Grant Ballard

Grant Ballard

San Francisco Bay Area
1K followers 500+ connections

About

As Chief Science Officer at Point Blue Conservation Science (formerly Point Reyes Bird…

Activity

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Experience

Education

Volunteer Experience

  • Secretary of the Board of Directors

    Oikonos

    - 15 years 1 month

    Environment

  • Port of San Francisco Graphic

    Waterfront Land Use Plan Update - Working Group member

    Port of San Francisco

    - Present 9 years 5 months

    The Port of San Francisco Waterfront Land Use Plan sets forth land use and urban design policies for the 7 ½ miles of piers, shoreline and nearby lands under the jurisdiction of the San Francisco Port Commission, from Fisherman’s Wharf to India Basin. See http://sfport.com/waterfront-plan-update for more...

Publications

  • Sea ice concentration decline in an important Adelie penguin molt area

    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

    Adélie penguins rely on sea ice throughout their annual cycle but may face particularly challenging conditions during their annual molt, a 19-d period when they replace all their feathers. We identify areas with high sea ice concentration (SIC) that provide critical molting habitat for Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea. SIC during the molt period was unusually low during the study and has decreased since 1980, in contrast with regional trends, potentially creating a previously unrecognized…

    Adélie penguins rely on sea ice throughout their annual cycle but may face particularly challenging conditions during their annual molt, a 19-d period when they replace all their feathers. We identify areas with high sea ice concentration (SIC) that provide critical molting habitat for Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea. SIC during the molt period was unusually low during the study and has decreased since 1980, in contrast with regional trends, potentially creating a previously unrecognized bottleneck for adult survival. These findings emphasize the importance of preserving sea ice habitats crucial to the survival of this iconic species and the need for continued efforts to understand the impacts of changing sea ice conditions on Adélie penguin population dynamics.

    Other authors
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  • Fine-scale oceanographic features characterizing successful Adélie penguin foraging in the SW Ross Sea

    Marine Ecology Progress Series

    Devices attached to penguins can tell us more about the Antarctic ocean than satellite-based sensors – especially about what is happening under the sea surface.

    Penguins were successful at finding food for their chicks across the full geography of our study area – i.e., the entire place is a “hot spot.”

    Underwater light availability and temperature gradients were the strongest predictors of penguin foraging success.

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  • Coping with loss of large, energy-dense prey: A potential bottleneck for Weddell seals in the southern Ross Sea

    Ecological Applications

    Extraction of Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) in the Ross Sea began in 1997, following a management plan that targets the largest fish with a goal of reducing the spawning biomass by 50% over 35 yr. We investigate the potential long-term consequences of the reduced availability of this prey for Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii). Our goals are to (1) illustrate mechanisms and conditions whereby toothfish depletion might plausibly affect seal population trends; (2) identify…

    Extraction of Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) in the Ross Sea began in 1997, following a management plan that targets the largest fish with a goal of reducing the spawning biomass by 50% over 35 yr. We investigate the potential long-term consequences of the reduced availability of this prey for Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii). Our goals are to (1) illustrate mechanisms and conditions whereby toothfish depletion might plausibly affect seal population trends; (2) identify measurable parameters of the seals' ecology that may help better understand the potential negative impact of toothfish depletion on seal populations; and (3) promote a precautionary management approach for the fishery that includes monitoring of seal populations We constructed a set of inter-linked models of seal diving behavior, physiological condition, and demography based on existing information. We evaluate the effect of the following factors on seal mass recovery and intrinsic population growth rates: fishery depletion rate, daily diving limits, probability of a successful dive, and body mass recovery target. We show that loss of toothfish has the greatest potential impact on seal populations' growth rate. Under some scenarios, populations may decrease at >10% per year. Critical parameters to better understand fishery impacts include prevalence and size of toothfish in the seals' diet; the relationship between diet and the rate of mass recovery; and female breeding propensity in relation to body condition at the end of the molting period. Our results lend support to concerns about the potential negative impact of toothfish extraction in the Ross Sea; and to advocate for a precautionary management approach by the fishery.

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  • Climate change winners: receding ice fields facilitate colony expansion and altered dynamics in an Adélie penguin metapopulation

    PLoS ONE

    There will be winners and losers as climate change alters the habitats of polar organisms. For an Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colony on Beaufort Island (Beaufort), part of a cluster of colonies in the southern Ross Sea, we report a recent population increase in response to increased nesting habitat as glaciers have receded. Emigration rates of birds banded as chicks on Beaufort to colonies on nearby Ross Island decreased after 2005 as available habitat on Beaufort increased, leading to…

    There will be winners and losers as climate change alters the habitats of polar organisms. For an Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colony on Beaufort Island (Beaufort), part of a cluster of colonies in the southern Ross Sea, we report a recent population increase in response to increased nesting habitat as glaciers have receded. Emigration rates of birds banded as chicks on Beaufort to colonies on nearby Ross Island decreased after 2005 as available habitat on Beaufort increased, leading to altered dynamics of the metapopulation. Using aerial photography beginning in 1958 and modern satellite imagery, we measured change in area of available nesting habitat and population size of the Beaufort colony. Population size varied with available habitat, and both increased rapidly since the 1990s. In accord with glacial retreat, summer temperatures at nearby McMurdo Station increased by ~0.50°C per decade since the mid-1980s. Although the Ross Sea is likely to be the last ocean with an intact ecosystem, the recent retreat of ice fields at Beaufort that resulted in increased breeding habitat exemplifies a process that has been underway in the Ross Sea during the entire Holocene. Furthermore, our results are in line with predictions that major ice shelves and glaciers will retreat rapidly elsewhere in the Antarctic, potentially leading to increased breeding habitat for Adélie penguins. Results further indicated that satellite imagery may be used to estimate large changes in Adélie penguin populations, facilitating our understanding of metapopulation dynamics and environmental factors that influence regional populations.

    Other authors
    • Michelle A. LaRue
    • David G. Ainley
    • Matt Swanson
    • Katie M. Dugger
    • Phil O'B. Lyver
    • Kerry Barton
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  • Modeling climate change impacts on tidal marsh birds: Restoration and conservation planning in the face of uncertainty

    Ecosphere

    The large uncertainty surrounding the future effects of sea-level rise and other aspects of climate change on tidal marsh ecosystems exacerbates the difficulty in planning effective conservation and restoration actions. We addressed these difficulties in the context of large-scale wetland restoration activities underway in the San Francisco Estuary. We used a boosted regression tree approach to project the future distribution and abundance of five marsh bird species (through 2110) in response…

    The large uncertainty surrounding the future effects of sea-level rise and other aspects of climate change on tidal marsh ecosystems exacerbates the difficulty in planning effective conservation and restoration actions. We addressed these difficulties in the context of large-scale wetland restoration activities underway in the San Francisco Estuary. We used a boosted regression tree approach to project the future distribution and abundance of five marsh bird species (through 2110) in response to changes in habitat availability and suitability as a result of projected sea-level rise, salinity, and sediment availability in the Estuary. To bracket the uncertainty, we considered four future scenarios based on two sediment availability scenarios (high or low), which varied regionally, and two rates of sea-level rise (0.52 or 1.65 m/100 yr). We evaluated three approaches for using model results to inform the selection of potential restoration projects: (1) Use current conditions only to prioritize restoration. (2) Use a single future scenario (among the four referred to above) in combination with current conditions to select priority restoration projects. (3) Combine current conditions with all four future scenarios, while incorporating uncertainty among future scenarios into the selection of restoration projects. Using current conditions resulted in the poorest performing restoration projects selected in light of possible future scenarios. The most robust method for selecting restoration projects used projections from all future scenarios with a discounting of areas with high levels of variability among future scenarios. We show that uncertainty about future conditions can be incorporated in site prioritization algorithms and should motivate the selection of adaptation measures that are robust to uncertain future conditions. These results and data have been made available via an interactive decision support tool at www.prbo.org/sfbayslr.

    Other authors
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  • Coexistence of mesopredators in an intact polar ocean ecosystem: The basis for defining a Ross Sea marine protected area

    Biological Conservation

    Designation of an effective marine protected area (MPA) requires substantial knowledge of the spatial use of the region by key species, particularly those of high mobility. Within the Ross Sea, Antarctica, the least altered marine ecosystem on Earth, unusually large and closely interacting populations of several marine bird and mammal species co-exist. Understanding how that is possible is important to maintaining the ecological integrity of the system, the major goal in designating the Ross…

    Designation of an effective marine protected area (MPA) requires substantial knowledge of the spatial use of the region by key species, particularly those of high mobility. Within the Ross Sea, Antarctica, the least altered marine ecosystem on Earth, unusually large and closely interacting populations of several marine bird and mammal species co-exist. Understanding how that is possible is important to maintaining the ecological integrity of the system, the major goal in designating the Ross Sea as an MPA. We report analyses of niche occupation, two-dimensional habitat use, and overlap for the majority (9) of mesopredator species in the Ross Sea considering three components: (1) diet, (2) vertical distribution and (3) horizontal distribution. For (1) and (2) we used information in the literature; for (3) we used maximum entropy modeling to project species’ distributions from occurrence data from several ocean cruises and satellite telemetry, correlated with six environmental variables. Results identified and ranked areas of importance in a conservation prioritization framework. While diet overlapped intensively, some spatial partitioning existed in the vertical dimension (diving depth). Horizontal partitioning, however, was the key structuring factor, defined by three general patterns of environmental suitability: (1) continental shelf break, (2) shelf and slope, and (3) marginal ice zone of the pack ice surrounding the Ross Sea post-polynya. In aggregate, the nine mesopredators used the entire continental shelf and slope, allowing the large populations of these species to co-exist. Conservation prioritization analyses identified the outer shelf and slope and the deeper troughs in the Ross Sea shelf to be most important. Our results substantially improve understanding of these species’ niche occupation and imply that a piecemeal approach to MPA designation in this system is not likely to be successful.

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  • User's Guide to the Midwest Avian Data Center

    The Midwest Avian Data Center (MWADC) is a cooperative effort between PRBO Conservation Science (founded as Point Reyes Bird Observatory; PRBO), the US Fish and Wildlife Service’s Midwest Region, and the Midwest Coordinated Bird Monitoring Partnership. MWADC serves as a regional data node for the Avian Knowledge Network (AKN). It is modeled after the California Avian Network Center (CADC), which also serves as a data node for the Avian Knowledge Network. With the contributions from these and…

    The Midwest Avian Data Center (MWADC) is a cooperative effort between PRBO Conservation Science (founded as Point Reyes Bird Observatory; PRBO), the US Fish and Wildlife Service’s Midwest Region, and the Midwest Coordinated Bird Monitoring Partnership. MWADC serves as a regional data node for the Avian Knowledge Network (AKN). It is modeled after the California Avian Network Center (CADC), which also serves as a data node for the Avian Knowledge Network. With the contributions from these and other resources, the Avian Knowledge Network maintains datasets representing monitoring efforts across North America (and beyond). In this brief user’s guide, we describe data management and decision support tools offered by MWADC. These tools are designed to manage and analyze bird monitoring data in support of avian conservation and management decisions. We place an emphasis on data management procedures, partly because they differ from those associated with short-term projects. The Avian Knowledge Network, CADC and MWADC provide excellent resources in this area. In addition to data management, we will also review some exciting new decision support tools hosted on the MWADC and CADC sites.

    Other authors
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Projects

  • Using scenario planning to support climate climate-smart adaptation for the South Bay Salt Ponds Restoration Project: A case study for making science accessible to managers

    - Present

    We are using existing decision support tools (DST) in a scenario planning analysis for the South Bay Salt Ponds Restoration Project (SBSPRP) as a case study that other bayland managers can reference for best practices for using these DST’s for adaptation planning within the bay. Through substantial investment by the CA LCC and other partners, we have developed a set of DSTs that support conservation decision making for San Francisco Estuary ecosystems (www.prbo.org/sfbayslr and…

    We are using existing decision support tools (DST) in a scenario planning analysis for the South Bay Salt Ponds Restoration Project (SBSPRP) as a case study that other bayland managers can reference for best practices for using these DST’s for adaptation planning within the bay. Through substantial investment by the CA LCC and other partners, we have developed a set of DSTs that support conservation decision making for San Francisco Estuary ecosystems (www.prbo.org/sfbayslr and http://data.prbo.org/apps/pfss/). Our tools are ideally suited to support climate climate-smart restoration planning for shorebird and marshbird habitat. However, the utility of these tools could be promoted through their application in an actual case study, working closely with a team of managers. The strength of our tools is that they provide estuary estuary-wide estimates of ecosystem response to a set of plausible but widely divergent sea sea-level rise scenarios. The resulting uncertainty in potential outcomes hampers the adaptive planning process. However, by applying a scenario planning analysis we can identify management solutions which are robust to uncertainty (Veloz et al., 2013). We propose to work with the SBSPRP Management Team (PMT) to engage in a scenario planning analysis to evaluate their adaptive management plan for tidal marsh restoration and salt pond management in the context of sea-level rise. Through the scenario planning process the PMT will explore a range of management options for a set of plausible future scenarios and identify actions that are robust to future uncertainty. In addition, this case study will demonstrate best practices for using our DSTs that other wetland managers could use to develop climate adaption plans. Moreover, our approach including the initial tool development could be applied in other estuaries and other ecosystems throughout Western North America.

    Other creators
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  • Our Coast–Our Future

    - Present

    Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project focused on providing San Francisco Bay Area coastal resource managers and planners locally relevant, online maps and tools to help understand, visualize, and anticipate vulnerabilities to sea level rise and storms.

    Other creators
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Languages

  • Spanish

    Professional working proficiency

  • Italian

    Limited working proficiency

Organizations

  • Ecological Society of America

    -

    - Present

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