Ryan Peters

Excited to see this new piece penned by my colleague, Rodrigo C. Serrano, CFA, from our Chief Investment Office, on the economic potential of the Hispanic-Latino community in the U.S. Below are some key insights that I took away from this body of work. The three legs of the U.S. Hispanic-Latino community economic stool are: a) growing population b) an energetic spirit of entrepreneurship c) growing wealth Expanding on each: I) Population and labor force growth Hispanics comprised a 19.1% share of the U.S. population in 2022. By 2060, the Census Bureau estimates that it will grow to nearly 27% of the total population, reaching 98.0 million. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, from 1990 to 2000, Hispanics accounted for 35% of the net new supply of workers. From 2010-2020 it became a dominant 91% and in this decade it’s expected to be 78%. II) Entrepreneurship Stanford University notes that from 2007 to 2022, Latino-owned employer businesses with at least $10,000 in annual revenue (LOBs) grew by 57%, well above the rate for non-Latino-owned employer firms, which was 5%. III) Wealth According to the Council of Economic Advisors of The White House, from 2013 to 2022, the real wealth of Hispanic families more than tripled. This increase from $20,000 to $63,400 significantly outpaced all other racial demographics and that of the general population, which saw its value not quite double, rising from $102,185 to $192,160. The 64 million Hispanic-Latino cohort is the new mainstream economy of America and the growth engine of our nation's future. Chris Hyzy, Yago Gonzalez, CFA, MBA, Sid Assomull Merrill Lynch, Bank of America

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I was thinking about how commodity trading risks keep shifting, and I’m really curious where do you see the biggest risks on the horizon? ✅ 2020: Demand shock ✅ 2022: Liquidity squeeze ✅ 2024: Compliance and credit concerns ❓ 2026: What’s next? Join me and Guadalupe Landa Rosas as we dive deeper into these issues. Let’s make #RiskManagement happen! #CommodityTrading #RiskAwareness

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Successfully managing distressed divestitures in Mexico requires a tailored strategy to optimize outcomes and address risks effectively. In a complex market, combining strategic foresight, local expertise, and regulatory know-how is crucial. The latest insights from Hilco Global explore the intricate dynamics of the Mexican market, offering actionable guidance on aligning with legal frameworks and leveraging skilled advisors for successful outcomes. Read here: https://lnkd.in/ecjpDEbT

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Navigating Mexico's distressed asset landscape demands early monetization, tailored strategies, and strong local partnerships. As regulations and market conditions shift, businesses that stay agile and align with regional trends can recover and grow. Explore these strategies in the latest Hilco Global Smarter Perspective Podcast: https://lnkd.in/e_hi-J9e #HilcoGlobal #HilcoGlobalMexico #DistressedAssets

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In January, I analyzed the iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSEARCA:EWW) with a BUY rating given the county's various key drivers, such as nearshoring, rate cuts, and solid corporate earnings expectations. I am now downgrading the ETF to Sell based on political risks that are only partly priced in. The Morena Party's control of both houses may result in constitutional “reforms” that undermine checks and balances, while a second Trump term can further lead to selling pressure. Downgraded from Buy to Sell due to further political risks from constitutional "reform" and a potential second Trump term. The Mexican market has seen a 10% weaker Peso and a 15% decline in the EWW during political uncertainty that can persist in the next 5 months. EWW's valuation appears cheap post-sell-off at 11x PE, but analysts' downgrades are likely on weaker FX and increased country risk as we head into the 2Q24 earnings. #EWW #Mexico #Investing https://lnkd.in/emwJpjRG

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  I had the pleasure of giving a talk at the Concordia #AmericasSummit in Miami on productivity growth in Latin America this week.   Here are a few takeaways:   Takeaway 1: The past 25 years were a global miracle for productivity, as the global median labor productivity jumped six-fold, from $7,000 per year to $41,000. But in Latin America, productivity growth has been relatively slow, increasing from $37,000 per year per employee in 1997 to $43,000 in 2022.   Takeaway 2: Low investment growth has been a significant driver of persistently low productivity growth in Latin America in the last 25 years. The growth of capital per hour in China grew over fourfold from 1997 to 2020. In Latin America it grew by less than 30% over the full 25 years.   Takeaway 3: There's a need for a significant rethink on infrastructure, economic diversification, institutional strength. Latin America's economic structure is highly dependent on commodities, with roughly 50% of its exports being commodities and its productivity growth in both manufacturing and services has been low.   Low investment is at the root of all of this. I posed the question, what would it take to double investment in Latin America? Thanks to the Concordia team for your partnership. Great collaborating with colleagues Andres Cadena, Julio Giraut, Santiago Carbonell, Carlos Enrique Buitrago, Joaquin Mahdjoubian Diaz Cano, and Paula Duran.     #productivity #LatAm  

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As part of our survey of users of securities finance execution platforms released last week, we asked market participants how they defined “execution platform,” and if this was the same or different than a messaging platform. Here’s what they said. More on #finadium: https://lnkd.in/e3wmsYpJ

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The Morningstar Retirement crew is having a week, helping lead the way! 1. Key methodology research from our CIO, Thomas Idzorek was selected as an Editor's Choice paper by the CFA Institute's FAJ. People have more than one bucket of money, and certainly have personal preferences. Tom's paper, Personalized Multiple Account Portfolio Optimization, focuses on how to get it done. Link here (there is a video and abstract for those of you more like me than Tom!!) - https://lnkd.in/gkyNQUCz 2. The DC Pension Geek podcast released this week from the American Retirement Association and National Association of Plan Advisors is a must listen episode, with a great breakdown of the #fiduciaryrule with Brian Graff and Morningstar's Aron Szapiro. Morningstar research is cited 40+ times in the rule, so listening to these two dig in is worth it! Link here - https://lnkd.in/gq6VeXyW 3. The next wave of collaborative research from CFERS was released this week, focused on the impact the Saver's Tax Credit could have on reducing the gender/race disparities in retirement savings. Important research, we should all be up to speed on. Morningstar's Jack VanDerhei is the big brain behind this research, in collaboration with Defined Contribution Institutional Investment Association (DCIIA) and The Aspen Institute. Link here - https://lnkd.in/gVV8dm38

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Like many of my clients, colleagues, and peers this #NYCClimateWeek was spent hustling around NYC listening to and meeting with accomplished speakers who provided insightful and thought provoking content. My Top Ten takeaways from #NYCClimateWeek 1-Climate Transition = Opportunity for Growth 2-Sustainability is a Core Business Value 3-Value Creation can be driven by Sustainability principles 4-Investors and consumers alike have made sustainability a differentiator 5-Sustainability and Technology are at the intersection of Innovation 6-CDR on the “Main Stage” all week 7-More companies positioning sustainability at the core of their operations 8-Innovative Financing solutions – questions of what, how and when with the critical answer of RIGHT NOW 9-There is a subway for everywhere you need to get to in NYC… Thank you #NYCSubway 10-I still have not found a comfortable pair of heels to walk in and around NYC #Sustainablity #CDR #climatetransition Thank you to our Acre team - was great to be with everyone in the office this week. Deborah Dols, Jenny Han Simon, Catherine Harris, Ellen Rutherford, Lewis Murray, Shannon Lewis, Anna Bene, George Roberts

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$475 Securitization of Capital Calls - Packaging private fund loans into bonds by Immanual John Milton, Scott Carpenter and Carmen Arroyo Goldman Sachs has teamed up with Blackstone to package private fund loans into bonds, a new form of debt that banks could look to sell more of in the future. The pair last week sold $475 million in bonds backed by loans that banks make to investment funds. These loans exist because private equity and other investment vehicles raise money in the form of commitments from investors to hand over cash when the fund demands it. Loans can help the funds delay asking for liquidity from their investors, which can boost fund return metrics. Goldman Sachs made a group of these loans and packaged them into asset-backed securities. Blackstone bought the riskiest part of the deal. This securitization creates a bridge between the fund finance world and the public asset-backed securities market, a link that’s expected to strengthen. Goldman’s Adam Zotkow, head of US fund finance, said capital call securitizations will provide one new method for the bank to make more of these loans. He expects the bank to occasionally tap this source of funds in the future. “We have opened up a new asset class with low historical losses to asset managers and insurance companies,” Zotkow said. While capital call receivables have never been packaged into broadly sold asset-backed securities until now, the asset class has had low credit risk, according to Stuart Rothenberg, a senior vice president at Morningstar DBRS, which rated the top tranche AAA. The pool of capital call lines in the deal tie back to several thousand limited partners, the largest of which include Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council (ADIC), according to investor materials seen by Bloomberg. As part of the deal, Blackstone is injecting equity in exchange for a share of cash flows thrown off by the underlying investor commitments, according to the person with knowledge. The deal comes as banks are increasingly partnering with private sector lenders to share their balance sheets while preserving relationships with borrowers. One popular technique, known as synthetic risk transfers, ballooned in popularity over the last year as banks sought ways to reduce their risk capital exposure under Basel III Endgame rules. Several such deals have focused explicitly on capital call lines to funds, including a $2 billion deal in July by Goldman Sachs. Lending against capital call lines is a roughly $900 billion market. That market was disrupted last year after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic and Signature Bank. Goldman picked up some of those smaller lenders’ subscription lending assets in the wake of the upheaval. “The subscription line business has been a key focus for us,” Zotkow said. The deal “enables us to scale lending while partnering with investors looking to access this growing segment of the fund finance market

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#BeyondTheCurve https://lnkd.in/e9H8-9tg Its the #PrivateCredit 'coming out' party! The kid is now all grown up - from $200B ten years ago to $2T and counting. Comprising predominantly of Direct Lending, other asset sub-classes - Subordinate, Mezzanine, Distressed and Special situation - are also growing fast. As traditional banks retreat from lending - especially to lower rated borrowers - the opportunity for #PrivateCredit opens up. Apollo anticipates another 10X increase to $20T over next decade or so. But thats still not the end game. The overall Bank Credit outstanding globally is about $160T and on path to growing much further as Asia grows and formalizes its economy. India alone will need $50T in additional credit over the next 30 years! And bulk of this will be foreign capital, perhaps third as Private Credit. But that's the future. Here and now in US, the asset class is maturing. Size of loans are growing, Banks are joining the Private Credit firms in 'club deals', and lending is expanding into asset-backed - as noted by this article. And regulators are taking notice - as they should. This is no longer a niche market. Risk of contagions is rising We have seen this movie play put before in another asset class - Broadly Syndicated Loans (#BSL). Bad data, broken settlement pipes, 45 days trade settlement cycles, exploding risks (Revlon case) - this should not be the road Private Credit should walk on. Fortunately, #AI can address the challenges not only for #PrivateCredit but also for #BSL. #AI will help normalize data lakes across all entities, map them to Financial Services ontology, normalize reporting and help identify risks and stresses before they become systemically significant. Between #BSL and #PrivateCredit markets, we are already past $5T in assets. Time to step up the game and use #AI to help mature the way we run things

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I am excited to see our Founder and Managing Partner Doug Cruikshank join in on such an impactful panel at the NYC Private Debt Conference. As the lines continue to blur between NAV Solutions and Secondaries, it is important for GPs and LPs to key in on these topics to better understand the direction the markets are trending. #Secondaries #FundFinance #NAVSolutions #NAVFinancing #PrivateEquity #PrivateDebt #PrivateCredit

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Proud to share that I've been selected for Institutional Investor's Next Generation award. I have to thank the wonderful platform at Montgomery County for giving me the opportunity to drive significant change. Over the past 2 years, it became clear there was a substantial opportunity and problem in the market – infrastructure funds are prolific co-investors, yet generally, only large and sophisticated plans have processes in place to access that deal flow. In 2023, my goal was to develop a solution. Using the feedback from meeting with dozens of co-investing LPs, GPs, and consultants, I drafted a co-investment process. The team and peers helped revise it many times over until we came to a thorough, detailed process spelling out A to Z how we would execute on co-investment opportunities. After that, I hosted a co-investment panel consisting of LPs/GPs and our consultant, Albourne, at our board retreat to further educate our board about co-investments, specifically within the real asset space. Finally, John Constantine Feketekuty, CFA, Albourne, namely, Jennifer Yeung, and Mark White, and I presented our co-investment solution to our board, where it was approved. The overarching idea is that if you develop a thorough co-investment process with precise parameters and layer it onto an already robust primary commitment process, you can build a co-investment portfolio that consists of additional pieces of the same asset you already own (through your primary commitments) at no fee, allowing you to average down the fee profile of your program and generate significant savings. If you want to hear more, feel free to reach out or you can catch me speaking on a few panels in June. I'll be on an investor fireside panel for IREI on June 5-6th in DC and then Institutional Investor's Investor Week in Rhode Island speaking about the future of infrastructure, reach out to Giana Mortellite if you'd like to attend that. https://lnkd.in/eUiiCYGh

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2025 is shaping up to be an exciting year in FX! Check out Juan Perez's views on the currency landscape and how the new administration will affect your budgeting and thought processes throughout the year. Check out Monex USA's annual currency outlook for exclusive market insights from our Director of Trading, Juan G. Perez. 📊 Full 2024 Currency Outlook: https://okt.to/jA2LKJ #currency #fx #newyear #2025outlook #forex #trading #tariffs #emergingmarkets

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Great article on BNY’s history 👍

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Jobs report will temper cut expectations! Joaquin Kritz Lara has been saying for a while now that markets were overpricing cuts. While markets thought the Fed would cut 8 times by mid-2025, we were predicting 4... These strong labor market figures should cause markets to temper their rate-cut expectations. As we have identified in recent reports, market expectations for a rapid easing cycle were inconsistent with an economy that by many metrics continues to overheat. Instead, we project a longer but more gradual easing cycle than the market is pricing, as our research indicates that near-term economic robustness should give way to deceleration by the second half of 2025. #fed #ratecuts #growth #fedfunds #ffr #futures #macro

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Private Credit AUM has grown by 20% cagr and has reached an estimated USD 1.8 trillion. It is now becoming a more hybrid market, and we are seeing private credit firms and banks increasingly partnering to help clients get the best financing options. Recent notable partnerships like those between Citi and Apollo Global Management, Inc., Wells Fargo and Centerbridge Partners, L.P., Barclays and AGL Credit Management, and more, illustrate powerful synergies. The partnership offers a competitive edge to both institutions and borrowers. Banks’ deep relationships and broad service offerings complement private credit’s agility and lesser regulations, making the combined a powerful tool for tailored solutions. The partnership helps banks serve their clients with enhanced flexibility; faster and flexible lending terms, flexible capital structures, providing solutions that traditional lending structures may not accommodate due to regulatory constraints. This also gives banks ability to participate in direct lending deals without bearing the full risk on their balance sheets, and diversifying risk profiles. Borrowers, especially middle-market companies, stand to benefit enormously from these partnerships. The rise of private credit partnerships represents the future of lending—blending stability of banks with the innovative, nimble capital access of private credit funds, likely transforming the way businesses source capital, making it a win-win for all parties involved. Here is our intelligence piece highlighting some more partnerships and the nuances of this trend. https://lnkd.in/dQfZEpMM #PrivateCredit #Banks #PrivateCreditBanksPartnership  #DirectLending #PrivateMarkets

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