesirable organization" on May 7, likely as part of an ongoing effort to consolidate control over the domestic information space and further deprive Russians of access to civil society organizations and independent assessments of Russian civil and political rights. - Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. - Russian occupation officials continue efforts to forcibly recruit Ukrainian civilians into the Russian military in occupied Kherson Oblast. - The Kremlin is working with occupation administrators to strengthen Russia's control over the child welfare system in occupied Ukraine. #Ukrainewar #linkedintopvoices

8 May 17:10: ‘OVERNIGHT (7 May) MILITARY and GEOPOLITICAL DAILY VALUABLE REPORT: russia’s 👺🤡🤮 War on Ukraine 💙💛 and The West 🌎🌍🌏 from the Institute for the Study of War: In full - maps follow: ‘ - putrid 👺🥷🏻 began his fifth term as Russian ‘President’ on May 7 and stressed Russia's need for unchallenged autocratic rule while indirectly calling for victory in Ukraine. - Russian ultranationalists lauded the start of Putin's fifth term as a historic event and explicitly approved of the autocratic tradition in which Putin is casting himself, with one of them hailing him as "imperator," the formal title of the Russian tsars since the time of Peter the Great. Russian ultranationalists also expressed hope that putrid will continue to deepen an anti-Western ideology that the Kremlin has been heavily developing since the start of the full-scale invasion. - The current Russian cabinet of ministers and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin formally resigned on May 7 as constitutionally mandated, and the ministers who return to service and the ones whom putrid replaces will indicate who has putrud’s favour and signal his political priorities for his fifth term - Belarus has announced a surprise nuclear readiness inspection likely as part of the Kremlin's re-intensified reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making. Me: ‘More Putrid BS!’ - Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reported on May 7 that it exposed a network of Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) operatives who were planning to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other high-ranking Ukrainian intelligence and military officials - The Russian Prosecutor General's Office declared US non-governmental organisation (NGO) Freedom House an "undesirable organisation" on May 7, likely as part of an ongoing effort to consolidate control over the domestic information space and further deprive Russians of access to civil society organisations and independent assessments of Russian civil and political rights. - Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. - Russian occupation officials continue efforts to forcibly recruit Ukrainian civilians into the Russian military in occupied Kherson Oblast. - The Kremlin is working with occupation administrators to strengthen Russia's control over the child welfare system in occupied Ukraine. #Ukrainewar #linkedintopvoices’: Thank you, General and ISW Team:

Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Donald Trump on his U.S. election victory on Thursday, expressing Moscow's readiness for dialogue with the Republican president-elect. Putin acknowledged Trump's campaign remarks on seeking to restore relations with Russia and his approach to ending the Ukrainian conflict, calling the comments "deserving of attention." Putin emphasized that Trump’s willingness to engage diplomatically stood in contrast to the current U.S. administration's stance on Russia. Trump has repeatedly criticized U.S. support for Ukraine, claiming he could end the war with Russia in a matter of hours. Trump's victory remarks resonated with Putin, especially the suggestion of reopening dialogue with Moscow, which has been strained under the Biden administration. The Kremlin has long pushed for a shift in U.S. foreign policy toward greater cooperation on global security issues. While Trump’s potential policies on Russia remain unclear, his election has been viewed by many in Moscow as an opportunity to ease tensions. The Republican president-elect's stance on Ukraine, including reducing U.S. military support, will likely play a central role in shaping future U.S.-Russia relations. Reporting by Ollus Ndomu © AfricaWorld Reports Politics