Mangesh Panditrao

#Take2 Why the Market May Be Overestimating Quick Commerce's Future Despite Damodaran's Optimism As a genuine admirer of #AswathDamodaran and his insightful #valuation frameworks, it's fascinating to see how his evaluations cut to the core of a business's #financial #health. However, with #quickcommerce, it’s possible that the broader market has overestimated the long-term potential of these businesses. Quick commerce is undeniably enticing in terms of #growth and #marketshare grabs, but as Damodaran himself has noted, the sector faces headwinds like narrow #margins and dependency on high-frequency, low-value transactions. Quick commerce relies heavily on the temporary advantage of local #logistics and #labor #arbitrage, but as cities become more congested and labor markets tighten, these operational “advantages” could quickly erode. Furthermore, the political landscape may not always be welcoming, especially given the impact on local #kirana stores, which are integral to India’s #retail fabric. While Damodaran’s framework rightly emphasizes lifecycle positioning, it may not fully capture the #political and #inflationary risks that quick commerce facilitates and faces as it scales. This could mean that valuations, even if optimistic now, might not reflect the long-term stability or profitability the street expects. One critical factor that quick commerce models often overlook is India's regional #diversity —it's anything but a #homogenous market. Local preferences, purchasing behaviors, and infrastructure vary widely from city to city. Quick commerce platforms will need to adapt to these variations, constantly refining and expanding their product categories to cater to local demands. This could mean shifting beyond the basic groceries and essentials model and embracing more regional product mixes, which further adds to complexity and costs. The sector's reliance on ultra-fast delivery and inventory optimization only intensifies these challenges, as what works in a metro city like Delhi or Mumbai may fail in smaller towns where consumer habits and logistical networks differ significantly. This makes scaling in India particularly #complex, and could limit the profitability of the "one-size-fits-all" model that quick commerce often tries to implement. All things considered, I’m confident that these companies have the talent needed to evolve. Just look at how Zomato transformed from its early days to what it is now. The real question is: what will they evolve into, and will that future model justify the premium they currently command? For now, I’ll take advantage of my exclusive offer on Coke Zero from quick commerce and enjoy it while it lasts.

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As someone who is privileged to be closely involved in the journey of several startups including Mygate, the ability to write such a blog, let alone publish it to the public shows an extraordinary longterm thinking and maturity for founders. First of all, kudos to the team on stellar execution and is the input to this blog. Secondly kudos on the courage to publish such information, for a second time now. Last but not least, I encourage all founders to write such a blog and a similar plan for the year ahead. Publishing this can be at your own discretion - private, management team, board, investors, public. Use your best judgement but write you must! It’s a great discipline to have - ideally once a quarter! Yes the first two times will be difficult, but it will soon become a “liberating” habit.

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Exciting insights into India’s evolving perfume industry with Paarth Malhotra from Mocemsa! From building a brand to consumer trends this episode is packed with value. Watch the trailer now! Here the Full Podcast : https://lnkd.in/gmpYTj9S #PerfumeIndustry #Mocemsa #Entrepreneurship

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3 of my top insights listening to Charath Narasimhan at the Wooqer Chennai #LFTG! 1. Don't differentiate between company owned stores and franchisee stores. The customer doesn't. Have the same SOPs for both. 2. Choose not just COCO employees but also Franchisee Store Managers. And pay the salary for Franchisee Store Manager, but pay it through the Franchisee. 3. Choose Franchisees who are willing to invest time, not just money. Simple but such accurate and actionable insights. Try them out for your business and do share if you have similar or different experiences.

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Retail Leaders like KIRANA KING, D-MART, RELIANCE SMART BAZAAR & others have Huge Opportunity to Multiply their Business Volumes without any Investments, but,  by Absorbing Very Small Retailers and Integrating them in their Business Models... Over TWO LACS Micro-Retailers in the Country  have shut down their Businesses with the Ongoing Retail Revolution in the Country >>> Is it not our Social Responsibility to Protect these Poor Families who were once contributing to the Society with their Sincere & Hard Work to Serve their Long Standing Retail Customers ? The Retail Leaders to Explore all Possible Avenues to Positively Engage in Counselling, Caring & Training these Micro-Retailers and to Reshape them to the Present Trends in Retail World as their Partners in Progress >>> The Retail Leaders should take this as the Spirit of Great Business Opportunity and not as any kind of Obligation... Renew the True Entrepreneurial Energies of these Micro-Retailers who are out of Business Now... "Re-Think > Re-Invent > Re-New"

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Here's one more theme that has played out over the past decade in India SaaS: SaaS companies that sell into India/Asia (non-China/Japan). There's been a reasonably large set of investors in India who have been default no in this category, based on perception of limited TAM and GTM challenges. However, there is reason to be optimistic for this theme (we are!). A reasonable set of companies in the ecosystem have scaled, such as MoEngage, Darwinbox, Capillary Technologies, Yellow.ai, Unicommerce , Gupshup, CRMNEXT, LeadSquared. Companies like Salesforce, SAP etc have reached multi-hundred million ARR in India. As a result, the potential scale from sales in India has grown from the $15-20mm that people used to talk about 5 years back to perhaps $50mm in India, overall $100mm-150mm in Asia. I think we'll see more companies continue to get funded here as IT demand in India/SEA deepens and local requirements (mobile, India Stack, regulations, languages) get addressed. Founders and investors will need to tune into this being a solid path to go but will take longer to get to impact than US/EU-focused companies. Some characteristics we see at India/SEA-facing software companies: * Many start out in SMB but then find scale & success selling into enterprises. India market has a ton of SMBs (10mm+), a relatively light mid-market and a significant set of large enterprises. * Products tend to have feature sprawl and design-deficit but this can be fixed. * Some large sectors that are pulling at enterprise level e.g. BFSI, multi-sector conglomerates. Early traction from digital native companies (but naturally capped market). * Natural to go to SEA & Gulf countries. Product could remain fairly similar but sales & marketing motion can be quite different. To get really large, feels like will have to end up going to US/EU markets eventually. * ~10 years to $100mm ARR, with market leadership in Asia * Gross margins start out perhaps 10-15 points lower than corresponding companies in the US/EU but trend up over time. * Most India-facing SaaS companies are starting as India Pvt. Ltd. today, compared to 5 years ago (versus US C-corp), with a view to going public in India at $50-100mm revenue level.

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Thanks Bismah and Inc42 Media for the insightful coverage and deep dive into the vital role of operator VCs! Bismah's thoughtful analysis underscores the growing need for operator VCs in today's startup landscape. As an operator VC , I've witnessed firsthand how founders increasingly value more than just capital. They seek partners who bring operational expertise, strategic guidance, and an extensive network to the table. These elements are crucial for driving sustainable growth and navigating the complexities of scaling a business. At GrowthCap Ventures , we understand the unique challenges faced by early-stage startups, which is why we prioritize offering not just funding, but also hands-on support and access to our extensive network. Together, we're empowering founders to realize their vision and build transformative businesses. #OperatorVC #StartupEcosystem #Gratitude

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https://lnkd.in/gMjvrgeP Amazon has significantly shaped the e-commerce landscape in India, opening doors wide for D2C brands and MSMEs to not only flourish locally but also to tap into global markets. However, embracing this rapid growth without scrutiny, as Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal aptly points out, may overlook the subtler impacts on our small-town shopkeepers who form the backbone of our local economies. The government's initiative, the Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC), proposes a counterbalance, promising a fair playing field where these smaller retailers are no longer sidelined. By connecting with the expansive ONDC network, they get the opportunity to reach customers nationwide, breathing new life into the traditional fabric of Indian commerce. This narrative isn't just about technology and market shares; it's also a story of preserving our community markets, ensuring they too thrive in the digital era. It's a vision for an inclusive e-commerce growth that respects and integrates the old with the new—a change that could redefine the marketplace for generations to come.

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Co-lead a workshop (with Sumathi my business partner and Komal lath of Tute Consult) on branding and communication and why/how its' strategic & important for the portfolio companies of an early stage growth focused PE fund in Mumbai this noon. very interactive session. lots of takeaways. one of the biggest benefits of doing such workshops with founders and CXOs of growth companies is that you get to first hand understand their pain points and priorities. which makes you realize there is a long road ahead laden with great opportunity for those in PR & comms if we take off our hats and look at it from their perspective.

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There is a very interesting report on Quick Commerce in India by RDA.team (comment for free report) where it identifies that the biggest threat for Quick Commerce Co's is Kirana Stores Disrupt Quick Commerce. I strongly believe that day will happen soon and we hope to be the catalyst KiranaPro. #quickcommerce #report #RDA #RapidDeliveryReport #Kirana #Disrupt

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Considerable shift in consumer buying behavior driven by increase in personal income. Shifting buying preferences from "personal care" to "beauty". Excerpt from latest Nykaa beauty trends report for India. Key to note how e-commerce is driving this uptick and trend.

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5 Lessons Learned from Zepto's Success In the wake of Zepto's remarkable achievement of securing $665 million at a $3.6 billion valuation to propel quick commerce, here are valuable insights for budding startups to ponder: - Rapid Delivery Demand: The upsurge in quick commerce is propelled by consumer preferences for speed and convenience. - Tech-Driven Scalability: Zepto exemplified how harnessing technology for scalable solutions can captivate significant investor interest. - Strong Market Positioning: A distinct and compelling value proposition can differentiate a company in a cutthroat market landscape. - Effective Capital Utilization: Thoughtful allocation of funds for infrastructure and market expansion is pivotal for sustainable growth. - Customer-Centric Innovation: Placing customer satisfaction at the forefront through inventive services nurtures loyalty and market presence. #QuickCommerce #ECommerce #StartupSuccess #Funding #TechInnovation #CustomerSatisfaction #Scalability #InvestorConfidence #BrandTrust #MarketExpansion #LogisticsOptimization #BusinessGrowth #TechDriven

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What are your thoughts on this? implications of #ecommerce rapid growth in #Bharat ? #D2C #socialchange We are doing something to create opportunities for smaller players. To know more or participate on the initiative, comment "know more". Growth of e-commerce in India 'matter of concern, nothing to be proud of', says Piyush Goyal https://lnkd.in/g3hBdTMa

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The Changing Face of Retail: A Call for Adaptation in India’s Small Business Sector The rise of e-commerce and a shift in consumer preferences are transforming the retail landscape in India. A recent article in Dhanam Magazine shared a concerning report from the All India Consumer Products Distributors Federation (A.I.C.P.D.F.): over 200,000 small grocery stores across India have closed within the past year. It’s a wake-up call for everyone involved in the sector. The rapid growth of e-commerce platforms, particularly in metropolitan areas, is reshaping consumer behavior. With convenient online shopping options and attractive discounts, urban consumers are increasingly turning to digital platforms, pushing traditional grocery stores into a tough spot. Unfortunately, small retailers often lack the capital to compete directly with these e-commerce giants. However, it’s not just about market share. One key reason for these closures is a broader issue: the reluctance of many small businesses to adapt to changing consumer expectations. In today’s world, customers value convenience, digital payment options, and even doorstep delivery. Small businesses that stick to traditional methods may be inadvertently limiting their potential reach. By embracing even simple tech upgrades, like digital payment solutions, inventory management tools, or social media presence, small retailers can engage better with modern customers and increase their resilience against market disruptions. The A.I.C.P.D.F. is urging the government to address the impact of e-commerce giants and protect the future of India’s small business sector. But we must also ask: how can small businesses themselves evolve to stay competitive? Let’s use this as an opportunity to discuss how traditional businesses can leverage technology for sustainability and growth. What steps do you think small businesses can take to compete in a digital-first world? [small businesses, retail industry, digital transformation, e-commerce impact, market adaptation, business sustainability, technology adoption]

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I often say Titan is the only conglomerate in India who has consistently built 0-1 scale brands in multiple categories - Titan watches, Tanishq, Fastrack, Skinn, Titan Eyewear, and now Taneira. It's not surprising that it has had only 3 CEOs since inception, with the first two CEOs having stints of 16 and 19 years respectively. They are the true heroes of India's consumer story, building brick by brick the most iconic household brands that have reshaped categories, outlasting trends and cycles. Founders and investors alike need to learn this long term outlook, the ability to think in decades and execute with discipline and patience. The game is long, and the rewards for winning the long game are beyond imagination! https://lnkd.in/gNmkMfdk

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While scaling offline distribution in GT/MT, founders should never forget the interdependence of demand and supply A brand irrespective of how good it is, won’t sell if consumers don’t find it at their preferred point of purchase And irrespective of how strong its distribution is and how widely available it is, consumers won’t buy it if the product- price-brand proposition isn’t strong enough It takes both demand and supply to fire at the same time to achieve sales There are 2 problems that can happen if brands aren’t able to maintain the balance and why sales don’t scale up a) Poor Distribution : While the product proposition is strong and the brand creates demand, but the product wasn’t available and visible in places where consumers were buying the category. This renders marketing spends useless. Distribution and visibility problems will have to be solved by sales and trade marketing teams b) Poor Demand/Pull: This is the more common and bigger problem for new brands. The products are available and visible in stores, but the product price brand proposition isn’t great (could be lack of PPCMF or brand awareness problem ) and offtakes are low. This triggers a vicious cycle. Retailers hate slow moving items with poor stock turnover. So brands that don’t sell much lose shelf space and even gets delisted from the shop. In this sales, field sales team can’t do much to influence or increase numbers. Demand problems have to be solved by product and brand marketing teams So, any brand looking to scale offline in General Trade or Modern Trade have to balance supply and demand and ensure both grow in tandem. Second chances also don’t come easy here And that is what makes it very difficult. The consumer tech equivalent of this is the difficulty in scaling 2 sided marketplaces

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CLSA published a detailed research report on India quick commerce. Recommended reading. Who will be the first to create a $50-100Bn company in India internet? #Zepto #Zomato #IndiaInternet

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Startups aren’t just about securing funding—they’re about relentless growth and adaptability. 🚀 Reflecting on Mobirapid's journey in Bangalore: Bangalore Operations: We kicked off 3 months ago. Initial Struggles: The first 15 days brought no growth, no clear path forward. Rapid Turnaround: The following 15 days were transformative as we expanded into a new B2B domain. New Office: We set up the office at Koramangla Bangalore & Shop at S.P. Road. Remarkable Growth: In just 3 months, we matched last year’s revenue with a strong margin. Key to Success: Beyond the necessary funding, our real edge came from compassion and respect for the existing unorganized players in the supply chain. This journey reaffirms that while funding is a tool, true success lies in continuous growth, adaptability, and understanding the broader ecosystem. Keep growing, keep adapting. That’s the startup journey. 💡 Anmol M. | Sushil Sharma | Anil Chhikara | Nikhil Gupta | Marwari Catalysts| Sonu Gupta| Abhishek Gupta | Rajendra Lora | Abhinav Shekhar Vashistha

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Today, we are excited to share our biggest investment as Antler, in India so far. At Antler, incl. our Elevate continuty fund (Fady Abdel-Nour, CFA), we're thrilled to co-lead a $11M pre Ser A in Namma Yatri, alongside Blume Ventures Karthik B. Reddy and Google In this business, a few times in your career, you come across a truly disruptive business model that challenges the way things have been done, and extremely obsessed founders creating a culture that is so unique, you have never seen it before. When that happens, despite all the things not clear, it’s a joy to jump on board that potential rocketship. That’s what we have seen in the way Namma Yatri is being built by Magizhan Selvan and Shan M S with (a) a disruptive business model in urban mobility, rethinking how to make the life of a driver better and (b) Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) at its heart. 46 million trips have already been completed, with >7 million registered users. For us, this is also a continuation of our commitment to investing in a future on DPI / Beckn / ONDC, started in 2022. h/t Susmit Patodia. Rajiv Srivatsa Magnus Grimeland Martell Hardenberg Teddy Himler Keerat Singh Sethi Vimal Kumar Sheetal Lalwani T Koshy sujith nair Pramod Varma

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