James Wong

The (Healthcare) Ground Beneath Our Feet… This year it is likely that over $10 billion will be invested in the digital health sector – a robust amount, no doubt, but inconsequential when compared to the amount of capital tied up in healthcare real estate assets, which is estimated to be $1.2 trillion by Jones Lang Lasalle. Of that amount, approximately $790 billion is in the hospital sector while the remaining $490 billion is in medical office assets. It is estimated that there are 48.6k facilities with 3.4 billion square feet of healthcare real estate, 42% of which are owned by REITs and another 33% held by other private investment vehicles. Much of the digital health investment is meant to make the physical healthcare infrastructure more productive: greater operating efficiencies, greater patient throughput, more relevant personalized care models with better outcomes. As the healthcare system is being pushed to be more distributed to lower cost sites of care, accelerated now by the rapid proliferation of automation and AI capabilities, the potential impact on healthcare infrastructure assets will be profound. Thoughts on what that might look like... https://lnkd.in/eTfAdUbS #digitalhealth Flare Capital Partners

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Hot take on a lot of early-stage digital health companies out there: You're not a tech company. Most tech-enabled care companies I've seen over the past two years are only tech-enabled in the sense that they use telehealth as their delivery mechanism for care. There are exceptions to this, of course - companies who build computer vision and applied AI tools to better the doctor-patient experience, companies who build tooling around risk scoring and stratification to enable more personalized medicine, companies who build truly novel intakes to better route patients to the appropriate care, etc. These companies have real technology chops and, if they sell it right to the market, can get credit for this from investors. But if you're truly a telehealth provider, you need to realize now that the goal post has shifted dramatically from 2021 and you're going to be valued at maturity at something like 3x EBITDA. That's profit. Not revenue. Throw a revenue multiple out the window. That's not the world we live in if you're a virtual doctor's office. Think of how that impacts venture math. If you're raising a seed round at $15M post-money (or $12M pre-money), it means you'll have to generate something like $150-200M in annual EBITDA to be a fund returner for your seed investors. Maybe even more with dilution, since telehealth businesses are not traditionally capital efficient and will likely need to raise material additional capital to reach that scale. You need to be ridiculously profitable (probably on $800M-$1B in annual revenue since you're likely going to be a 40% gross margin business). Here's the good news: you can set yourself up well (and probably be a contrarian founder relative to your peers), by talking about EBITDA growth and how you can grow into a fund-returning outcome based on realistic mature market comps. This will stand out for the investors you're pitching, even at the early stage. This is how you can beat the malaise of the tech-enabled care market. Focus on the right metrics and the right type of growth. You don't have to have all the answers (no founder does), but you need to make sure the ship is headed in the right direction. A focus on profitability for "tech-enabled care" (*ahem* telehealth) businesses is a good first step.

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Excited to announce Frist Cressey Ventures' investment in Qualified Health and privileged to partner w/ SignalFire, Healthier Capital, Town Hall Ventures and others!   Healthcare costs are increasing at a faster rate than ever before, with the US spending nearly twice as other wealthy countries and still ranking bottom in outcomes. It's a story you've all heard - - US healthcare is known for astronomical inefficiencies, waste, workforce supply constraints, fragmented access, appalling patient experiences, and driving patients and businesses into debt.   Yes these problems present opportunities. But opportunities are limited to the system's appetite for change, desire and incentive to try something new and the innovation available. At FCV we believe we've hit the trifecta with Generative AI. Generative AI has given us truly transformational tools in the toolkit and the healthcare ecosystem is demanding to absorb its benefits. This perfect collision of supply and demand means healthcare is poised for big change.   Generative AI is everywhere, it's buzzy, it dangles hope and opportunity. But many things need to be true for the Gen AI transformation in healthcare to take hold, such as but not limited to:   💡 Patient lives and data need to remain safe: We believe in a highly regulated and human life-touching sector such as healthcare we must ensure Gen AI can drive to unrivalled savings and improvements in the quality of care WHILE not putting patient lives or data at risk.   💡 Systems need to own their utilization of Gen AI: We believe systems will use some hybrid of external partners and homegrown solutions but importantly will want full control of data provisioning and utilization as well as the ability to solve an unlimited number of nuanced issues and not cookie cutter algorithms.   💡 Costs need to be looked at on an enterprise level: We believe the speed of innovation in Gen AI means costs will continue decreasing dramatically but at an enterprise level this will still not be a small detail. Systems will want the ability to understand costs and delegate as needed for the outcomes desired at the organizational level.   Enter Qualified.   We knew when we met Justin Norden, MD, MBA, MPhil and team we were standing in front of changemakers. These individuals have lived and breathed the true application and implementation of Generative AI far before we were asking ChatGPT to write our emails. In fact, if you’ve ever driven in a Waymo you’ve benefited from past products this team has built.   Qualified Health is on a mission to enforce governance in Gen AI, allow systems to rapidly build for their needs, monitor and make decisions for all GenAI (homegrown and external) and accelerate the value the sector can glean from these new technologies.   Huge shout out to William T., Tommaso Auerbach and Jamie Kuntz for their hard work!

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This 👂 podcast episode and insight’s from a16z Bio + Health's Julie Yoo spoke so clearly to the fundamental challenge facing both 🩺 clinicians and 🏥 healthcare systems.  There is a huge disconnect between supply, in the availability of clinicians, and demand, in the increasing volume and complexity of healthcare needs. -     36% of physicians plan to reduce their hours next year according to the AMA -     48% of physicians reported feeling burned out in a 2024 Medscape survey At the same time, the demographic baby boomer bubble and steady increase in the prevalence of major chronic disease, which consumes up to 90% of healthcare expenditures according to some estimates, is driving demand. With this context, Yoo points to a major opportunity for AI adoption in healthcare in 2025. Yeah, a VC hyping a wave of new AI companies that will replace the decades of training and experience of clinicians, the skeptic would say.  But Yoo is thoughtful in pointing to the role AI can play, and is already playing, through solutions such as ambient, autonomous scribe solutions (of which local star Abridge is leading the pack) in not replacing, but freeing up productivity for clinicians. There is so much unstructured context in both the complexity of disease and treatment options and the social/emotional considerations that we shouldn't be looking for AI to *replace* clinicians. But companies are getting better at finding the structured, repetitive and time-consuming places where AI tools can *help* clinicians. Nearly two-thirds of doctors cited bureaucratic tasks as the leading contributor to burnout. Rigorously trained-AI driven solutions can be a force multiplier for clinicians, and I’ve seen several interviews where nurses and doctors go as far as to say some of these solutions are ”restoring their joy in practicing medicine”. Our health is precious; and we rightly want any technology engaging with it to be developed thoughtfully and thoroughly tested. This requires top AI talent and diverse and realistic training data. Pittsburgh’s strengths in both areas is why we are an emerging hub for data-driven healthcare. #AIinhealthcare #clinicianburnout #healthinnovation #digitalhealth

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Alot of bad actors and a few good actors. $2.5T HC capital raised & $1T invested by PE in last decade. $31B in 2013 vs. $217B in 2021. We know the story. Misaligned incentives - unrealistic multiples, short-term profit focus, aggressive cost-cutting, unrealistic scaling, misunderstood market dynamics, just to name a few. However, our industry needs money. But our industry is more infrastructure asset class than tech start-up (James Nicholls gave me that epiphany). Mic drop on the lyrical genius of Alex Fair of MedStartr Ventures as he literally gives the whole story poetic justice as he reads HIS POEM on this "On The Road at VIVE" episode of The Reverse Mullet Healthcare Podcast w/BP2 Health. This is the perfect episode for a Friday afternoon! He and Paulo J Machado donned the actual reverse mullets and joined us back in February at #VIVE2024 to talk about the need for REAL change in healthcare, startup focus and investor expectations. It was one to remember and one that is in desperate need of a full-length follow-up episode. Give us a like and a watch or a listen https://lnkd.in/e4w4mjkv https://lnkd.in/egmK3kMB

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Someone broke down the estimated costs of a $15 Sweetgreen salad. We need these cost graphics for digital health to help future founders. Especially for tech enabled cos, the greatest cost is labor. Much of the "value created" is in curation and matching, which means the gross margins are reliant on labor arbitrage. Pay someone $X, but get paid $X+Y% per visit. The challenge with healthcare is that you often have to pick one of two business models: 1. specialized, low volume, high cost, low gross margin % 2. generalized, high volume, low cost, high gross margin % I'd argue founders should focus on gross dollars over the lifetime of the customer (like Jeff Bezos said) instead of gross margin %'s, but we'll leave that for another time. The challenge is that many tech enabled digital health cos have high cost of goods sold (labor) and moderately high product, design, and engineering budgets. We must build differentiated solutions for patients, clinicians, and clients to be out incumbents, however, we're realizing that companies are ultimately valued on the discounted value of future cash flows. And the high SG&A costs at most organizations might be inbalanced to the unit economics of the business. I'm not sure the math pencils out for everyone unfortunately. But I'm just a guy on the internet, would love to hear the thoughts from those smarter than I (you!). Comment below. --- p.s. I have no idea the accuracy of the graphic and not an investor in Sweetgreen. Cheers. Credit: David Crowther

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I’m worried about the state of venture capital and direct-to-consumer (DTC) healthcare startups. Hims & Hers is the poster child for DTC healthcare at $1.2B proj 2024 revenue and a $3.6B valuation. By most accounts, they have been an outlier success for DTC since bottoming out in May 2022. So why is this bad news for DTC healthcare? Because the market leader (Hims) trades at a 3x forward revenue multiple. And the category leader typically gets a higher valuation multiple than smaller startups. We see this phenomenon in private equity. They “roll up” smaller companies within the same category at a lower multiples just to create one larger platform that trades at higher multiples. Now back to DTC healthcare startups. If Hims commands a 3x revenue multiple, it’s not unrealistic that smaller, unprofitable startups may be valued 1-2x revenue at exit. At 2x revenue, a startup must generate $500M to produce a $1B exit in today’s market (depending on growth and profitability). Series A/B venture capitalists must see a pathway to $1B outcomes. And if the growth-stage investors with billions under management are less interested in DTC healthcare, the future funding rounds necessary for fueling growth are not guaranteed. Juxtapose this against 2017-2022 where DTC could raise Series B-E funding. Let’s take a DTC startup doing $25M after 3-4 years of operations and has already raised a Series A. By most accounts, it would be a phenomenal accomplishment. But today, investors will question the chances of that same company scaling from $25M to $500M revenue in the next 3-4 years with unknown future funding sources from Series B and beyond. You're stuck in VC-funding purgatory. Some of these companies will shut down. Some may sell for 1-3x revenue. And some may try to transition to profitable, cash-flowing businesses. All of which are certainly not the venture-backed goal the founders, investors, and employees often had in mind when first taking capital. I say this all with friends working at or starting DTC healthcare companies, I feel bad for them. I also feel bad for the patients who enjoy those products or services. To caveat (b/c I know people will object), there will be other DTC brands that exit for $1B+ (i.e., Ro). However, they were forged and scaled during a different time period where seemingly endless venture capital was available for DTC healthcare. Now we're in a different time with no end in sight. Thoughts?

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I recently sat down with Michael Batko, CEO at Startmate and Founder of Puddle Pod for Episode 11 of Insane Ambition. Startmate has invested in 230+ startups, much of it under Michael's leadership, and now has $3.5b in value across its portfolio companies. In this episode, we discussed: - Michael's journey from consulting, then living in the Amazon rainforest, to leading Australia's biggest startup accelerator - The future of Australia's startup ecosystem - The labour government's very stupid plan to make it harder for people to qualify as sophisticated investors (now thankfully shelved) - Startmate City! Startmate's plan to build Australia's first startup city. Probably the most ambitious idea I've ever heard from a startup accelerator. - The balance between visionary thinking and traditional startup advice (think Elon Musk's plan to colonise Mars, vs Y Combinator's problem/customer obsession) - "The Courage to Be Disliked", and its influence on Michael's approach to life and business. Links in the description below 👇

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Platforms are in, point solutions are out as the healthcare AI category leaders come into focus this year. In conversation with Shelby Livingston at Endpoints News, I shared: 1. Why AI-first companies have the greatest platform potential and heuristics for identifying these opportunities at the earliest stages, 2. How companies are differentiating through co-development and distribution partnerships with leading healthcare institutions, and 3. Strategies for navigating anemic budgets and constrained market sizes through business model innovation such as AI-enabled services and pay for performance models Read more here: https://lnkd.in/dJWqv_zC Bessemer Venture Partners Abridge #healthcare #lifesciences #AI #generativeAI

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Some VC investors believe that brick and mortar - referring to a physical presence of some kind - should be avoided at all costs. Yet, the track record of clinic and hybrid care businesses in health care indicates otherwise. ==> One Medical (sold for $3.9 billion to Amazon), Oak Street (bought by CVS for $10.6 billion), Lifestance (IPO at $7.5 billion market cap), and PE-backed Premise Health (acquired by OMERS Private Equity for $1.1 billion) If a clinic is indicated as the optimal way to deliver care for that patient population, there are creative ways to build and operate them. Full article below with advice and strategies on how to build and operate hybrid clinics from my teammate Anarghya Vardhana from Maveron, Amir Dan Rubin from OneMedical Group, Steven Eidelman from Modern Animal and more!

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To my amazing network - I am thrilled to announce the launch of Pave Health Ventures, an early-stage venture fund dedicated to broadening access to healthcare and improving the overall well-being of our communities. I’ve been very fortunate in my healthcare career. As the Founder & CEO of MedPilot, we capped off a seven-year journey with a successful exit when we were acquired by Vytalize Health. For the last three years, serving as Chief Innovation Officer, I’ve had the honor to contribute to the remarkable growth at Vytalize, impacting the lives of hundreds of thousands of patients by enhancing the quality of care they receive. I am immensely grateful to Matt Buder Shapiro, not only for being the perfect partner and co-founder but also for being an incredible friend. Additionally, I extend my heartfelt appreciation to Faris Ghawi, Amer Alnajar, and Jordan Brown for their outstanding leadership and for broadening my perspective on the significance of value-based care. This journey has not only provided me with industry expertise but has allowed me to cultivate invaluable relationships and an incredible network. As I embark on this new chapter, I am profoundly grateful to be supported by top executives and thought leaders in the investment, wellness, and healthcare industries. Within the healthcare ecosystem, we are represented by key stakeholders from health systems, insurers, governmental organizations, retail health businesses, provider groups, and value-based care organizations. At Pave Health Ventures, we believe the timing couldn't be more opportune to help support health-focused startups. With the growing prevalence of illness and chronic health conditions impacting our communities, consumers and key Healthcare Stakeholders are increasingly prioritizing proactive and preventative care. This shift in focus is fueling demand for technology, products, and services aimed at improving health outcomes, unlocking trillions of dollars in growth potential within the healthcare landscape. Pave Health Ventures is all-in. We are actively seeking solutions that tackle the root causes of illness, manage chronic conditions, and optimize care and care teams. Please support us in our mission by opening your networks and introducing us to amazing founders and entrepreneurs. Together, let's help pave the way to a healthier tomorrow. Jacob Myers

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The biggest topics in healthcare last year? The two Gs. GPT and GLP-1s. We’re continuing to innovate our GLP-1 care track, which includes personalized care from care teams supported by AI tools, that can help maximize outcomes for someone on a GLP-1. And what’s to come? I expect this year we’ll see: ⭐ Measuring digital health programs will shift (check out Omada’s VOI report for more on this) ⭐ Consolidation in the market - not all digital health companies will survive ⭐ An uptick in PBM and health plan partners to help employers offer GLP-1s with sustainable coverage plans Anything I missed?

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Anne Wojcicki, CEO of 23andMe, has announced plans to take the genetic testing company private. This strategic move aims to provide more flexibility in navigating regulatory challenges and to accelerate growth opportunities. The decision follows a trend of health tech companies seeking private ownership to focus on long-term objectives. Wojcicki highlighted the importance of this shift to maintain the company's commitment to innovation and customer-centric services. Taking 23andMe private reflects a bold step towards enhancing its position in the rapidly evolving genomics industry. Read more about this exciting development here: https://lnkd.in/gdrC3a64 #genomics #IPO #privatisation #23andMe

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Should you sell your practice to a VC-Backed MSO Startup? tldr: - new VC-backed startups are forming MSOs to roll up independent practices - The pitch is physicians receive early liquidity from the roll up and are granted ESOP shares that can be used for retirement - Problem is the use of ESOPs with independent practices is not a new concept and has been used with large group practices since the 70's - ESOPs do not grant full ownership and in order for the shares to be valuable for retirement, the practice needs to run the same if not better post roll up - With VC-backed startups being primarily operated by non-physicians with zero clinical or medical practice experience, the likelihood of this happening is extremely low making the entire concept high risk However, there is a viable path for continued ownership + liquidity for independent practices. Check out the article to learn more. ⤵ https://lnkd.in/gmGvTYwP

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One of my proudest moments as an investor occurred today as Alaffia Health announced its series A because it shows how the Aperture® Venture Capital vision of multi-level, multi-generational #impactinvesting is succeeding in the marketplace. Here’s the model in its most basic form : ✅As diverse fund managers with meaningful capital to allocate, we are changing the VC landscape every day just by doing our day jobs. ✅As Black/Brown investors with ~40 years experience collectively, Aperture GPs have access to talent /excellence that others do not, so our portfolio *organically* is more inclusive by race, gender and geography even while optimizing for financial outcomes (all about the alpha). ✅Our most successful portco’s are using financial #innovation to solve market problems that impact underrepresented demographics and underserved communities. Alaffia Health is a shining example of the impact portion of our overall fund thesis, and we couldn’t be prouder of TJ Ademiluyi and Adun Akanni, MPH, PMP - the dynamic brother-sister founder duo whose vision we have steadfastly supported on their journey. Congratulations to TJ and Adun from William Crowder and myself, as well as the whole Aperture team- Marjorie King Philip McKenzie Yves Louis-Jacques Tanvi Lal Michelle Dhansinghani Lisha Bell Katie Kelly Amy Chung Cindy Chong, CFA Brian Fernandes-Halloran Monroe France Jayden Pantel Darren Herman Evan Wladis Neal Triplett Thomas Scriven Peter Ammon Irina Bit-Babik Tim Milanich Rob Rahbari

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Two of healthcare’s most-funded startups raised well over half a billion dollars—then shut down this year. So, does raising big bucks really lead to success? 🤑 SignalFire‎ teamed up with FierceHealthcare‎ to take a closer look at the 20 most-funded #HealthTech startups and the 20 largest recent HealthTech funding rounds. The top 20 #HealthTech startups raised $16.8B+ collectively. Where’s the money going? We unpacked: 📈 How #AI is driving a surge in funding for improving efficiency and outcomes. 💣 Lessons learned from flameouts like Olive and Forward Health. 🚀 From telehealth to value-based care, see how these startups are transforming healthcare—and what it takes to thrive. Check out the article from Heather Landi at Fierce Healthcare‎, who covers insights from YY at SignalFire's Health & PharmaTech practice below, and Danielle Z. on our data science team👇 Congrats to my former team at Devoted Health, who is at the top of this list, and our portfolio companies Ro, Grow Therapy, Color, PayZen on raising successful rounds!💸🎉 #Healthech #VentureCapital #Startups #AI #PharmaTech #Healthcare

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Redesign Health has launched its largest fund to date, securing $175M to support over 20 new healthcare startups. Founded in 2018, the venture builder has previously incubated more than 60 companies, including Scriptology and Vivid Health. The new fund aims to address challenges such as healthy aging, interoperability, and expanding sites of care. This funding underscores investor confidence in tackling the $4T healthcare market's persistent challenges.

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