Jonathan Burnston

Potential changes to U.S. government policy are only one of the challenges facing the Climate Tech sector as we head into 2025, according to Mark Daly, a BloombergNEF analyst. In his presentation on the “State of Climate Tech”, Mark outlines other concerns for the sustainability community, many of whom greeted the re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. president with fear. Not only is President-elect Trump likely to remove the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement again and reverse President Biden’s climate policies, but two other bigger concerns remain: the decline in investment into the sector and the speed and cost of new technology development. Although Mark notes that investment into energy transition (corporate & project debt and equity) reached an all-time high of $1.7 trillion in 2023, quarterly investment, which averaged $35 billion a quarter in 2022, dropped to just over $10 billion in 2024, bringing the total equity raised by CleanTech companies since the start of 2022 to $234 billion. Moreover, whereas the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite are up 30+% since the start of 2022, the main Bloomberg Climate Tech indices are down anywhere from 20% - 50% during this same period. Furthermore, the sector has struggled to attract capital. CleanTech firms accounted for ~5% of all public market funding in 2024 down from ~15% in 2022 and ~10% in 2023. Will investors reverse this trend in 2025 or will they sit on the sidelines, concerned their capital will be less impactful while a climate change denier is in the White House? Mark argues that what progress has been made in advancing climate technologies is in “simple, standardized technologies”, like batteries, solar, and wind, that are easier to commercialize and drive down production costs. However, the next generation, including: biorefining, clean industry, geothermal, long-duration storage, and nuclear energy, “are more complex and custom than prior climate technologies,” making commercialization and lowered production costs harder. Billions of capital has flowed into many of these emerging technologies, but as most have yet to achieve scale or become profitable. Will the incoming Trump Administration claw back unused capital and reverse tax breaks from the IRA? There are reasons why this might not occur, including the fact that 60% of the announced projects — representing 85% of the investments and 68% of the jobs — are in Republican congressional districts. However, to achieve the Paris Accord objectives, it is essential that bioengineering, long-duration storage, and nuclear energy achieve scale and profitability to join batteries, solar, wind as viable technologies that can be deployed in the developed and developing world. The Climate Tech community must respond strongly with capital and pressure to keep technology innovation moving forward and important policies gains from being rolled back. https://lnkd.in/gzMDpx9T

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For those curious about recent carbon markets developments, this piece by MSCI Carbon Markets on renewable energy carbon credits should be a good addition to your reading list. The authors touched on key integrity considerations for renewable energy projects—historically a key source of credits issued globally and from APAC markets—as well as how integrity gets reflected in pricing. Find out more below: http://ms.spr.ly/6049lYL7d http://ms.spr.ly/6043lSbHH

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The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market announces the first methodologies meeting its high-integrity Core Carbon Principles (CCPs). 🔍 **Key Highlights:** - Over 100 methodologies grouped into 29 categories for assessment. - Approved methodologies for destroying stockpiles of Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS), impacting 12 million carbon credits. - Approval for four methodologies for Landfill Gas (LFG) projects, covering 15 million carbon credits. 🎯 **ODS Methodologies:** - ACR’s Destruction of ODS from International Sources v1.0 - CAR’s Article 5 ODS Project Protocol v1-2 - CAR’s U.S. ODS Project Protocol v1-2 🎯 **LFG Methodologies:** - ACM0001 – Flaring or use of Landfill Gas v15-19 - AMS iii G – Landfill Methane Recovery v10 - ACR’s Landfill Gas Destruction and Beneficial Use Projects v1-2 - CAR’s US Landfill Protocol v6 🌱 **Conditions for ACM and AMS Methodologies:** - All LFG project types that do not generate electricity. - LFG-to-electricity projects with a capacity ≤ 10 MWe. CDM methodologies are under review, with the Integrity Council assessing various carbon-crediting programs. 📊 **Programs Approved as CCP-Eligible (98% market share):** - ACR - ART - CAR - Gold Standard - VCS (operated by Verra) Assessments are ongoing for Isometric, Puro.earth, and Social Carbon. 🔬 **Ongoing Assessments by MSWGs:** - MSWG 1: Improved Forest Management - MSWG 2: Sustainable Agriculture, Methane Avoidance, Nutrition/Nitrogen Management, Buffer Practices, ARR - MSWG 3: Renewable Energy - MSWG 4: REDD+ and JREDD methodologies - MSWG 5: Household Energy Demand - MSWG 6: Biochar, tech-based CCS, industrial biodigesters, and more Please get in touch if you have any needs with regards to the sale, purchasing or financing of carbon credits 🌏 #CarbonCredits #Sustainability #ClimateAction #IntegrityCouncil #VoluntaryCarbonMarket #CCP #Environment #GreenInitiatives #CarbonReduction

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We have seen a flurry of regulatory activity on the part of U.S. Agencies lately, including the Environmental Protection Agency (tailpipe emissions, coal power plants) and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (transmission infrastructure planning). All of which stand to deliver strong environmental benefits. For context, under the Congressional Review Act, Congress has 60 legislative days to review and potentially cancel a newly promulgated federal regulation. That short time window takes all its relevance with the approach of US elections. In the background, two critical cases are being heard at the U.S. Supreme Court involving another Agency this time the National Marine Fisheries Service. How is this related? They may result in a significant weakening of the Chevron doctrine, a cornerstone of administrative law guiding judicial deference to regulatory agencies' interpretations of statutes. Who ends bearing the cost for observers on herring fishing boats suddenly takes a critical importance…! https://lnkd.in/gfZuHkXw

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Emerging markets outside China need to more than double their annual energy transition investment to be on track for net-zero emissions by 2050. BloombergNEF estimates these low- and middle-income economies require $69 trillion across the coming decades, spread across everything from solar and wind power to electric vehicles. That works out to $2.6 trillion per year, on average, between now and mid-century.

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This is for read carefully. https://lnkd.in/eA8tXyTP

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What does the new Transition Pathway Initiative (TPI) State of Transition Report tell us: 1. It tells us that we should be optimistic that change is possible: Since 2020, the share of companies with long-term (2050) emissions targets aligned with 1.5°C has increased from 7% to 30%. 2. It tells us that investors can exert influence - in particular through initiatives such as Climate Action 100+ - on company practice and performance. 3. It tells us that we have long way to go, with the majority of companies still well short of having a strategic approach to climate climate change, and with none of the companies assessed having a detailed, actionable transition plan that aligns business practices and capital expenditure decisions with decarbonisation goals. 4. It tells us that policy is key and that investors need to redouble their engagement with policy makers to encourage appropriate and urgent responses to the systemic risk that climate change poses. The report also reinforces the importance of independent, objective and rigorous research to provide us with the data and evidence we need to assess the state of transition. David Russell, Adam Matthews, Simon Dietz, Carmen Nuzzo, David Harris, Jaakko Kooroshy, Dan Gardiner, LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group), Transition Pathway Initiative (TPI) , Robin Goon, Valentin Jahn, Robert Black https://lnkd.in/e-3vGvzt

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🌍 The CFTC’s recent guidance on carbon credit derivatives is a signal of what’s next for the voluntary carbon market—more transparency, better liquidity, and an evolving role for financial instruments. As these markets mature, businesses will need more than tools—they’ll need the right education to make smart, sustainable decisions. At Offset Atlas, we’re piloting a course designed to do just that—help participants build market literacy and position themselves for success in the evolving carbon market landscape. Through this pilot, we’re also learning from: - SMB sustainability teams exploring their first carbon credit purchases - Corporate buyers refining their portfolios with high-integrity credits - Project developers seeking strategies to design projects that align with market standards 📊 Your input matters—and so does your participation. We’re now selecting participants for our exclusive pilot course, and we’d love for you to apply. ➡️ Apply today through the survey on our landing page: OffsetAtlas.com

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EXCERPTS: A group of energy majors operating in Asia-Pacific has announced guidelines expected to accelerate carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects and related trade across the region. The Asia Natural Gas and Energy Association (ANGEA), in partnership with the Boston Consulting Group, on Wednesday in Tokyo issued recommendations for companies and countries to seal deals regarding CCS, which could become a technology for the region's net-zero ambitions. "The [new] framework outlines options informed by lessons learned from Europe and North America, as well as international standards and protocols," Paul Everingham, chief executive of ANGEA, told Nikkei Asia in Jakarta before the event in Tokyo. "We envision our framework as a resource for governments to reference when negotiating cross-border CCS arrangements." Some high-emitting countries -- Japan, South Korea and Singapore among them -- have the capacity to capture CO2 but lack sufficient geological formations for storage, driving moves to establish partnerships that will allow their emissions to be transported and stored elsewhere in the region. On the other hand, countries that have plenty of reservoirs like depleted oil and gas fields -- such as Indonesia, Australia and Malaysia -- are eager to tap this opportunity. FULL REPORT (https://lnkd.in/gTPZDF28). Scott Eaton

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Our researcher looked into the question of hydrogen.

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Highly recommend delving into the article, authored by IFC Vice President Hela Cheikhrouhou, for a comprehensive look at the crucial role methane emissions play in climate change. During our recent visit to Astana in late April, our delegation had the opportunity to meet with Mr. Yerlan Nyssanbayev, Minister of Ecology and Mineral Resources and Ms. Zulfiya Suleimenova, Advisor to the President - Special Representative of the President of Kazakhstan on International Environmental Cooperation, and representatives of industry players. Throughout our discussions, we observed a genuine interest in collaborating to address Kazakhstan's methane venting emissions. These emissions currently amount to around 39,000 kilotons (kT) of CO2 equivalent from venting and 2,000 kT of CO2 equivalent from flaring annually. Click the link to learn more about this pressing issue https://lnkd.in/e99zJbrV

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Carbon markets are critical for climate finance - but we need real change to make them robust and scalable. Come and join the Global Carbon Market Utility and be part of the solution!

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EXCERPTS: China’s two-decade long campaign to reform its power sector to ensure a stable supply of electricity nationwide, mostly with fossil-fuel fired stations, while also meeting carbon reduction goals with renewables appears to be at something of a crossroads. The key to achieving the reform goals — providing a balanced, secure, clean, and affordable energy mix — lies with integrating new energy generation capacity like solar, which has seen explosive growth in terms of installed capacity in recent years, into the national grid and a market-based power trading system. But despite some initial success, as the government has moved to lift state-set power pricing, some new energy providers are now struggling to participate due to fluctuations in their supply, despite massive increases in production capacity, presenting a major challenge for policymakers. The imbalance in supply between traditional coal-fired thermal generators and new energy providers has major consequences for the nation’s electricity grid. The imbalance between capacity and output can be illustrated by actual utilization rates. For example, while solar accounted for 21% of China’s total installed power capacity at the end of 2023, its share of generation was just 3% of the total, even with a 28% year-on-year increase, “reflecting the abnormally low solar capacity utilisation rates,” according to a January report by the Australian based think tank Climate Energy Finance (CEF). Wind power was 11% of total generation, the report showed. “Among the challenges are a lack of price responsiveness to demand and supply shocks, difficulty in integrating non-fossil fuels, and underdeveloped ancillary services markets that are needed to ensure flexible power production and storage capacity,” according to an international Monetary Fund (IMF) report on China’s reforms published in February last year. The crucial part of building the power market system is the development of a spot market and encouraging renewable energy providers to participate in trading so that a more accurate power pricing mechanism can be formed, industry experts said. COMMENT: I've been extremely impressed with China's power grid development which is now second to none from it's Ultra High Voltage (DC) Electricity Transmission (e.g. efficiently distributing power generation from China's west to east) to an increasing focus on power storage (e.g. Tesla's Megapack: https://lnkd.in/g_GBt6fA). However, promises for having a nationwide trading network seems to be slipping. Like other "markets" in China (e.g. equities, fixed income, commodities, etc.) there is still far too much control. While we don't espouse a Western "cowboy" style system (I had direct interaction with Enron immediately after its demise and got a sense of its Death Star business (https://lnkd.in/gR5DJTYV)), we do pitch the "Bird Cage" (see attached).

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It's all in the article but we hope the government sees little need to lower the auction floor price. Certainly based on previous comments where they have a strong desire for the ETS be left alone to do its work means precisely that. As I've stated previously on more than one occasion, if the ETS is left to work its way through the next 6 to 12 months, should see prices revert back towards the 2025 floor. One point that officials should consider, is running auctions on a more regular basis - perhaps up to 10 a year - monthly from January to October. The volume would be easier to clear and not create the situation where an insurmountable amount gets created. Personally - I think it would make for a better sync between the spot and futures market. Food for thought and interested in your comments and feedback on that.

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➡ The open carbon protocol partners with Kita to elevate trust in carbon credit issuance New York Climate Week highlighted the need for greater collaboration and the pooling of expertise across the VCM in the service of swifter, more impactful progress. Kita's announcement with OCP directly reflects this need and represents a step in the direction of a more transparent, trustworthy and efficient carbon market. 📕 Read the full press release here: https://lnkd.in/dRsP7iFK #carboninsurance #carbonmarkets #vcm oneshot.earth

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One of the key elements to accelerating the transition is organizing new constituencies invested in the net-zero economy. The launch of the U.S. Green Bank 50 is therefore a major milestone in making the transition durable, effective, and organized!

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International Energy Agency (IEA)'s 2024 World Energy Outlook underscores the critical need for historic investments in renewables, energy storage, and other clean energy solutions to reach net zero. This report is a must-read for anyone committed to a sustainable future. #NetZero #RenewableEnergy #SustainableInvesting

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This is what carbon markets are about. Helping reach climate goals and in parallel moving money to projects that need funding, often in poorer countries. Great. Thanks Chris Leeds for reposting. #VERs #efficiencies #sustainablechange #sustainability #sustainablefinance

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We get infrastructure finance moving and multiplying – accelerating climate action and sustainable development where most urgently needed. In this interview with Clara Amorim, CEO Valahu Philippe talks about the CLEAR fund, an Africa-focused climate fund focused on climate mitigation and adaptation.

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