Joyce J. Shen

Seed VCs are turning to new ‘pro rata’ funds that help them compete with the big firms Alpha Partners, SignalRank and now SaaS Ventures help seed VCs pay for shares when big VCs try to price — or push — them out Lee Edwards, partner at Root VC, has a saying at his firm that “pro rata rights are earned, not given.” That may be a bit of a stretch since pro rata refers to a term that VCs put in their term sheets that gives them the right to buy more shares in a portfolio company during consequent funding rounds to maintain an ownership percentage and avoid dilution. Still, while these rights are not exactly “earned,” they can be expensive. One of the latest trends in VC investing these days are funds dedicated to helping seed VCs exercise their pro rata rights. https://lnkd.in/dRM3RvdA By Christine Hall

13

If you are in the VC space, you should know one of the early drivers of "Moneyball for VC". That's Gopinath Sundaramurthy, Ph.D Gopi partnered with the Kauffman Fellows Fund on implementing these concepts in their investment process. The results were staggering. 50% of the investments the fund made became unicorns. In Gopi's words 👇🏻 "We knew something was working, so we thought: Let's build this a little bigger." What did that look like in practice? 1️⃣ Gopi's firm uses a single ‘source of truth’ platform to centralize information, improving decision-making and consistency. 2️⃣ They maintain an even 50/50 split between data engineers and investors to ensure they leverage data to gain insights into teams, markets, and products. Want to learn more about what Gopi and the team at Ensemble VC has implemented at their firm? Check out the case study that our sponsor Harmonic published about the firm -->

53

2 Comments

Check out my recent post on why President Trump is the forcing function for us to solve the “Missing Middle” and catch the industrial Tsunami of onshoring coming to the US!

84

9 Comments

Key takeaways from VC Goat - Vinod Khosla podcast. - The firm cares more about working on interesting problems with large technical solutions rather than just maximizing IRR. The team is there because they believe in the mission. - Khosla assumes they've lost the money the day they invest, and then maximizes for the upside opportunity. He calls it "option value investing" rather than IRR investing. - Khosla has contrarian bets in AI (neuro-symbolic computing, probabilistic approaches), biotech, robotics, crypto, and more. - He believes aviation fuels, fusion energy, new transit systems, and other contrarian areas ignored by most investors will be huge opportunities. - Most large innovations come from outsiders, not industry insiders. Khosla looks for founders who can learn a business rapidly rather than have deep domain expertise. The Future Impact of AI - AI will be deflationary and increase productivity growth to 4% annually vs the typical 2% forecast. This will cause great abundance but also increasing income inequality. - Bipedal robots will take over most manufacturing and manual labor jobs within 20-25 years. This will free humans to be more creative and pursue their passions. - Education will shift from job training to creativity. Uniquely human elements like taste and curation will be most valued in an AI-enabled world. https://lnkd.in/gqBsmbks

66

5 Comments

Great insights shared by Dr. Christopher Haley at Startup Genome on the vital connection between a region's assets and the appropriate accelerator stage. This article underscores how aligning these elements leads to remarkable outcomes in ecosystem development. A great read for all of my friends in ecosystem development. From my personal experience I'll add that misalignment, however, can have long-lasting effects. When startup programs or organizations backed by private or public funds falter, the recovery period for regions can extend from 3 to 8 years. This delay significantly impacts founders seeking mentorship, knowledge, and funding opportunities. #EcosystemDevelopment #StartupGenome #AcceleratorPrograms #FounderSupport

14

2 Comments

This is just incredible. Neal Ghosh's demonstration of how #VentureIQ takes deeply technical and complicated content across a range of industrial use cases and ages/stages through an AI-generated conversational podcast (a la #notebookLM) is really mind-blowing. Check out his post, below, and if you haven't seen VentureIQ, yet, let's get you set up to learn more. You can visit VentureIQ.ai or DM any of us over here to book a demo!

2

Wonderful article about Emily Knight and the whole The Engine Accelerator team on the amazing work their doing changing the world with #ToughTech!

28

"Simply put, there is too much capital seeking too few opportunities, particularly at the seed stage. Multi-stage firms have eliminated pricing discipline at seed stage and the proliferation of seed firms has made the task of investing at this stage as competitive as it’s ever been, leading me to believe that indexed seed investing in today’s environment will produce poor returns. What does this mean for today’s environment? It’s never been more important to break away from median performance. While there is risk in breaking away from the pack, the risk (at least performance wise) of staying part of the herd is simply far worse. Median returns for the recent vintages are simply terrible. One could argue that funds are still in their j-curve phases, but I suspect this doesn’t explain the divergence we’re seeing between GOOD performers and GREAT performers. More than ever before, it’s clear to me that playing the same game as everyone else will not work, so fund managers should question whether they are really capable of being in the top 5% of whatever strategy they are employing. From a LP perspective, allocators should likely ask the same of their managers and consider whether allocating to indexed mega funds or indexing across too broad of a portfolio of managers is tenable in achieving their return targets." https://lnkd.in/g8GqHY-P

5

A definite worthwhile short read that succinctly explains the current profile of VC investing in a historical context. Nurturing innovation should matter to all of us, wherever we operate, so it is important that the investing community does so as well.

7

4 Comments

I couldn't agree less with this article. In my view, AI will change the world as much as, if not more than the internet did...which is a lot. '60s computer scientist Roy Amara said it best: “we overestimate the impact of technology in the short-term and underestimate the effect in the long run.” Both Altman and the author are falling victim to this blind spot, but to me, it seems far more dangerous to underestimate the impact and get blindsided by the change than it is to be slightly overzealous on estimating the rate of change. #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Technology #Innovation #cdntech [Read more](https://lnkd.in/gJWwyFZR)

9

Excited to announce Frist Cressey Ventures' investment in Qualified Health and privileged to partner w/ SignalFire, Healthier Capital, Town Hall Ventures and others!   Healthcare costs are increasing at a faster rate than ever before, with the US spending nearly twice as other wealthy countries and still ranking bottom in outcomes. It's a story you've all heard - - US healthcare is known for astronomical inefficiencies, waste, workforce supply constraints, fragmented access, appalling patient experiences, and driving patients and businesses into debt.   Yes these problems present opportunities. But opportunities are limited to the system's appetite for change, desire and incentive to try something new and the innovation available. At FCV we believe we've hit the trifecta with Generative AI. Generative AI has given us truly transformational tools in the toolkit and the healthcare ecosystem is demanding to absorb its benefits. This perfect collision of supply and demand means healthcare is poised for big change.   Generative AI is everywhere, it's buzzy, it dangles hope and opportunity. But many things need to be true for the Gen AI transformation in healthcare to take hold, such as but not limited to:   💡 Patient lives and data need to remain safe: We believe in a highly regulated and human life-touching sector such as healthcare we must ensure Gen AI can drive to unrivalled savings and improvements in the quality of care WHILE not putting patient lives or data at risk.   💡 Systems need to own their utilization of Gen AI: We believe systems will use some hybrid of external partners and homegrown solutions but importantly will want full control of data provisioning and utilization as well as the ability to solve an unlimited number of nuanced issues and not cookie cutter algorithms.   💡 Costs need to be looked at on an enterprise level: We believe the speed of innovation in Gen AI means costs will continue decreasing dramatically but at an enterprise level this will still not be a small detail. Systems will want the ability to understand costs and delegate as needed for the outcomes desired at the organizational level.   Enter Qualified.   We knew when we met Justin Norden, MD, MBA, MPhil and team we were standing in front of changemakers. These individuals have lived and breathed the true application and implementation of Generative AI far before we were asking ChatGPT to write our emails. In fact, if you’ve ever driven in a Waymo you’ve benefited from past products this team has built.   Qualified Health is on a mission to enforce governance in Gen AI, allow systems to rapidly build for their needs, monitor and make decisions for all GenAI (homegrown and external) and accelerate the value the sector can glean from these new technologies.   Huge shout out to William T., Tommaso Auerbach and Jamie Kuntz for their hard work!

240

14 Comments

It seems inevitable that as the underlying foundation models become more powerful, the LLM players will seek to justify the enormous investment that has gone into training their models by moving "up the stack", and evolve from an API or chat interface, to async agents. Regardless of whether the foundation model companies end up directly competing with you in your vertical, I believe as a B2B AI startup, you NEED to go through the thought experiment: how do I future proof my company as the underlying models progress? More here: https://lnkd.in/gkdhmVer

184

18 Comments

Lexington Books managed to release my book Disagreeing despite the Data before the election. It argues the belief segregation underway in the US may be irreversible. Today's battles over climate change, disease mitigation, and election results run deep -- they're cognitive, not just strategic. Here's the gist of it. 20th-century revolutions in the philosophy of mind, meaning, and matter uncover three surprising requirements for widespread factual agreement. Critical thinking and community building have the potential to reverse two of them -- the growing refusal to test assumptions and individual isolation. Factual agreement between groups is impossible without the third one, though -- shared projects or other meaningful interaction. And a large part of American society has insulated itself from the rest. Without shared projects, communities gradually lose the ability to tell whether they agree or not regardless of the words they use. Belief segregation with similar roots has led several developing countries to the brink of failure. We'd better watch out. The attached flyer gives a discount code that makes the book -- priced in this initial run for academic libraries -- a little more affordable. Please feel free to forward it and, if you're connected to any libraries or book stores, pass it on!

21

3 Comments

Interesting piece from Marc Andreessen on how startups are not getting the regulatory support they need to sustain America's technological leadership. "Regulatory agencies have been green lit to use brute force investigations, prosecutions, intimidation, and threats to hobble new industries, such as Blockchain. Regulatory agencies are being green lit in real time to do the same to Artificial Intelligence." While many investors themselves (both in the US and Europe) are worried how AI will change our lives, our jobs and social interactions, the top VC opinion leader thinks regulation is already too restrictive. #techstartups #techleadership #strategicgrowth

9

1 Comment

LP Tip #20 out of #50: To re-up or not to re-up A re-up refers to an LP making an additional investment in a fund where they previously invested. Before we dive in I want to share that there are reasons an LP may not to re-up which are not in your control. Here is a short list: ➡️ The LP may have evolved their strategy and needs to scale back the #️⃣ of funds they invested in.   ➡️ The LP was never set up to re-up in the first place. ➡️ The LP could be an individual that found themselves in a cash crunch and overly exposed to venture.  I'm assuming that when you got your investment that the LP explicitly told you they do re-ups. Please do not assume they do. My expectation is also that the LP dug in to properly underwrite the fund. 🏴 Re-ups are not automatic. An LP will have to re-underwrite each fund. The speed of the re-up also depends on how much work was done in the initial investment, who led the investment, level of confidence there existed when that investment was done, and current pipeline of funds. There are 4 flags that may cause an LP to walk away. 1️⃣ Partner Breakups/Changes and Team Turnover:  The biggest risk in Partnerships are whether the Partners will stay together. One LP gave me a framework on how to think through this issue that has stuck with me. Partnership is like a marriage. If one feels there is potential for a breakup, does one believe it will be an amicable breakup? Or, does one believe the spouses will never talk again? If it is an amicable split that is manageable. The Partners can find a way to support the fund. Then the question becomes whether the LP wants to back the Partner/s that remain.  If there is high team turnover. The LP will want to investigate because team stability is used as a proxy for firm sustainability and ability to scale. 2️⃣ Fund Does not Execute on what they Sold the LP:  The LP “bought” something specific and typically it is because they were missing this strategy or wanted exposure to a strategy for the portfolio they were constructing. An institutional LP will invest and write a detailed investment memo flagging all the things you said you were going to do and then go back and compare when you come back to ask for money. If for example you pitched a generalist seed stage fund and you show up asking for money sharing that you invested in deeptech at A that will cause alarm. The same can be said for the number of companies you promised to invest in or check sizes you wrote. If there are big differences LPs will want to know why. 3️⃣ Bad Actions  The fund manager/s does something that is unethical. This is a no go for an LP.  What if the situation is not clearcut? This is different for everyone and requires discussions b/w GP and LP, but most LPs don't want headline risk. 4️⃣ Continuous Underperformance  If it's early days an LP will look at some key indicators to see how you are progressing over time.

17

Here’s HBR’s take on some of the ways VC and PE firms are deploying an alternative data strategy to gain a competitive edge for their brand and portfolio: 1. Algorithmic sourcing - distilling the novel from the noisy: detecting patterns, trends, anomalies. 2. Due diligence - the old school way is often constrained by time and resources: VCs are deep diving, deploying LLMs to do a full analysis (see pharma example in article). 3. Portfolio company value creation: VCs and talent sourcing, Eg; one VC aggregated Google Scholar, GitHub, Quora, Kaggle, and LinkedIn to identify specialized talent to help assemble strong teams for their port cos to kick (and reach) their goals. Even with AI, effectively harnessing the vast amounts of external data is no small feat. Info is highly fragmented and uneven in quality, and demands dedicated resources and expertise to assess what’s most likely be useful, and navigating the thousands of products on the market. Onwards! #AI #Investing #PrivateMarketInvesting

13

2 Comments

Summary: The article discusses tech mogul Vinod Khosla and his recent success as a prominent investor. Khosla's main focus is on AI and its potential impact on various industries. He also addresses concerns regarding AI regulation and competition with Chinese AI. Key takeaways: Khosla's recent $50 million investment in OpenAI has garnered attention and success. He is passionate about the potential for AI to disrupt and improve various industries. Khosla's focus on AI regulation and concerns about Chinese AI competition. Counter arguments: Some may argue that Khosla's intense focus on AI may overshadow other important areas of technology. Critics may question the sustainability of AI in certain industries and its potential negative effects on job displacement. #ai #artificialintelligence #tech #venturecapital #vc #startups

2

Excited for DCVC portfolio co Alta Resource Technologies to emerge from stealth! The design space of biology is many orders of magnitude larger than inorganic chemistry, and Alta uses it to massively reduce the cost of extracting rare earth metals. https://lnkd.in/g_q5UwRF

70

1 Comment