Magnus Financial Group LLC

■ Market results were mixed in February. U.S. large-cap stocks ended the month down 1.3%, and U.S. small-cap stocks declined 5.3% while U.S. intermediate-term bonds gained 2.2%.  ■ Consumer spending declined, but wages increased. Inflation remains persistently elevated. ■ It remains unclear how much of the decline in bond yields signals optimism about the Department of Government Efficiency’s impact on the deficit versus concerns over a growth slowdown caused by tariffs.  ■ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is urging markets and consumers to bear the short-term pain of government spending cuts and tariffs for long-term gains stemming from the anticipated boost in domestic manufacturing and capital investment.  Please see the attached February 2025 Market Commentary which may be of interest to you: https://lnkd.in/gk5cjzMy #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #money #socialmedia #marketing #trends #marketcommentary #inflation #diversification #economicgrowth #marketvaluations #equitymarket #artificialintelligence Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden Sources: Reuters, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve System, FactSet, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Congressional Budget Office, CNBC, The Hill, Bloomberg, The Washington Times, Department of Government Efficiency, Harvard University, Forbes, The Wall Street Journal, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, South China Morning Post SCMP, Penn Wharton Budget Model, Tax Foundation

■ U.S. large-cap stocks gained 2.8% in the first month of 2025 while U.S. small-cap stocks rose by 2.6%. U.S. intermediate-term bonds rose by a modest 0.5%. ■ Preliminary reports show the U.S. economy growing at a slower-than-expected pace in the fourth quarter of 2024. Headline inflation, driven by rising energy prices, rose to 2.9% in December. ■ DeepSeek's open-sourced AI model rivals OpenAI’s ChatGPT at a lower cost, potentially reshaping the AI landscape by making advanced AI more accessible. ■ Trump's return to the White House generated over 100 executive orders, including withdrawals from the WHO and Paris Agreement, major immigration changes, and the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency to address the U.S. fiscal deficit. Please see the attached January 2025 Market Commentary which may be of interest to you: https://lnkd.in/gSdKNG4c #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #money #socialmedia #marketing #trends #marketcommentary #interestrates Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Reuters, Institute for Supply Management, Bureau of Labor Statistics, FactSet, Liz Ann Sonders via X, Bloomberg, arXiv, CNN, CNBC, The White House, CBO, House Committee on Homeland Security, Department of Government Efficiency (USA), Trepp, Inc., The Washington Times, BBC, NBC News, US Government Accountability Office, Fortune, Bloomberg Law

10-Year Treasury Yield ■ Relative to prior major rate-cutting cycles, the 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated since the Fed’s first interest rate cut of the current cycle, in September.   ■ The bond market reaction to inflation and jobs data, FOMC minutes, and fading rate cut expectations suggests that the Fed may have underestimated the risk of inflation holding steady or even picking up again.  ■ We continue to monitor longer-term Treasury yields as a warning signal for what may be the largest risk of all—bond markets rejecting excessive government spending. The full Q1 2025 Market Outlook can be found at: https://lnkd.in/ghaanUGr #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #bigdata #data #money #socialmedia #marketing #inflation #trends #financialmarkets #globaltrends #riskmanagement Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden

Small Business Optimism  ■ Small business optimism ended December 2024 at a six-year high in anticipation of pro-business policies and legislation from the incoming administration. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped from 91 in August to 105 in December—the largest three-month rise on record for the Index.  ■ 52% of small business owners reported expecting the economy to improve, rising to the highest level since December 1982.  ■ Inflation and labor quality remain key concerns for small business owners. We believe that reduced regulation may further contribute to small business growth. The full Q1 2025 Market Outlook can be found at: https://lnkd.in/ghaanUGr #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #bigdata #data #money #socialmedia #marketing #inflation #trends #financialmarkets #globaltrends #riskmanagement Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden

“Today’s S&P-leading companies are, in many ways, much better than the best companies of the past. They enjoy massive technological advantages. They have vast scale, dominant market shares, and thus above-average profit margins. And since their products are based on ideas more than metal, the marginal cost of producing an additional unit is low, meaning their marginal profitability is unusually high.” - Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital Management, L.P., Co-founder & Co-chairman The full Q1 2025 Market Outlook can be found at: https://lnkd.in/ghaanUGr #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #bigdata #data #money #socialmedia #marketing #inflation #trends #financialmarkets #globaltrends #riskmanagement Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden

“Well, I am concerned about fiscal sustainability, and I am sorry that we haven’t made more progress. I believe that the deficit needs to be brought down, especially now that we’re in an environment of higher interest rates.” - Janet Yellen, U.S. Treasury Secretary The full Q1 2025 Market Outlook can be found at: https://lnkd.in/ghaanUGr #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #bigdata #data #money #socialmedia #marketing #inflation #trends #financialmarkets #globaltrends #riskmanagement Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden

Q4, 2024 Market Review ■ Major winners over the fourth quarter included digital assets (+52%) and midstream energy (+5%) while ex-U.S. real estate (-15%) and international small-cap stocks   (-8%) fared worst. ■ U.S. equities fared better than their international counterparts. U.S. large-cap stocks ended the fourth quarter up 2%, while U.S. small-cap stocks ended the quarter flat, up 0.3%. In contrast, developed market international stocks ended the fourth quarter down 8% while developed market small-cap stocks ended December down 8%.  ■ U.S. intermediate-term bonds ended the fourth quarter down 3.1% while international developed market bonds ended the quarter down 8.2%. The full Q1 2025 Market Outlook can be found at: https://lnkd.in/ghaanUGr #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #bigdata #data #money #socialmedia #marketing #inflation #trends #financialmarkets #globaltrends #riskmanagement Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden

“The U.S. economy has been resilient. Unemployment remains relatively low, and consumer spending stayed healthy, including during the holiday season. Businesses are more optimistic about the economy, and they are encouraged by expectations for a more pro-growth agenda and improved collaboration between government and business. However, two significant risks remain. Ongoing and future spending requirements will likely be inflationary, and therefore, inflation may persist for some time. Additionally, geopolitical conditions remain the most dangerous and complicated since WWII.” - Jamie Dimon, J.P. Morgan CEO The full Q1 2025 Market Outlook can be found at: https://lnkd.in/ghaanUGr #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #bigdata #data #money #socialmedia #marketing #inflation #trends #financialmarkets #globaltrends #riskmanagement Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden

■ The economy has started 2025 on a positive note, with U.S. consumer spending robust and sentiment positive. Equity and credit markets are trading at high valuations, reflecting this optimism, but poor bond market returns in recent years highlight the difficult trade-off that policymakers will need to navigate. ■ The incoming administration appears focused on the challenging task of bolstering economic growth while at the same time reducing the deficit. The most critical element of this endeavor will be curtailing the deficit while keeping longer-term yields contained so as not to disrupt economic expansion. ■ While the Federal Reserve can dictate short-term interest rates through policy decisions, they have less control over longer-term rates. Since the first rate cut in September, longer-term yields have continued to rise, moving higher than other rate-cutting cycles. ■ A rise in bond yields is not necessarily bad. However, unless the increase is driven by higher long-term growth prospects that translate into stronger corporate earnings—rather than by fiscal irresponsibility or perceived policy missteps—it could adversely affect not only rate-sensitive areas of the market, but also the broader economy and other asset classes. The full Q1 2025 Market Outlook can be found at: https://lnkd.in/ghaanUGr #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #bigdata #data #money #socialmedia #marketing #inflation #trends #financialmarkets #globaltrends #riskmanagement Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden

■ U.S. large-cap stocks hit over 50 new all-time highs in 2024, ending the year up 25%. U.S. small-cap stocks gained 11% and U.S. intermediate-term bonds ended 2024 up 1%. ■ Post-election, small business optimism recorded the largest month-over-month increase since July 1980. A similar shift in sentiment was noted in various CFO surveys. ■ Despite sticky inflation and higher interest rates, the U.S. consumer remained resilient while U.S. government spending continued unchecked. ■ The incoming administration appears focused on the challenging task of bolstering economic growth while at the same time reducing the deficit. ■ The most critical element of this endeavor will be curtailing the deficit while keeping longer-term yields contained so as not to disrupt economic expansion. Please see the attached Q4 2024 Market Commentary which may be of interest to you: https://lnkd.in/g5TCzAVE #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #money #socialmedia #marketing #trends #marketcommentary #interestrates Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, CME Group, Adobe, Mastercard, Bipartisan Policy Center, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Congressional Budget Office, Institute for Supply Management, National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) , Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, NBC News, AP News, FactSet, Franklin Templeton, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Hill, CNN, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, The Washington Times, US Government Accountability Office, U.S. Department of Justice, Reuters, AAA, CNBC, Financial Times, Nikkei Asia, U.S. Energy Information Administration