Ryan Rabideau

Which vacation rental markets will see the most growth in organic STR demand over the next 5 years? We went about answering that question and more in some amazing research with my team at AirDNA. Full report here: https://lnkd.in/e4Dx22AY A brief overview below (you should still read the report): We started with a hypothesis that the massive migration movements over the past 4 years would have a long-term impact on short-term rental demand growth. Furthermore, expected upcoming population growth would further dictate future travel trends Why? The city you live in plays a major factor in where you travel. We first determined the feeder cities for every major vacation rental market, then measured the statistically significant relationship between population and STR demand growth: For the last two years (2022 and 2023) every 1% population growth in feeder cities correlates with a 2.5-3% increase in STR demand. Looking at the past 4 years, metros like Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Tampa, Austin, and Atlanta saw the most in-migration while New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, Oakland, and San Jose realized the most out-migration. Based on these historical population movements, and expected travel destinations, these are the vacation rental markets poised to capture most demand growth: 1. Corpus Christi, TX 2. Fredericksburg, TX 3. South Padre Island, TX 4. Galveston, TX 5. Broken Bow Lake, OK 6. Pinetop-Lakeside, AZ 7. Boone, NC 8. North Carolina Mtns 9. Lake Hartwell, SC 10. Hot Springs, AR We then measured changes in future demand using Oxford Economics' population growth forecasts each metro area, weighted by each vacation rental markets current share of feeder city demand, for the next 5 years and compared it to the current investment yield in those same markets. This helps answer: Where are the best paces to invest today and capture outsized demand growth in the future? What vacation rental markets am I investing based on this research? Top right quadrant! (Scatter plot in the comments below). In no particular order: - Corpus Christi, TX - Broken Bow Lake, OK - Grey Harbor, WA - Northern Cascade Mtns, WA - North Georgia Mtns - Galveston, TX - Boone, NC - Fredericksburg, TX - South Padre Island, TX Check out the full report, where you can also explore the feeder cities for every U.S. market. Want the full list? Shoot me a DM. https://lnkd.in/e4Dx22AY Great work by Jeff Tucker & Bram Gallagher with incredible support from the AirDNA research & marketing teams.

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What if I told you that the key to successful investing lies not just in the numbers, but in the relationships you build? Last week, I had the honor of being a panelist at the 2024 Avestor Fund Managers Retreat in the Pacific Northwest, surrounded by over 60 savvy fund managers dedicated to mastering the art of wealth creation. This experience reminded me of how important strong connections are in real estate investing.. The discussions we had about creating generational wealth, sticking to the fundamentals, importance of due diligence & looking under the covers,  were not just theoretical but they were actionable strategies learnt through experience... If you manage debt funds or syndications, here are some tips: 👉 Build Strong Relationships 👉Share Knowledge  👉Stay Informed 👉Join Communities 👉Evaluate Your Strategies So, ask yourself: Are you leveraging the right tools and relationships to maximize your investment potential?

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CAVA (~$35M/restaurant) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (~$20M/restaurant) far outperform other industry comps for valuation per location. What's their secret? A recent conversation with investor Andy Giacone from Roark Capital summed it up brilliantly: "I've done due diligence on a LOT of public and private restaurants. One of the assets that consistently leads to the highest valuations is the robustness of a brand's loyalty program. For B2C businesses, a scale and high-performing loyalty program is almost as important as recurring revenue in B2B." Why? Performant loyalty programs offers predictability and therefore downside protection while also making it far easier to achieve robust future growth. McKinsey & Company concurs: "While growth is difficult to sustain, it is generously rewarded. In examining 15 major publicly traded restaurant companies... there was a more than 80 percent correlation between annualized same-store sales growth and annualized total shareholder returns.... Successful loyalty programs translate directly into financial results, often encouraging both larger order sizes and greater order frequency from program members. These programs can funnel customers into brands’ first-party delivery businesses, which offer the brand higher margins than it receives from orders conducted through third-party delivery services."

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Las Vegas City real estate prices are up an astounding 254.25% since '10.... Have you ever felt that housing data moved too slowly? So did we at Parcl Labs. So we fixed housing data and brought it up to the speed of today through our industry leading price feeds. Now available in our API, our real time pricing layer for housing is accessible for a hundred markets around the country. Let's review the stats for the Las Vegas City price feed. % Change (30 Day): 0.75% 📈 % Change (6 mo): 2.97% 📈 % Change (YoY): 7.75% 📈 % Change (5 yr): 55.22% 📈 % Change (Since `10): 254.24% 📈 Annualized Volatility: 1.09% #realestate #realestateinvesting #realestateinvestor #dataanalytics #singlefamilyrentals #housingmarket #sfr #housinginventory

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Why we invested: Gratsi Wine 🍷💸 We led the seed round of Gratsi back in November of '22. At the time, they had zero distribution and their ecommerce revenue was modest. But we were blown away and ultimately decided to partner with the team for a few key reasons: 1. Metrics and efficiency: the underlying metrics of the business were unlike anything we've seen in the space. Gratsi's ability to acquire and retain customers (online and in retail) is unrivaled. 2. Potential for premium boxed wine: we remain convinced that premium boxed wine will continue to become one of the most important categories in the wine space. The volume, margin, and customer experience implications are massive. 3. Founder vision and execution: Stephen Vlahos has been executing relentlessly against his vision since day 1. As we met and got to know Stephen in the early days, it quickly became obvious to us that he would stop at nothing in his mission to build one of the most important wine companies in the world. It's been an amazing two years for Gratsi since we invested and I'm incredibly proud of what the team has accomplished. But I'm perhaps even more excited for the years to come. This team is truly just getting started. Exciting times ahead for Gratsi and the team! cc: Top Shelf Ventures Noah Slakter Jason Sherman

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In 2013, Lori Torres felt an undeniable spark when she conceived the idea for Parcel Pending, a smart locker solution designed to tackle the package crisis in apartment buildings. Despite being the primary breadwinner in her family with a thriving real estate career, she took a monumental risk. She left her secure job, sold the family’s cherished home, and even persuaded her mother to risk her property for a loan. Within a year of these sacrifices, Lori had developed her first smart lockers. Her innovation soon caught on, with her lockers becoming a key solution for property management companies and residents. By the end of 2014, Lori’s commitment had not only secured her first major order but also attracted investors, setting the stage for tremendous growth. Within six years, Parcel Pending was sold for $100 million, turning her mother’s loan into a $1 million return and ensuring her family's future. Lori’s story highlights a key lesson for anyone seeking investors: truly committing to your vision can make a world of difference. By investing your own resources and security, you show investors just how dedicated you are to your idea. When you put everything on the line, it not only proves your commitment but also makes a strong case to potential backers. If you’re all in, it’s far easier to convince others to believe in your dream, and it could be the turning point in making it a reality. Are you prepared to go all in on your entrepreneurial dreams? Grab a copy of my book, “Thinking Bigger”, at the link below to read my personal experience chasing my dream and the advice I would share to anyone starting today. https://lnkd.in/dZpQYX6D #Entrepreneurship #WomenInBusiness #Startups #Investment #ThinkBigger

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I've found that many here on LinkedIn (truly a fantastic venue) do not realize what many hard working Americans are going through. It's tough, without much light at the end of the tunnel (this is a great article from the Los Angeles Times). There's a reason why positive message posts go viral here on LI, we crave it and we need it. But think about his for a minute, LI only touches a part of our population. There are a lot of people - from all socioeconomic classes - that are not here. Especially those that are really, working all the time and not in front of a computer. These folks, when not working and looking at their phone for a break, are on TikTok - Instagram - YouTube - Meta Facebook watching video shorts of people dancing and animals as well. Or getting all kinds of BS and fake news and memes. The stuff that offers hope are usually BS 🐂 💩 hype driven opportunities that are really just MLM or some other crap. I find it is important to pay attention to everything happening, be aware of what everyone is going through, and see the entire picture. Because that is how you best find opportunity- both financial, and making a positive impact in other's lives, by creating opportunity for them to benefit, and along the way help others as well. “Do well by doing good” as good ole Ben Franklin coined.

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Team San Diego! I though you may find this as surprising as I did...we are not alone. Read this quick article from Jon Prentice's (Silicon Valley Bank) interview with with James Newell (Voyager Capital), published in GeekWire on Seattle's innovation ecosystem....they lament the SAME issues as we do in San Diego: * Lack of angel investors, (Especially, it calls out, given the local giant tech co's) * "We need low-conviction check writers." * Lack of "cachet associated with being an angel investor" - We have similar efforts (as described in the article) to drum up angel activity: NuFund Venture Group and, Interlock Capital (read the article and you'll see why the Interlock effort is tops as relates to "paying back into the ecosystem") Connect.org strives to 'connect' innovative companies with investors of all types (angel, VC, PE...) - just see "Innovation Day". Their Springboard program provides another great way for experienced entrepreneurs to give back through mentorship...as for the companies going through Springboard: "Ask for advice, and you often get $$" Your thoughts on the article or San Diego innovation ecosystem? https://lnkd.in/gfwq6mfq

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When we asked CPG founders who they wanted at Founderland... Their answer was clear: People who can help them grow their business & achieve their goals. Specifically: - The top retailers - The most founder-friendly investors, and - Other founders they can learn from and share with This conversation that I'm hosting at Founderland is a perfect representation of this group, plus one BIG bonus. We're also including Joel Toledano and ChargeUp.ai which is one of my favorite tech companies that is supporting consumer brands today. They automate the retail deduction and chargeback process for brands, saving them an insane amount of time and money. Such a cool co. Excited to teach, share and connect...and get some deals done, while of course having lots of fun. Joel Toledano Jen Zeszut Kim Coffin Deb Conklin

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Sam Bobley and I dive into the recent rate cut and how lenders can leverage AI to prepare for a busy year ahead in the latest Ocrolus blog. By automating underwriting tasks, lenders can build scalability into their processes, rather than hiring and firing to meet changing demand. It's a game changer - ping me to learn more!  #Mortgage #Lending #AI #Automation

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Excited to announce our partnership with Kyle and Evan via our investment in Two Boxes 📦📦 - a company focused on streamlining returns processing for 3PLs and self-fulfilling brands. I believe they are currently one of the most dynamic start-ups in the reverse logistics sector globally. 🌎 The importance of properly managing free returns deeply impacts ecommerce brands - especially given that online merchants currently face average return rates of 20% to 30%. Two Boxes' workflow software and hardware solution streamlines the returns process for 3PLs and brands, turning costs into potential profits. 💰 By providing deep and actionable data on returns, Two Boxes helps merchants identify fraud, improve sustainability, and reduce inventory costs. As Two Boxes becomes the returns processing hub for 3PLs and brands, our team at Assembly Ventures is excited about their potential to deliver tremendous value today while expanding into other areas like recommerce and outsourced returns services. Excited to move the world with our new friends at Peterson Ventures, Vinyl Capital , Range Ventures, and Matchstick Ventures as Two Boxes executes on their mission to make returns an asset instead of a liability. #twoboxes #assemblyventures #movetowin #movetheworld #petersonventures #siliconvalley #detroit #berlin #beyond

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🌆 San Francisco's Comeback: Tech Leasing on the Rise! 🚀 Tech is back in San Francisco—and the numbers don’t lie! After years of uncertainty, the city’s commercial real estate market is hitting milestones we haven’t seen since 2019. Here’s why the Bay Area is buzzing again: Here’s what’s happening: ▶️ Best Year for Tech Leasing Since 2019 2024 is set to be the strongest year for tech leasing in San Francisco since pre-pandemic levels, with activity reaching 3.008 million square feet so far. For comparison: 2019: 6.2 million SF leased by tech companies 2020: Just 820,000 SF leased 💀 2023: 3.078 million SF leased ▶️ AI Takes Center Stage AI companies are driving this surge, making San Francisco and Silicon Valley the top two AI leasing markets nationally in Q3: 3.9 million SF leased in San Francisco 2.6 million SF leased in Silicon Valley ▶️ Fueling Growth: Venture Capital The Bay Area’s reputation as a venture capital hub continues to buoy the market. Fun fact: 76% of all AI venture funding in H1 2024 landed here. And what’s one of the first moves post-funding? Leasing office space. ▶️ National Tech Leasing Trends Tech leasing is booming across the U.S. as well. In Q3: 9.9 million SF leased nationally — the highest in almost three years Up from 8 million SF in Q2 ▶️ Investor Confidence Returns Institutional investors are starting to take notice, eyeing San Francisco office towers for potential investments in the next 6-12 months. According to VTS, the market’s “demand fundamentals” are clearly improving. 💡 What does this mean for the future of office leasing? A strong rebound in tech demand could reshape how companies and investors view San Francisco’s potential. Let’s discuss: Are we seeing the beginning of a long-term recovery in the Bay Area office market? Share your thoughts below! 📊

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Longer leases at lower rates are becoming the new norm in the apartment rental market. This trend is helping property managers maintain stable occupancy rates amid a surge in new supply. In April 2024, the average lease term for new agreements was 12.7 months, just shy of the recent high of 12.9 months in February. Renewal lease terms also hit a notable 12.1 months, matching March's peak. In today’s high-supply environment, longer leases benefit both renters and property managers. Renters get slightly lower monthly rates, while property managers reduce the number of leases expiring in the short term, a crucial advantage in a year like 2024 with record-breaking supply levels. Interestingly, markets like Miami, Orlando, and Denver are leading the way, with new leases averaging over 13 months. Even major hubs like Los Angeles and Washington, DC are embracing this trend. On the other hand, Seattle and Sacramento stand out with shorter lease terms, both averaging just 11.9 months. #PropertyManagement #ApartmentLeasing #MarketInsights #RentalMarket

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Worth reading: The Cost of Anticompetitive Pricing Algorithms in Rental Housing What is interesting here is the shift toward coordination at scale, which Teddy Roosevelt (Republican) referenced in his new nationalism speech in Osawatomie, Kansas - on August 31, 1910. The absence of effective state, and, especially, national, restraint upon unfair money-getting has tended to create a small class of enormously wealthy and economically powerful men, whose chief object is to hold and increase their power. The prime need is to change the conditions which enable these men to accumulate power which it is not for the general welfare that they should hold or exercise. We grudge no man a fortune which represents his own power and sagacity, when exercised with entire regard to the welfare of his fellows. . . . We grudge no man a fortune in civil life if it is honorably obtained and well used. It is not even enough that it should have been gained without doing damage to the community. We should permit it to be gained only so long as the gaining represents benefit to the community. This, I know, implies a policy of a far more active governmental interference with social and economic conditions in this country than we have yet had, but I think we have got to face the fact that such an increase in governmental control is now necessary. No man should receive a dollar unless that dollar has been fairly earned. Every dollar received should represent a dollar’s worth of service rendered—not gambling in stocks, but service rendered. The really big fortune, the swollen fortune, by the mere fact of its size acquires qualities which differentiate it in kind as well as in degree from what is possessed by men of relatively small means. Therefore, I believe in a graduated income tax on big fortunes, and in another tax which is far more easily collected and far more effective—a graduated inheritance tax on big fortunes, properly safeguarded against evasion, and increasing rapidly in amount with the size of the estate. Link: https://lnkd.in/gPrYK_ni --- "Pricing algorithms may help landlords and building managers set prices that are more responsive to market conditions, which could increase market efficiency in a competitive market. But the algorithms can also facilitate price coordination, which decreases market efficiency by harming competition. Small yet coordinated landlords can act as if they are a single dominant landlord, and use their collective market power to increase profits by setting higher prices." https://lnkd.in/gVzcZbzW

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Big Fish 🐟 in a Small Pond Strategy for Airbnb Investing I recently had a conversation with Dan, whose strategy in the Airbnb market stands out. Here’s a key takeaway from our discussion: Dan’s approach is all about being a "big fish in a small pond." Instead of competing in high-demand markets with many operators, he targets less competitive areas. Dan’s strategy involves entering smaller markets with less competition, where he positions himself as a standout player. By offering exceptional quality and setting high standards, he not only outperforms local competitors but also elevates the entire market. Dan shared that even though he doesn’t always charge significantly more than his competitors, his superior occupancy rates reflect the value he provides. His success in less profitable markets demonstrates how focusing on exceptional performance can lead to remarkable results, even where others might see limited potential. Ready to become a big fish in your own small pond? Our Property Finder service can help you identify properties in markets where you can stand out and compete: http://go.strsearch.com/

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Half of renters now spend 30% or more of their income on rent and utilities. 22.4 million households are severely rent-burdened, spending 50% or more of their income on housing. Rent prices have increased by 33.7% since the pandemic began. Multifamily rental prices have grown by 2.5% over the past year, while single-family rentals have increased by 4.3% These staggering figures underscore the urgent need for action. Policymakers, housing providers, and community organizations must work together to address this crisis. I have a few ideas for solutions: 1️⃣ Increased affordable housing development — Proptech companies can utilize AI-powered analytics to identify optimal locations for affordable housing projects, streamline the development process, and optimize resource allocation. 2️⃣ Proptech platforms can implement automated rent calculation and adjustment systems to ensure compliance with rent control regulations and provide transparency to tenants. 3️⃣ Proptech solutions can facilitate secure and transparent lease agreements, automated rent payments, and efficient dispute resolution processes, empowering tenants and protecting their rights. 4️⃣ A more big-picture prospect, Proptech can indirectly support wage increases by improving operational efficiency and reducing costs for property owners and managers, potentially freeing up resources for increased wages. #MyLighthouse #Inflation #Rent #PropTech #Tenants

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🚀 Great read by James Anderson from Channel Futures, discussing how Landbase is transforming go-to-market automation for tech advisors. Bill Patchett from P2 Telecom says it best: "The agent community is generally a referral business. It starts with people you know... This is the best networking tool that I've ever been involved in." James some interesting conversations with Bill Patchett, Cary Tengler, and myself about how advisors are leveraging Landbase to build smarter lead gen engines. If you're looking for new ways to scale your business, this is worth a look. 🔗 Check out the full article here! Steve Farmiloe Joseph (Joe) Mardini

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I love the point that upgrading your cyber security is not merely a "seatbelt" protection. Companies can use the activity of protecting against threats and have the simultaneous opportunity to improve their operating effectiveness. So not only a better seatbelt, also a better car.

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