Tyson Mao

CAVA (~$35M/restaurant) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (~$20M/restaurant) far outperform other industry comps for valuation per location. What's their secret? A recent conversation with investor Andy Giacone from Roark Capital summed it up brilliantly: "I've done due diligence on a LOT of public and private restaurants. One of the assets that consistently leads to the highest valuations is the robustness of a brand's loyalty program. For B2C businesses, a scale and high-performing loyalty program is almost as important as recurring revenue in B2B." Why? Performant loyalty programs offers predictability and therefore downside protection while also making it far easier to achieve robust future growth. McKinsey & Company concurs: "While growth is difficult to sustain, it is generously rewarded. In examining 15 major publicly traded restaurant companies... there was a more than 80 percent correlation between annualized same-store sales growth and annualized total shareholder returns.... Successful loyalty programs translate directly into financial results, often encouraging both larger order sizes and greater order frequency from program members. These programs can funnel customers into brands’ first-party delivery businesses, which offer the brand higher margins than it receives from orders conducted through third-party delivery services."

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I recently saw this metric from Carta’s 1Q24 VC Fund Report, which is very concerning. DPI... is nowhere to be found in earlier vintages that probably should start showing DPI. Funding early-stage projects is great, but ultimately, these venture dollars need to exit their investments and pay back their limited partners. That’s where the metric Distributed to Paid-In Capital (DPI) comes in. While managing a fund, we get interim measures during the life of the fund (e.g. IRR, MOIC), but ultimately, “you can’t eat IRR.” If you want to build a lasting venture capital organization, you need to start showing DPI for your fund. Keep in mind that this is traditional VC data from Carta, and is not strictly crypto venture. Crypto venture tends to get liquidity earlier (tokens) and things tend to go parabolic sooner (faster, more unicorns) - but I’d wager that the data here is somewhat similar for Crypto VCs… Not as much DPI as there should be from these earlier vintages. Read the full article, as well as a recap of all the crypto fundraising rounds for August, here: https://lnkd.in/g3eVJ-iF

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The results are in. Emerging managers and especially sub-$25MM funds are out-performing their larger counterparts, even in a sub-optimal market. TVPI metrics for 2017 vintage was 3.8x versus 2.7x for a $100MM+ fund. Even a 2022 vintage is seeing a 1.1x vs a 1x TVPI. I'm personally working with a top-quartile sub $50MM fund that has delivered a 1.6x TVPI from a 2020 vintage with gains of over 100% for it's LPs (and no it's not pre-seed). Another solo-GP has averaged 60x MOIC. Smaller funds are more nimble, have more skin in the game and are quicker to react. Whilst it's predominantly smaller bets at an earlier stage (i.e. more risk), it also means a larger, more diversified portfolio where it only takes 1 to 2 wins to return all the capital to LPs = earlier upside. Add to that a much more favorable cost-structure, it's a relative no-brainer. A bit like startups, this segment is in it's infancy, so I expect we'll see much more data in coming years. (P.S- as I'm seeing some fantastic new operators come to the market, and we still have so much to learn, share and exchange about emerging managers, make sure to sign-up to upcoming newsletter! I'll be sharing much more in-depth insights, fund launches and interviews with GPs and LPs to create a vibrant and meaningful community- link in comments).

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Excited to announce our investment in Alta Resource Technologies alongside Leonardo Banchik (Voyager Ventures) with participation from Orion Resource Partners, Overture Ventures, and WovenEarth Ventures. Rare earths are critical in products from magnets to ceramics and it's important for the US to develop its own supply chain. While the US has some of the best rare earth resources, separating them has historically proven expensive and environmentally unfriendly. Alta through it's computationally designed and optimized proteins allows the US to bring back rare earth production with a cleaner, lower capex, and lower opex solution - and that's just the beginning. Congrats to Nathan Ratledge and the entire Alta team. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/gbGnAJn3

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LP Tip #20 out of #50: To re-up or not to re-up A re-up refers to an LP making an additional investment in a fund where they previously invested. Before we dive in I want to share that there are reasons an LP may not to re-up which are not in your control. Here is a short list: ➡️ The LP may have evolved their strategy and needs to scale back the #️⃣ of funds they invested in.   ➡️ The LP was never set up to re-up in the first place. ➡️ The LP could be an individual that found themselves in a cash crunch and overly exposed to venture.  I'm assuming that when you got your investment that the LP explicitly told you they do re-ups. Please do not assume they do. My expectation is also that the LP dug in to properly underwrite the fund. 🏴 Re-ups are not automatic. An LP will have to re-underwrite each fund. The speed of the re-up also depends on how much work was done in the initial investment, who led the investment, level of confidence there existed when that investment was done, and current pipeline of funds. There are 4 flags that may cause an LP to walk away. 1️⃣ Partner Breakups/Changes and Team Turnover:  The biggest risk in Partnerships are whether the Partners will stay together. One LP gave me a framework on how to think through this issue that has stuck with me. Partnership is like a marriage. If one feels there is potential for a breakup, does one believe it will be an amicable breakup? Or, does one believe the spouses will never talk again? If it is an amicable split that is manageable. The Partners can find a way to support the fund. Then the question becomes whether the LP wants to back the Partner/s that remain.  If there is high team turnover. The LP will want to investigate because team stability is used as a proxy for firm sustainability and ability to scale. 2️⃣ Fund Does not Execute on what they Sold the LP:  The LP “bought” something specific and typically it is because they were missing this strategy or wanted exposure to a strategy for the portfolio they were constructing. An institutional LP will invest and write a detailed investment memo flagging all the things you said you were going to do and then go back and compare when you come back to ask for money. If for example you pitched a generalist seed stage fund and you show up asking for money sharing that you invested in deeptech at A that will cause alarm. The same can be said for the number of companies you promised to invest in or check sizes you wrote. If there are big differences LPs will want to know why. 3️⃣ Bad Actions  The fund manager/s does something that is unethical. This is a no go for an LP.  What if the situation is not clearcut? This is different for everyone and requires discussions b/w GP and LP, but most LPs don't want headline risk. 4️⃣ Continuous Underperformance  If it's early days an LP will look at some key indicators to see how you are progressing over time.

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Why we invested: Gratsi Wine 🍷💸 We led the seed round of Gratsi back in November of '22. At the time, they had zero distribution and their ecommerce revenue was modest. But we were blown away and ultimately decided to partner with the team for a few key reasons: 1. Metrics and efficiency: the underlying metrics of the business were unlike anything we've seen in the space. Gratsi's ability to acquire and retain customers (online and in retail) is unrivaled. 2. Potential for premium boxed wine: we remain convinced that premium boxed wine will continue to become one of the most important categories in the wine space. The volume, margin, and customer experience implications are massive. 3. Founder vision and execution: Stephen Vlahos has been executing relentlessly against his vision since day 1. As we met and got to know Stephen in the early days, it quickly became obvious to us that he would stop at nothing in his mission to build one of the most important wine companies in the world. It's been an amazing two years for Gratsi since we invested and I'm incredibly proud of what the team has accomplished. But I'm perhaps even more excited for the years to come. This team is truly just getting started. Exciting times ahead for Gratsi and the team! cc: Top Shelf Ventures Noah Slakter Jason Sherman

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Check out my recent post on why President Trump is the forcing function for us to solve the “Missing Middle” and catch the industrial Tsunami of onshoring coming to the US!

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We (Climate VC) need to stop making excuses for the growth trajectories of our companies There’s a reason why Matthew Stotts and I chose the venture capital asset class to focus on - it has to GROW fast. And there are a lot of fast-growing, money-making opportunity areas with huge problems that could benefit from highly motivated well-funded and skilled teams looking to build a large company. If you need to make an excuse or caveat for any of the statements in the previous paragraph, you’re in the wrong asset class The good thing about VC is it grows fast and BIG. The clock is ticking on our biggest problem areas - let’s get to work!

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Kettleborough VC has been active for ~6 years, invested in ~30 companies, gone through ~80 funding rounds, witnessed ~12 exits including ~4 instances of partial principal erosion, seen ~4 seed to $100M journeys, tracking ~29% XIRR across the portfolio. A couple of IPOs from the portfolio surely seem very much in line ahead.

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A bit of a tribute to founders / humbling reminder for investors at the start of '25: I've looked at thousands of early-stage fundraising decks over the past two years. In stereotypical fashion, I can typically tell within 30 seconds (2-3 seconds per slide) if I'm going to dig in, and if it's a company I'd be interested in investing in. Over the last two months I have been working on a project with a really cool company who is raising a Series A. I've been supporting on building the deck, data room, etc. So I've been fully back in the early-stage operator seat. And let me tell you. It is SO MUCH HARDER than investing. I sent the deck to some investor friends for feedback. I really value their opinion. Their feedback was stuff that I tell founders all the time about their decks. But I flat out missed it when putting this deck together. Startups are so much easier said than done. It's really hard being in the arena. Founders live there every day. Cheers to you.

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Congrats to Christopher Robson, Kurtis Broda and Kristen Cote at Wyvern on bringing on fantastic new investors Guy Filippelli, Dan Madden and Isaac Carp, CFA at Squadra Ventures. I'm a broken record at this point, but we're in the early innings of the Earth Observation market, and as we're seeing with Wyvern there is more demand for hyperspectral data than supply. As we will see in the coming years, there will be all kinds of problems that can be addressed by understanding our world beyond what our eyes can see. https://lnkd.in/gEzTjYks

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record time to DPI. invested in a fund-of-funds (FoFs) and DPI <45 days later. 2025 should be a good year for DPI for whole ecosystem. DMs open to QPs if want name of FoF. my hot take -- FoFs are way better mechanism for most folks to access venture. You do sacrifice some returns via fee on fees + diversifying away alpha, but that is compensated for by reduced volatility. Also, it's superior to alternatives of (1) allocating to mega VCs which as a function of size will struggle to deliver historic venture style returns or (2) spending a ton of time meeting emerging managers and ending up pretty concentrated. If you appropriately value your time spent sourcing a FoF fees look cheap. not investment advice. don't get anything from them, just think they are good which is why invested.

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The largest acquisition in crypto history occurred just last month: Stripe's $1.1B deal for Bridge. This isn't just a headline—it's a signal of how payment rails are evolving at the intersection of crypto and traditional finance. This week at Lw3 in Dallas, I’ll be speaking on why this acquisition is more than a milestone—it's a glimpse of the future. Crypto-native payment rails are no longer a niche experiment; they’re becoming foundational to global commerce. At Reciprocal Ventures, we’ve been investing in the crypto payments ecosystem since the early days, partnering with pioneering companies like Coinflow Labs, Higlobe and True Markets. This space has been at the forefront of innovation, and we’ve seen firsthand how scalable, efficient, and transparent payment rails are reshaping the way value moves in a digital-first world. I’m excited to explore what this acquisition means for the growth of this ecosystem and why it's only the beginning of a broader wave of innovation and opportunity. If you’re at Lw3, come say hi. I'll be with Steven Feldman — we’d love to connect and share ideas.

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