Matthew Cohen

Investors lose $221 million in U.S. bank failure.    Yesterday, Friday April 25th, 2024, shares of Republic First Bancorp fell 60%.  The market capitalization was less than $1 million. It had started the year with a market-cap of $221 million. It was already a “problem institution” at that time. Yesterday, U.S. regulators seized Republic First Bancorp.   Insured Depositors will not lose any money thanks to the FDIC insurance of $250’000 per depositor.   They estimated the failure will cost the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) around $667 million. The bank and its depositors will be taken over by another bank, called Fulton Bank. The total assets of Republic were around $6 billion so it’s costing the FDIC around 10% of the bank’s assets.   How safe is your FDIC insured Deposit? The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was created in 1933 to assure Americans that insured deposits in insured banks are safe.  Since FDIC insurance began in 1934, no depositor has lost a single penny of insured funds due to bank failure.   To meet its guarantees to investors the FDIC holds a Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF).  As of December 31st, 2023, the DIF held $121.8 billion. Republic’s failure will make but a small dent in the DIF.   The total amount of insured deposits across all banks amounted to $10.62 trillion on December 31st 2023. The DIF is thus big enough to cover 1.15% of these deposits.   How many more banks are at risk?     On December 31st, 2023, there were 52 Institutions described by the FDIC as “Problem Institutions”. Collectively they held assets of $66 billion.    In conclusion, with total assets of $121.8 billion, that’s not a problem for the FDIC unless things get a lot worse.

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Thanks for all the quiz responses to my previous post - over 120 in total from the CF / PE community with time still to run! I agree with the majority that False is the right answer. If you want an explanation, give me a shout, I have already exchanged messages with a couple folks directly. What I will mention here though is an observation from M&A training sessions, which is those who are new to this can sometimes (understandably) be overly focussed on equity value and neglect the rest of the EV to Equity bridge from a deal mechanics perspective... We have another Q lined up for next week, and this should cause a greater split in the group with a bit of luck! #corporatefinance #privateequity #investmentbanking

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PBOC Moves A Step Closer to Yield-Curve Control The PBOC announced a new, additional daily open-market operation window (4-4:20 p.m.) today for financial institutions to deposit or borrow temporary overnight funds, with the associated rates based on spreads around the seven-day reverse repo (RR) rate -- and hence forming a new policy-rate corridor. Apart from facilitating the plan to sell CGBs going forward, as the new rate ceiling could prevent short-end rates jumping too much upon any liquidity drain (hence, essentially a yield-curve control), this could also be an intention to further nurture the 7-day RR as the key policy rate (away from the 1-year MLF rate) going forward. The asymmetric rates corridor may also reflect some tolerance for short-end rates rise in the near-term ... For the Bloomberg Intelligence react written with Jason Lee out earlier this morning, please visit the rates strategy homepage BI RATEN <GO>: "PBOC New Policy-Rate Corridor Paves Way to Yield-Curve Control" (terminal link: https://lnkd.in/gESAn2Ts). #bloombergintelligence #rates #bonds #ycc #pboc #china PBOC 7-Day RR and the New Corridor (Source: Bloomberg Intelligence)

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I see many of the CF industry platforms and portals aiding and abetting here. These deals go around like candy at a kids party. "As for Boxabl, WSJ alleges that the SEC is investigating the firm regarding “disclosures to investors.” At the same time, few “Casitas” have actually been built while shares are being sold to the public at a hefty valuation for a company with little revenue." I love this quote from Sara Hanks: “You aren’t going to get sophisticated investors to invest large amounts unless there’s a reasonable possibility of a profitable exit.” An exit, YES! #crowdfunding #startups #fundraising

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Out of complete necessity, I will host another CollinsCast 10/23 at 5pm ET to discuss $TSLA EPS before the mgmt call begins at 5:30pm. Video call link: https://lnkd.in/eEErpw_7 Or dial: ‪(US) +1 402-732-7305‬ PIN: ‪403 326 826‬# I have never seen a more confused bunch of "analysts." $TSLA is going to market with a 7.25 year-old (3) and 4.5 year-old (Y) product lineup. Old product requires discounting, and that pressures profit margins. Full stop. That is why $TSLA earnings have been consistently mediocre and margin pressure at what was proclaimed by nitwits--as recently as 12 months ago--as "the most profitable automaker in the world" is incessant. As shown in the chart below, $TSLA has LOST $550 BILLION in market cap in the past 2.75 years, which is an extraordinary diminution in value. And if you compare RELATIVE performance vs., for instance, $NVDA, or even $AAPL, which pays a dividend (something TSLA has never done,) $TSLA stock has been an absolute disaster since the beginning of 2022. But Wall Street hides that. Tomorrow, I will explain why. Join the CollinsCast.

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NEW Trader TV This Week: Ramon Baljé, head of fixed income at Flow Traders, discusses trends he is seeing in algo trading and exchange-traded funds as desks prepare for the final weeks of the year. He looks at evolving activity outside of market hours across regions, including blurred lines across market close and open, and how ETF flows are interacting with bond market liquidity. Baljé also unpacks what needs to be on trading desks’ radar coming up to year-end and going into 2025—including what he sees as the biggest game changer for European markets. This Week is supported by Cabrera Capital Markets and MTS Markets. Subscribe to the weekly show here: https://lnkd.in/ey5ZNUPn #Trading #yearend #thisweek #capitalmarkets

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It's been over a year and a half since I joined SigTech and the journey has so far has been the most professionally fulfilling of my career to date. One of the things that has stood out for me is the origin story of both our Founder and CEO, Bin Ren, and our firm. Now, for the first time, that story is told not through our website or corporate communications but directly from him. I hope you enjoy reading it as much as I've enjoyed experiencing it first hand. #KnowCodetoNoCode

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CFTC Positioning Update: More Aggressive Dollar Selling…! The CFTC Commitments of Traders report has been released, showing futures positions as of Tuesday’s (august 3rd!) close… Highlights: In fixed income, flows were pretty mixed… Specs bought 2s, ultra 10s, and ultras, but sold 5s, 10s, and long bonds… The short in ultras is now the smallest since August 2021, though the aggregate duration short actually increased slightly on the week… In FX, dollar selling remained the order of the week, most particularly against the CAD, which saw more aggressive short covering on the week… Specs also bought euros, JPY (the long there is the biggest since February 2021!), Sterling, CHF, AUD, and NZD… The aggregate dollar short increased by $9 billion on the week and is now at its biggest size ($18 billion) in more than a year…! In equities, non-commercial traders were decent buyers of S&P futures, as well as Russell and NDX. There was small selling of Dow contracts… And meanwhile, the VIX short fell… Elsewhere, there was aggressive selling of crude, while specs also sold gold and copper…

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Colleagues, with CPI data out today and Jay Powell speaking (one wonders if the market will whipsaw), here are thoughts on data-dependency. Also: Don't miss our webnar (see link) today! https://lnkd.in/gfKZkBWi #FederalReserve #stocks #trading #investing #investorrelations #economics

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📈🏢 Aby Rosen's RFR Holding is facing a staggering $2.5B debt bill as defaults pile up! 💥 🔎 According to a recent Bisnow article, RFR Holding, a prominent NYC real estate firm, is grappling with mounting debt and defaults. The company, led by billionaire Aby Rosen, has a portfolio of high-profile properties, including the iconic Seagram Building and Lever House. 🏢🏦 📊 The firm's debt load has surged to a whopping $2.5B, with $1.1B in loans maturing this year alone. 💸 The pandemic has hit the commercial real estate market hard, causing defaults to skyrocket. RFR Holding is no exception, with defaults on several properties, including the $200M mortgage on the Seagram Building. 📉 🗣️ "The pandemic has created a perfect storm for commercial real estate," said one industry expert. "Companies like RFR Holding are facing unprecedented challenges as they navigate this difficult time." 🌪️ 🔜 So, what's next for RFR Holding? The company is reportedly exploring options to refinance its debt and avoid further defaults. 💡 With the commercial real estate market showing signs of recovery, there's hope that RFR Holding can weather this storm. 🌞 Stay tuned for more updates on this developing story! 📰🔔 #RFRHolding #CommercialRealEstate #Debt #Defaults #NYCRealEstate

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Is JB Hi-Fi’s recent agreement to acquire a 75% stake in E&S Trading (e&s) a good acquisition? JB Hi-Fi’s agreed price of $47.8 million for 75% of e&s values the entire company at around $63.7 million. E&S’s FY24 revenue of $230 million and EBITDA of $7 million (a low 3% Ebitda margin), implies JB is paying a premium multiple of 9.1x. When compared to JB’s own trading multiple that hovers around 8-10 (similarly to Harvey Norman), 9.1x for e&s seems high. But, this isn’t just about JB Hi-Fi growing in size—it’s about entering the premium appliance market, which complements their existing product range and vice versa. Unlocking potential synergies in JB Hi-Fi’s infrastructure, particularly in supply chain and technology, should enhance e&s’s operations and profitability. Additionally, JB Hi-Fi’s proven national presence offers a clear path for expanding e&s beyond Victoria. With the current stakeholders of e&s holding 25% (aligning the interests) the upside for them should also be positive as the business scales nationally. My View - the makings of a great acquisition 👍 As a customer of both brands that recently renovated, I can definitely see alignment by JB taking the reigns and bringing in the customer markets of: New Build & Renovation market into the JB house. #mergers #acquisitions https://lnkd.in/gkGef2C8

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Excellent insight from Daniel Ezra. The market clearly needs the solution Entegra offers to mitigate unnecessary volatility caused by the "juniorization" of trading complex assets.

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Now with Pat out of the picture, CFO and CPO functions in the face of David Zinsner and MJ Holthaus as interim co-CEOs of Intel could see a faster adoption of AI with optimized ROI. This could see Intel stock price move higher, but how quickly will it recover the lost ground? #risefromtheashes #Turnaround #semiconductors #technology #investment

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104% month over month growth for Turnqey Labs, Inc. in November. 81% increase in ByAllAccounts logins since Wednesday of last week. Total Assets Tracked: 3,874,279.74 Average balance: $80,714 Median balance: $33,715 There’s $931,558 of staked ETH which is 24% of all value held. Staked ETH occurs across 20% of accounts, although primarily concentrated in one account with $813k. To be fair these are early numbers off of a small number of accounts, but we’ve clearly seen an uptick as the results of the election and Bitcoin approaching $100K revived crypto markets. Really proud of the team and the unrelenting effort put in the last year to not only stay alive, but thrive. Jerry Yen Amber Abdullah Lacey Shrum

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Alongside a significant bull run in crypto markets, big tech and the NASDAQ 100 have continued trending higher and observed consecutive new ATHs. However the most recent leg up for the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) has come despite of relatively sluggish from semiconductors. Philadelphia semiconductor (SOX) is flat over the last month (+0.5%) and up +6.5% in the last 3 months, while QQQ is up +7.5% the past month and +14% over the last 3 months (this performance also comes during the heat of many tech bulls celebrating NVIDIA's latest earnings). While macro conditions might look OK for big tech stocks at the moment, other areas of the equity market indicate big tech NASDAQ 100 might be quite stretched. OVOM Research, TradingView #Research #Economy #Markets #Macro #Equities

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🚨 The private credit market has exploded to over $2 trillion, but is the lack of oversight setting the stage for the next financial crisis? 🤔 The private credit market, dominated by non-bank lenders, has seen explosive growth, reaching $2.1 trillion in 2024. 📈 Institutional investors such as pension funds and insurance companies have eagerly invested in funds that, though illiquid, offered higher returns and less volatility than public investments. While it has provided valuable financing to companies, its rapid expansion in an opaque and interconnected ecosystem is raising red flags. 🚩 Key risks to keep an eye on: - Borrowers tend to be smaller and more indebted, vulnerable to rising rates 📉 - Valuations are infrequent and subjective, masking potential losses 🙈 - Hidden leverage across multiple layers makes systemic risk hard to assess 🔍 - Significant interconnectedness with banks, pensions, and insurers 🕸️ - Potential liquidity risks as retail investors enter the market 💸 While not an immediate threat, unchecked growth could lead to defaults, losses, and liquidity strains in a severe downturn, with ripple effects across the economy. 🌊 Policymakers must adopt a more vigilant approach, enhancing supervision, addressing data gaps, and implementing tighter standards to safeguard financial stability. ⚠️🔒 The time to act is now, before hidden risks in private credit markets become tomorrow's systemic crisis. 🕰️ #PrivateCredit #FinancialStability #RegulatoryOversight #SystemicRisk #MarketTransparency https://lnkd.in/d56VupNY

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