Erick Valdes

Listen to full episode: http://ms.spr.ly/6048W9wty With the capital landscape for technology companies evolving, how will IPO and M&A activity unfold in 2025? What are investors looking for, and how can tech companies prepare to go public? In this episode of Market Points, Sasson Darwish, Managing Director & Global Head, Technology Investment Banking, is joined by Pete Gordon, Director, Equity Capital Markets, to explore the opportunities and challenges awaiting technology companies looking to raise capital in the year ahead. #ScotiaMarketPoints

115

1 Comment

Check out our quick read on the ENT & Allergy M&A market.

5

At Alvarez & Marsal, we strive to deliver tangible outcomes. I put a lot of focus on action and accountability. Be the one who delivers results, not excuses. #Motivation #WhatInspiresMe #ResultsDriven #SuccessMindset

21

I am #spglobalproud to share S&P Global Ratings’ inaugural article from our thought leadership series on #datacenters, which sit at the intersection of the mega trends shaping today’s and tomorrow’s economies, debt markets and public policy. #genAI #energytransition #privatemarkets #essentialintelligence

196

3 Comments

Exciting news: North Highland has welcomed Michael Drews as Vice President and U.S. Financial Services Industry Lead! 🎉 Michael will be responsible for defining our industry go-to-market strategy and growing the Financial Services industry. He brings 25 years of experience, most recently serving as Partner and US Head of Finance, Risk and Compliance at Capco. Read more about his expertise and career in the press release. #Finance #Leadership #Consulting

2

The SEC’s recent adoption of the U.S. Treasury central clearing mandate will create significant technological impacts for market participants. Our latest insight explores how investing in the right technology can transform a compliance exercise into a strategic opportunity. https://go.ey.com/3VFXqBN #EYInsights #CentralClearing #USTreasury #TechAdvantage

31

As the No. 1 leader in fairness opinions in the U.S. for 2024 according to LSEG, Kroll is here to provide the best in independent financial opinions. Learn how our opinions practice helps boards of directors and special committees fulfill their fiduciary responsibilities when considering many corporate transactions: http://ms.spr.ly/6049oC6tz

2

$SPX is largely unchanged from last Thur breakout back to new highs, but MUCH has happened that needs discussing: Industrials & Materials strengthening sharply along w/ Tech snapping back.. Healthcare has weakened rather noticeably, while Financials, Small and Mid-caps have lagged. Chinese Equities of course made a very good breakout earlier this week.. What's it all mean? I'll discuss tonight in Notes, along with a Video recap. Are you on board yet? Watch out for the imposters https://lnkd.in/eCrsVbUu

11

The US elections promise an end to the regulatory agenda of Gary Gensler at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. For securities finance, taking key regulations off the board will reduce costs and deliver more liquidity to the market; the Gensler agenda won’t be missed. Look out for a version of US Treasury repo clearing to stick around though, either from a regulatory mandate or because it makes the best sense for the industry. More on #finadium: https://lnkd.in/exxh3U3Q

14

Are voters making rational choices? On Friday, WSJ highlighted something that we have been discussing for months: incumbent governments in almost every democracy have either been voted out or their wings were clipped. Reasons as to why this is happening is a vibrant field, with answers ranging from cultural issues to inflation and from historical grievances, unresponsive elites to immigration. As I discuss in my latest book (“The Twilight Before the Storm” https://a.co/d/43NVyQ1), the rupture is driven by the Fujiwara Effect (merger of the Information Age and Financialization), which currently manifests itself in three “I’s” 1. Inflation (instability of both rate of inflation and absolute prices); 2. Inequalities (economic and social); 3. Immigration. Over the last decade, the Fujiwara Effect has reached such intensity that the world no longer agrees on what constitutes the “right” social, political, and economic model. Hence, alternatives proliferate with an almost equal legitimacy. This is totally unlike 1980-2010, when almost everyone sang from the same hymn book. But, it is eerily similar to the 1930s, when extreme left and the nationalistic right were destroying the moderate middle. During such popular disorientations, right is usually more successful by offering easy to understand causes and solutions (e.g. return to historical traditions and norms, blame foreigners and cosmopolitan elites) when compared to a far more complex web of social, economic and taxation policies that tend to dominate discussion on the left. Right is just better in exploiting rather than solving grievances. Under the immense pressure, voters are lashing out, blaming the incumbents. However, what they are not doing is making considerate choices. This has always been the case in human history, explaining why the U.S. founding fathers did not have much trust in the populace making rational decisions, and hence, they created such a highly complex political system, with checks and balances that make governing hard but equally accumulation of power immensely difficult. When will this disorientation end? Historically, it takes decades for humanity to reach a new consensus, driven by younger generations who find the right answer. In my view, we are heading toward a much more restrictive and illiberal world: border closures, higher trade barriers, more conservative and protective culture, greater role for governments and communities as well as meaningful changes in the economic sphere. The question that my book addresses is whether in the intermediate period, we can avoid a world on fire and go straight from the disoriented 1930s into restrictive but more peaceful 1950s, by-passing the 1940s. I also explore what policies might lower tensions and defang the extremes. The views expressed are solely my own and do not reflect views of my employer. https://lnkd.in/ecPGBap8

44

11 Comments

Voters are defanging extremes Policy choices is what determines the success of equity baskets: Biden vs Trump, Le Pen vs Macron, and many others that seem to be filling pages in financial press these days. We all have seen charts that are invariably described as the most important ever whether it is flattening or steepening of yield curves, equity risk premia, energy or technology. However, in reality, none of these trades are likely to persist or, at the very least, are far less predictable than charts suggest. Why? 1. Following elections in the Netherlands, France, UK and the EU, it is clear that while a rise of extreme right reflects genuine issues, especially suffering of large sections of the population who were left behind by the neoliberal agenda. Economic and inflationary volatility, compounded by rising inequalities and inequities, has always been a recipe for a rise of extreme right. It is as much true today as it was in 1920’s-30s. However, it is also clear that while voters are not happy, they are not yet ready to embrace extremes. The right, if it wants to govern, must abandon their most extreme policies. Brothers of Italy, PVV or RN have all emerged as social and cultural conservatives but were forced to eject most other ideas - from exiting EU and emasculating institutions to cutting welfare. One might describe it as a domestication but it is the change driven by voters 2. The same process is underway in the U.S, as the Republican Party is continuing to liquidate its Reagan’s neoliberal roots. Despite close association with the Heritage Foundation, it is actively distancing itself from Project 2025 (focused on dismembering “administrative state”, including shrinkage of federal public services, elimination of entire departments and channeling all power into the executive branch). Republicans are also promising to protect entitlements while massively downplaying abortion and healthcare debates. It is even starting to distance itself from one of the most conservative Supreme Courts on record. Just as RN or Brothers, GOP is emerging as cultural conservatives but with economic policies that are closer to socialism than conservative liberalism (witness JD Vance speech) What does it mean for investors? Whether left or right, there is now a consensus that policies must change. Both agree on limiting immigration while protecting locals and sponsiring industrial policies. Both increasingly regard housing, healthcare and broadband as a right not privilege. Although left is not discussing frontal attacks on state institutions, the right is starting to distance itself from some of their more extreme ideas. So, what is Trump trade? Will it lead to higher inflation and/or higher or lower dollar? Both might be the right answers. Will it disrupt supply chains and encourage or discourage global conflicts? Possibly. The only certainty is the unstoppable march of technology Views expressed are my own and do not reflect views of my employer

46

3 Comments

Ai and Cyber risk challenges for 2LoD are highlighted by Peter Manning

6

Embedding a suitable AI control environment within Markets and Treasury is considered by Peter Manning in a 2nd paper on AI #AI #compliance #Trading #fmcr

7

In a complex fund environment, private equity GPs must digitalize their operations to attract LP investors and make their strategies work harder. FIS’ Ferhat Ansari explains in this Q&A, as part of Private Equity International’s LP Perspectives 2025 Study. http://spr.ly/6044v1DSs #LPperspectives #PEinvestors #privatequity #capitalmarkets #tradingandassetservices

3

US Debt and Cassandra syndrome In Greek mythology, Cassandra was blessed and cursed by the god Apollo. She could see the future, but no one believed her. In medical terms, Cassandra syndrome manifests itself in anxiety, hypervigilance, and disassociation. It is a version of PTSD trauma The syndrome was recently triggered by the latest CBO estimates that indicated larger forward deficits, with Federal debt potentially exceeding 120% of GDP by 2034. CBO also showed that the government is now paying more on interest than on defense. This provoked a surge of articles prophesizing the end of the global power of the U.S. and the unsustainable trajectory of its debt. Unfortunately for doomsayers and Cassandras, we do not reside in the 16th century Spain nor are we in the 18th France or 20th century Weimar Republic. Instead, I think IMF was recently right to argue that the US spending and debt are sustainable. Why? First, US is a monetarily sovereign nation, issuing and using only USD, with the bulk of its bonds owned domestically. Hence, interest on debt is relocation of money from one group to another, without improving or damaging the national position. What counts is the primary deficits, which are running at a steady 3%-3.5% of GDP, having plunged from more than 9% during COVID, and now on par with 2018-19 Second, there is nothing special about specific thresholds. Global government debt is today in excess of 100% of GDP and for more developed economies it is already at 115%. Although this is up from ~60% pre-GFC, it has been a gradual rise over two decades rather than an explosion. There is also no evidence of crowding out of private sectors. The opposite is true, with governments crowding in private sector spending Third, what counts is not just the public sector debt (which in the U.S. is already at 120%, if we include local) but the financialization of the economy. In that respect, US leverage has remained unchanged for a decade at ~3.3x GDP, with private sector steadily deleveraging. What we are seeing is a mild transfer of private debt to public books. Flat leverage also implies that capital is being deployed efficiently Fourth, unlike sovereign debacles in prior centuries, our choices are not limited to default or debase. Multiple avenues are available to monetarily sovereign nations. These include altering macro- and micro-prudential controls to influence private sector, and directly utilizing CB liquidity The question is not whether U.S. government spending is out-of-control but rather why over the last twenty years most economies were not able to grow at rates that societies find acceptable without strong government intervention. But this is a whole different debate from Cassandras prophesizing the end of the empire or USD Views expressed are solely my own and do not reflect views of my employer https://lnkd.in/eWUf9qnu

119

12 Comments

Wishing all of you a happy, healthy and safe holiday season and wonderful new year. 2024 was another successful year for our Rothschild & Co Technology franchise as we advised clients on 60+ M&A and capital markets transactions. As we approach 2025, the U.S. markets are buoyed by economic and regulatory optimism which will translate into a pickup in dealmaking. In Europe, the market remains more cautious due to softer economic and more challenging political dynamics. This aside, there continues to be robust demand from U.S. companies pursuing cross-border M&A, and vice versa. With ~1,400 bankers across 47 countries, including 75+ Technology specialists, Rothschild & Co is uniquely positioned to advise clients capitalizing on the opportunities ahead globally. We are grateful for the trust our clients continue to place in us. Rothschild & Co #technology #innovation #investmentbanking #markets

235

1 Comment

$AAPL breaking out of its triangle pattern, despite a dull market today. Many aren't paying attention to what's happening within Software and Hardware lately- https://bit.ly/3zhabe3 Given AAPL's huge importance to QQQ and SPX, this needs to be discussed as a real positive to markets & to Tech in the short run @IBDinvestors @marketsurge #IBDPartner

19

2 Comments

2024 U.S. Bank CFO Insights Report: A Shift Towards Cost Efficiency and Technological Investment In the latest U.S. Bank CFO Insights Report, a survey of over 2,000 corporate finance leaders across the United States has highlighted a shift in priorities amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties. The findings reveal a strong focus on cost control within the finance function and across businesses, with an emphasis on risk management and technology investments. Stephen Philipson head of Global Markets and Specialized Finance at U.S. Bank, noted that despite challenges like inflation and political instability, CFOs are increasingly prioritizing technological advancements to stay competitive. The survey also showed a cautious but hopeful outlook on the U.S. economy, with only 37% of finance leaders expressing optimism for 2024, though nearly 60% are optimistic about the next three years. Top risks identified include talent shortages and the pace of technological changes, with geopolitical tensions also emerging as a significant concern. This annual report reflects the evolving landscape of corporate finance, emphasizing the delicate balance between managing costs and investing in future growth. #CFOInsights #cfo #CostControl #EconomicOutlook #FinancialLeadership #USBank #RiskManagement #CorporateFinance #BusinessStrategy #GeopoliticalTensions #TechInvestment #FinanceTrends #LeadershipDecisions #EconomicUncertainty #InnovationInFinance #StrategicPlanning https://lnkd.in/ekmeKUTa

4