Amitabh Bhargava MBA, CFA, FRM, CRC, SCR

DECUMULATION IDEAS #126. 2 MORE FREE BOOKS DROP TODAY... 1. A SMART APPROACH TO PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT (h/t Shaila Fernandes-Muralidhar at RoyalFern Publishing LLC for giving up rights) - I wrote this book after the 2008 crash destroyed the average portfolio (especially the Yale Model portfolios loaded up on private assets), but where our strategies and those of good friends (Cees Dert Roland van den Brink) did incredibly well. Really relevant today as we are currently 2008 on steroids - https://lnkd.in/ggybkTpX 2. 50 States of Gray: An Innovative Solution to the Defined Contribution Retirement Crisis (h/t Investments & Wealth Institute, especially Debbie Nochlin) - better reform model for state-based IRAs that folks at Pew Research Center and Georgetown University Center for Retirement Initiatives try to make a case for. Where I show how #SeLFIES fit into an effective overall retirement system that can deliver GUARANTEED REAL RETIREMENT INCOME at LOW-COST AND LOW-RISK. Current state-based plans are WAY TOO expensive for what they deliver - https://lnkd.in/gTtAgX4G

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I’ve been turning down all media requests for a post election analysis but talk of whether alliances will hold post elections reminded me of something I wrote 26 years ago - before a Lok Sabha Election result.   The basic premise: one who holds 30 seats may have the same power, or even more, as compared to someone who holds 245 seats.   A mathematical Power Index explains how   Quote Let’s get on with the “Power Indices” of the various political parties.   Think of it this way : suppose you require a 50% plus majority to form a government and there are 3 parties in the parliament with the following seat tally : 44%, 39% and 17%.   Now, any two of these can join together to form the government and therefore all three of them have exactly equal power, no matter that Party 3 has got less than half the number of seats that the first two have. This is a concept that is of use in any ‘majority wins’ decision rule from shareholder resolutions to jury decisions.   Suppose there are 4 parties in the fray this time around: A, B, C and D parties, having 35%, 34%, 17% and 14% of the seats resp. Again if a simple majority is needed to form a government, any two out of A, B & C can form a government whereas the Party D’s support is never really crucial to anyone.   If this party’s 14% is added onto the percentages of any of the first three parties, the sum does not exceed 50% and any larger coalition of parties doesn’t require its support anyway. Party D is therefore called a ‘dummy’ - an apt term for someone whose vote can never change a losing coalition into a winning one or vice versa.   The dummy has no power, while all the other three parties i.e. A, B and C have equal power.   This is inspite of the fact that Party C has far fewer seats than A and B and only a few more than the smallest one i.e. Party D   For those interested, there is a technical concept called the Banzhaf Power Index (BPI) of a group, party or person which is defined as the number of ways in which that group, party or person can change a losing coalition into a winning one or vice versa.   In the preceding example, the BPI of parties A, B and C are equal and that of Party D is zero.    In fact as an individual MP, you are better-off being a part of Party C than Party A or B because as part of the government you get a disproportionate share of the goodies. This is exactly what happened in U.P. where virtually every MLA of a marginal party who joined the BJP government was made a minister - something that was a remote dream for most BJP MLAs.   Unquote (First Global's weekly 'Markets, Majorities and Maths', January 1998)   Thus if a few smaller partners can hold whichever coalition government to ransom, it introduces uncertainty.   “The more things change, the more they stay the same” Hence, I can repeat a 1998 piece which has contemporary parallels   We may be in for some interesting times.   History also shows coalition governments have been pretty good for the economy and markets.

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With Q2 GDP growth sharply lower than expected, the critical question is whether this is a temporary brake or we need to brace for slower growth ahead. Sharing my views on this

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📈 Join Our Exclusive Webinar This Wednesday! With over 15 years of experience in the field, I’ve navigated the complex world of options trading and have come to appreciate the power of spreads. This Wednesday, I’m inviting you to an intermediate-level webinar where we’ll dive deep into the mechanics of Butterfly and Condor option strategies. These intermediate-level strategies have gained popularity among traders of short-dated options, and for good reason. They offer a unique blend of risk management and profit potential that can be a game-changer in the right market conditions. Whether you’re looking to diversify your trading approach or simply want to understand these strategies better, this webinar is for you. Join me as we delve into the mechanics, benefits, and real-world applications of these fascinating strategies. #OptionsTrading #ButterflyStrategy #CondorStrategy #Investing #Finance

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International Cooperative Year(IYC2025):The action plan of NAFSCOB will be centered around the New Delhi Action Agenda(NDAA) resolve on issues like Reaffirming the Cooperative Identity, Enabling Policy and Entrepreneurial Ecosystems, Nurturing Purposeful Leadership, building a Sustainable and Cooperative Future. Hence NAFSCOB also resolve to Act decisively on the commitments outlined in this Declaration. NAFSCOB and International; Cooperative Banking Association(ICBA) will initiate proactive measures to promote the cooperative banking sector during IYC 2025.NAFSCOB can play a significant role in contributing to the success of the IYC 2025 by leveraging its extensive network, influence, and experience in the cooperative banking sector. NAFSCOB shall serve as a leader and catalyst in ensuring the success of IYC 2025. ICBA shall strengthen its alignment with the global cooperative movement. ICBA and NAFSCOB work for greater public recognition of the importance of cooperative banks in India and member nations of ICBA members during IYC2025.

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The new Indian government, navigating a coalition setup, has set forth an ambitious growth plan focused on economic recovery, improving the quality of life for poor and middle-class families, and addressing unemployment and educational disparities. By leveraging immediate and long-term strategies, the administration aims to foster a more inclusive and prosperous India. The success of these initiatives will hinge on effective policy implementation and the ability to maintain a stable and cooperative political environment.

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As I started my entrepreneurial journey, I have been engaging with leaders in the financial services industry. The learning and insights from these discussions have been incredible and I figured it’s time to start sharing them with everyone. So here is the first installment of 'RaSa Credit Talks'—a series where I'll be sharing these discussions. #underservedlending #cashflowunderwriting #securedcards #creditcardconsulting

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US Elections and its impact on various sectors in India (ET Now)

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I recently contributed to The Economic Times article discussing considerations for Indian entrepreneurs looking to set up business in US. And, how EB5 investment and visa can be beneficial in sustaining life and business in the US. #EB5 #EB5visa #EB5immigrationbyinvestment

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"Thrilled to have joined ET Now Swadesh on their show 'Khara Sauda' alongside DIMPY KALRA l, Abhishek Satya Vratam and Srishti Sharma . We delved deep into the fascinating world of FII data and explored how short covering could potentially drive significant surges in stock prices. A dynamic discussion that sheds light on the intricacies of the market! #Finance #StockMarket #ETNowSwadesh #KharaSauda"

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My views in Hindu Businessline on the magnanimous listing of the one and only Bajaj Housing Finance https://lnkd.in/dUDR8XRX

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An interesting write up from friend Amit Nagpal, PhD . Role of Board and Board of directors is the key for successful governance in a corporate. He has rightly linked few learning from Buddha and applying them to Board and board of directors. Read on his thoughts in his blog https://lnkd.in/gXaqH2WE #independentdirectors #Boardroom #Buddha

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In this moneycontrol.com article I, along with other experts, opine that the electoral outcomes are hardly expected to impact monetary and fiscal policies of the new government. Rather policy continuity and reforms should go on as expected. Manish M. Suvarna #elections #monetarypolicy #fiscalpolicy

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A MOVING OBITUARY ON DR. MANMOHAN SINGH FROM RAHGURAM RAJAN Raghu.. brilliant article. Totally objective. We have lost a leader who was dignity personified along with intellectual heft we have not seen since Pandit Nehru. And high integrity. Such a rare combination in political leaders is something we miss sorely across the political spectrum today. Perhaps, as a cacophonic society we do not deserve such clean, self effacing and supremely inclusive individuals of rare intellectual calibre in our political firmament.

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Shared my perspective on the election outcome and its potential effects on the financial industry and economy. Read more insights at link below..

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🌟 𝐈𝐬 𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐲-𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝? 🌟 Abhishek Lodha and his family's pledge to transfer shares worth ₹20,000 crore in Macrotech Developers to the Lodha Philanthropy Foundation resonates with the Tata Group's visionary approach. Abhishek Lodha's initiative underscores the potential for businesses to drive social change, aligning corporate success with societal well-being for long-term growth and stability. The Tata Group, with 66% of Tata Sons' equity held by philanthropic trusts, exemplifies the integration of philanthropy into business for societal impact. Founded in 1868 by Jamsetji Tata, the Tata Group's model reinvests profits back into society, creating a sustainable framework that benefits both the company and the community. The integration of philanthropy into business models not only enhances corporate reputation but also fosters a resilient and inclusive economy. Visionary leaders like Azim Premji, Narayana Murthy, and Shiv Nadar have set notable examples by channeling wealth towards philanthropic foundations, reshaping the role of businesses in society. These leaders are redefining success, emphasizing positive impact alongside profits. Their commitment highlights the transformative power of businesses in driving impactful change and creating a better world for all. 🌍💼 #Philanthropy #BusinessLeadership #SustainableGrowth #TataGroup #LodhaGroup #CorporateSocialResponsibility #AzimPremji #NarayanaMurthy #ShivNadar

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Is BofA’s moral compass broken beyond repair? From sharing non-public information with investors in India to the recent tragedy in their investment banking division, it’s clear that Bank of America is plagued by systemic issues. Overworked junior bankers, told to lie about their hours, highlight the toxic culture that festers when ‘too big to fail’ becomes an excuse to cut corners and sidestep regulations. This isn’t just BofA’s problem—Wachovia and others are guilty of similar deceitful practices. When will these institutions be held accountable for prioritizing profits over ethics and human well-being?

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Uttar Pradesh saw the most notable reduction in poverty, with 34.3 million people escaping multidimensional poverty during this period. Notably, the number of states with less than 10 per cent of their populations living in multidimensional poverty doubled from seven in 2016 to 14 in 2021.

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A little over 30 out of 190 million rural Indian households had tap water connections in India in 2019. However, in early 2024, 145 million households already have a tap water connection. This means that more than 20 million new tap connections are built every year, on average. This remarkable increase in the percentage of rural households with tap water connections, from 16.69 percent in 2019 to 75.18 percent by 2024, is the kind of spectacular policy success rarely seen in India’s social sector history. According to WHO estimates, in 2018, unsafe drinking water caused an estimated 125,995 diarrhoea deaths in India. Therefore, tackling the challenge of providing universal access to safe drinking water not only epitomises a critical stride towards enhancing public health but also embodies a significant leap in mitigating health disparities. There is a strong correlation observed between improved water access and a substantial decrease in diarrheal disease incidence, a major cause of child mortality.

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