Sonali Basak

Why is getting added to key market indexes is a plus for management? It creates built in demand for the stock. https://lnkd.in/eWyRaUnT

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If you are confused about Fed messaging right now, I try to unpack the problem in this story. To put it simply, the Fed communicates in baselines, not in bets, to paraphrase Annie Duke. They need a better way to communicate probabilities. Every policy maker who said three cuts this year looks like a good baseline most likely had an unusually high probability of less than three that they didn't communicate. There are many ways to communicate about risk and uncertainty. The Fed is behind other central banks on this front. https://lnkd.in/ese7jpEb

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My latest for Finadium - also free to access - is the second in our conference preview series. How UST clearing is changing the market and what that might imply about new players that could boost the market as well as alternative routes for transacting.

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MY LATEST ON PRIVATE CREDIT: Blue-chip asset managers known primarily for their private-equity businesses have significantly increased private credit as a percentage of their assets under management within the past year. Private-equity giant Blackstone, with assets that rose about 7% to more than $1.06 trillion in the first quarter, increased its credit and insurance assets 13% to $329.6 billion at the end of March from $291.3 billion a year earlier. At buyout firm KKR & Co., assets managed by its credit business rose almost 12% to $260 billion at the end of this year’s first quarter from $233 billion a year earlier. Other publicly traded asset managers have also noted the increasing importance of private credit. In recent earnings reports and conference calls on the results, firm leaders cited strong returns as well as significant investor and borrower interest in debt offerings as driving forces of growth in the asset class. https://lnkd.in/ebDbhWw2

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While the S&P 500 has set 31 new records this year, few of its members outside of the technology high-flyers are participating in the advance. In the last three months, the 10 largest stocks in the index by market capitalization — mostly tech giants — have posted a median gain of 17%, while the rest have lost 1.3%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. With Jan-Patrick Barnert

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BlackRock's acquisition of HPS was driven, largely, by a desire to create a private credit powerhouse. However, the deal has knock on effects for BlackRock's CLO unit. Full story on 9fin 👇 https://lnkd.in/eju9yVR5

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In the paper's Closing Bell column, looked at how documents lodged with SEC show Bill Ackman is set to IPO his biggest fund yet for retail investors, targeting a $US26b raising, zero performance fees, zero management fees for 12 months, close-ended structure, UBS, Citi underwriting, spoke to Geoff Wilson Wilson Asset Management https://lnkd.in/gHgd9te5

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U.S. banks Citigroup and Bank of America said on Tuesday they are exiting the Net-Zero Banking Alliance, a group of global banks that have pledged to curb greenhouse gas emissions - https://lnkd.in/gR3aUiVN

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#Scoop Blackstone-owned Packers Sanitation, grappling with financial strain after losing customers following a fine for child labor violations, has secured $275 million to address Goldman Sachs' looming debt.

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NEW: MUFG's US corporate lending arms just came back to market from an almost four month break after getting dinged by regulators. More details now available for subscribers on 9fin. If you want access to this and more on what's happening in the private credit market, contact [email protected] for more information. The latest w/ David Brooke: #privatecredit #leveragedfinance

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This quarter's earnings from NYCB have inspired a very different reaction than the last, with shares up as much as 22% this morning. Under new CEO Joseph Otting, the bank's embarking on a turnaround to be more diversified and profitable over the coming years, after shares had tumbled by more than 70% amid concerns about its property loans. Story on the first-quarter results and longer-term plan with Hannah Levitt and Daniel Taub:

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From my Taking Stock today: the higher technology stocks go, the less tolerant one nook of Wall Street gets to any signs of weakness in the group. Commodity trading advisors, or CTAs, that use trend-following strategies boosted exposure in Nasdaq 100 futures to such stretched levels that the so-called stop-loss triggers have become very tight, according to Bank of America Corp. From where things stand, CTAs can start unwinding their positions if the gauge’s futures drop 2.8% or more. A month ago, the pain threshold hovered near 4%.

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Today was the 70th edition of the On the Margin newsletter (following the intersections between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance). Thanks to all who read. And if it's your first time, welcome. Consider getting tomorrow's newsletter in your inbox by subscribing here: https://lnkd.in/eEDi_SGa

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Check out some of the major themes Finadium will be covering at our upcoming Rates & Repo conference: up first - everything you should know about where collateral optimization is at. (And it's a free article!)

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Goldman’s Scott Rubner Says ‘Not Buying the Dip’ as Correction Begins ** Strategist says July 17 tends to mark peak in S&P 500 returns ** Donald Trump odds are getting priced into S&P, Rubner adds ** July 17, has historically marked a turning point for returns on the equities benchmark ** While some investors argue that strong earnings, a possible near-term interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, and the rising odds of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election would provide another boost for stocks, Rubner says they won’t be positive catalysts. ** Such events are already getting priced into the market and the bar for earnings for the biggest technology stocks that drove market to record highs is remarkably high. “And by high, I mean they need to be great,” he wrote. Full story here, edited by Cristin Flanagan https://lnkd.in/e--pxuEt

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Launching the redesigned bi-weekly private-credit newsletter. Private Lenders Get Pickier; Demand Holds Up; AI Front & Center. Please share thoughts and comments. https://lnkd.in/eDGF8edW #privatemarkets #credit #lending #investing #debt #banks #WallStreet #privateequity #AI

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U.S. interest rates have worldwide repercussions. Today, soft-as-expected inflation data bolstered expectations of rate cuts sooner rather than later. My piece for WSJ on PCE inflation and its implications for the Fed.

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Where’s the line between job market “”cooling” and “moderating” and breaking? A risk manager would hedge against these trends in the chart continuing. Fed appears ready to do that and cut 25 bp. Arguments in favor: economy looks ok, employment still expanding, not an “emergency.” Arguments for doing even more: Line between cooling and cracking might be thin. Pushing nominal rate down 50 bp seems low cost with policy rate now at 5.5 to 5.25 & inflation easing. Losing the soft landing would be a political & reputational disaster so why not insure against it? What would you do? 50 or 25?

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