Carli Sapir

In addition to building our own VC practice at AAF Management Ltd., we’ve invested in 37 VCs since 2017. Here is what, I believe, it takes to build a multi-vintage, early-stage, venture franchise: 𝟭- 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗙𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀: hyper-focused GPs build longevity and consistency in their businesses. If you pitch LPs saying you will invest in early stage consumer but end up doing late stage consumer that’s a massive red flag. Stay germane to your mandate and strategy. 𝟮- 𝗔𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗮 𝗨𝗻𝗶𝗾𝘂𝗲 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: the market is crowded with venture firms, articulate your differentiated value proposition to LPs and founders. Don’t try to be everything to everyone. Focus on 1-2 value propositions to your stakeholders and execute them with excellence and defensibility. 𝟯- 𝗚𝗲𝘁 𝗕𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗮𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆-𝗧𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴: we tell stories everyday. Raising capital for a fund and building your venture firm requires that same story-telling skillset. Tell consistent narratives to the market to help build your own brand as well as your firm’s brand. 𝟰- 𝗟𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗦𝘂𝗯𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁-𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗶𝘀𝗲: if you possess subject-matter expertise in a certain vertical, domain or industry, you already own a defensible moat. Accentuate that to your advantage when building your firm, raising capital from LPs and winning deals from founders. 𝟱- 𝗠𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗖𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗼𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗡𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲: early stage venture is a highly collaborate asset class. Keep your ego at the door, you will never be able to do everything it takes to build a firm alone. Leverage LPs, partners and founders for deal flow sourcing, diligence and overall industry best practices. 𝟲- 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁-𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁-𝗙𝗶𝘁: in quintessential startup vernacular, ideally find your product-market-fit by the time you launch your second fund. You need product-market-fit before you scale your AUM, grow your team and carry more fiduciary responsibility. 𝟳- 𝗞𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗣𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲: early stage VC investing is a marathon. Patience will reward you personally, professionally and financially. Build mental, physical and psychological stamina to endure the inherent ebbs and flows of your entrepreneurial journey. 𝟴- 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗴-𝗧𝗲𝗿𝗺: early stage VC investing is the archetypal long-term financial asset. Think in 10 year increments for your firm’s grand vision, think in 4 years for a given fund’s investment period and think in quarters when reporting material updates on your portfolio to your LPs. 𝟵- 𝗛𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗙𝘂𝗻: if instant gratification, short feedback loops and a constant need for reaffirmation is what you are looking for in a career then early stage VC investing will not fulfill you. Have fun building, and as Naval Ravikant once said: "𝙗𝙚 𝙖𝙣 𝙤𝙥𝙩𝙢𝙞𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙘 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙖𝙣." Finally, and most importantly, be authentic and true to yourself. #firmbuilding #entrepreneurs #VC

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VC world can be cruel and unforgiving. With LPs more and more pushing for distribution and liquidity, fund managers in the mid-tenure of their fund with zero DPI and TVPI around 1.0 would have much more difficulty to raise new fund. The ability to fundraise is one of the crucial indications and validation of the job for VCs. Key highlights from the article below: Thirteen percent of venture General Partners (GPs) no longer plan to raise another fund due to LP pullback. This rate has doubled since H1 2023 when only 6% of GPs had no plans for another fund. Nearly 44% of venture firms surveyed in mid-2023 had previously postponed their fundraising plans due to concerns about overexposure to the asset class. Many emerging managers entered venture capital in 2019 or 2020 when the LP market supported more funds. However, slow exits in the first half of 2024 have led to challenges in raising second funds without significant cash distributions to LPs. Some venture GPs are now actively participating in the secondaries market to demonstrate returns. Despite the challenges, GPs who secured fresh capital remain optimistic. They expect the 2023 and 2024 vintages to be the strongest return years since 2019. 🚀📈 #VC #VentureCapital #Fundraising #LPs #EmergingManagers #TechInvestment #MarketTrends #CountdownCapital #IndustryInsights #JetVentures #JetInvestment‍‍‍‍‍‍

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Avoiding bloody water (lots of competition) might be the most high leverage way to engineer success…here’s our blue ocean strategy: Avoid venture backed players (who can spend on unsustainable growth practices) by targeting niche industry verticals Avoid private equity buyers (who drive up valuations via auctions) by staying under $3M ARR What else can be layered in to avoid other dimensions of competition? #microsaas #saasgrowth #acquisitionentrepreneur

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Check out my recent post on why President Trump is the forcing function for us to solve the “Missing Middle” and catch the industrial Tsunami of onshoring coming to the US!

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"Simply put, there is too much capital seeking too few opportunities, particularly at the seed stage. Multi-stage firms have eliminated pricing discipline at seed stage and the proliferation of seed firms has made the task of investing at this stage as competitive as it’s ever been, leading me to believe that indexed seed investing in today’s environment will produce poor returns. What does this mean for today’s environment? It’s never been more important to break away from median performance. While there is risk in breaking away from the pack, the risk (at least performance wise) of staying part of the herd is simply far worse. Median returns for the recent vintages are simply terrible. One could argue that funds are still in their j-curve phases, but I suspect this doesn’t explain the divergence we’re seeing between GOOD performers and GREAT performers. More than ever before, it’s clear to me that playing the same game as everyone else will not work, so fund managers should question whether they are really capable of being in the top 5% of whatever strategy they are employing. From a LP perspective, allocators should likely ask the same of their managers and consider whether allocating to indexed mega funds or indexing across too broad of a portfolio of managers is tenable in achieving their return targets." https://lnkd.in/g8GqHY-P

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The VC landscape of New York is full of industry giants. Love seeing resources like this to help founders discover the right investors for them and for those seeking to break into VC, find the right firm! VC maps like this demystify the startup ecosystem, providing transparency on who’s who in the VC world. For founders, this means knowing where to turn when you’re ready to scale, understanding who aligns with your vision, and finding investors that get your industry. (Or, you might discover you don't need to be a venture-backed business and bootstrap instead - which I personally love to see - hot take.) For VCs, it’s about building relationships with the best and brightest, ensuring we’re accessible to the entrepreneurs who need us the most, and knowing which metrics mean the most to the startup world. Having visibility into the ecosystem breaks down barriers, makes room for more inclusive, diverse investments, and ultimately, leads to more impactful innovation. Would love to learn more about similar resources that level the playing field and empower more entrepreneurs to succeed. Venture Capital Firms in NYC Map: https://lnkd.in/ez2i4D4r #entrepreneurship #venturecapital #startups

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Here’s a question investors are often asked: When evaluating early stage companies, how much time do you spend on due diligence around future exits? It’s not surprising we hear this question a lot. Also not surprising: it’s got a wide range of answers depending on the firm. Some don’t spend much time here at all. Others make it a point to put meaningful time in as part of their process. Our current thinking: take the time to do the work on public market comps. At Alpaca VC, we spend significant time understanding how public market investors will  realistically value a business based on margin profile, product, business model & TAM. In short, we want to know: how will this company be valued at scale when we get taken out? Yes, we can acknowledge that the journey toward exit is a windy road and that there may be pivots along the way, but there are still public market companies that have a business model similar to the early stage company you're evaluating. And you can always look at gross profit multiples if you think the margin profile will change over time. So we still do the work on the comps. Quantitative metrics we look at when making the comparison to public market comps include EBITDA multiple, revenue multiple, Gross Profit multiple or all of the above. As part of this process, it’s also important to factor in the public market company’s year-over-year revenue growth as this will also significantly impact the multiple it trades at. Simple example: if you have two public market companies with similar business models and similar margin profiles, but one's growing 100% year over year, and one's growing 50% year over year, then obviously the DCF (discounted cash flow) analysis is going to spit out a very different valuation for the one that's growing faster. Why this matters: When you take all of that information into account as you evaluate an early stage business, you can begin to create a realistic picture of how this company will be valued in the public markets at exit - or how an acquirer will value the company for an acquisition. Strategic acquirers may, of course, pay a premium, but we won’t underwrite for that. This allows us, for example, to form conviction around valuation based on revenue and gross profit predictions. If we think they can do $100M of revenue five years from now, we use this diligence process to form a thesis about whether the characteristics above (product, margin, business model, etc.) will cause the company to be valued at $200M vs. $500M vs. $1B at exit. Curious how other early stage investors think about underwriting an exit and how much time they’re spending on public market comps even though these companies are in their infancy.

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The fundraising market for VC funds is on track for its worst year since 2015. The shortage of IPOs has meant a lack of liquidity to LPs, causing less appetite for new fund commitments. The last two years have felt a bit like a "venture stalemate." Will it change in 2025? My latest article in Forbes includes predictions from leading Limited Partners (LPs) across the US and Europe, including institutions, fund of funds and family offices. Read below (link in comments) to see what they're expecting for venture capital in the year ahead. 🔮 Aakar Vachhani Fairview Capital Hana Yang Allocate Adam Marchick Akkadian Ventures Anu Adebajo Daryn Dodson Dominic Maier AVP Layne Johnson Screendoor Julie Pulda, CFA Ballentine Partners, LLC Albert Azout Level Ventures Charlotte Palmer Mark Schmitz equation January Ventures

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✨ Breaking: iif VC Announces New Fund.- iif VC With a total of €16.4 million, iif VC targets tech companies with global potential and strong R&D capabilities. It operates a unique co-investment model, allowing private investors to invest directly in portfolio companies on a deal-by-deal basis without becoming limited partners (LPs). This flexible approach promotes tailored investments and scalability for its portfolio companies. http://www.iif.pl/ Please share to let other #Founders know For the ❤️ of Startups #Fusion42 #Startups #Venturecapital

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I really enjoyed recording this episode of The Digital Industrial Podcast with Ty Findley. We talked about common misconceptions for deep tech, the "Why Now" for the category, and differences between investor diligence for deep tech and traditional tech. https://lnkd.in/eKtwjauu

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Great episode for early stage VC's and capital allocators to check out. https://lnkd.in/ekz7JHJd #vc #fundraising #venturecapital

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Today, we’re announcing our second fund of $450m to support our mission of partnering with early stage software companies that leverage technology discontinuities into go-to-market advantages. This marks the next chapter in our firm’s evolution. Since we launched Theory Ventures in 2023, we’ve gathered a wonderful team : Lauren DeMeuse, Spencer Farrar, Andy Triedman, Rafa Jara Simkin, Amber (., Arjun Mishra, & Kristin Beach. We have partnered with 8 marvelous founding teams, all using data to power the next wave of innovation across the Modern Data Stack, Artificial Intelligence, & Web3. We’ve grown our fund size to match the needs of founders in this market : average Series A rounds have increased 42% since our launch, a reflection of the growth potential of these software categories. I’m grateful to our team, our founders, & our limited partners for the continued support, & to Allie Garfinkle for sharing more about Theory (https://lnkd.in/gmD7zjSP).

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The Trends I’m Seeing in VC and PE-Backed Companies as a Fractional Advisor. One big shift I’ve noticed is earlier involvement in mentoring pre-seed and scale-ups. Previously, I’d typically step in at Series A or later. But now, I’m being asked to guide companies at much earlier stages. The market is so competitive that founders want to lay solid foundations well before investment lands. It’s a smart move - preparing for growth and scaling in today’s challenging environment requires clear strategies and strong operational frameworks from the start. Catch the full episode: https://lnkd.in/e_JfxnzS #FractionalAdvisor #VC #PE #Startups #ScalingUp

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Preparing a VC-Backed Company for an Exit Event Excited to share insights on navigating exits for private companies! 💼 Achieving liquidity through M&A exits requires preparation and strategic oversight. Founders and managers must ensure internal alignment among stakeholders before embarking on the sale process. Timing is key—keeping a close eye on market conditions and managing burn rates can maximize value. Starting early with the proper mix of financial and legal advisers, being on top of legal housekeeping, and diligently negotiating the term sheet can simplify the process and lead to a very rewarding outcome for all parties involved. Read More Here: https://bit.ly/4dcbZnT #MandA #StartupSuccess #BusinessStrategy Branded Hospitality Ventures

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