Adam Johnson

As we just announced BamaStars PEA results for a vertically integrated graphite industry in Alabama, I thought I would rehash this previous PR about China's $230B investment and approach to support EV auto industry. It's an important point. Critical metals and support for the energy transition supply chain is critical at a time when we have a 5 alarm fire for the future of the industry. This is an urgent question of energy & national security and a more secure, diversified supply chain. The situation gets progressively worse and harder (more $) to resolve with every passing day in the West where as stated, "in general Western automakers and governments have dilly dallied and not been aggressive enough." #SouthStar #graphite #mining #Brazil #Brasil #alabama #criticalmetals #criticalminerals #anode #batterymetals #energystorage #ev #electricvehicles #energytransition #geopolitics #renewableenergy #lithiumionbatteries https://lnkd.in/erYJQ-uQ

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#CPA Report Exposes #WallStreet’s Dangerous Ties With #ChineseCommunistParty -Controlled #Banks The Coalition for a Prosperous America today released a new “case study” report 2 Congress that highlights the growing influence of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) over U.S. financial firms. The report titled “Inside the Wire:Wall Street’s Joint Ventures with the Chinese Communist Party” reveals how U.S. financial giants—including #BlackRock & #GoldmanSachs -have formed joint ventures (JVs) with state banks controlled by the Chinese Communist Party (#CCP ),giving #Beijing unprecedented influence over major U.S. financial firms & Wall Street executives. These partnerships provide the CCP with dangerous leverage that poses a serious risk 2 U.S. economic & national security. KEY FINDINGS -Large Wall Street firms,like BlackRock & Goldman Sachs, have launched joint ventures with banks controlled by the CCP in exchange 4 direct access 2 China’s multi-trillion-dollar wealth management market; -The JVs fall under Chinese law,requiring the ongoing approval of state bank regulators controlled by the #CCP ,giving Chairman #XiJinping unprecedented leverage over Wall Street’s politically-influential management class; -Congress must act before the financial incentives offered by the JVs – billions of dollars in potential management fees – draws the CCP and Wall Street even into ever-closer collaboration, jeopardizing Congress’ ability to act freely and decisively in the interest of the American people (via campaign donations etc.)..... https://lnkd.in/eJgrUpBt

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Bloomberg sees a huge investment deficit in the supply of metals needed for the energy transition, with supply squeezes coming. Deep in the supply chain, we have already seen insufficient supply slow adoption. Major players in the mining industry are risk averse and have not invested on the basis of future demand, and to the extent they have invested it has been focused on consolidating existing supply in large, established markets like copper, not real supply growth. In the last few years, major consumers like Tesla, GM, and Ford have learnt that lesson and invested directly into nickel and lithium production to secure supply. There are a host of other materials needed for the energy transition that are not getting attention. With the average lead time between the discovery of a new mineral deposit and supply coming online reaching over 17 years we need more investment in real supply growth yesterday.

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It's exciting for me to share the news that Synergos Holdings portfolio company USA Rare Earth, LLC is going public via SPAC. When I met with founder Mordi Gutnick and CEO Pini Althaus it became clear to me that we had a winner prospect. As early-stage investors, we were deeply involved in understanding the rare earth elements (REE) and critical minerals (CM) space to fully recognize the immense value proposition Mordi and Pinni established. It was a long and arduous journey that required significant effort from the outset and patience. At the time, the greater investment community overlooked the potential in REE and CM, making it difficult to attract interest or capital. But we believed in the strategic importance of these sectors. Beyond investing, we engaged heavily in policy development and public awareness, conducting congressional outreach to shape key discussions. We were advocates and educators, driving conversations that helped unlock the industry's potential. At this point the company is well established and the returns for early seed investors are nothing short of remarkable. Those who bought 2,500,000 shares at 30 cents each, invested $750,000 and are about to see an approximate 30x exit. To put it in perspective, that $750,000 investment will have turned into approximately $22.5 million in just 5.5 years. Compare that kind of ROI to more traditional investments and its not even close. Even if someone took out a cash advance and secured a 20%–25% annual return, their $750,000 would grow to approximately $1.9 million to $2.3 million over the same period. It’s a decent return, but it pales in comparison to the such well thought out and executed tech investments. For further comparison, putting that $750,000 into the S&P 500 at 8% annual return would only yield around $1.1 million after five years, and a strong real estate deal with a 10.5% return would grow to roughly $1.2 million. While cash advances and other high-yield financial products can offer strong returns, the risk-adjusted outcomes of this hard tech deal are on a completely different level, particularly after extensive due diligence. This type of investment presents a truly unmatched opportunity for growth. #HardTech #TechInvesting #IPO #EarlyInvestors #HighReturns #SeedInvestment #CashAdvance #InvestmentStrategy #WealthGrowth #RiskReward #TechExit #CompoundedReturns #FinancialGrowth #SmartInvesting #VentureCapital #AlternativeInvestments

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Building supply chains is a process that includes a number of well known steps. One of the most important is to ink firm purchase orders. Credible orders give suppliers the reasonable assurance they need to invest in new capabilities and capacity improvements. Radiant, one of the companies in the Nucleation Capital portfolio, understands the value of issuing purchase orders.

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Copper is one of the essential, irreplaceable, and finite materials integral to electrification. After nearly a century of extraction, the majority of high-grade, easy-to-reach copper has been depleted. With global supplies growing only by 3.5%, projections for 2030 signal a massive $111.6B supply gap. That's why we backed Liz Dennett, PhD and the pioneering team at Endolith. Liz and her team bring to bear the power of microbes and genomics to solve what heretofore seemed like an intractable problem: increasing copper yield while moving away from costly and environmentally harmful leaching processes. Here's a bit more from me and Chris Dowd about Endolith, including a discussion with Liz! https://lnkd.in/egRJ-q-S

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This piece reminds me, once again, of the importance of quality longform journalism. Julian Spector frames the opposing "takes" on the #ercot #bess #energystorage (bulls vs. bears) very effectively here, with insightful support from the proverbial "smartest guy in the room" on the topic (Zubaty). I land on the bull side. The fallacy of confusing "storage projects in the queue" for "future capacity" is at the heart of this view. Few would disagree that the fundamentals of i) load growth, and ii) increasingly intermittent energy mix offer a very compelling backdrop for continued excellent BESS returns. The countervailing force is, of course, the supply of new storage installations expected in the years to come. There will be a lot, that is certain. But if history is any indication, it will be less than queue-based predictions would have you believe. You know what few do? Compare "actuals" to previously projected capacity buildouts. As the article notes, BloombergNEF estimates that the 2024 tally will be 4.3 GW of BESS capacity additions. EIA guesses 6.4 GW. I went back 5 years and looked at EIA's 1-year-prior and 2-years-prior projections for ERCOT BESS capacity additions and compared that to what actually happened. 10 out of 10 of those projections were higher than the actual. Some were pretty close (for example their 2022 prediction for 2023 additions was only ~5% high), but a few were off by 50%+. (I haven't sleuthed around for the same BNEF comparison yet). This matches the "felt" experience as a market participant. Rumors of the imminent saturation of the ERCOT storage market are usually greatly exaggerated. I believe this is because they rest on a false premise: faster/more capacity buildout than what comes to pass. As I've mentioned before, I believe this arises from a fundamental lack of appreciation for how hard it is to shepherd a project to placed-in-service. The low barriers of entry in ERCOT are conflated with ease of development/EPC/financing execution. Not to mention a failure to appreciate what it takes to pull off the successful operation of an ERCOT BESS asset - specifically optimizing the revenue line. It's hard. Yes, even with your "proprietary algorithm". This systemic analytical "trap" is actually rather welcome for those of us continuing to develop and build ERCOT storage - it keeps the opportunity window open. But in the long run, I'd rather the confusion around this dissipate, so that the market find some footing beyond the always-over-correcting-one-way-or-the-other state it's in now. https://lnkd.in/eKaHeqYu

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🚨 📺 Benchmark Mineral Intelligence x Rho Motion on the Energy Storage market - Free Webinar ——- I haven’t see this much excitement and anticipation for the energy storage (ESS) market since 2016. Back then the space was buoyed by: the rise of the gigafactory, the potential availability of lithium ion batteries at scale, and the successful implementation of the first wave of battery storage projects, especially in California. The promise was soon defalted and delayed due to the lack of availability of battery supply being sucked into the #EV Today, 8 years on, it feels like the promise is about to be realised. ——- In 2024, #battery energy storage installations are set to increase by over 60% in the US and Canada.   Benchmark's upcoming webinar with Rho Motion will zoom in on the evolving US battery storage landscape in the midst of this year's significant scale-up.   🔋 US Battery Storage Boom 📆 Thursday 15 August 🕖 07:00 or 15:00 (GMT+1) Register now ➡ https://lnkd.in/gSEtWbti Our analysts will delve into the region’s #cathode supply chain, ongoing supply from China and emerging ex-China hubs, as well as exploring developments in the #sodiumion battery pipeline and storage-specific cell manufacturing.

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Great.  Instead of buying uranium from Russia, the US will be buying it from China.   70% of the US renewable energy supply chain is sourced from China.   Critical components of the US transmission grid are sourced from China.   Meanwhile, US electricity demand will grow 16% over the next five years, batteries are still not competitive with fossil fuel generation, and all of the MSOs are scrambling to figure out how to meet demand.   Is anyone at the National Security Council, The White House or the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) paying attention to the strategic security of the US energy grid? #nationalsecurity #energypolicy #ww3  #nuclear Robert Hargraves Ryan Pickering American Nuclear Society Nuclear Energy Institute #nuclearenergy #energy #energypolicy#Electricity Doug Houseman Doug Sheridan Matt Alvarez Matt Quist Michael Caravaggio Meredith #RenewablesDavid Blackmon Oscar L. Martin Renewable Energy, Cleantech, Sustainability, Greentech, ESG, Energy, EVs, Hydrogen, CCUS Clean, Green, Renewable, Sustainable Energy Club  #wind #solar #solarenergy #grid #windenergy #renewableenergy #windfarms #netzero #inflationreductionact  https://lnkd.in/gHk4Ew_g

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What is straining the Texas grid? The oil and gas industry is switching from its own products (hydrocarbons) to grid electricity (a lot of renewables). Why? Cheaper. "The Permian Basin alone is expected to see 24 gigawatts of added power demand, about half from electrification of oil and gas operations and half from data centers and cryptocurrency mines, ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas told lawmakers." Using Texas power to produce oil and gas to export. Just like they are using up TX freshwater to produce oil for export. Transitioning off of fossil fuels will save a lot of water, power and fuel for shipping. https://lnkd.in/eBGcSkzJ

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Google's $10M carbon removal deal with Holocene is turning heads. At $100/ton, it's setting a new benchmark for direct air capture technology. But can this Tennessee startup deliver 100,000 tons of CO2 removal by 2030? #CarbonRemoval #CleanTech #ClimateAction #Sustainability #Innovation What's your take on the future of carbon capture technology?

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ICYMI this week given all of the political reporting swirl, the US just passed a landmark new law called the ADVANCE Act that should incentivize innovation and competition in nuclear fission. The focus is around modernizing how new reactor designs can get approved and get to market, streamlining various NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission) processes as well as funding for innovation prize competitions. The ADVANCE Act also directs the NRC to develop guidance to license and regulate microreactor designs within 18 months. And it enables the cleanup and reuse of brownfield sites -- including retired coal plants -- for new nuclear facilities. Lastly the Act also creates incentives to spur domestic production of HALEU fuel. In short, the US still has the largest nuclear fleet of any country in the world with 93 reactors, and yet over the last few decades our lead in this space has been diminishing as China, South Korea and other countries have continued to invest and innovate. This new legislation, which is now law, should help spur the US back into a global leadership position on nuclear fission innovation. https://lnkd.in/e_VdnpwW

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As I digest the recent updates on the USA's approach to tariff increases on Chinese imports, particularly in the EVs and Semicon sectors, I find myself pondering the broader implications of such economic strategies. While intended to protect domestic industries, these tariffs (now as high as 100% on some items) might not foster the productivity and competitive spirit we hope for in a thriving economy. It’s important to recognise that these costs often fall on the domestic consumers, potentially raising prices and reducing choices in the marketplace. Beyond economics, the escalation of tariffs can also strain geopolitical relations at a time when global cooperation is more crucial than ever. Moreover, one wonders if such measures serve as a strategy to manage national debt levels—using inflation to subtly erode the real value of debt, thereby easing repayment burdens with money that holds less value than when borrowed (i.e. Covid times). A clever fiscal maneuver, perhaps, but not without its own set of risks and challenges. As we navigate these complex economic landscapes, it’s vital to consider both the short-term impacts and the long-term consequences of our trade policies. #Economics #TradeTariffs #GlobalTrade #InflationStrategy #GeopoliticalTension

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C&EN posted a nice article this week on the finalized Section 45V guidance for hydrogen tax credits, including a quote from me. Check it out here: https://lnkd.in/giR5PD2Z

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I believe that someday Oxy's almost comically-named "Stratos" (Icarus anyone?) DAC project will be a dead concrete an steel monument to our hubris located in West Texas. The then rusting monument to our industrial-era hubris will be near the suitably and fatefully named former oil-field town of Notrees, TX - aptly named by my own predecessors at Shell when they long ago built a gas plant there and chose to cut down the very last tree in the area. Although a political and economic grift constructed upon engineering myopia (sorry, brothers) that could be done safely, in principle, I increasingly worry that it may also be surrounded by a fairy ring of fizzy geysers that I hereby suggest we prepare to call "Old Faithless." You know, a name that will be constant reminder of how for a time we lost our faith in the underlying power of nature and really thought our steel flange heads could last forever. Hopefully we don't build too many of these before we learn better. Someday, maybe someone will speak for the trees? The ghost of the already long gone Lorax is crying, as am I. I hope that some day, future engineering students will visit the site to learn about what happens when you leave nature out of your calculations. https://lnkd.in/g-CyDPe9

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EnCap Investments scored the latest private-equity exit deal in the oil patch, inking a nearly $2 billion asset sale to Matador Resources as publicly traded energy companies strive to expand before they become acquisition targets themselves. Dallas-based Matador said Wednesday that it agreed to buy a unit of Ameredev II Parent, an EnCap-backed oil and gas producer that operates in the Permian Basin in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. EnCap and its managers formed the company in 2017 with a $400 million commitment. As part of the deal, Matador is acquiring roughly 33,500 net acres in the Permian’s Delaware Basin with a daily output of as much as 26,000 barrels and 431 well sites. The buyer also gets a 19% stake that Ameredev II owns in Piñon Midstream, an operator of natural gas processing plants and pipelines that is also backed by private-equity firm Black Bay Energy Capital. The U.S. oil and gas sector has seen a number of substantial mergers and acquisitions in the past few years as large energy companies raced to secure prized assets. Some of those buyout targets remain for sale in the rapidly consolidating shale industry, particularly in the prolific Permian.

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Global thermal coal market review and outlook – 2025 Pricing across every major market has been tightly rangebound for all of 2024, particularly when compared to the record volatility of recent years, save for some slight breakout of pricing in response to the winter period. European API2 prices trended mostly between $100-120/t in 2024, save for a brief period in February where pricing dipped to the low $90s/t following lower coal generation and high stockpiles as the market exited the winter heating period. In Asia, benchmark Australian FOB Newcastle NAR 6,000 kcal/ kg prices remained at a firm premium to the rest of the market, trending around $130-145/t for most of the year. At this level, many other non-Australian coals were able to effectively price into the high-CV Asian space as virtually every other seaborne supply can deliver to Asia below the Newcastle benchmark. Markets - China & India It isn't easy to understate the size and importance of China in the global thermal coal market. The country has remained the largest producer and importer by some margin with 2024 seaborne import demand at a staggering 358mn t, with an additional 39.5mn t imported overland from Russia and Mongolia. Seaborne volume for 2025 will likely fall slightly, which is unsurprising given that 2024 is a record high, but it should remain close to this number at around 340mn t. Despite this bumper year, perceptions of weaker Chinese economic growth started to exert bearish pressure across the global market toward the end of 2024, which was compounded when the country’s flagging steel sector began dumping the product into India, consequentially damaging Indian steel-sector demand for thermal coal as well. India imported 167mn t of thermal coal in 2024, slightly lower on the year, as demand in 2H slowed sharply, particularly from the cement, sponge iron, and other industrial sectors. We think demand should remain under pressure in early 2025 because of the large volumes of Chinese steel that are being dumped in Indian markets, and as power sector demand comes under pressure from expiring government directives that had previously mandated utilities to import. But longer term, Indian imports are expected to keep growing given India’s rampant power demand growth and similar strength in other coal-consuming industries such as the sponge iron and cement sectors. Impressive Indian domestic production has finally been meeting government targets and is undoubtedly a headwind for import demand in the coming years, but we think that given the particular characteristics of imported coal, domestic coal is more likely to take market share in the power sector than in the industrial space. #market #outlook #thermal #coal #european #api2 #coalgeneration #australia #highcv #seaborne #asia #china #india #russia #mongolia #steel #production #sponge #iron #marketanalysis #cement #power #sector

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One thing that comes up often is how the U.S. government is stepping up to support companies in the Critical Minerals sector. As founders, our job is to figure out how to leverage these resources to reduce our cost of capital and accelerate our businesses. Right now, there’s concern that support for the energy transition could change with a shifting administration. But the reality is, while the landscape may change, our approach as founders just has to adapt. Navigating the complex bureaucracy is key. Let me share some of the learnings we've had along the way: - National Science Foundation (NSF) – This is an excellent starting point for early funding. The NSF offers a breadth of expertise and focuses on funding technology with a goal of commercialization. For many startups, it’s a solid first stop. - Department of Energy (DoE) – The DoE is generally geared toward supporting very early-stage technology. Programs like ARPA-E are fantastic for startups working on novel, high-potential technologies. If you’re developing something that could reshape energy, this is the place to start. - Department of Defense (DoD) – The DoD tends to focus on more proven technologies. Programs like DPA Title 3, AFWERX, and other key initiatives can provide significant funding to help deploy and scale up validated solutions, particularly those aligned with U.S. national security. There’s no doubt the challenges are real—Chinese market manipulation continues to have a significant influence on U.S. critical technologies. But groups like the Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) are stepping in to help reduce the cost of capital through innovative funding solutions like the latest loan program, specifically designed to scale breakthrough technologies that bolster national security. For more information on the OSC’s first Notice of Funding Availability (NOFA), check out the official announcement: OSC NOFA Announcement. So, no matter what happens politically, there are resources available for founders in the Critical Minerals sector. The key is finding the right partners at the right stages of your company’s growth. It’s about leveraging the support that’s out there to scale some of the most revolutionary technologies, while reducing the burden of raising costly capital. Let’s keep innovating, keep navigating, and keep pushing toward a more secure, sustainable future. #CriticalMinerals #Founders #GovernmentFunding #Innovation #EnergyTransition #NSF #DoE #DoD #StrategicCapital #ScaleUp #CleanTech #NationalSecurity

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