Jay Li, CFA

Rapid sector rotation happening in the US market. India continues to be resilient while some Asian markets are under pressure. I talk about these topics in my recent discussion with CNBC-TV18

17

1 Comment

SMH VanEck Semiconductor Index YTD +52.5% Major Holdings: Nvidia 25%, TSM 13%, Broadcom 9%, Qualcomm 5%, Micron 5% The semiconductor sector, which has been riding high on AI optimism, are expected to falter on growing concerns about the long-term demand outlook for semiconductors and weak demand from China. Its a SELL call today, for a minimum 15% downside. NVIDIA Qualcomm TSMC Broadcom Qualcomm Micron Technology ASML Applied Materials Texas Instruments Lam Research Analog Devices AMD KLA NXP Semiconductors Samsung Semiconductor #SMH #vaneck #msci #SOXX iShares Diversified Alternative Products Trust

8

1 Comment

You should listen to Nathan Geraci and I leverage VettaFi sentiment data to talk #ETFs for ‘25. But it’s ok to read the recap Nicholas Wodeshick from the show too. . - Use case for defined outcome, structured protection, and covered calls from NEOS Investments Calamos Investments Innovator ETFs® - Growing interest in CLOs and bank loan #ETFs from Janus Henderson Investors Invesco US Panagram BondBloxx - #Dividend strategies from SS&C Technologies and ProShares - Plus Ben Johnson, CFA commentary Zachary Csillag Troy Cates Tim Urbanowicz, CFA Andrew Nelson, CFA Matt Kaufman, CETF® Frank J. Tirado, MS Jessica Fernandez Michelle DeWitt, CIMA® Rob Stewart Danielle Gilbert Christopher Murphy Paul Baiocchi, CFA Steve Munroe JoAnne Bianco, CFA Joanna Gallegos Colleen Kapoor Cole Feinberg

14

“An unintended consequence of US export controls on advanced chip technology to China may be a wave of state-backed investment leading to overproduction and, potentially, Chinese dominance of global legacy-chip production,” researchers wrote. Yes. That is *precisely* what will happen. When this nonsense started, the chip sanctions on advanced nodes, I made the point that the military does not typically use such chips. They employ systems that have long design lives, that must meet military specifications. These are typically older chips, sometimes *really* old. What we have in the West is a total bullshit spin-cycle of ignoramuses driving the development of policies that were destined to be self-defeating from the very beginning. This is how the West dies by its own hand. It dies through terminal stupidity. It does not have to be this way. We have plenty of intelligent scientists and engineers who can tell these nincompoop think-tankers to just "piss off". They are the greatest danger of all to our collective prosperity. https://lnkd.in/gv9c7b9n

3

Thanks for having me Eagle Alpha team and for allowing me to share Vanda Research's tactical macro approach, as well as our latest insights on retail flows. #tacticalmacro #investing #retailflows #flowsandpositioning

46

1 Comment

We were asked this morning for our thoughts from on Medline Industries, LP filing for an #IPO and what this portends for the sector and the broader IPO market in 2025? "Medline sets stage for blockbuster US IPO with confidential filing," by Reuters reporters Niket Nishant and Manya Saini. QUOTED EXCERPT "A rebounding IPO market would be a major boon for long-in-the-tooth private equity investments and continuation funds seeking exits and capital returns," said Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital. 🐣News of IPO deals emerging across multiple industries strengthens our faith that the listing markets will meaningfully reopen in 2025; this is something we started commenting on to our clients and watching carefully as a possibility earlier this year as then candidate (but now president-elect) #Trump's poll numbers rose. 🩺Medline is an indicator of this in the healthcare and medical supply space, selecting Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to lead the IPO less than four years after its massive $34 billion leveraged buyout during the pandemic. 💵A revival in the IPO market would significantly benefit mature #PrivateEquity funds and continuation funds seeking to exit #investments and return capital to their limited partners. 🔁Sufficient capital returned could even catalyze a fresh cycle of PE fundraising and business acquisitions. Also quoted in the article was Angelo Bochanis at Renaissance Capital. ~~  Running Point, “we are your family office”™ #estateplanning #uhnwi #investing #taxes #multifamilyoffice #wealthmanagement #economy ~~ Disclosure: The opinions expressed are those of Running Point Capital Advisors, LLC (Running Point) and are subject to change without notice. This is not investment advice and this is not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. Running Point is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Running Point’s investment advisory services and fees can be found in its Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. RP-24-220

27

5 Comments

=> The U.S. labor market report produced a knee-jerk reaction among major FX – but MXN, COP, BRL, and ZAR are bucking the trend => MXN clearly likes the idea of a stronger growth in the U.S. Further, President Sheinbaum continues to send orthodox policy signals (including the post-election fiscal adjustment), and there is now a possibility that parts of controversial judicial reform might be revised => BRL/COP/ZAR’s outperformance is even more interesting – Domestic factors still getting noticed? (chart’s source - Bloomberg LP)

13

"Nvidia's reinvention has paid off: on June 18, 2024, the company surpassed Microsoft to become the world's most valuable company, at a market capitalization of $3.3 trillion. It reached that milestone on the back of the immense demand for its AI chips; the company's stock price had tripled over the previous twelve months.To call Nvidia's stock a historically, good investment is to understate things. Between its IPO in early 1999 and the end of 2023, Nvidia investors enjoyed the highest annualized compound return for any U.S. stock in history through a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 33 percent. If an investor had purchased $10,000 of Nvidia stock when it made its market debut on January 22, 1999, that stock would have been worth $13.2 million on December 31, 2023." -- Tae Kim, The Nvidia Way

22

1 Comment

🚢 Celebrating the Successful Launch of Taiwan's First Shipping-Themed ETF with Nomura Asset Management Taiwan! 🎉 Congratulations to the entire team at Nomura Asset Management Taiwan for the successful launch of the Nomura Global Shipping Leaders Income ETF — Taiwan’s first ETF focused on the global shipping industry. This innovative ETF is powered by the NYSE FactSet Global Shipping Leaders Income Index, a benchmark tracking global leaders in maritime logistics and transportation across oceans and waterways. With a focus on delivering sustainable income, this ETF opens up new opportunities for investors to gain exposure to a vital sector driving global trade. 🌍⚓ #ETFs #GlobalTrade #Shipping #thematicETF #FactSet #NYSE

43

Check out my macro notes just released:) Some interesting insights from the Snb and Norges decisions today along with thoughts on the S&P 500's outperformance in the last month against global asset classes. Enjoy:) https://lnkd.in/gcaEFYje

4

Despite the recent Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) reports being lauded as "strong" and "solid," a critical underlying metric tells a different story. The Implied Hiring Rate has actually plummeted in the last two NFP reports, exposing a glaring disconnect between surface-level praise and deeper labor market dynamics. Is this time different?

8

For someone managing general Japan equities or a global portfolio it may be time to take a look at Japan's semiconductor production equipment space. Senjin Capital has a much more focused strategy, so this is not one for us, but it does look interesting. There are some real industry leaders in this group, maybe some compelling opportunities to bottom fish here? What are your views? Lasertec in particular is a real fallen angel, and trading at a low prima-facie valuation now for a company that has a monopoly in its segment.

20

1 Comment

In the latest issue of Moelis's Clean Technology Monthly, we highlight what's in focus this earnings season in the sector, examine the rapidly growing U.S. data center market and take a closer look at why the transformer industry is poised for growth. We also sit down with the CEO of Budderfly to discuss challenges and opportunities as an EaaS company, and the future outlook for using technology to transform energy management, reducing costs and emissions. Click to learn more about Moelis’s dynamic advisory practice: https://bit.ly/3M0xnQC #CleanTechnology #Sustainability #EnergyManagement #DataCenters #GridModernization #EarningsSeason

1

BMO SIA FOCUS NORTH AMER EQUITY ETF & BROADCOM INC. ZFN.to #ETF units are up 22.6% Year to Date, compared with a gain of 13.92% for the S&P 500 Index and a gain of 3.53% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index so far in 2024. At the end of May, the largest weighted sectors within the fund were Information Technology, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Energy. Today’s featured holding, Broadcom* Ltd. (AVGO) has been consistently held in the fund since January of 2023. It has been in the news this week around the announcements of quarterly earnings and a 10 for 1 stock split. Click the link for full report: https://lnkd.in/gJQREw3P

1

1 Comment

Recent survey from NABE shows significant uptick this year in % of respondents saying primary challenge will be trade uncertainty … attracting/retaining quality workforce has declined significantly as a challenge 

19

Is the U.S. Economy Stronger Than We Think? At Yale's recent CEO Caucus, 84% of top CEOs expressed optimism, predicting a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy. Surprisingly, 81% were taken aback by the economy’s resilience, despite widespread pessimism in public polls. With inflation dropping and unemployment at historic lows, real wages are growing, and GDP surpassed expectations. CEOs agree: the economy is outperforming the gloomy forecasts. What’s your take on that? Source: https://bit.ly/47Sds0i

21

Moelis acts as Exclusive Placement Agent to Archer, electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft developer, on its $430 million common stock PIPE in conjunction with the announcement of a strategic partnership with Anduril Industries. #CapitalMarkets Press release: https://bit.ly/3BhRjwT

9