Aaron Maini’s Post

Attached please find the Week in Pictures, with charts and commentary as follows:  1. Corporate Credit Spreads Grind Tighter 2. Short-Dated Rate Vol Collapses 3. Loose Financial Conditions 4. Large Cap Dominance Over Small Cap  5. Equity Volumes Hit One-Year Low 6. Non-Profitable Tech Still Lagging 7. Commercial Real Estate: Fundamentals vs. Valuations 8. Consumer Spending Steady (For Now) 9. China Transitioning Back to Export-Led Growth 10. Germany Lagging the Rest of Europe 11. Structural Issues Holding Back Germany  12. New CDX S42 CDS Financials Index

After April’s modest sell of the market, we are back to “risk on” : tightening credit spreads and low equity and rate volatility. The commodity market is the only area delivering large daily swings.

In building your portfolio, we are aiming for resilience. This means owning high-quality companies run by good management, companies that are undervalued, not just based on the economy and on the earnings power we see in the rearview mirror, but also going to be undervalued in an economy that is less kind or benign. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/e2KwkM-v

Growth opportunities exist far beyond mega-cap technology stocks in the ‘Magnificent Seven'. Here, Janus Henderson explores large cap tailwinds and a ‘peace dividend' in Europe, as well as economic reform in Japan. #InvestingInvolvesRisk

#novumcapitalpartners Looking at the chart of the DAX (+21% YTD), it does not seem like a stock index representative of the German economy. The performance, which more closely resembles that of the S&P 500 than the Euro Stoxx 50, is helped by the good shape of some heavyweights such as SAP and Siemens, and the greater weight of the tech sector compared to banking and other less-performing sectors. Rising expectations of peace in Ukraine are fueling inflows, as the end of the conflict will have a beneficial effect on gas prices and reconstruction, benefiting the German economy. Chart Source: Bloomberg Credits: Vittorio Treichler - Partner and Market Strategist at NOVUM CAPITAL PARTNERS SA #DAX #StockMarket #Investing #Finance #TechSector #MarketPerformance #Economy

Sensex falls 250 points, Nifty50 slips below 23,450 as Budget 2025 fails to impress markets. Another year, another budget, and yet again, the stock market delivers its real verdict - disappointment. Despite the grand claims and glossy projections, investors are clearly unimpressed. ▪️No structural reforms to address slowing growth and revive private investments. ▪️Fiscal deficit concerns loom large, with no clear roadmap for consolidation. ▪️Lack of concrete steps to address unemployment and boost job creation. ▪️No major incentives to attract FDI and strengthen India’s global competitiveness. ▪️Unrealistic growth projections, raising doubts about the credibility of economic planning. When markets react negatively immediately after the budget speech, it’s a clear sign that expectations were not met.

2024 𝐅𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐑𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐔𝐩 - 𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐭 3 𝐨𝐟 3 ~ 𝐈𝐬𝐫𝐚𝐞𝐥𝐢 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐲 𝐌𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 2024 ~ Did you know? Institutional investors’ AUM has grown to an impressive ~$730bn (2.7tn NIS, BOI Q3 ‘24), marking a 9% 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘦𝘯𝘥 𝘰𝘧 2023! It might not come as a surprise, but Israeli institutions 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬: 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐌𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐅𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐬 holdings rose to ~$11bn (+5% YoY). 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐬 holdings soared to ~$65bn (+12% YoY). We saw some interesting shifts this year, here are some high-level moves (First 3 Qs, 2024): 𝐎𝐮𝐭 𝐨𝐟: EUR & US High Yield India, Japan, Europe, and China Equity Asia High Yield 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐨: Global High Yield Global Equity US Equity 𝐓𝐨𝐩 𝐀𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐅𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐬: Private Debt Real Estate Private Equity (Buyouts & Secondaries) If there’s one thing I absolutely love about the industry - it’s never boring and so will 2025 be. 𝑾𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒊𝒏𝒗𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒔𝒉𝒊𝒇𝒕𝒔 𝒅𝒐 𝒚𝒐𝒖 𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒆𝒆 𝒏𝒆𝒙𝒕 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓?

How to restructure successfully in challenging times? The macroeconomic environment in Europe is weakening, with GDP growth stalling and major economies like Germany, France, and Italy underperforming. Companies are facing increasingly complex challenges, including geopolitical risks, rising costs, and the need to adopt new technologies and reduce CO2 emissions. Debt loads for non-financial corporations have surged, and interest rates are climbing at an unprecedented pace, complicating refinancing efforts. While some sectors like energy and automotive OEMs have thrived, others such as manufacturing, automotive suppliers, and chemicals are struggling. A successful restructuring in these challenging times requires a deep understanding of the business environment, a robust business model, and a focus on operational performance. Effective collaboration among CROs, financiers, consultants, and lawyers is essential to develop tailored strategies and financing solutions. Read our expert report that is based on our annual survey conducted earlier this year > https://owy.mn/3KWejT0 #Restructuring #BusinessStrategy #Transformation

27K Equity deals globally in 2024 — an 8-year low. Globally, deal activity fell 19% YoY to 26,961 in 2024 — its lowest annual level since 2016. The drop was most pronounced in countries like China (-33% YoY), Canada (-27%), and Germany (-23%). However, several countries in Asia — Japan, India, and South Korea — have bucked the downward trend. Their resilience suggests attractive investment conditions. (source: CB Insights)

👏 M&A Year in Review 💹 *The ECONOMY was buoyant, with numerous fluctuations in response to various macro-economic circumstances that governed the year. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East led to disruptions in oil supply, causing price spikes and affecting global trade. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to create instability in Eastern Europe, influencing energy markets and international relations. In the United States, the presidential elections held in November added another layer of uncertainty to the economic environment. The political campaigns and debates centered around economic policies, trade agreements, and regulatory changes, which had a direct impact on investor sentiment and market performance. * Despite the above, the M&A landscape remained active and dynamic throughout 2024. Companies across various industries sought strategic partnerships and acquisitions to strengthen their market positions and drive growth. Several high-profile M&A deals were completed this year, reflecting the ongoing consolidation trend in various sectors. * The PE & VC Private equity firms played a crucial role in the M&A landscape in 2024. PE firms were active in acquiring companies with growth potential and implementing strategic changes to enhance value. Notable PE deals included the acquisition of a leading retail chain and the buyout of a prominent logistics company. VC investments remained robust, with startups across various industries securing funding to fuel their growth. The tech sector continued to attract significant VC interest, particularly in areas such as artificial intelligence, fintech, and biotechnology. Several high-profile startups achieved unicorn status, further highlighting the vibrant VC ecosystem. As we look ahead to 2025, the M&A landscape is expected to remain dynamic and evolving. Several key trends are likely to shape the future of mergers and acquisitions: * Digital Transformation: Companies will continue to pursue M&A deals to enhance their digital capabilities and stay competitive in an increasingly digital world. * Sustainability and ESG: Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations will play a more prominent role in M&A decisions, with companies seeking to align their strategies with sustainability goals. * Cross-Border Transactions: Globalization will drive cross-border M&A activity, with companies seeking growth opportunities in new markets and regions. * Regulatory Scrutiny: Regulatory bodies will maintain a vigilant approach to antitrust enforcement, impacting the structure and execution of M&A deals. Whilst 2024 had its challenges, companies demonstrated resilience and adaptability, pursuing strategic deals to drive growth and innovation. As we move into 2025, the M&A landscape will continue to evolve, driven by digital transformation, sustainability, and cross-border opportunities. Graham Morgan Louise Jones Alexander Petiq Yuvraj Maharaj Chanelle Honey VicedoDavid Bell