Automotive Futures Group

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞-𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐕𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐞 𝐎𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐖𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐳𝐞 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐀𝐮𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐬 During the last Q&A session at our recent Software-Defined Vehicles (SDVs) hybrid conference at the University of Michigan, we asked all of our panelists to talk about what SDVs will look like 5-10 years from now.  During the conference there was a lot of discussion about the opportunities SDVs offer and challenges they face.  Their responses recorded here show a variety of predictions from #SDV being the dominant vehicle architecture but with customized versions available depending on the needs of the buyer, to SDVs supported by only a couple of major software companies using AI that will enable leapfrog technology.  They also see consolidation of companies in the future based on SDVs, where hardware and #software specialists provide differentiation with their products.  Thanks again from our panelists:  Derek de Bono and Rachel Forestier from Valeo, Julia Garcia-Trombley from FEV.io, Tanjeff Schadt and Martin Gerhardus from Strategy& (PwC), and Siamak Moshiri from ETAS (Bosch). 

𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐧 𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞 𝐒𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐒𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞-𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐕𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐈𝐬 𝐍𝐨𝐭 𝐎𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐇𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐳𝐨𝐧 At our recent Software-Defined Vehicle (SDV) Conference at the University of Michigan, our presenters discussed how likely open-source software will be a part of SDVs.  Our presenters included Derek de Bono from Valeo, Siamak Moshiri from ETAS/Bosch, and Martin Gerhardus from Strategy&/PwC.  They all had interesting viewpoints on the potential for open-source software in SDVs ranging from noting that open-sourced software posed some cybersecurity risks and thus would not be involved in safety critical applications, yet the need for standardization is needed.  And if companies do not come together to create a standard system, hyper accelerators such as Android may come in to dominate the software architecture.

𝐂𝐲𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐈𝐬 𝐎𝐧𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐢𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐒𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞-𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐕𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐞𝐬 During our recent Software-Defined Vehicle (SDV) hybrid conference at the University of Michigan, one of our key discussion points was the challenge of cybersecurity within the SDV framework.  Derek de Bono from Valeo discussed how, if companies cannot guarantee cybersecurity for some of its SDV options, especially for safety technology, they will have to turn them off remotely in order to maintain security until a fix is available.  Though cybersecurity is a big challenge, being able to remotely fix and repair vehicles is a huge advantage for manufacturers.  No returns to dealerships and avoiding possible vehicle recalls will help support manufacturer reputations with changes that need to be made regularly to keep drivers safe.

𝐒𝐃𝐕𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐀𝐮𝐭𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐨𝐮𝐬 𝐕𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐞𝐬: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐌𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐎𝐮𝐫 𝐀𝐃𝐀𝐒/𝐀𝐕 𝐁𝐞? During our discussion of software-defined vehicles with Derek de Bono from Valeo at our recent conference on the topic, two major issues came to the fore.  First, the risk involved in autonomous vehicles (AVs) is slowing down AV implementation because the manufacturer is responsible for accidents in an Level 3 AV; whereas, the driver is responsible for Level 2 AVs.  Second, the industry understands that AVs must be not as good, but better drivers than human drivers if they are to be successful.  Though SDVs support the transition to AVs, these two insights show why there are larger issues beyond technological capability involved in AVs, and that it may be quite a while before pure AVs with Level 4 or 5 capability and no supervision are ubiquitous on our roads.

𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐑𝐞-𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐎𝐫𝐠𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨  𝐒𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞-𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐕𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐞𝐬 During the Q&A sessions of our recent Software-Defined Vehicles (SDVs) conference at the University of Michigan, Derek de Bono from Valeo and Siamak Moshiri from ETAS/Bosch provided insights into the challenges traditional manufacturers face in transitioning to SDVs.  The main issue is the mindset of traditional manufacturers who have legacy systems they use to develop and design vehicles.  These systems work fine for non-SDV vehicles, but the manufacturers are beginning to see companies like Tesla and some Chinese OEMs beginning to take market share from the traditional manufacturers by designing all their vehicles as SDVs and using software to differentiate their vehicles. As these new entrants gain market share, traditional manufacturers who have legacy systems in place are being forced to rethink their approach.

𝐅𝐞𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐕𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐁𝐮𝐭 𝐋𝐨𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐕𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐞 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲 𝐚𝐭 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐄𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐰 The Consumer Electronics Show has been the place to announce new EVs in the past, but this year there were fewer new EV announcements but lots of new vehicle technology on display.  This slide deck provides a good overview of the vehicles and technologies that were on display.  Enjoy!

𝐀𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐒𝐩𝐨𝐭𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭:  𝐀𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐧 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝 𝐂𝐨𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚 One of Automotive Futures’ longest Affiliate members, AISIN World Corporation of America, recently merged two groups, Aisin Holdings of America and Aisin Technical Center of America, into Aisin World Corporation of America and separately created Aisin Aftermarket and Service of America.  Aisin continues to service their internal combustion customers with transmissions and, as this graphic shows, BEV options across e-axles, heat management, battery frame and giga castings, integrated vehicle control, brakes, and aerodynamic devices.  We appreciate the support our Aisin Affiliate Representative, Josh Schneider, continues to provide, and we look forward to working with him during 2025.

𝐀𝐮𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐅𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐀𝐮𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐧:  𝐒𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐕𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐨 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 In February, 2024 Automotive Futures hosted a conference on sustainable and profitable automotive supply chains at the University of Michigan.  Speakers included Stuart L. Hart from the UM Erb Institute for Global Sustainable Enterprise, Fred Gersdorff from General Motors in charge of socially and supply chains, and Laurie Hoose, PMP and David Andrea from Plante Moran.  Speakers provided some great work being done in sustainable supply chains but also the challenges complex supply chains present.  The presentations, video, and conference summary are now available on our website:  www.automotivefutures.org.

𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐫 𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐒𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞-𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐕𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐞𝐬 Siamak Moshiri from ETAS/Bosch provided some great insights about how each global manufacturer’s Make/Buy approach to software-defined vehicles during our Software-Defined Vehicle (SDV) hybrid conference last week at the University of Michigan.  It groups the companies into three main #SDV strategies:  outsourcing, partnerships, and vertical integration.  Not only does this chart show the general approach of manufacturers, it also shows where each manufacturer lies on its main focus for SDVs: quality, technology, or novelty.  So, we see many of the traditional manufacturers outsourcing SDV support with a focus on quality or technology; another group using partnerships across all three areas of quality, technology, and novelty; and a third group that uses vertical integration primarily for novelty and #technology.   We’re used to seeing quality and technology as descriptors for the auto industry, but the concept of novelty is a new way of describing how some Chinese companies approach their Chinese buyers.  During the conference, we discussed what new #software additions automakers can provide to buyers over the life of their vehicle, and some of the examples come from China where buyers are impressed by connectivity that mirrors their all-encompassing cell phone experience as well as unusual options (at least for Western buyers) like karaoke.  We’re very interested to see what “killer app” can come from SDVs in the future from whatever region of the world.

𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐂𝐡𝐨𝐨𝐬𝐞 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐒𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐎𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫 𝐕𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐞 𝐎𝐰𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐒𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞-𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐕𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐞𝐬 One of our speakers at our Software-Defined Vehicle (SDV) hybrid conference last week at the University of Michigan talked about distributing software across the vehicle, the “Edge” cloud, and the cloud itself.  Julia Garcia-Trombley from FEV.io focused on how difficult or easy it will be to decide what should be distributed.  This graph shows a benefit/effort matrix that all manufacturers and suppliers will need to use to decide what functions will be added to a software-defined vehicle based on how hard and what benefit it will provide both consumers and the company.  In these examples, range estimation will be managed in the cloud because it does not have any real-time requirements while electric motor control will remain an embedded function because it has strict real-time requirements that make a cloud application impractical. Our discussion during the conference also focused on what software will vehicle owners be willing to pay for in their vehicles.  Tesla’s upgrades that increased power and range of its vehicles were mentioned because of the high dollar amount each sale of these improvements brings to the company.  Traditional manufacturers will surely try to imitate #Tesla for these upgrades, but what other upgrades can companies offer their customers.  If our speakers knew, they didn’t want to tip their hands so early in the development of SDVs, so we will have to wait to see what offerings will arrive when true #SDVs come to traditional auto manufacturers.