Alex Golbin, CFA

Zoom in on "repeatable #alpha" and it often looks less impressive up close. An analogy: Roger Federer gave a hell of a commencement address at Dartmouth College several months ago in which he walked through his career #statistics. In sum, he won - 82% of matches, but only - 76% of sets yet only - 58% of games and, shockingly, only - 54% of points. The idea that long term outperformance often is driven by a surprisingly modest positive win-loss ratio is not new. Traders with 55% win rates are heroes. Poker players with 55% win rates are banned from casinos. #quantitative #finance relies on small average wins. Even #fundamental investors get it. A journalist once asked #valueinvesting legend Howard Marks why all his funds were in the top quartile, and he reportedly replied "because we never leave the second quartile." #Replication of pre-fee #hedgefund returns is built on this same principal. Create a #statistical tailwind and watch it play out over time. Reach out if you want to discuss stats. 😎 https://lnkd.in/e3Z45Dnv

33

2 Comments

The Last of the Tactical Allocators (S7E13) My guest is Victor Haghani, founder of Elm Wealth. Victor is, in many ways, one of the last tactical asset allocators standing after the 2010s. That might be because Victor wouldn’t categorize himself as such. Rather, he sees his dynamic index investing approach not as a tactical alternative to traditional static portfolios, but as the rational approach for anyone starting from first principles. This conversation dances between theory and implementation. Victor is just as comfortable sharing his thoughts on where equity market risk comes from as he is defending payout-adjusted CAPE as a metric for forecasting long-run returns. If you’re passionate about asset allocation, you’ll find lots to think about in this one. Please enjoy my conversation with Victor Haghani. Spotify: https://lnkd.in/e3Fha6TS Apple: https://lnkd.in/ehxf-Dh2 YouTube: https://lnkd.in/epjxYDYF

97

4 Comments

=> The U.S. labor market report produced a knee-jerk reaction among major FX – but MXN, COP, BRL, and ZAR are bucking the trend => MXN clearly likes the idea of a stronger growth in the U.S. Further, President Sheinbaum continues to send orthodox policy signals (including the post-election fiscal adjustment), and there is now a possibility that parts of controversial judicial reform might be revised => BRL/COP/ZAR’s outperformance is even more interesting – Domestic factors still getting noticed? (chart’s source - Bloomberg LP)

13

If you think portfolio risk management is just about diversification, think again. This article sheds light on some surprising strategies that challenge common perceptions. Here are some thought-provoking takeaways: - Did you know that reducing the number of investments in a portfolio can sometimes actually decrease risks? It's all about strategic selection. - Contrary to popular belief, actively managing risk doesn't necessarily mean more frequent trading. In fact, a hands-off approach can be a smart move. - One of the key points discussed is the importance of understanding the correlation between investments, a factor often overlooked in risk management strategies. - Asymmetric risk and the role it plays in portfolio management is explored, offering a fresh perspective on balancing risk and return. - Ever considered tail risk hedging? This article dives into this lesser-known strategy that can enhance risk management effectiveness. Share your thoughts and feelings on these unconventional risk management strategies. https://lnkd.in/ecgSpH93

Savanna Buys 799 Broadway For $255M, Slightly Less Than Building's Debt NYC An office investor grappling with distress in pockets of its portfolio dropped a quarter-billion dollars to take advantage of someone else's. https://lnkd.in/eqwQSaYx

1

#etf #allocators, help me out here. Hell, anyone interested in #inflation protection, active #etfs or even #fixedincome broadly, please chime in. For accidental reasons, I (sort of) follow two inflation hedge #etfs: $IVOL and $RISR. $IVOL: "inflation hedge" ETF launched in 2019 that is basically #TIPS plus some tricky hedging. AUMS took off like a rocket ship (zero to $3.5 bn in two years). Quadratic Capital Management LLC looked like it would be the ARK Investment Management LLC of #fixedincome ETFs. Today $IVOL looks like a failed experiment: underperformed the BlackRock iShares TIPS ETF by 400 bps per annum at 5x the fees, Sharpe ratio of -0.4, max DD of -28% (more than double $TIP), Morningstar ⭐ (bottom quartile in 2021, 2022, 2023 and ... YTD) . Yet still $700+ mm in AUMS. $RISR: "inflation hedge" ETF from FolioBeyond that was launched in 2021 that buys #mortgage IOs, a straightforward rising rate hedge that's worked for thirty plus years. Up 60% cumulatively since launch with $TIP down 2% (and IVOL down 22%!), Sharpe ratio of 1.05, max DD of 7%, negative correlation to the Bloomberg AGG with 700 bps per annum of #alpha, and Morningstar ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐. Yet stuck at $50 mm today. So here's my question: What causes this stickiness for funds that were marketed with a pitch that, in retrospect, appears to have been wrong? What makes it so difficult for smaller funds to break through when part of the argument for #etfs is accessibility? I have theories but I'm curious to hear from people on the ground. Comments below would be most appreciated. AUMs for reference 👇. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. MERELY CONFUSION FROM A NON-EXPERT IN THIS AREA. (Although I did write a decidedly mediocre paper 😬 on the David Askin's MBS #hedgefund blow up at Harvard Business School decades ago, so there you have it...)

60

38 Comments

The 8th trillion-dollar company: Blue Whale Growth Fund adds Broadcom to its Top 10 holdings on structural tailwinds in May 2024. Cristian Angeloni

35

1 Comment

Last week, I had the pleasure of participating on the CIO panel at our 7th ETF Symposium at J.P. Morgan Asset Management's NY headquarters. Key takeaways for managing multi-asset portfolios, ETFs provide: 𝗘̲fficiency to strategically access alpha and beta 𝗧̲actical opportunity to express specific views 𝗙̲lexibility to adapt to today's ever changing market conditions

185

7 Comments

This message is for anyone looking to hire talent in NYC on their operational due diligence team or any alternative investments manager who would like to hire an ODD expert to consult with them on that part of the sales process. 👉 Please consider reposting this message As a hiring manager, a recommendation from someone I trusted was gold. I only write these recommendations for people who I know very, very well and who I know will make me look like a genius for the introduction. I will not benefit from this post other than the endorphin rush one gets from making a good connection. We are all entitled to our own views on the ODD process, but I know this fact: ✨ these people are like free consulting to make your fund better ✨ Typically, they will visit for one day and the really good ones will point out every flaw in your business and then will tell you exactly what you need to do to fix it. This woman was my client a decade ago. She would come in annually and I knew that if we weren’t prepared for her, it was going to be painful, and we’d have no one to blame but ourselves. She is passionate about improving fund managers and that is what makes her so good. She prefers the flexibility to perform substantive, deep dive reviews of potential investment managers. She has no interest in just checking boxes. She has 16 years of experience conducting operational due diligence on hedge fund and PE/PD managers. Her resume is a list of prestigious institutional investors that you'd expect would have robust ODD capabilities. Besides a thorough understanding of back office best practices that you’d anticipate from an ODD specialist, she also has many unique hard skills including a deep understanding of the following: ERISA, LPA & PPM drafting, SBC & SMA structures, direct lending agreements (for co-invests), all kinds of entity structuring, and UCITS and non-US structures. She has reviewed hundreds of funds and products and is easily able to weigh in on new product creation from a limited partner’s standpoint. She has domestic and international experience. She speaks Russian fluently 🔥 Most importantly, she is a good human. She’s easy to work with, pleasant to be around and would be a fantastic addition to any team. This position should be in NYC, CT or remote. Full time in-office requirement is fine. Send me a message if you have an opportunity that you'd like her to consider.

20

We were honored to have special guest, Boston Red Sox Legend, Kevin Youkilis, join us at our Market Intelligence lunch in Boston last Friday. Thank you to Youk and to the many attendees who took the time to meet with us and discuss what we believe to be the opportunities in real estate investing today. #Multifamily #RealEstate #Investing

108

2 Comments

It was a pleasure hosting Reihan Salam, President of the Manhattan Institute, at the Red Apple Group offices recently. Reihan’s insights into policy, economics, and the future of our cities are consistently thought-provoking. As a regular contributor on platforms like CNN, Real Time with Bill Maher on HBO (Warner Bros. Discovery), and The Atlantic, he remains an essential voice in today’s policy discourse. Fun fact (aka nerd alert!): Reihan and I go way back—30 years ago, we were competitors on two of the nation’s top-ranked speech and debate teams at Stuyvesant High School and Iona Preparatory School. Those formative years sharpened our skills in public speaking and critical analysis, setting the stage for professional journeys defined by rigorous inquiry. It’s inspiring to see how those early days of debate shaped leaders and thinkers like Reihan, who now contributes so significantly to the broader discourse on public policy and governance. Recently, Reihan joined John Catsimatidis, Founder & CEO of Red Apple Group, on The Cats Roundtable on 77 WABC Radio, to discuss the current state of the U.S., with a special focus on New York. As a Brooklyn native and the son of Bangladeshi immigrants, Reihan brings a uniquely grounded and thoughtful perspective on improving New York City and State. This segment originally aired on Sunday, November 3, on New York’s #1 rated station, 77 WABC Radio, owned and operated by Red Apple Group. Reihan’s views on the path forward for New York are well worth a listen.  Interview Link:  https://lnkd.in/ecWY2Eme    Manhattan Institute: Under Reihan’s leadership, is a cornerstone in the world of public policy. Established in 1977, the Institute remains one of America’s leading think tanks. Through rigorous research and data-driven recommendations, the Institute shapes public policy debates, offering non-partisan, research-based solutions to some of the nation's most pressing challenges. Under Reihan's leadership, as cities and states grapple with post-pandemic challenges, the Institute’s research will be more essential than ever, guiding efforts to create resilient, vibrant communities. Through Reihan’s stewardship, the Manhattan Institute continues its mission with a steadfast commitment to integrity, clarity, and data over partisanship. Ultimately, Reihan and the Manhattan Institute exemplify the power of ideas, showing that dedication to facts, intellectual rigor, and principled discourse can lead to real, meaningful change. #ManhattanInstitute #PolicyLeadership #PublicPolicy #EconomicFreedom #Governance #NewYorkPolicy #ThoughtLeadership #RedAppleGroup #WABCRadio #PublicDiscourse #SpeechAndDebateLegacy #FreeMarketIdeas #ConstructiveDialogue #RedAppleGroup #JohnCatsimatidis #WABC770 #NewYork #NewYorkState #NewYorkCity

86

7 Comments

See you all tomorrow (Dec. 19) on @CNBC-Overtime at 4pm ET. Nine down days in a for the Dow as of yesterday, the most since 1978, as economically sensitive stocks give back their post-election runs. Mega cap tech outperforms, again. What to do for 2025? Stay tuned. @barbara_doran1 #investments #finance

6

Nearly 10 years ago, venture capitalist Marc Andreessen famously claimed that “software is eating the world.” But today, a new crop of “frontier innovators” are straying away from disrupting existing industries with software in favour of building new industries, improving current innovation models, and addressing market gaps that Silicon Valley ignored. In his new book, Out-Innovate: How Global Entrepreneurs--from Delhi to Detroit--Are Rewriting the Rules of Silicon Valley, Alex Lazarow interviews more than 200 entrepreneurs from around the world about their challenges, success stories, and what he calls the "frontier," the growing constellation of startup ecosystems, outside of the Valley. On this episode of RBC Disruptors, Alex and John discuss the shift from the equity model in venture capital, what it means to be born global, and the future of innovation in Canada, and around the worldKey takeaways: Founders don’t have to settle for cash-for-equity venture capital, and should explore new models around partnerships or royalties. Every innovator needs to be “born global,” and look at the whole world as a potential market. The Silicon Valley playbook is not the only way to succeed, and founders need to consider how they are building businesses that make an impact, not just a profit.

2

#hedgefund stockpickers are doing something right this year. Per Goldman Sachs data: - Longs up 30% -- 500 bps ahead of the roaring S&P Global 500 index and 1200 bps ahead of the MSCI Inc. ACWI index. - Shorts only up 12%. Impressive.

42

3 Comments

Out of complete necessity, I will host another CollinsCast 10/23 at 5pm ET to discuss $TSLA EPS before the mgmt call begins at 5:30pm. Video call link: https://lnkd.in/eEErpw_7 Or dial: ‪(US) +1 402-732-7305‬ PIN: ‪403 326 826‬# I have never seen a more confused bunch of "analysts." $TSLA is going to market with a 7.25 year-old (3) and 4.5 year-old (Y) product lineup. Old product requires discounting, and that pressures profit margins. Full stop. That is why $TSLA earnings have been consistently mediocre and margin pressure at what was proclaimed by nitwits--as recently as 12 months ago--as "the most profitable automaker in the world" is incessant. As shown in the chart below, $TSLA has LOST $550 BILLION in market cap in the past 2.75 years, which is an extraordinary diminution in value. And if you compare RELATIVE performance vs., for instance, $NVDA, or even $AAPL, which pays a dividend (something TSLA has never done,) $TSLA stock has been an absolute disaster since the beginning of 2022. But Wall Street hides that. Tomorrow, I will explain why. Join the CollinsCast.

2

Graph of the week: the valuation gap between AI infrastructure stocks vs. companies that are expected to generate revenue from AI and/or improve productivity suggests that the market is unconvinced about the long-term adoption and monetization of the technology. The one thing that’s certain - AI is energy intensive.

4

In post-pandemic world, there have been larger gaps between first release and revision for JOLTS job openings data ... lately, revisions have been to downside (a reversal of norm in 2021-2022)

8