Malik Daley

December indigestion caused by the Federal Reserve's comments today? The S&P was humming along until the FOMC cut 25 bps as expected, and the changes to the statement were trivial (although the vote to cut wasn’t unanimous). Chairman Powell wasn’t a reassuring voice at this meeting, and the market’s confusion led to hawkish projections and speculations for 2025. The S&P 500 closed at the day's lows, -3%. Capital flow was heavy at 145%. Today's move lower in the stock market was significant. We’re below the 50-day moving average for the first time since September. We’re not oversold (yet), and we’re (only) back at mid-October levels. From a technical standpoint, the rest of December should be a race for the exits….but dip-buyers will (most likely?) do their thing. It's worked for the last 12+ years, so why stop now? Considering today’s drop is rooted in a market unprepared for a Fed that wasn’t gung-ho with spiking the punch bowl a lot more, it could mean that once investors relax and think, they won’t believe this is all that bearish. If that’s the case, watch for an enjoyable bounce back. In summary, the fundamental landscape isn’t radically altered; however, the emotional landscape temporarily is.

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In case you missed our recent webinar, the replay is available. Hear the latest from Joe Terranova and three key thought leaders at Virtus affiliates Kayne Anderson Rudnick, Newfleet, and Westchester Capital Management. https://bit.ly/4bqzEiW #investing

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Sharp increase in 6-month employment expectations for Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in November … definitively exiting slump over past couple years 

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Great read Zhiwei Ren!

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An increase in mega-cap deals, a rebound in technology, and corporate separation activity point to a healthy merger and acquisition market at the end of the first quarter. Learn more from Virtus partner, Westchester Capital Management: https://bit.ly/3xWWfVF

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An increase in mega-cap deals, a rebound in technology, and corporate separation activity point to a healthy merger and acquisition market at the end of the first quarter. Learn more from Virtus partner, Westchester Capital Management: https://bit.ly/4a6PTQS

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Back to galactic HQ for “ETFs In Depth” today in midtown Manhattan hosted by Eric Balchunas and team at Bloomberg Intelligence. Expecting typical high value industry overview, a little spice, and some drama. Typical flat landscape view of morning near Princeton NJ. Mode 2/3 today: Electric train after driving BEV from Mainline PA; final mode will be bipedal up the gritty sidewalks of 9th Ave N. Should be useful compare and contrast to yesterday’s ESG trends event as today features every RIA and hedge fund’s fav investment tool - the exchange traded fund. Hoping there’s no re-platforming the anger-attention peddlers. Like the vainglorious #financebro ego from THAT grifter ETF last year whining about shareholders at AGMs. The “complaint” was investor cares to know if megacorp was doing the work of cleaning up their pollution. [Shock! Horror!] #etf #etfinvesting #investmrnt #strategy #ria #exchanges #exchangetraded #yield #crypto

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Boston, MA – June 11, 2024 – After over 30+ years on the buy side working at firms such as Fidelity Investments, Wellington Management and two hedge funds run by former Fidelity fund managers, I am excited to announce the launch of my new website https://lnkd.in/e3SZhR3p, where I’ll have my first retail stock and ETF trading idea service.   After leaving Wellington Management in 2016, I founded Cerundolo Investment Research to provide a research product that would help both the long only and long/short fund managers, long and short ideas across U.S. and European equity markets. After a number of social media discussions on X spaces, I received requests from people looking for a retail product that would reflect the ideas that were provided to the institutional clients I was working with. After more requests, and time to figure out how to provide a retail product that would not conflict with my institutional product, I decided to launch the new site with two retail offerings. Follow the link to see what our research offering provides.  Be assured that the low-price offering is one to help give back to both young and seasoned individuals who are as excited about stock investing as I am. The ideas generated have a time-tested systematic approach, which becomes a holding in a model portfolio that is shared with clients. https://lnkd.in/enaGPYCh

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🚨 The big #privateequity boys are moving into the traditional brokerage space. KKR making a significant splash with Janney Montgomery Scott LLC acquisition announced two days ago. Note that this is not a "minority" or "aggregation" play but a straight purchase with a likely tag price somewhere between $1.5 and $2bn USD ($150bn in AUMs) The number of FINRA-registered b/ds has gone down dramatically, from over 4000 in 2014, to less than 3300 at the end of last year. Yet, you still need a b/d to custody, transact and clear for the entire Wealth Management industry which continues to expand at a rapid pace. Scarcity value anyone?

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Two thoughts: 1. This is good: "KKR will support Janney in creating a broad-based equity ownership program to provide all of the company’s 2,300 employees the opportunity to participate in the benefits of ownership after the transaction closes. This strategy is based on the belief that team member engagement through ownership is a key driver in building stronger companies. Since 2011, more than 50 KKR portfolio companies have awarded billions of dollars of total equity value to over 100,000 non-senior management employees." 2. This is less good: the 2,300 people at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC have no idea how different ownership by a mutual insurance company is to ownership by a private equity conglomerate like KKR. No idea at all. Wait until the PE "principals" show up with that new strategic plan and stratospheric operating targets required to service the acquisition debt. Some of those "benefits of ownership" will end up going to the few employees that survive the weeding process. As always with #privateequity, they will be dwarfed by the "benefits" reaped by the owners and operators of KKR.

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Although multiple factors have contributed to the #S&P 500’s positive return over the past year, an increase in P/E multiples driven by investor optimism played a considerable role. Read what our experts have to say. #economy #stockmarket

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[NEW REPORT] We are pleased to share the findings from the third annual CAIS-Mercer Alternative Investment Survey. The report uncovers insights from over 500 financial advisors exploring key themes such as current allocations across key alternative asset classes and expected adjustments over the next few years. Download the full report to discover the latest trends in alternative investing. bit.ly/49Gtprx #AlternativeInvestments #investing #WealthManagement #investments

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Treasury yields rose modestly across the curve this past week as economic data was a bit mixed. Retail Sales and Housing Starts increased while the Philadelphia Fed Survey came in better than expected. However, Weekly Jobless Claims increased, indicating that August’s Non-Farm Payroll report could be weaker than expected. Overall, the Treasury curve showed little reaction, but is still steepening, supporting the narrative of a Fed interest rate cut. Fed Speakers mostly supported the probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September. Jerome Powell mentioned that inflation does not need to reach 2% before the Fed can start cutting interest rates, while Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller sees the Fed ‘getting closer’ to cutting interest rates. Jerome Powell’s comments and other Fed speakers align with the Fed Fund Futures pricing in a September interest rate cut with probability now close to 100%. Later in the week economic data came in weaker than expected data as Initial Weekly Claims data came in higher than expected. This week survey is notable as it corresponds with the Department of Labor employment survey week and could indicate that August’s Non-Farm Payroll Report will be weaker than expected. However, by the time the report is released it will only solidify a September rate cut as August’s NFP will be released after this month’s Fed meeting. There was an underlying theme this past week in the Fixed Income Markets in regard to the upcoming US elections. Any headlines that solidified the possibility of a Trump landslide election, One-Pary rule, or President Biden withdrawing from the election was met with Treasury selling. The selling was limited but will likely be an ongoing theme. This election cycle will be definitely interesting, but any future policies of any candidate are at least six to ninth months away so this theme may not be a sustainable trading trend. Countering the upward move in yields this past week was the flight to safety bid into bonds as US equities weakened. This flight to quality bid could persist over the remainder of the summer as equity returns in August don’t have the same upward bias as July’s. On Friday equities and bonds sold off in tandem, but there was no economic data to justify the move lower in bonds and the Ten-Year Treasury yield remained below 4.27% which is an upside yield resistance level. Considering the charts, the squishy equity markets, and the weaker employment statistics, it might be time to consider a Treasury long or at the very least maintain a slightly longer duration positioning in portfolios.  

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COMING UP TODAY (Tuesday, May 7th) at 4:00pm ET / 1:00pm PT: 2024 Washington & Geopolitical Update w/Morgan Stanley Executive Director of Government Relations, David Kemps With everything going on in Washington, D.C., and the world as a whole, there are too many headlines and storylines to follow it seems. We have a massive Presidential election in just 6 months, two ongoing wars raging overseas with far-reaching geopolitical implications, tight House and Senate races which could turn the tide on taxes, entitlements, and capital markets, and civil unrest on dozens of college campuses. Lot going on at home and overseas, huh? ‌ To provide you with a summary of all the above and more in just 45 minutes, I’ve invited Morgan Stanley's very own Executive Director of Government Relations, David Kemps, for an compelling session TODAY at 4:00pm ET / 1:00pm PT. ‌ Topics include: - Current House, Senate, and Presidential outcome odds, and implications of various scenarios (sweep vs. split) - President Trump's legal situation - Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Hamas wars (with mention of China/Taiwan looming conflict) - Tax Policy and Estate Planning implications - Medicare and Social Security running out of money? ‌ Please feel free to forward to interested colleagues, friends, and family members. See you there! To register, please go to my website (https://lnkd.in/dqhcEfk) under ‘Upcoming Events' and click the link there to sign up. https://lnkd.in/eZfrV7n6

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The Private Credit sub-asset class of alternatives has grown tremendously over the past 10 years. Changes in banking regulation and allocators seeking higher yields have both fueled the growth in AUM. This was a good look under the hood of the space and how it compares the traditional credit space:

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