Stuart Jones, Jr.

Economic warfare - the intentional use of coercive punitive financial tools like sanctions and export controls to change a behavior in a target state (or to protect “strategic goods”) is rarely effective, writes The Economist; citing the case of responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and one study of over 160 sanctions since 1945, finding only a third to be wholly or partially successful in achieving desired result. Read in full -> https://lnkd.in/eTacxFZt (Subscription maybe required) This lack of effectiveness of coercive instruments -is one reason why #PositiveEconomicStatecraft (PES) tools - that incentivize or reward behavior or policy change - foreign assistance, development finance, capacity building, preferential trade for example - are being increasingly seen as important instruments of economic security. As discussed by in our report for Atlantic Council last year, offering an initial blueprint for positive economic statecraft and the the use of economic carrots over sticks to achieve national security objectives. https://lnkd.in/eiaiMn4c Mrugank Bhusari And last week during UNGA, the Atlantic Council Atlantik-Brücke e.V. #TransatlanticForum on #Geoeconomics, The White House National Security Agency DNSA Daleep Singh, in conversation with Julia Friedlander explained why in this “era of economic realpolitik” the USG needs to explore more “positive tools that can both advance our strategic objectives in supply chain resilience, in sustaining technological preeminence, in rebuilding our industrial capacity, and in safeguarding energy security….offering the prospect of mutual economic gain to geopolitical swing states in the Global South”. Read/watch the compelling, insightful conversation in full -> https://lnkd.in/eU4gsQPj As an example of this in action: also last week, #USAID announced new commitments including additional new partners to its Democracy Delivers initiative providing economic and development support to political reformers https://lnkd.in/eBXhkJYq #economicstatecraft #economicsecurity #nationalsecurity #globaldev

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This will be an important theme in this election, and in the years ahead. https://lnkd.in/ewzHu2pn 🔎 IMO, the U. S. needs to fortify an increasingly meak defense budget More on this: U.S. Military Spending: Current Trends vs. Post-WWII Era **Post-WWII Era** After World War II, the United States maintained high military spending levels to support its new role as a global superpower and to counter the Soviet threat during the Cold War. In 1945, U.S. military spending was approximately $10.5 billion, accounting for 41% of the federal budget - This figure rose significantly with the onset of the Korean War in 1950, reaching $14.4 billion, which was 15% of the federal budget. **Cold War to the Early 2000s** During the Cold War, military spending remained a substantial part of the U.S. budget. Peaks were seen during the Korean and Vietnam Wars, and again during the Reagan administration's defense buildup in the 1980s. After the Cold War ended, there was a reduction in military expenditure during the 1990s. **Current Military Spending** In recent years, U.S. military spending has seen substantial fluctuations. The defense budget for FY 2024 is set at approximately $841.4 billion 🪙includes substantial allocations for various branches: 🛩️ $216.1 billion for the Air Force, 🛳️ $202.6 billion for the Navy, 💪165.6 billion for the Army, ⚜️$53.2 billion for the Marine Corps, and 🌖 $30.1 billion for the Space Force. …. Modern defense spending now represents about 13.3% of the federal budget, a decrease in proportion compared to the post-WWII era, but an increase in absolute terms due to inflation and the expanded scope of military operations and technology investments. ### Comparative Analysis **As a Share of GDP** Post-WWII, military spending was a significant portion of the GDP, at times exceeding 40% during WWII itself. Today, military spending is a smaller share of GDP, around 3.5%. **Inflation-Adjusted Comparisons** ….. today's military spending is considerably higher than in the immediate post-WWII years. However, while the absolute dollar amount has increased significantly, its impact has waned. 🌍 the next decade will be a test for Pax-Americana (as it was for the Roman’s Pax-Romana, a hallmark of Roman history, until the death of Marcus Aurelius 180CE, marking a time of unparalleled peace and prosperity in the Roman Empire).

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 To #bridge #infrastructurefinancegaps, African #bank backs Acre Impact Capital.  #SouthAfrica’s RMB - Rand Merchant Bank helped the #firsttimefundmanager raise $100 million for its fund. Acre writes #checks for African #infrastructureprojects to cover the roughly 15% #gap left by #creditguarantees from #importexportbanks (learn more about the model).  The bank’s #commitment underscored the growing #appetite from #Africa's #commercialinvestors to #invest in #enablers of #economicgrowth  (see, "Mobilizing African capital for African infrastructure – without concessional financing").

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Friends - Here's the first of the three posts on the bipartisan U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission top recommendations (apologies for multiple posts). Here's the TL;DR version: It's time the U.S. Government sprints to an AGI capability. It's a strategic imperative. 🌐 AGI: A Strategic Imperative 🌐 Whether it arrives tomorrow or years from now, AGI is coming. Its definition is contested, but it broadly refers to AI systems that match or exceed human capabilities across all cognitive domains. AGI would surpass the sharpest human minds at every task—from writing novels and proving theorems to strategic planning and scientific discovery. The country that first develops AGI capabilities will almost certainly secure strategic autonomy, gaining a competitive edge in research, innovation, and economic growth, while reshaping the global balance of power. AGI could analyze vast data sets and provide insights critical to national security and defense. That’s why the Commission's number one recommendation is a large-scale, moonshot Manhattan Project-like sprint to achieve AGI. Here's the bipartisan recommendation: 1️⃣. Congress establish and fund a Manhattan Project-like program dedicated to racing to and acquiring an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) capability. AGI is generally defined as systems that are as good as or better than human capabilities across all cognitive domains and would usurp the sharpest human minds at every task. Among the specific actions the Commission recommends for Congress: ➡ Provide broad multiyear contracting authority to the executive branch and associated funding for leading artificial intelligence, cloud, and data center companies and others to advance the stated policy at a pace and scale consistent with the goal of U.S. AGI leadership; and ➡ Direct the U.S. secretary of defense to provide a Defense Priorities and Allocations System “DX Rating” to items in the artificial intelligence ecosystem to ensure this project receives national priority. #USPolicy #ArtificialIntelligence #AGI #Biotechnology #TechPolicy Thank you again to all of my commissioner and staff colleagues for all of their collegiality and hard work, including Robin Cleveland, PhD, LPC, Reva Price, Aaron Friedberg, Kim Glas, Carte Goodwin, Jacob Helberg, Leland Miller, Randy Schriver, Cliff Sims, Jonathan N. Stivers, Michael Wessel, Mike Castellano, Jameson Cunningham, and many others. Here's the link for folks that want to check out the FULL report: https://lnkd.in/erqNVxxF Here's where to find the Executive Summary: https://lnkd.in/eWwCCd5A Here's where to find the Recommendations: https://lnkd.in/epykgGSC

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The impact of a #Trump Administration in the US on #trade with #Africa will be an important part of the discussion tomorrow at GTR Africa - Trade and export finance conference in #London. Did you know...? 🤓 #SouthAfrica provides $3.6bn of exports a year under #AGOA (mostly automotive, fruits, and metals) 🚗 🍋 🪙 #Nigeria exported some $3.5bn in crude #oil to the US in 2022 also under #AGOA 🛢️ Other African beneficiaries of preferential trade with the US include #Angola, #Ghana, #Madacascar, and #Kenya 🌍 I look forward to sharing some of these insights on the outlook for African trade and infrastructure at #GTRAfrica tomorrow PANGEA-RISK Global Trade Review (GTR) #GTR #sanctions #freetrade

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"Rising geopolitical tensions and efforts to pursue de-risking have seen national security assume a more prominent place in domestic policy debates about trade and investment. More than ever, trade officials are engaging with their counterparts from the national security and defence establishments — the result is an uptick in trade and investment restrictions across a wide range of sectors from semiconductors and critical minerals to renewable energy technologies." #nationalsecurity #geopolitics #safety #trade #commerce #defence #dualuse #economy #investment #traderestriction #sanctions #cooperation #gdp

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 Glad to see my latest article in African Affairs, "The Politics of Cryptocurrency Regulation in Africa." In this article, I put forward an initial theory to explain a) why governments in sub-Saharan Africa opt to regulate the crypto industry, and, b) why they alternately regulate in favor or against crypto use. Using case studies of Nigeria and the Central African Republic, I argue that novel threats to regime stability jolt regulators into taking a position on crypto. Whether crypto use exacerbates or attenuates that threat determines whether regulators seek to stifle (as in Nigeria) or facilitate (as in CAR) crypto use. https://lnkd.in/gnfun6kC

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US Federal Government's funding of Treasury's Office of Terrorism & Financial Intelligence (TFI) and Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). With mainstream media reporting that Congress is getting ready to do something to keep the federal government funded and open past the end of its fiscal year (September 30, 2024), I thought I'd give a quickie summary of where TFI and FinCEN have been the last couple of fiscal years. This Congressional Research Service report on the FY2025 appropriations provides some of the details. But the headlines are these (dollars are rounded to the million): TFI - its FY2023 enacted budget was $216 million. Its FY2024 request was $244 million. Its enacted FY2024 budget is $227 million (a 5 percent increase over FY2023). Last March it asked for $231 million for FY2025. To date, the House is prepared to appropriate $235 million, the Senate $231 million. Likely result? TFI will get what it asked for: $231 million (less than a 2 percent increase over FY2024). Lucky for TFI that it has the darling of counter-financial-crimes agencies, the sanctions-imposing Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). FinCEN - its FY2023 enacted budget was $190 million. Its FY2024 request was $229 million. Its enacted FY2024 is $190 million (flat to FY2023). Last March it asked for $216 million for FY2025. To date, the House is prepared to appropriate $170 million, the Senate $216 million. Likely result? Who knows, the House Republicans that control the relevant committee - House Financial Services Committee - really, really, REALLY don't like what FinCEN has done, is doing, is proposing to do, and how it communicates with the HFSC members and staff. Most of us learned very young that if there was any hope that Mom and Dad were going to raise our allowance, we had to do our chores, behave, and, frankly, not piss off Mom and Dad. Here, I hope FinCEN has learned that it has to do its chores, behave, and not piss off the Republicans on the HFSC. If not, it might not get a raise in its allowance. Indeed, it could get its allowance cut. Of the 459 agencies in the US federal government, I'd put the IRS and FinCEN (and maybe the CFPB) right at the top of agencies hoping for a change in control of the House ... https://lnkd.in/gFr_fnxt

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Lots going on in Equatorial Guinea. Energy and security are driving foreign interest. On military issue, some think that it could become the next Djibouti. Raises questions about what is in the longterm interests of the United States. My latest article exams these issues. 

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“Besides our meetings with #multilateral #financialinstitutions, and #foreign #investor groups with a keen interest on developments in Nigeria, including a critical gathering at the #USChamberofCommerce, we had very productive discussions with leading International #MoneyTransfer Operators (IMTOs), where we collectively committed to doubling remittance flows through formal channels into #Nigeria in the immediate short to medium term. This target is both ambitious and achievable, and we’re wasting no time in setting up a collaborative task force, reporting to myself, to drive progress and address any bottlenecks that hinder flows through formal channels.” ~ Olayemi Cardoso | BusinessDay Kudos; restoring a healthy inflow of fx is essential; even as the #petroleum industry remains the core source of #fx that needs highest priority for optimisation.

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I am disappointed (but not surprised) to learn of the decisions by Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) and Congressman Gregory Meeks (D-NY) to release their respective holds on the $18B F-15 fighter jet sale to Israel that was in tiered review, and would expect this case to be formally notified to Congress in time for the 15-day notification period to have passed by the time war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu addresses Congress on July 24th. I encourage members of the U.S. Senate to introduce a Joint Resolution of Disapproval (JRD) to attempt to block this sale. Though the historical track record demonstrates that no such measure has ever been enacted or succeeded in blocking an arms transfer, a well-timed JRD may at least enable the Senate to resume the robust floor debate on U.S. military support to Israel that it had been carrying out in the context of the supplemental appropriations process. I caution senior decision-makers within the U.S. Government, and officials at the F-15 manufacturer Boeing Defense, Space & Security that the authorization and ultimate delivery of this system to Israel given what is manifestly evident about the conduct of the IDF in Gaza, and what is being charged via the ICJ and ICC, may create personal legal exposure for them, and that the nature of this exposure does not come with an expiration date, and may be chargeable under universal jurisdiction at courts in third countries. The same, of course, applies even more particularly to authorizations for arms that have been issued and executed against during the past eight months, and for as long as Israel's operation in Gaza continues. There is an urgent need to reform the oversight of arms transfers, and to provide Congress with a tool to prevent them that, unlike the JRD process which has never worked, and unlike the Tiered Review process which continues to fray at its edges, is actually effective. One such proposal was made in the National Security Powers Act (NSPA) bill previously sponsored by Senators Chris Murphy, Bernie Sanders and Mike Lee, which would have required a positive vote of approval for major arms transfers, rather than a veto-proof majority against. However, the NSPA would not have included Israel in the group of countries for which such an approval was required, and it is clear that at this time absolute majorities in Congress continue to back sending arms to a country that uses them to willfully slaughter children - and then intends to celebrate the architect of that slaughter. This remains a moment of deep shame for our country, a moment future generations will look back on in horror. And a moment that will demand accountability for as long as we remember it. https://lnkd.in/eba_Z4jr

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“The challenge (when it comes to trade policy) is we don’t really have a framework for balancing how much efficiency v. how much national security and at what cost are we willing to trade off one versus the other.” With the backdrop of new tariffs on Chinese EVs, a thoughtful discussion with Council on Foreign Relations President Mike Froman on the implications for US/EU-China economic relations; the drivers of protectionism and global trade; and the silver linings around trade integration and liberalisation.

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President Macron of France represents open governance and accountability to French citizens!!! President Emmanuel Macron of France is indeed a strong advocate for open governance. He has demonstrated this commitment through various engagements, and initiatives, particularly with the Open Government Partnership (OGP), a multinational effort to promote transparency, citizen participation, and accountability in governments. During the 2020 OGP Virtual Leaders Summit, Macron emphasized the importance of transparency, participation, and accountability in strengthening democracies. He highlighted France's efforts to advance open contracting, citizen participation, and accountability, showcasing the country's dedication to open governance principles. Macron's presidency has been marked by significant reforms aimed at increasing transparency and citizen engagement. For instance, his government introduced the "loi Macron" (Macron law), which aimed to stimulate economic growth through deregulation and simplification of administrative procedures. Key Open Governance Initiatives: - Open Contracting: France has implemented transparent procurement processes to ensure fair competition and value for public money. - Citizen Participation: Macron's government has encouraged citizen engagement in public decision-making through various platforms and initiatives. - Accountability: France has strengthened its accountability mechanisms, including the establishment of independent institutions to oversee government activities. Kudos! The efforts demonstrate Macron's commitment to open governance, aligning with the principles of transparency, participation, and accountability.

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A narrative violation can be defined as: Find a broad topic on which most agree and be contrarian via unique, differentiated insight. Here's ours:

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