Ilya Strebulaev

Here’s a question investors are often asked: When evaluating early stage companies, how much time do you spend on due diligence around future exits? It’s not surprising we hear this question a lot. Also not surprising: it’s got a wide range of answers depending on the firm. Some don’t spend much time here at all. Others make it a point to put meaningful time in as part of their process. Our current thinking: take the time to do the work on public market comps. At Alpaca VC, we spend significant time understanding how public market investors will  realistically value a business based on margin profile, product, business model & TAM. In short, we want to know: how will this company be valued at scale when we get taken out? Yes, we can acknowledge that the journey toward exit is a windy road and that there may be pivots along the way, but there are still public market companies that have a business model similar to the early stage company you're evaluating. And you can always look at gross profit multiples if you think the margin profile will change over time. So we still do the work on the comps. Quantitative metrics we look at when making the comparison to public market comps include EBITDA multiple, revenue multiple, Gross Profit multiple or all of the above. As part of this process, it’s also important to factor in the public market company’s year-over-year revenue growth as this will also significantly impact the multiple it trades at. Simple example: if you have two public market companies with similar business models and similar margin profiles, but one's growing 100% year over year, and one's growing 50% year over year, then obviously the DCF (discounted cash flow) analysis is going to spit out a very different valuation for the one that's growing faster. Why this matters: When you take all of that information into account as you evaluate an early stage business, you can begin to create a realistic picture of how this company will be valued in the public markets at exit - or how an acquirer will value the company for an acquisition. Strategic acquirers may, of course, pay a premium, but we won’t underwrite for that. This allows us, for example, to form conviction around valuation based on revenue and gross profit predictions. If we think they can do $100M of revenue five years from now, we use this diligence process to form a thesis about whether the characteristics above (product, margin, business model, etc.) will cause the company to be valued at $200M vs. $500M vs. $1B at exit. Curious how other early stage investors think about underwriting an exit and how much time they’re spending on public market comps even though these companies are in their infancy.

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Insightful breakdown from my great Partner Omri Amirav-Drory on the simple factors that really separate the top 1% of investors from the rest, and how more operators should become investors! https://lnkd.in/gEiZdT2h

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"Editors note: Welcome to issue #2 of Transcriptions. Today, we’d like to present a conversation between Qasar Younis of Applied Intuition, and Bilal Zuberi of Lux Capital. We discovered Qasar recently, and find his focus and clarity of thinking to be admirable. What follows is a lightly edited transcript of their talk, first held at the Paklaunch forum." Link to transcipt: https://lnkd.in/gH4uBmPE

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At Kearny Jackson, founders constantly ask us what we look for in founding teams. I’m sharing the rough framework that my partner, Sriram Krishnan, outlined to assess founders as a pre-seed/seed investor. This is also how I judge whether someone is “biased for action” or “biased for thought.” I get along well with the former and not the latter, but that’s a story for another day. Level 1 - Speed of communicating Whether by text or email. Quick turnarounds, “acknowledged receipt” types of folks. Not being speedy is not necessarily a bad sign; it can also mean they’re busy or don’t care about you or your email. Usually “closes the loop” and, most importantly, tries to leave no email unresponded. Level 2 - Speed of rewriting deck or memo Founders who pitch one version of the deck and share an updated version after the pitch the same day with slides that address the questions asked during the pitch. Or founders that iterate on positioning and strategy quickly based on input and ship a new version of a deck within days. Some founders use a static deck when presenting (i.e. the same deck for weeks on end), but some are more dynamic and change/pivot/edit when new information or tactics come to light. Level 3 - Speed of talking to or onboarding design partners Founders who not only speak to 50-70 potential prospects within a short time frame but also ones who onboard X design partners very quickly. I’ve seen some founders pitch an idea in week one and sign up four design partners in week two. That’s pretty impressive regardless of what is being built and shows they can execute. Level 4 - Speed of shipping new code, new features, new products, or new pivots This is the holy grail. This is what every early-stage investor means by execution velocity. In the world of early-stage startups, the big fish don’t eat the small fish. The fast ones eat the slow ones. And how quickly you ship code represents how efficient or productive you can be in a resource-constraint environment. All investors would preferably want to see how founders execute with code, but (A) founders don’t always have product during the seed/pre-seed rounds, eg. figma designs, mock-ups, ideas, etc (B) so investors have to rely on other signals to decipher whether you can execute on 4 so levels 123 above will hopefully inform them on that.

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Key takeaways from VC Goat - Vinod Khosla podcast. - The firm cares more about working on interesting problems with large technical solutions rather than just maximizing IRR. The team is there because they believe in the mission. - Khosla assumes they've lost the money the day they invest, and then maximizes for the upside opportunity. He calls it "option value investing" rather than IRR investing. - Khosla has contrarian bets in AI (neuro-symbolic computing, probabilistic approaches), biotech, robotics, crypto, and more. - He believes aviation fuels, fusion energy, new transit systems, and other contrarian areas ignored by most investors will be huge opportunities. - Most large innovations come from outsiders, not industry insiders. Khosla looks for founders who can learn a business rapidly rather than have deep domain expertise. The Future Impact of AI - AI will be deflationary and increase productivity growth to 4% annually vs the typical 2% forecast. This will cause great abundance but also increasing income inequality. - Bipedal robots will take over most manufacturing and manual labor jobs within 20-25 years. This will free humans to be more creative and pursue their passions. - Education will shift from job training to creativity. Uniquely human elements like taste and curation will be most valued in an AI-enabled world. https://lnkd.in/gqBsmbks

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I've participated in 100+ conversations with venture fund LPs this year. The most frequently discussed topics include: Team dynamics Sourcing differentiation Decision-making and selection process Portfolio support Sector thesis Track record Model and deployment strategy Network Long-term vision Timing (why now) References Fund infrastructure and reporting

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ex Google CEO Eric Schmidt spoke at Stanford this week. Lots of nuggets here, but most interesting for the near term, Schmidt believes in the next year AI is set to make a big leap forward. He predicts AI will combine three important features: 1. Vast knowledge retention (1 million token models) 2. Text-to-action capability 3. Personal AI agent fleets While the full impact is unknown, everyone may soon command their own AI teams. Here's an example: Imagine you're developing new quantum computing algorithms. Your AI assistants could: - Continuously scan and synthesize global quantum research papers - Generate novel algorithm ideas based on this knowledge - Simulate and test these algorithms across various quantum architectures - Automatically document findings and prepare draft papers - Identify potential collaborators and draft outreach emails All initiated by a command like "Advance our quantum algorithm research." This could dramatically accelerate R&D cycles and scientific breakthroughs.. https://lnkd.in/eJbg6cnD #frontiertech #AI #futurefrontier

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Worth listening to . . . If #AIinSupplyChain is a topic you care about. It’s a topic I covered weekly for my column at FreightWaves for 6 months. There’s much more to discuss than first meets the eye.

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I recently saw this metric from Carta’s 1Q24 VC Fund Report, which is very concerning. DPI... is nowhere to be found in earlier vintages that probably should start showing DPI. Funding early-stage projects is great, but ultimately, these venture dollars need to exit their investments and pay back their limited partners. That’s where the metric Distributed to Paid-In Capital (DPI) comes in. While managing a fund, we get interim measures during the life of the fund (e.g. IRR, MOIC), but ultimately, “you can’t eat IRR.” If you want to build a lasting venture capital organization, you need to start showing DPI for your fund. Keep in mind that this is traditional VC data from Carta, and is not strictly crypto venture. Crypto venture tends to get liquidity earlier (tokens) and things tend to go parabolic sooner (faster, more unicorns) - but I’d wager that the data here is somewhat similar for Crypto VCs… Not as much DPI as there should be from these earlier vintages. Read the full article, as well as a recap of all the crypto fundraising rounds for August, here: https://lnkd.in/g3eVJ-iF

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For the past five months, I’ve been going through VC Lab, the leading venture capital accelerator that helps new VC managers close on capital faster and more efficiently. It’s been a whirlwind of activity and learning. Here are the three major things I’ve learned by participating in the program. ***There’s so much more to VC than just doing deals*** You’re building a firm, not just a fund. You need to position your firm in the best light possible to attract LPs to invest in you, and startups to invest in. You have to model your portfolio construction and ensure your financials are sound. You need to assess and recruit partners - investors, team members, law firms, and others - whom you’ll work with for years or decades. And much more! ***Your Network is Your Net Worth*** VC is probably the most network-driven job in existence. First, new managers will be highly dependent on their first-degree connections in raising their first fund. Your friends, family, and close industry contacts will likely be your first investors, and may intro you to others in their network. And a lot of deal flow will come from your network of other VCs and founders. Strong deal flow is the lifeblood of your fund, and many deals will come from your existing network. VC is 100% based on relationships. ***VC is All About Trust*** Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt once said: "In a networked world, trust is the most important currency." Truer words may never have been spoken. Raising a VC fund is based on trust and the strength of the relationships you have with your LPs: -How much do they trust you to manage their money and act in their best interests? -How confident are they that you understand your industry and will make investments that will provide outsized returns? On a similar note, strong founders will want to work with VCs who have their success in mind: -How much do they trust you to support them through thick and thin? -How confident are they that you can provide value beyond just capital? And both will judge whether they will enjoy working with you for the next few years or decades. Trust is truly the most important currency in VC. Read more about my experience here: https://lnkd.in/e52m9Vm9 If you’re thinking about starting your own VC firm, I highly recommend checking out VC Lab. They are currently accepting applications for Cohort 15, so get to it! https://lnkd.in/ecG7bqhj Let me know if you have any questions about the program or VC in general. Happy to help!

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Here’s HBR’s take on some of the ways VC and PE firms are deploying an alternative data strategy to gain a competitive edge for their brand and portfolio: 1. Algorithmic sourcing - distilling the novel from the noisy: detecting patterns, trends, anomalies. 2. Due diligence - the old school way is often constrained by time and resources: VCs are deep diving, deploying LLMs to do a full analysis (see pharma example in article). 3. Portfolio company value creation: VCs and talent sourcing, Eg; one VC aggregated Google Scholar, GitHub, Quora, Kaggle, and LinkedIn to identify specialized talent to help assemble strong teams for their port cos to kick (and reach) their goals. Even with AI, effectively harnessing the vast amounts of external data is no small feat. Info is highly fragmented and uneven in quality, and demands dedicated resources and expertise to assess what’s most likely be useful, and navigating the thousands of products on the market. Onwards! #AI #Investing #PrivateMarketInvesting

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I’m a strong believer in the idea that leading is largely about building empathy. The job isn’t just helping others understand the mission - it’s helping them complete the mission and building alignment through personal context. To take it a step further, you can’t be empathetic if you aren’t curious. Curiosity drives us to ask deeper questions - those questions build empathy and, then, we become more aligned.

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This is a good resource I've stumbled upon. It covers a plethora of VC and startup-related topics and contains links to expand your knowledge. https://lnkd.in/dqkdV4fA TL;DR: "It's the founders, stupid!" These two lines made me hover over: "I know the physical and emotional tolls that entrepreneurs face". "Resources for Managing Founder Anxiety and Depression" I've been one myself, and it's not for the faint-hearted. I struggled and failed many times. From the standpoint of a person working now for a VC fund, the ability to support a founder who was hit with too much at the same time, to know how to listen, mirror and label Chris Voss's style, and a bit of guidance to build confidence back can do wonders. Assisting portfolio companies doesn't have to be just intros and throwing money or unsolicited advice. And what about identifying troublesome founders before investing to prevent assisting portfolio companies from becoming a nightmare flop? Ahh, that's a tricky one. Startups fail for a variety of reasons. At the early stage, we should look at many things, to name a few: product-market fit, go-to-market, blue ocean or zero to one, CAC and LTV ratio, CAP table, passion, leadership potential, intelligence, technical ability, and many, many more. Crunch the numbers. Sure. What about the early stage? Limited information and knowledge when a decision has to be made, and the outcome is impossible to predict because the future is unknown and unknowable. Examine the founders. If you don't read the founders right and overlook some hidden toxic traits and coping mechanisms that mask something that can derail the startup and founders down the road (vulnerable narcissism, antisocial tendencies, Machiavellism, blameshifting or more benign like anxiety-prone, conflict avoidance, burn-out tendency, inability to delegate, perfectionism, risk aversion, etc.), the chances that it will be your next outlier significantly diminish. How many of you saw dead equity on the capable, founders' clash, low morale, a founder playing the sunk cost game with the fund after burning cash, lying, or even more brazen behaviours like experimenting with horse tranquilisers and smoking weed on a podcast? A "Sudden" shift of values with a splash of megalomania could lead to a CEO removal attempt by the board. Or stealing "HER" voice. It is fun to watch as a TV drama, not to deal with as your portfolio. We won't be able to see it all during a few conversations with the founders and not everyone is Wendy Rhoades from Billions. Knowing how to ask a question behind which is a hidden question and being able to detect when founders say what they think we want to hear to get the funding is a good start. Spending extra time learning that is a good investment. A splash of psychology, empathy, self-awareness, and emotional intelligence to become an excellent GP won't harm your ability to identify and help the right entrepreneurs build great companies.

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Big announcement below! 👇 Let's talk about the current state of GP-LP affairs: 🤯Emerging VC managers have absolutely exploded over the past 5 years. 📈 At the same time, more and more data has surfaced that shows that emerging VC firms tend to outperform larger, established firms. 🤔 All of this has made it intriguing but tough for LPs to know where to direct their attention. 🛍 GPs frequently meet LPs at conferences who are window shopping but not committed to the asset class or emerging managers. 🧾 And both crews get overwhelmed by transactional convos. So Sydney Paige Thomas and I created Abundance. Abundance is a private, nomination-based retreat for active LPs and top emerging GPs to form new experiences together and build lasting relationships. Why Abundance? Abundance is knowing that there is more than enough for more than one to succeed. And a single win within a community is a win for the community itself. The journey of an emerging VC manager from 1st close to final close or Fund 1 to Fund 2 is (1) communal and (2) requires an abundant mindset. LPs look for structure and confidence to feel comfortable investing in early VC firms. Yet many of the feeds we scroll and conferences we attend reinforce inherent power dynamics and transactional thinking, which allows scarcity mindset to creep in for emerging GPs. Some of the best events I’ve attended have been intentionally non-transactional, e.g. Camp Hustle, Recast Summit, and other GPs’ AGMs. The fundraising success stories we see usually involve a community (usually of other GPs & LPs) coming together to support and open doors for the emerging GP. We designed Abundance to be an immersive gathering that fosters these connections. Starting tonight, ~100 GPs and LPs are descending upon Seattle for the inaugural Abundance retreat. This has been under wraps for months and I can’t wait to see it come to life! Thanks in advance to our awesome sponsors who were the earliest believers in this vision: Sydecar, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Gunderson Dettmer, & Zelda Ventures. And shoutout to my dad Ed Illig for logo design & Halle Kaplan-Allen being the first sponsor to say yes 🤩 Presented by The Council Capital & Symphonic Capital.

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A new era of deep tech has emerged. First time funds will raise “unheard of” amounts of capital to fuel next gen deep tech startups - producing outsized, superior returns for LP’s compared to the rest. Prudent investors will act on this data and shift investment strategy as LP’s or risk being left behind savvy wealth managers and CIO’s / FO’s who saw this trend begin 4 years ago.

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One of the things we see quite often at Grit Capital Partners, is a newly minted CEO. We see a big difference in the transition to CEO based upon the historical lane the CEO is coming from. There are different new muscles if you are coming from Product, Engineering, Finance, etc. In this article, we go deep on the CRO to CEO transition, which includes some thoughts from Rosie O'Meara, a particularly fine example of someone who has made the transition quite well. What were your biggest transition moments? https://lnkd.in/eEB-K2ZU

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I'm watching Slow Ventures closely as one of the most innovative funds out there. This podcast with Slow Ventures Principal Yoni Rechtman offers a refreshing take on scaling B2B software through #GrowthBuyouts centered around Metropolis Technologies case study and super interesting overview of Teamshares Rollup strategy, both Slow portfolio company. Growth Buyouts, specifically, flip the traditional SaaS playbook on its head. Instead of burning capital on customer acquisition, this approach suggests building software and then essentially "buying customers" - making a strong case for why the future of scalable business might look more like PE than traditional SaaS. This is a particularly relevant perspective for founders struggling with CAC in traditional software distribution. Also, I really believe #PE and M&A are very key elements in the transformation of most of asset heavy industries.

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Want a front-row seat to the frontier of tech? We’ve got the role (or two) for you! We’re expanding our frontier-tech team at Blackbird by hiring a Frontier Tech Investments Associate and Foundry Fellows! Got questions? We've got answers... 1️⃣ What are the roles? 🧪 Associate = a full-time VC investment gig in our Blackbird Investments team, working directly with me. We’re looking for someone with a science and/or engineering background and more curiosity than they can handle. You’ll grow your own investment brand and practice, support our portfolio founders, and will help build Foundry, our early-stage frontier-tech accelerator. ✨ Foundry Fellow = a casual/contract gig in our Blackbird Investments team, ~15h per week for 3 months. The Fellowship is ideal for PhD students and ECRs who want to learn more about startups and VC. You’ll go deep on emerging areas relevant to your expertise (or curiosity!), get a front-row seat to groundbreaking companies in those areas, build out your non-academic network, and develop a solid writing practice. 2️⃣ Why are you hiring? We love frontier tech, and we’re ready to grow our team. 3️⃣ Wow, it’s so great that you’re starting to look at deep tech! Look, we get it: we don’t make a lot of noise about our frontier tech investing. Buuuut we’ve been deep-tech investors since we backed Tim Kentley-Klay to found Zoox back in 2014—we’ve been on incredible journeys with PsiQuantum (building the world's first utility-scale quantum computer right here in Australia!), Inventia Life Science (transforming drug discovery with high-fidelity cell models), Remedy Robotics (surgical robots for remote endovascular procedures), Opto Biosystems (minimally-invasive neural implants to treat cancer), and more. We believe that frontier technologies, and great frontier-tech investing, will be part of the solutions to the greatest problems humanity faces today. 4️⃣ When do applications close? May 31st at 11:59pm AEST. 5️⃣ I have more questions! I’m sure you do! Clare Birch and I are hosting an AMA to answer any and all questions about these roles. Want to know what a week in the life of our team looks like? What’s keeping us up at night? What our ideal candidate looks like? Come along and find out - registration link in the comments 👇 Apply for these roles: Associate - https://lnkd.in/gCfj4EUJ Foundry Fellowships - https://lnkd.in/gj6ATZVZ If you know anyone that we should meet, send me their details! Cameron Elise Ben Andrew Robin Joseph Adelaide James Olivia Lucinda Raghav Jesse Christie Mohamed Tom Amee Pablo Haya Loong Hon Joshua Benjamin Megan Harry Denzil Matthew Diana Daniel Tom Deanna Justin Amar Lilly Stone Thomas

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