David Asarnow

The Silver Tsunami is upon us, and it's reshaping the mergers and acquisitions landscape like never before. With an estimated $10 trillion in assets set to change hands over the next decade, driven by baby boomers retiring, the opportunity for savvy investors and entrepreneurs is immense. Currently, around 30,000 businesses sell annually, but with more than 8 million baby boomer-owned businesses expected to transition, the volume of transactions could increase tenfold. This is a monumental shift that smart buyers are already preparing for. You don't need to be a Wall Street titan to benefit from this trend; many of these businesses will transition to local entrepreneurs and small business owners. Are you ready to seize a piece of this $10 trillion wealth transfer? Position yourself strategically to take advantage of this unprecedented wave of opportunities. Engage with fellow professionals and explore how you can be part of this transformation. Not sure how? Let's talk about it! #SilverTsunami #MergersAndAcquisitions #BusinessOpportunities

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During our Annual Investor Day, we discussed a trend we’ve been observing in the VC market: Funds increasingly using “extra downside protection” to compensate for slow growth & inflated valuations of companies. We’re now starting to see some skeletons come out of the closet (and, ironically, they might be the driving force that will re-open the IPO window). First one out: ServiceTitan https://lnkd.in/eNMuPAe6 ps: despite the compounding IPO ratchet structure, I believe ServiceTitan is a solid company and, at the right price (factoring in all adjustments), it's a great deal!

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VC world can be cruel and unforgiving. With LPs more and more pushing for distribution and liquidity, fund managers in the mid-tenure of their fund with zero DPI and TVPI around 1.0 would have much more difficulty to raise new fund. The ability to fundraise is one of the crucial indications and validation of the job for VCs. Key highlights from the article below: Thirteen percent of venture General Partners (GPs) no longer plan to raise another fund due to LP pullback. This rate has doubled since H1 2023 when only 6% of GPs had no plans for another fund. Nearly 44% of venture firms surveyed in mid-2023 had previously postponed their fundraising plans due to concerns about overexposure to the asset class. Many emerging managers entered venture capital in 2019 or 2020 when the LP market supported more funds. However, slow exits in the first half of 2024 have led to challenges in raising second funds without significant cash distributions to LPs. Some venture GPs are now actively participating in the secondaries market to demonstrate returns. Despite the challenges, GPs who secured fresh capital remain optimistic. They expect the 2023 and 2024 vintages to be the strongest return years since 2019. 🚀📈 #VC #VentureCapital #Fundraising #LPs #EmergingManagers #TechInvestment #MarketTrends #CountdownCapital #IndustryInsights #JetVentures #JetInvestment‍‍‍‍‍‍

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Here’s a question investors are often asked: When evaluating early stage companies, how much time do you spend on due diligence around future exits? It’s not surprising we hear this question a lot. Also not surprising: it’s got a wide range of answers depending on the firm. Some don’t spend much time here at all. Others make it a point to put meaningful time in as part of their process. Our current thinking: take the time to do the work on public market comps. At Alpaca VC, we spend significant time understanding how public market investors will  realistically value a business based on margin profile, product, business model & TAM. In short, we want to know: how will this company be valued at scale when we get taken out? Yes, we can acknowledge that the journey toward exit is a windy road and that there may be pivots along the way, but there are still public market companies that have a business model similar to the early stage company you're evaluating. And you can always look at gross profit multiples if you think the margin profile will change over time. So we still do the work on the comps. Quantitative metrics we look at when making the comparison to public market comps include EBITDA multiple, revenue multiple, Gross Profit multiple or all of the above. As part of this process, it’s also important to factor in the public market company’s year-over-year revenue growth as this will also significantly impact the multiple it trades at. Simple example: if you have two public market companies with similar business models and similar margin profiles, but one's growing 100% year over year, and one's growing 50% year over year, then obviously the DCF (discounted cash flow) analysis is going to spit out a very different valuation for the one that's growing faster. Why this matters: When you take all of that information into account as you evaluate an early stage business, you can begin to create a realistic picture of how this company will be valued in the public markets at exit - or how an acquirer will value the company for an acquisition. Strategic acquirers may, of course, pay a premium, but we won’t underwrite for that. This allows us, for example, to form conviction around valuation based on revenue and gross profit predictions. If we think they can do $100M of revenue five years from now, we use this diligence process to form a thesis about whether the characteristics above (product, margin, business model, etc.) will cause the company to be valued at $200M vs. $500M vs. $1B at exit. Curious how other early stage investors think about underwriting an exit and how much time they’re spending on public market comps even though these companies are in their infancy.

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Having a Cars and Capital event tomorrow in Southern California with Oren Klaff. If you want to join message me. https://lnkd.in/gDQ4D39u Oren Klaff Bridger Pennington #InvestorEvent #FamilyOffice #InvestmentOpportunity #CarlsbadEvent #PrivateEquity #WealthManagement #InvestmentConference #CapitalRaising #NetworkingEvent #IndustryLeaders #FinancialGrowth #InvestorsMeetup #WealthBuilding #BusinessGrowth #InvestmentForum

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Board of Directors - insights from "The Essays of Warren Buffett" Buffett’s principles for Boards of Directors emphasize the importance of independence, accountability, and a focus on long-term shareholder value: - Long-Term Focus: Boards should act in the long-term interest of shareholders - Board Composition: Boards with mostly outside directors and select members for business savvy, not prominence or diversity (PE insight: CROs on the Board) - Regular Evaluation: Outside directors should meet without the CEO to assess performance True Independence: Directors must have equity in the company to align with shareholders' interests P.S. This is a very insightful book structuring Warren Buffett's shareholder letters by specific categories - here are the top summary takeaways from the rest of the book: Investment Discipline – Maintain patience and discipline, avoiding speculative investments and market timing Business Quality – Seek businesses with a durable competitive advantage Management – High-quality, trustworthy management & look for managers who think like owners Corporate Governance – Transparent communication and fair treatment of all stakeholders Risk Management – Avoid excessive leverage and maintain a margin of safety to minimize risk and preserve capital Fundamentals – Focus on fundamentals rather than market trends Economic Earnings – Focus on economic earnings and free cash flow rather than accounting profits for a true picture of financial health Long-Term Focus – Long-term investments and value creation vs. short-term gains Capital Allocation – Efficient capital allocation is key - reinvest earnings wisely Market Irrationality – Recognize and capitalize on irrationality as "Mr.Market" can be inefficient in the short term #investing #markets #business #stocks #finance #pe #ceo

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"Small funds may have more incentive to produce higher returns The alignment of incentives between GP and LP varies drastically based on fund size. Managers of smaller funds who have invested substantial personal capital demonstrate an unwavering commitment to lucrative returns, while managers at the helm of colossal funds, buoyed by significant management fees, may exhibit a diminishing drive. This constitutes an almost incontrovertible structural benefit of managing a small VC fund. Furthermore, fund managers of established funds may, over time, raise larger subsequent funds and grow more risk averse. This can present a sub-optimal outcome for their LPs and, by virtue, manifests a bad omen for VC investing." https://lnkd.in/gHKgea4e

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Excited to join industry leaders in LA to explore the future of non-traditional investments. I’ll be speaking at the Private Wealth Southern California Forum, hosted by Markets Group, on 12 November. Together, we’ll discuss how innovations in alternative assets are reshaping the investment landscape. Thank you to Markets Group for providing the platform to explore these transformative developments. #PrivateEquity #Innovation #Technology #Entrepreneurship #VentureCapital #Investing #Finance #Alternatives #Startups #Speaker

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Friends, Q2 was a quarter of progress and learning for us at HawkTower, where we invest in early-stage startups applying breakthrough computing technologies to maximize California's natural resource markets. Our focus is on technology-enabled interventions (e.g., AI-enabled geospatial radars for lithium-ion batteries in the waste stream) for critical, market-level imperatives (e.g., disaster prevention) that can drive rapid commercial adoption (e.g., placed on every recycling truck in the world). Our current investment priorities are: - Agricultural productivity and efficiency - Biomanufacturing - Labor and mobility automation - Waste stream optimization and decarbonization - Disaster prevention and management Here’s a snapshot of what we’ve been up to: Milestones and Investments: - In late April, we officially launched our fund, filing with the SEC. Yay. - By June, we completed our first fund close ahead of schedule, with backing from family offices, foundations, high-net-worth individuals, and organizations aligned with California's future. - Our portfolio now includes three early-stage investments (Farm-ng, Agriful Software, and Nexstera Tech). Strategic Partnerships: - We believe that startups operating closer to their customers and resources, especially in agriculture and biomanufacturing, have a strategic advantage. For instance, the Salinas Valley, a major agricultural hub, is less than an hour from Silicon Valley and serves as a center of thought leadership in the convergence of agriculture and AI (from Western Growers, Taylor Farms, and others). - Similarly, the North San Joaquin Valley is emerging as a biotech and agtech innovation hub, and we are proud to support BEAM Circular, a startup hub for the circular bioeconomy. Key Relationships: - Karen Warner, CEO of BEAM Circular, joined HawkTower as a strategic advisor. - Jackie Cruz, Ed. D. Cruz, Hartnell College’s VP of Advancement, advises on Salinas Valley and workforce development. - Ben Palone from Western Growers, with his technical background in agriculture, became a trusted advisor. - Matthew Hoffman from Driscoll's Global R&D team provides insights on global agriculture, product positioning, and investment strategy. - We collaborated with Monterey Bay DART for workforce development and automation in agtech. - Dominic Milano and the Milano Technical Group from Merced collaborated on key initiatives and advised us on investments. - HawkTower is participating in Santa Cruz Works's accelerator cohort as a mentor and advisor. Thank you Doug Erickson. - We published an overview of entrepreneurship across the UC system with input from across the University of California system. Moving into the fall, we remain deeply committed to supporting founders shaping California's future natural resource markets. Stay tuned and be in touch! : ) Db

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Excited to announce our investment in Alta Resource Technologies alongside Leonardo Banchik (Voyager Ventures) with participation from Orion Resource Partners, Overture Ventures, and WovenEarth Ventures. Rare earths are critical in products from magnets to ceramics and it's important for the US to develop its own supply chain. While the US has some of the best rare earth resources, separating them has historically proven expensive and environmentally unfriendly. Alta through it's computationally designed and optimized proteins allows the US to bring back rare earth production with a cleaner, lower capex, and lower opex solution - and that's just the beginning. Congrats to Nathan Ratledge and the entire Alta team. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/gbGnAJn3

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We are so excited to announce our investment in Misha van Beek and Sebastian Janisch, CFA Janisch, and their company, Bayesline, Inc. Bayesline is a risk management software built for the speed of markets - not for the speed of humans. The challenge? The world is in constant flux, with countless interdependent variables changing all the time. Building and updating risk models can take days - or even weeks. An eternity in the world of asset management. Enter Misha and Sebastian. They’ve built an AI-powered platform capable of delivering risk assessments in seconds. For those old enough to remember, it feels like the introduction of spreadsheets with Lotus 1-2-3 (for Gen Z: Microsoft Excel) in the 1980s - revolutionizing financial planning and modeling forever. Their product is as transformative for traditional assets as it promises to be for digital ones. Creating something as sophisticated as Bayesline requires a rare blend of IT, risk management, and quantitative expertise - paired with experience at institutions like BlackRock and Bloomberg. During our due diligence, one expert estimated that only about 20 people worldwide possess the skill set to tackle what Misha and Sebastian are building. Now that’s a moat we like. We’re proud to join Misha and Sebastian on their journey alongside wonderful co-investors like Y Combinator, 468 Capital, and Multimodal Ventures. #bayesline #riskmanagement #blockchainfounderscapital #startup #venturecapital #fintech

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The data showing emerging manager funds as a critical driver of Alpha keeps coming. The closer alignment between GPs & LPs along with the sheer hustle to find the best companies at the earliest possible points in their lifecycle make emerging manager funds a critical part of the mix for LPs. #InvestingStrategy #MDSVCapital #VentureInvesting #Emergingmanagerfunds

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VC Market Update: Riding Out the Post-Boom Bumps. 2021's high-flying valuations and growth have given way to a more complex reality. With longer private timelines, tough exit markets, and capital tightness, startups face unique challenges—but also fresh opportunities. For those navigating today’s VC landscape, strategic planning is key. Whether it's balancing growth with capital efficiency or exploring secondaries smartly, there’s a path forward. And with boosts from AI and future rate cuts, brighter days could be ahead!

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Rethinking Value Creation in Private Equity Having been immersed in the private equity landscape, I've observed a notable shift in how we approach value creation. The traditional levers—revenue growth, margin expansion, and multiple expansion—are now under greater scrutiny than ever before. From 2013 to 2023, nearly half of the value creation in global buyout deals came from multiple expansion, with revenue growth contributing 53%. However, margin expansion accounted for less than 1%. It's clear that we can no longer rely heavily on multiple expansion as a primary driver of enterprise value. Instead, we must shift our focus towards often overlooked areas, particularly margin expansion, and redefine value creation to include equity value and the strategic use of free cash flow for debt reduction throughout the investment cycle. Key Areas to Focus On: -Revenue Growth: In buy-and-build strategies, especially in the lower middle market, there are abundant opportunities for top-line growth. Professionalizing sales forces, optimizing customer acquisition channels, and expanding product/service lines—whether organically or through acquisitions—can also lead to meaningful margin expansion. -Margin Expansion: While cost-cutting is a well-known method, it’s often unsustainable. By focusing on service lines with higher recurring margins and driving synergies through buy-and-build strategies, we can achieve more sustainable margin improvements. -Multiple Expansion: Although its role will be more limited, opportunities still exist, particularly in the lower middle market. Managing cost-basis and pursuing accretive add-ons can still result in multiple expansion, especially when platforms scale and achieve a premium upon exit. -Net Debt Reduction: With the rising cost of debt, free cash flow becomes a critical focus. Setting value objectives that increase FCF allows PORTCOs to pay down debt over the investment's life, enhancing equity returns. Deciding whether to use excess FCF for debt reduction or reinvestment should be guided by a thorough ROI analysis. The future of value creation in private equity is about more than just numbers—it's about making strategic shifts towards margin expansion and prudent financial management to ensure sustainable growth and strong returns in an increasingly competitive market. #PrivateEquity #ValueCreation #InvestmentStrategy #RevenueGrowth #MarginExpansion #MultipleExpansion #NetDebtReduction #BuyAndBuild #LowerMiddleMarket #PE #FinancialManagement #BusinessGrowth #PortfolioManagement

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💡 Fundraising doesn’t have to feel overwhelming. 💡 For many early-stage founders, raising capital can feel like an uphill battle: too many questions, not enough clarity. How do you simplify the process? How do you optimize your approach to make every step count? On November 22, join Wildtree Ventures for a free 2-hour workshop designed to help you #ThinkLikeAVC and take the guesswork out of fundraising. This interactive session is all about helping early-stage founders like you unlock the secrets to successful fundraising. What you’ll gain: ✅ Strategies to streamline your fundraising journey ✅ Insights into how investors think and make decisions ✅ Real-world tools to secure the funding you need to grow This workshop isn’t theory—it’s about actionable learning that will save you time, energy, and frustration. We’re hosting this session because we believe that incredible startups shouldn’t stumble over fundraising—they should thrive with the right tools and guidance. 👉 Seats are limited—secure your spot now! [Link to Register] Let’s simplify, optimize, and demystify fundraising together. See you there!

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I recently saw this metric from Carta’s 1Q24 VC Fund Report, which is very concerning. DPI... is nowhere to be found in earlier vintages that probably should start showing DPI. Funding early-stage projects is great, but ultimately, these venture dollars need to exit their investments and pay back their limited partners. That’s where the metric Distributed to Paid-In Capital (DPI) comes in. While managing a fund, we get interim measures during the life of the fund (e.g. IRR, MOIC), but ultimately, “you can’t eat IRR.” If you want to build a lasting venture capital organization, you need to start showing DPI for your fund. Keep in mind that this is traditional VC data from Carta, and is not strictly crypto venture. Crypto venture tends to get liquidity earlier (tokens) and things tend to go parabolic sooner (faster, more unicorns) - but I’d wager that the data here is somewhat similar for Crypto VCs… Not as much DPI as there should be from these earlier vintages. Read the full article, as well as a recap of all the crypto fundraising rounds for August, here: https://lnkd.in/g3eVJ-iF

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🔥 🔥 🙌 🙌 🎆 🎆 I'm *fired up* to share this. #VentureIQ by the 9point8 Collective is officially live. We've heard from investors of every size and type that it takes too long and costs too much to evaluate deal flow; this limits the scale and speed at which these capital allocators can operate. To address this problem, we've created an innovative solution which delivers high fidelity diligence information near instantaneously. From a time and cost perspective, VentureIQ immediately creates leverage to look at more deals - and creates space to focus deeply on the most meaningful opportunities. To learn more, you can reach out to me directly or visit VentureIQ.ai. I'll close with some thoughts on my team, to whom I'm so grateful. Blair Merlino, Neal Ghosh and Evan Allen don't just talk about interesting concepts, point out problems or pontificate on what could be. Instead, they identify a problem, frame and validate the solution, and do the work to bring it to reality. VentureIQ is the best example I've seen of this, to date. #VentureCapital, #FamilyOffice, #PrivateEquity #CorporateDevelopment #Startups

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What's the fast river in alts? Listen to the latest Alt Goes Mainstream podcast with Mercer's Gregg Sommer & CAIS' Neil Blundell to hear how they are helping advisors approach private markets. Gregg, Neil, and I had a fascinating discussion about how the wealth channel can approach alternatives and how they can think about both diligence and customization. We covered: * The case for alternatives. * How advisors currently approach alternatives and how they can think about it differently going forward. * How to think about portfolio construction that includes alternatives. * How alts can help advisors differentiate their practice and attract clients. * Following the fast river in a career and why alternatives are “the fast river.” * The meaning of “structure over strategy.” * The rise in popularity of evergreen funds. Thanks Gregg and Neil for sharing your thoughts and expertise on private markets. Thanks to our sponsor, Ultimus Fund Solutions, for making this episode possible. https://lnkd.in/eBtyw6Fm

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Venture capital often represents just a small portion—around 10%—of many investors’ portfolios, but the time commitment can be disproportionate. Building the right relationships, vetting managers, and staying ahead of evolving market trends can easily consume 90% of your time. It can be very rewarding but exhausting. The reality is, VC sometimes isn’t just about capital allocation—it’s about understanding the human element, aligning with visionaries, and adapting to rapidly shifting dynamics in technology and business models. The effort required to navigate this landscape is substantial, but so are the potential returns, both financial and intellectual. The real value comes from the relationships you cultivate and the insights you gain along the way, which can often inform the rest of your investment strategy.

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