Hani Nouval, CPA, MBA

𝙀𝙭𝙭𝙤𝙣 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝘾𝙝𝙚𝙫𝙧𝙤𝙣 𝙋𝙧𝙤𝙥𝙚𝙡 𝙂𝙧𝙤𝙬𝙩𝙝 𝙬𝙞𝙩𝙝 𝙎𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙜𝙞𝙘 𝘼𝙘𝙦𝙪𝙞𝙨𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙄𝙣𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙚𝙙 𝙋𝙧𝙤𝙙𝙪𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 ExxonMobil and Chevron, two of the largest U.S. oil companies, are witnessing significant growth in crude production, particularly from the #PermianBasin and #Guyana, two of the world's most productive oil fields. This surge is underpinned by their strategic investments exceeding $100 billion in acquisitions. Exxon's first-quarter production in Guyana saw a remarkable 70% increase, contributing significantly to global demand. Simultaneously, both companies anticipate a 10% increase in Permian production this year. Exxon is poised to become the largest producer in the Permian following its $64 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, while Chevron is expanding its stake in Guyana's Stabroek Block with a $52 billion investment in Hess Corporation. This aggressive expansion positions them ahead of European competitors and underscores their commitment to bolstering oil and gas production amid global supply concerns. Despite shifting market dynamics and increased interest in renewable energy, Exxon and Chevron remain focused on fossil fuels. They leverage their robust positions in low-cost, high-yield regions to ensure profitable production and meet rising energy demands. https://lnkd.in/gGNm-3Pz

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𝙏𝙚𝙭𝙖𝙨 𝘽𝙞𝙡𝙡𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙖𝙞𝙧𝙚 𝙎𝙩𝙧𝙞𝙠𝙚𝙨 𝙊𝙞𝙡 𝘿𝙚𝙖𝙡 𝙬𝙞𝙩𝙝 𝙑𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙯𝙪𝙚𝙡𝙖 𝘼𝙢𝙞𝙙 𝙎𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝘾𝙝𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙚𝙣𝙜𝙚𝙨 Rod Lewis, a Texas billionaire and renowned oilman, through his company LNG Energy Group, has finalized a contract with Venezuela's state-owned PDVSA Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. to rehabilitate two oil fields in eastern Venezuela. This strategic move comes as the U.S. reevaluates sanctions relief to encourage a fair presidential election in Venezuela. Despite political uncertainties and the recent reinstatement of U.S. sanctions, the deal aligns with the temporary sanctions relief measures and reflects ongoing interest in leveraging Venezuela's vast oil reserves. The agreement represents a critical test of the flexibility and impact of U.S. sanctions on American investments in high-risk regions, highlighting the geopolitical complexities of international energy production and diplomacy. https://lnkd.in/gATydSXr

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𝙊𝙞𝙡 𝙀𝙭𝙚𝙘𝙪𝙩𝙞𝙫𝙚𝙨 𝙋𝙧𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙘𝙩 𝙐𝙎 𝙋𝙧𝙤𝙙𝙪𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝘿𝙞𝙥 𝙄𝙛 𝘼𝙘𝙦𝙪𝙞𝙨𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙎𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙚 𝘾𝙤𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙪𝙚𝙨 Energy executives are sounding the alarm on the future of US oil production. The latest quarterly survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, which polls around 140 energy firm executives in Texas, northern Louisiana, and southern New Mexico, reveals a growing concern about the impact of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) on oil output. 𝑲𝒆𝒚 𝑰𝒏𝒔𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕𝒔:  1. 𝑪𝒓𝒖𝒅𝒆 𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒊𝒅𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒄𝒆𝒓𝒏𝒔:    ↳ Over half of the surveyed US oil executives believe that the ongoing wave of M&A could lead to a decline in US oil production if the trend continues.    ↳ The first quarter of 2024 alone saw more than $50 billion in M&A deals, following last year’s $192 billion in deals, including ExxonMobil’s $60 billion takeover of Pioneer Natural Resources Company. The majority of these deals involved assets in the Permian Basin, the highest-producing oil field in the US.  2. 𝑷𝒓𝒆𝒅𝒊𝒄𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒅𝒖𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑰𝒎𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒕:    ↳ 48% of executives surveyed expect US oil output to be “slightly lower” over the next five years due to continued industry consolidation, while 6% foresee a “significantly lower” production.    ↳ One executive commented, “The last few years of mergers and acquisitions have decreased activity in the oil patch. The majors will not exhaust reserves to raise domestic production until supply and demand curves meet their goals.”  3. 𝑽𝒆𝒏𝒅𝒐𝒓 𝑴𝒂𝒓𝒌𝒆𝒕 𝑺𝒒𝒖𝒆𝒆𝒛𝒆:    ↳ Another executive predicted that consolidation among oil and gas operators is squeezing the over-supplied vendor market for services, potentially leading to consolidation or extensive bankruptcies among vendors to rightsize the market.  𝑺𝒕𝒂𝒍𝒆 𝑺𝒉𝒂𝒍𝒆: ↳ Despite these concerns, oil and gas production remained essentially unchanged in the second quarter. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects oil output to grow by around 310,000 barrels per day to 13.2 million this year, significantly less than the 1 million per day increase last year. 𝑾𝒉𝒂𝒕’𝒔 𝒏𝒆𝒙𝒕? If the M&A spree continues, the US oil industry could face reduced production levels, impacting supply and potentially leading to higher prices. The market dynamics are shifting, and the next few years will be critical for the industry’s future. 𝐏.𝐒. What are your thoughts on the impact of mergers and acquisitions on the oil and gas sector? Comment below! https://lnkd.in/g4je2c2h

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𝐕𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐓𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐬 $110𝐁 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐋𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐈𝐏𝐎 Venture Global LNG, a leading U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, aims for a valuation of up to $110.38 billion in its upcoming IPO, marking the first major U.S. stock market debut of 2025. The company plans to raise $2.3 billion by offering 50 million shares priced between $40 and $46 each. If successful, this would be one of the largest energy IPOs in U.S. history, rivaling ConocoPhillips’s $4.4 billion offering in 1998 and Kinder Morgan, Inc. $3.3 billion in 2011. 𝑲𝒆𝒚 𝑫𝒓𝒊𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝑩𝒆𝒉𝒊𝒏𝒅 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝑰𝑷𝑶: 𝑮𝒍𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒍 𝑳𝑵𝑮 𝑫𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑺𝒖𝒓𝒈𝒆: Rising global demand for LNG, especially in Europe and Asia, is fueling Venture Global's growth. 𝑴𝒂𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝑬𝒙𝒑𝒂𝒏𝒔𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑷𝒍𝒂𝒏𝒔: Venture Global operates five LNG projects in Louisiana, with a projected peak production capacity of 143.8 million tonnes per annum. 𝑺𝒕𝒓𝒐𝒏𝒈 𝑭𝒊𝒏𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒂𝒍 𝑩𝒂𝒄𝒌𝒊𝒏𝒈: The company has secured $54 billion in capital and generated $19.6 billion in LNG sales as of September 2023. 𝑺𝒕𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒈𝒊𝒄 𝑮𝒖𝒍𝒇 𝑪𝒐𝒂𝒔𝒕 𝑷𝒐𝒔𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏: U.S. LNG export capacity is forecasted to more than double by 2028, positioning the company for significant growth. Founders Michael Sabel and 𝑹𝒐𝒃𝒆𝒓𝒕 𝑷𝒆𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒓 will retain over 50% voting control post-IPO. The company will trade on the NYSE under the symbol "VG." What impact will this IPO have on the global energy market and LNG exports? #EnergyMarkets #LNG #IPO #BusinessGrowth #NaturalGas #GlobalEnergy #VentureGlobal #Leadership #InvestmentOpportunities https://lnkd.in/gEXMe-vK

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As global demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (@LNG) surges, Freeport LNG, America's second-largest LNG exporter based in Quintana, Texas, faces significant operational challenges. The plant has been running below 80% capacity due to persistent technical issues. Notably, it has struggled with a reduced gas intake—only 61 million cubic feet on a recent day, far below its 2.2 billion cubic feet daily capacity. This underperformance, exacerbated by a January freeze and a 2022 fire, has had ripple effects on U.S. natural gas futures, causing volatility in Henry Hub prices. The situation at Freeport LNG not only affects U.S. gas exports but also raises questions about the reliability of the current LNG infrastructure. https://lnkd.in/g4yCDwSs

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𝙀𝙭𝙭𝙤𝙣 𝙈𝙤𝙗𝙞𝙡 𝙎𝙚𝙩 𝙩𝙤 𝙎𝙚𝙘𝙪𝙧𝙚 𝙁𝙏𝘾 𝘼𝙥𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙫𝙖𝙡 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙋𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙚𝙚𝙧 𝙉𝙖𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝙍𝙚𝙨𝙤𝙪𝙧𝙘𝙚𝙨 𝘼𝙘𝙦𝙪𝙞𝙨𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 ExxonMobil's impending $60 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources Company, making it the largest oil and gas producer in the Permian Basin, is expected to receive approval from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC). The approval comes with the condition that Pioneer’s co-founder, Scott Sheffield, will not join Exxon's board due to concerns about his previous attempts to influence oil pricing and output. The decision, likely announced soon, follows scrutiny over Sheffield's advocacy for Texas oil production caps and his indirect involvement in a lawsuit alleging collusion with OPEC. Despite this, Exxon aims to boost its production in the Permian Basin significantly, from 600,000 barrels last year to about 2 million by 2027. This deal is part of a broader industry consolidation that the FTC is monitoring closely, especially under the leadership of Lina Khan and amidst political pressures related to energy prices and environmental impacts. Exxon plans to reduce Pioneer's emissions to net zero by 2035, enhancing its sustainability commitments. https://lnkd.in/gVWKJ7CD

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1 Comment

𝘿𝙚𝙘𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚 𝙞𝙣 𝙉𝙖𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝙂𝙖𝙨 𝙁𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙎𝙖𝙗𝙞𝙣𝙚 𝙋𝙖𝙨𝙨: 𝙄𝙢𝙥𝙖𝙘𝙩 𝙤𝙣 𝙐.𝙎. 𝙂𝙖𝙨 𝙋𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙚𝙨 Natural gas flows to Cheniere Energy, Inc., Sabine Pass LNG L.P. export facility in Louisiana are poised to hit an 11-month low, significantly impacting U.S. benchmark gas prices. According to LSEG data, flows are expected to decrease to 3.4 billion cubic feet per day, down from recent highs. This reduction is primarily due to decreased demand rather than planned maintenance, which is next scheduled for June 25. This decrease in export volumes has contributed to a 6% drop in Henry Hub gas prices this week. The higher domestic availability of natural gas is linked to the lower export flows. Additionally, natural gas-fired electricity generation in the U.S. has increased this year due to higher temperatures and rising power demand from data centers. Regionally, natural gas deliveries to LNG terminals in South Louisiana declined by 5.4%, while those in South Texas increased by 3.6%. The fluctuating supply levels are likely to influence international LNG prices, though Asia's spot LNG prices have remained stable this week. https://lnkd.in/g2y8k6sP

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𝘾𝙞𝙩𝙜𝙤 𝘼𝙪𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙎𝙩𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙨 𝙖𝙨 𝘾𝙧𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙨 𝘾𝙝𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙚𝙣𝙜𝙚 𝙀𝙡𝙡𝙞𝙤𝙩𝙩’𝙨 𝘽𝙞𝙙, 𝘿𝙚𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙍𝙞𝙫𝙖𝙡 𝙊𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙧𝙨 The proposed sale of CITGO Petroleum is facing intense opposition from creditors, delaying any resolution until next year. Creditors, including ConocoPhillips and Crystallex, have condemned Elliott Investment Management L.P.'s $7.286 billion bid, submitted through its shell entity, Amber Energy, arguing it fails to meet legal and financial standards. They claim the bid is a "low-ball" offer, benefiting from an unfair sales process that has blocked access to Citgo's financial data for other bidders since August. The auction process, led by court-appointed officer Robert Pincus, is being fiercely contested. Creditors are demanding transparency and reopening Citgo’s data room to solicit better offers. Gold Reserve, a mining firm with a $1 billion claim against Venezuela, signaled it could present a superior offer once financial details are accessible. Pincus, however, opposes reopening the data room before December and is pushing for court approval of a breakup fee for Elliott’s Amber Energy should a better bid emerge. This growing tension has led to a proposed new sale timeline, with the final recommendation delayed until late January and court hearings possibly beginning in March 2024. Citgo’s future ownership remains in limbo as creditors seek to maximize returns from Venezuela’s debts, further complicating a high-stakes battle to control a vital energy asset. #CitgoAuction #CreditorsChallenge #ElliottBid #EnergyIndustry #CorporateMergers #VenezuelanDebtCrisis #OilAndGas #AuctionDelays #CorporateLaw https://lnkd.in/gr3PHRQv

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Oil and gas activity in the region rose modestly in the fourth quarter of 2024, data released on Thursday by the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank showed, with most energy companies expecting to ramp up spending in 2025.

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Despite tightening Western sanctions, Iran’s oil exports reached 587 million barrels in 2024, marking a significant 10.75% increase from the previous year, with China emerging as the dominant buyer, according to United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), a non-profit organization tracking Iranian oil movements. The surge in exports highlights the regime’s growing ability to circumvent international restrictions to continue illicitly exporting oil. China’s role in Iran’s oil trade has become nearly absolute, with Chinese imports accounting for 91% of Iran’s total oil exports in 2024. The nation imported 533 million barrels, representing a substantial 24% increase from 2023, primarily driven by demand from Shandong province’s “teapot” refineries. “This year’s data trends reveal a regime that adapts quickly to enforcement measures, requiring equally dynamic responses in 2025,” notes UANI.

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Executives from oil and gas firms revealed where they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at various points in the future as part of the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey. #oilgas #energynews #oilprice

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• 7.7% distribution yield (not tax advantaged) for MLPA. • Pipelines are experiencing substantial tailwinds from increased natural gas for electricity. • Limited natural gas pipeline expansions due to regulatory constraints allow existing pipelines to operate at or near full capacity. • Existing pipelines are able to have some pricing power as pipelines are the bottleneck with substantial gas at the wellhead needing transportation to end markets. • MLPA's structure allows it to avoid annoying additional tax paperwork. You get the underlying LPs distributions but without a form K-1. #MLP #distribution #investing #ETF

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OPEC and its allies have been withholding supplies in a bid to prop up prices, but that’s seen the group losing market share to rivals including U.S. shale producers. IEA---- Global balances would flip to a surplus in the fourth quarter should OPEC stick to its plan to return production.

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What U.S. Companies Need to Know About China’s Rare Earth Restrictions Overview: The Rare Earths Monthly Metals Index (MMI) recently experienced a significant drop of 14.4%, primarily influenced by the price decline of Terbium, both in metal and oxide forms, which fell by over 16%. This market fluctuation comes ahead of China’s impending rare earth export restrictions set to take effect in October. Key Insights: 1. Market Impact: • The volatility in the Rare Earths MMI signals potential market disruptions. Companies must closely monitor these fluctuations as they can impact cost structures and supply chain stability. 2. China’s Role: • China’s dominant position in the rare earth market significantly shapes global supply and pricing dynamics. The upcoming export restrictions could further tighten supply, leading to price hikes and potential shortages. 3. Strategic Planning: • U.S. companies reliant on rare earth elements should devise contingency plans, including diversifying suppliers, increasing inventory levels, or exploring alternative materials. • Consideration of investments in domestic rare earth production or advocacy for policies supporting local mining and processing capabilities can reduce dependence on Chinese exports. 4. Industry-Specific Impact: • Sectors like technology, defense, and renewable energy, heavily dependent on rare earth elements, must evaluate their exposure and adjust procurement strategies accordingly. • Collaboration with industry peers and strategic alliances could secure a stable supply of rare earth materials. 5. Future Projections: • Staying abreast of market trends and policy changes, such as through resources like MetalMiner’s weekly newsletter, can offer critical insights for proactive decision-making. • Anticipated market rebounds before the restrictions take effect present opportunities for strategic purchases or inventory adjustments. Recommendations for U.S. Companies: • Risk Assessment: Evaluate the potential impact of rare earth restrictions on operations and supply chains. • Supplier Diversification: Identify and qualify alternative suppliers beyond China. • Inventory Management: Consider increasing inventory levels as a buffer against supply disruptions. • Policy Engagement: Advocate for policies supporting domestic rare earth production. • Innovation: Invest in R&D for alternative materials or technologies to reduce rare earth dependency.