Jason Healey

An update on what’s going on with methamphetamine & opium drugs industries in Afghanistan by David Mansfield and Alcis Geo is here: https://lnkd.in/ey2ZtwdY. With the ephedra harvesting season now complete and opium poppy planting in full swing, it is a good time to assess the impact of the Taliban drug ban on both of these industries, the implications for the rural economy & the political stability of Afghanistan. There are currently some fascinating dynamics at play and much to monitor as we go forward into 2025 and see to what degree the Taliban's ban on narcotics continues to hold or fractures.

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How do policy failures lead to technology failures? In Episode 4 of the Policy Chats series Technolgy vs. Government I talk with former CPUC Commissioner Catherine Sandoval and technology policy expert Patrick E. Lanthier. We look at how a failure to keep policy current with technology and a lack of a regional and jurisdictional technology policy approach lead to a catastrophic result. UCR School of Public Policy Emerald Publishing University of California, Riverside #GovTech #TechnologyVsGovernment #UCRPolicyChats

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Anne Applebaum's latest book, "Autocracy Inc.," sheds light on the growing threat posed by the surge of autocratic regimes worldwide. From Russia, China, and Iran to semi-autocratic nations like Hungary, Turkey, and India, the book paints a chilling picture of a networked global kleptocracy adept at leveraging oppression, misinformation, and money laundering to solidify power and profit from their positions. The book highlights our alarming economic dependence on autocratic nations, exemplified by the gas trade between Russia and Germany. It underlines how such dependencies compromise our sovereignty and corrode our values and institutions over time. While the book doesn't delve into health matters, it issues a stark warning to our industry. We are too dependent on "Autocracy Inc." countries for some health technologies and commodities - remember the desperate international scramble face-masks, the military lockdown of vaccine factories and the desperate recruitment of healthcare professionals? We share sensitive health technologies and research with them in the spirit of scientific endeavour, without clear controls or accountability. However, this reliance on "Autocracy Inc." countries for critical health technologies and resources raises questions about the wisdom of such interdependence. During the pandemic, I was made painfully aware of how dependent we were on these countries. I saw how, under weak US leadership, democratic countries failed to collaborate, damaging important relationships. I saw how countries like China misled the world on key issues like the origins and spread of the virus. The consequences hit us hard. Health is a strategic asset that nations should curate and protect. This book prompts reflection on whether we should reevaluate our strategic priorities and safeguard our health assets more vigilantly.

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I wrote in The Diplomat about the risks of miscalculation over Taiwan posed by PLA command structure disruption, the contradictions of a hawkish Trump cabinet but anti-intervention Trump, and ongoing PLAN drills. You can read it here: https://lnkd.in/erCFts72

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Is it too early to say, "told you so Reuters and BBC News?" I believe that the Israel's IDF deserves an apology from all news media loudly and dishonestly broadcasting Hamas propaganda with little or no context. I simply point out Reuters and the BBC because I used to recommend them to others. I know longer read either and may, never again. I guess that the United Nations, after months of honest criticism, has reconsidered much of their previous behavior. Don't get me wrong, no civilian casualties are the optimum. This is not possible on any level in the environment that the IDF operating in, within Gaza. While like most, I disagreed with too much use of the 2,000 lb. bombs/ bunker busters, by all global standards, the majority of IDF operations have been well-within the bounds of international law. Bunker busters are the perfect, air delivered weapon for adversaries buried stories underground in tunnels. This combined with Hamas' insistence on keeping innocent Palestinians in place as human shields and Bibi's intent to prosecute this war that helps his far right administration's base, have been the perfect storm of tragedy in Gaza. On the other hand, Putin's desperation before the GOP cut off support to Ukraine and that drove him to seek diversions from his disaster in Ukraine, like Israel, central Africa, Serbia and Armenia, is partly to blame as well. Iran, the "hitman" for Putin in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, did all possible to enable Hamas to butcher Israelis on Oct. 7th. They still do.

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An interesting summary of how joint ventures can be a good strategy in #GovCon, but they can also go very wrong. https://lnkd.in/ehGVrSVY ASCE Publishing #ACE #JVs #risk

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A heads up if you are exporting any goods from the US.... The primary information source for government export information, export.gov has a new url... and there are no links to the new page. (If you aren't using it, you are missing out--it is a great resource.) https://lnkd.in/eZfbmCJE #water #science #business #trade #export #environment #regulatoryaffairs

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Updating a policy is one part careful analysis to identify opportunities for improvement and two parts ensuring that all the administrative matters in place. Generative AI can help tremendously with the latter, but also with the former. LIGER will level up the LMI Way of Policy!

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Improving FOIA should have been at the center of a 5th #OpenGov U.S. national action plan in 2022, but this White House chose to prioritize equity plans & commitments over restoring transparency & accountability in accord with the mandates of Congress & the petitions of civil society advocates. https://lnkd.in/eXC3PP76 The ongoing lack of oversight of FOIA in Congress is paired with an appalling lack of oversight of open government and US participation in the Open Government Partnership: https://lnkd.in/gz3CEuvy

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Read #BoozAllen Civil Sector President Rich Crowe's perspective on how federal agencies can fully leverage their #data to advance mission outcomes. https://lnkd.in/ejdpcDbG

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Here's a twist on hotspots policing I think worth revisiting. The Philadelphia Predictive Policing Experiment was one of the largest RCTs to study the effect of targeting patrol cars to predicted grid areas (maybe the biggest?). Recently, the International Association of Chiefs of Police kindly published a three page summary of the study (thanks Megan Stoltz!), so here is a couple of lead-in graphics and the #Police_Chief three page summary of this U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs (OJP) #NIJ funded study. More details (and the main results paper at https://lnkd.in/ebxqU-wB). With thanks to Philadelphia Police Department, Kevin Thomas and his crew, and of course the inimitable Kevin Bethel.

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Just published: H-Diplo|RJISSF Roundtable Review 16-21 on Rachel E. Whitlark's _All Options on the Table: Leaders, Preventive War, and Nuclear Proliferation_. Cornell University Press, 2021. https://lnkd.in/eq5PjWZn    Introduction by Matthew Fuhrmann, Texas A&M University Reviews by Debak Das, University of Denver Raymond Kuo, RAND Corporation Sanne Cornelia J. Verschuren, Boston University Response by Rachel Whitlark, Georgia Institute of Technology   From the introduction: Rachel Whitlark’s _All Options on the Table: Leaders, Preventive War, and Nuclear Proliferation_ brings together two critical areas of international relations research: nuclear politics and the role of individual leaders. After the Cold War ended, many historians and political scientists turned their attention away from nuclear weapons—and even, for a few years, from international security more generally. During this period, the study of leadership in international relations was also largely dormant, as most scholars focused on structural forces or domestic institutions. More recently, both areas have seen a revival in scholarship.[1] Whitlark’s book is notable for making key contributions in both domains, teaching us much about the intersection of nuclear politics and leaders. The book explains when and why world leaders consider and use military force to stop the international spread of nuclear weapons. This issue is certainly timely. For more than 20 years, policymakers in Israel, the United States, and elsewhere have called for preventive strikes against Iran to delay Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Yet we have seen variation in the intensity with which leaders have pursued the military option. The United States and Israel have taken various actions against Iran’s nuclear program, including the Stuxnet cyberattack, but neither has launched conventional airstrikes. With a focus on the beliefs of individual leaders, Whitlark’s book helps us understand why the situation has played out in this manner. All Options on the Table has much to offer: a compelling argument; a well-thought-out qualitative research design; substantial archival evidence; and key implications for theory and policy. The reviewers of this roundtable highlight the book’s many strengths. Sanne Cornelia J. Verschuren writes that it, “deserves praise for identifying a precise set of beliefs that determines leaders’ preferences for preventive war.” Debak Das underscores that “the book adds depth and nuance to the literature on leaders and their role in international security outcomes.” Echoing this sentiment, Raymond Kuo states, “the book does what all great social science should do.”...

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Excellent analysis and a very common structural problem (desperately needed governance, politically incentivized intransigence instead of reasoned debate, legislative failure, and institutional atrophy) in at least the US. I’ve started calling it paycheck-to-paycheck government.

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In this "AdamSmithWorks" The Great Antidote #podcast, Juliette Sellgren asks me why I think #industrialpolicy and #protectionism undermine #nationalsecurity. We also talk about my American Institute for Economic Research - AIER white paper “A Free, Prosperous and Secure America: How Trade Liberalization Strengthens US National Security, and Economic Nationalism Undermines It” (2024). #economics #economicpolicy #tradepolicy #internationaltrade #foreignpolicy #foreignaffairs https://lnkd.in/ewRqn7_Y

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🔍 The Double-Edged Sword of Intelligence: Navigating Double Agents and Disinformation 🔍 As a former intelligence officer, I understand the critical importance of source validation in safeguarding against infiltration and disinformation. The recent revelation by the F.B.I. regarding the severing of ties with informants linked to Russian disinformation underscores the perpetual challenge faced by intelligence and law enforcement agencies worldwide. 🕵️‍♂️ The F.B.I.'s internal review, conducted in 2020 and 2021, led to cutting ties with several informants and issuing warnings about dozens of others. This decision was made in response to concerns that these informants, some of whom had provided information about Russia-aligned oligarchs, political leaders, and other influential figures, were linked to Russian disinformation. This review came at a crucial time, during and after the 2020 election, amid heightened fears of Russian meddling and the looming threat of Russia's potential invasion of Ukraine. See the New York Times article here: https://lnkd.in/eGK_-Khb 🔍 Double agents, and dangles represent a persistent validation issue, posing a significant threat to the integrity of intelligence operations. Whether longstanding or newly recruited, any source could potentially be a plant by another intelligence agency or a hostile group. These individuals are strategically deployed by foreign intelligence organizations to disrupt and damage the reputation of the agencies they infiltrate. ⚖️ In navigating this complex landscape, agencies must remain ever-cognizant of the risks posed by double agents and dangles, continuously refining their vetting processes and adapting their counterintelligence strategies. The F.B.I.'s actions highlight the delicate balance between leveraging valuable human intelligence and mitigating the risks of disinformation, particularly in regions like post-Soviet countries where alliances are fluid and opaque. As we confront evolving threats in an increasingly interconnected world, vigilance and diligence are paramount in preserving the integrity and effectiveness of our intelligence services. For more insights into intelligence and national security, visit https://lnkd.in/g5gfQZ_7. #Intelligence #Counterintelligence #NationalSecurity #SourceValidation #DoubleAgents #Dangles #FBI #Security #LawEnforcement

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Espionage in U.S. Academia: An Underestimated Threat U.S. universities, known for openness and collaboration, are facing growing risks from espionage. Foreign actors, especially China, exploit exchange programs and research partnerships to access sensitive technologies. Through programs like the Thousand Talents Plan, students and scholars collect data supporting China’s military and industrial sectors. How Academia Became a Target The U.S. government partners with universities for military research, dispersing projects across multiple schools to minimize risk. However, strategically placed individuals can access multiple programs and compile valuable data. China’s strategy relies on "non-traditional collectors" like students and researchers, who gather minor insights that become significant when aggregated​ Federal Bureau of Investigation ​Foreign Policy Research Institute .Additionally, academic openness complicates security. Universities resist strict protocols, creating blind spots for foreign influence. Cultural exchange programs and foreign-funded research partnerships often seem legitimate but can mask hidden agendas​ CSET ​The Cipher Brief .Challenges to Detection and Prosecution Efforts to address academic espionage, like the DOJ’s China Initiative, faced backlash for profiling concerns and were scaled back in 2022. Many cases involve non-disclosure violations, making prosecution difficult. This highlights the complexity of balancing national security with academic freedom​ Foreign Policy Research Institute ​CSET .Proposed Solutions Stricter Vetting: Enforce background checks and require disclosure of foreign affiliations. Intelligence Collaboration: Work closely with agencies like the FBI to monitor risks. Controlled Access: Implement need-to-know policies for sensitive projects. Transparency: Disclose foreign funding sources and partnerships to identify risks. Some experts advocate restricting access to high-risk fields, but this must be weighed against academic freedom. The goal is to protect intellectual property while promoting innovation​ The Cipher Brief .Conclusion: Securing Innovation Without Stifling Growth Academic espionage is a growing threat, but the right safeguards can protect institutions without stifling innovation. With vigilance and transparent policies, U.S. universities can maintain global leadership while securing sensitive knowledge. Sources FBI – China: The Risk to Academia. www.fbi.gov Center for Security and Emerging Technology – Expanding Restrictions on Chinese Students. cset.georgetown.edu Just the News – Chinese Nationals and Academic Espionage. www.justthenews.com Foreign Policy Research Institute – China Initiative's Impact on Academia. www.fpri.org The Cipher Brief – Academic Collaboration Risks. www.thecipherbrief.com

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The most critical responsibility for BIS is protection of our national security. Most of what they do necessarily involves saying no -- which is hard when the rest of the Commerce Department is focused on creating economic opportunity. But good government is dynamic government and so the Department is always refining rules to make sure that we can both promote America's economy and protect our national security. And yesterday, that's exactly what we did - working with the National Space Council and the Office of Space Commerce, BIS released three new rules that will reduce regulatory requirements for parts of the space industry, allowing the industry to continue to grow, without sacrificing our national security.

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The bipartisan Promoting Responsible Evaluation and Procurement to Advance Readiness for Enterprise-Wide Deployment (PREPARED) for AI Act, introduced by Senators Gary Peters and Thom Tillis, aims to establish safeguards for federal agencies in contracting for, and the purchase and deployment of AI systems. The bill mandates risk assessments before procurement and sets guidelines for government use, including pilot programs for testing AI solutions. It requires transparency, data security, and protection of civil rights, with chief AI officers overseeing implementation. This legislation builds on existing frameworks like the Advancing American AI Act and Biden’s AI executive order. A notable supporting organisation includes Transparency Coalition.ai, which seeks AI transparency to ensure it does not compromise public safety or privacy. Similar measures exist at the state level in California. US Homeland Security & Government Affairs - (PREPARED) for AI Act - https://lnkd.in/eaJ748HM #responsibleai #ethicalai #ethics #aiethics #aitransparency #transparency #rights #privacy #security

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