Elliot Wave Techniques Simplified: How to Use the Probability Matrix to Profit on More Trades

PRAISE FOR

ELLIOTT WAVE TECHNIQUES SIMPLIFIED

"On my radio program, Bennett McDowell made a bold, unpopular prediction for the 2008 stock market, saying it could fall dramatically. And, then it happened. What alerted Ben to the upcoming crash was expressed in patterns of market behavior which have reoccurred throughout market history. With this book, Elliott Wave Techniques Simplified, you can learn how Bennett McDowell’s system can help increase your odds for success, by harnessing the power of probability forecasting."

—GABRIEL WISDOM, Host of the Financial Wisdom Radio Program

As always, Ben McDowell does an excellent job of explaining a complicated subject, plus Ben adds a new dimension to the analysis with his Probability Matrix—taking some of the vagueness out of the analysis. Whether or not you rely on Elliott Wave analysis, this book will explain it in such a way that you’ll be able to decide it if belongs in your arsenal of technical weapons or not.

—LAWRENCE G. MCMILLAN, President McMillan Analysis, author of Options as a Strategic Investment

I’ve always felt that applying Elliott wave principles could be very helpful in analyzing the market, but felt overwhelmed when I tried to make sense of it. Bennett presents a well written book on both the classic Elliott wave theories and adds some great tips on how to check or confirm your wave counts. This is a great place to start for anyone interested in this methodology.

—CAROLYN BORODEN, aka Fibonacci Queen, Author of Fibonacci Trading: How to Master the Time and Price Advantage

"I love this book! It provides an excellent understanding of using the Elliott Wave. It goes into the history of Elliott Wave from the founder of Elliott Wave theory, Ralph Nelson Elliott, to Robert Prechter who kept the wave alive. The book also explains how manias, panics, bubbles and crashes work with the five waves using psychology. This book is a must for anyone who believes there is a method of trading using chart patterns in terms of Elliott Wave.

—LARRY JACOBS, Editor Traders World Magazine

"A Japanese proverb says, ‘If you wish to know the road, inquire of those who have traveled it.’ My friend Bennett McDowell clearly knows the Elliott Wave road. His book fuses together his years of real world experience with his skills at computerized trading. Elliott Wave Techniques Simplified does exactly what the title says, it truly simplifies the principles of Elliott Wave. For those new to Elliott or those who have been using it for years, this is a resource that you must have."

—STEVE NISON, CMT, Founder and CEO of Candlecharts.com and the first to reveal candlesticks to the Western world

"Elliott Waves are all about forecasting but to be able to forecast as well as Ralph Nelson Elliott is a challenge. In Elliott Wave Techniques Simplified Bennett McDowell clearly explains how you can combine Elliott Waves with other techniques to identify tops and bottoms in the markets. Readers will be able to eliminate some of the uncertainties of using Elliott Waves and will be more confident in their entries and exits. Applying the methods discussed in this book will sharpen your forecasting skills."

—JAYANTHI GOPALAKRISHNAN, Editor Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities Magazine

R.N. Elliott developed his wave theory based on harmonious patterns within the laws of nature. Now Bennett McDowell has taken Elliott Wave analysis to a new watermark, sharing his Probability Matrix to provide traders and investors with an objective framework to evaluate any stock or market in detail. Newer traders and market veterans alike will enjoy the many lessons shared by a real-world trader and renowned educator to guide them though the many facets of successful trading.

— PRICE HEADLEY, CFA, CMT, Founder of BigTrends.com

"Throughout Elliott Wave Techniques Simplified, Bennett is mindful of providing both sound theory and practical applications. While he helps decode the secret language of Elliotticians, he never forgets that it is critically important to understand how to employ Elliott Wave interpretation in today’s markets. Having worked closely with Bennett for many years—and having heard him present his work directly to traders on countless occasions—his passion for his subject and respect for his audience are always apparent. Elliott Wave Techniques Simplified is no exception."

—STANLEY DASH, CMT, VP, Applied Technical Analysis, TradeStation Securities

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This book is dedicated with affection to my wife, Jean. I am thankful for her guidance, love, and support, and for inspiring me to always shoot for the stars.

CONTENTS

Acknowledgments

Disclaimer

Foreword by Stanley Dash

Introduction

CHAPTER 1    Who Is Ralph Nelson Elliott?

CHAPTER 2    Manias, Panics, Bubbles, and Crashes

CHAPTER 3    Classic Elliott Wave

CHAPTER 4    Classic Fibonacci Sequence

CHAPTER 5    Modern Elliott Wave

CHAPTER 6    Combining Classic and Modern Techniques for a Better Result

CHAPTER 7    Using the McDowell Probability Matrix to Trust and Verify Signals

CHAPTER 8    Real-Life Case Studies

CHAPTER 9    A Student’s Perspective by Dean Jenkins

APPENDIX A  Resources

APPENDIX B  Suggested Reading and Education

Glossary

Notes

Index

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Thank You

Ralph Nelson outlined an approach that works for me, and I’m grateful to him for sharing his vision with the world in 1938.

I’ve been trading waves for years. The Wave Principle has such accuracy and clarity for me. And, in 2008, my charts so clearly predicted the 1,000 point one-day drop in the DJIA—my students and colleagues were amazed. Now there’s not a day that I don’t use waves.

Many of my students share my passion for Elliott Wave analysis, and I’d like to thank several of them here for their years of friendship and mutual passion for wave counting.

Yves Pitteloud and Dr. Scott Ricke were instrumental in the manuscript development, giving their valuable insights from a student’s perspective. And special thanks go out to Dean Jenkins for contributing his personal story in Chapter 9 of this book.

And of course, thanks to my good friend Stanley Dash, VP, Applied Technical Analysis, of TradeStation Securities for writing the foreword to this book. Stan is the ultimate professional, and I’m honored to know him.

Finally, thanks to my wife Jeannie and my kids Brady and Heather Frances for reminding me every day that home is where the heart is.

Bennett A. McDowell

San Diego, California

December 2015

DISCLAIMER

Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results

The information in this book, Elliott Wave Techniques Simplified, is intended for educational purposes only. Traders and investors are strongly advised to do their own research and testing to determine the validity of any trading idea or system.

Trading in the financial markets involves substantial risk, and TradersCoach.com®, Bennett A. McDowell, or affiliates assume no responsibility for your success or failure in trading or investing in the markets. For this reason you should use only money you can afford to risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results and, even if you were successful with your trading and investing in the past, you may not be successful in the future. Traderscoach.com and Bennett A. McDowell make no performance representation or guarantee of any kind. TradersCoach.com encourages you to engage in numerous practice trades prior to risking any actual money.

Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since trades have not actually been executed, results may have undercompensated or overcompensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity.

Simulated trading programs and ideas are subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will, or is likely to, achieve results similar to those discussed in this book.

FOREWORD

A Three of a Three is a Thing of Beauty

Technical analysis of financial markets is predicated on using market data—price, time and volume—to identify price direction and critical price levels. Historians of the field have noted many landmarks such as Japanese candlesticks and the work done by Charles Dow on the economy and stock markets.

As the twentieth century progressed, we witnessed an expansion in the use of technical analysis including new applications of statistical concepts, aided by the power of computers. This blended many seemingly disparate ideas and perspectives into the art and craft as we know it today.

Gann, Edwards and Magee, Appel and Wilder are names familiar to every student of technical analysis. It was their pioneering work that propelled technical analysis to recognition as a viable and accepted discipline.

Another name that should be familiar to anyone who aspires to an understanding of technical analysis is that of Ralph Nelson Elliott and his eponymous wave.

Early in my own journey, I was mystified by discussions of Elliott Wave. Jargon such as "it’s a 3 of an a of a 2" seemed like a code impossible to crack. I’d come to grips with technical analysis, but this was a secret language and I wasn’t in the loop.

R. N. Elliott’s statement of the Wave Principle still stands as a benchmark 80 years after he formally organized his thoughts. In the ensuing decades, Elliott Wave has been accorded its proper place in the modern canon of technical analysis.

Bennett McDowell’s Elliott Wave Techniques Simplified pays due homage to this pioneering work and brings it into the twenty-first century; this book is a notable contribution to the modern era of Elliott Wave analysis.

In all candor, Elliott’s work may be among the most controversial of technical methods. It seems to divide technicians into believers and doubters.

Yet, doubters notwithstanding, even a novice chart reader who never heard of R. N. Elliott will agree that prices display patterns of ebb and flow. And just that simple agreement is all that’s needed to open the door, and the mind, to Elliott.

Throughout Elliott Wave Techniques Simplified, Bennett is mindful of providing both sound theory and practical applications. While he helps decode the secret language of Elliotticians, he never forgets that it is critically important for you, the reader, to understand how to employ Elliott Wave interpretation in today’s markets.

So let this be an invitation to you to bring an open mind and explore how Elliott Wave analysis can help you interpret price action. You’ll be able to judge for yourself whether your view of market action becomes clearer. After all, the goals with Elliott Wave remain the same as the ones I mentioned at the outset: identify price direction and critical price levels. Don’t give in to the temptation to make complex what should be simple.

Having worked closely with Bennett for many years—and having heard him present his work directly to traders on countless occasions—his passion for his subject and respect for his audience are always apparent. Elliott Wave Techniques Simplified is no exception.

There’s an expression I heard years ago, the attribution now lost, that sums up the perspective of every Elliottician—A three of a three is a thing of beauty. If that sounds like gibberish now, fear not; it will make perfect sense after you read this book.

Stanley Dash, CMT

VP, Applied Technical Analysis, TradeStation

New York City, NY

December 2015

INTRODUCTION

Let’s Have Fun Counting Waves

In talking with traders around the world, one of the biggest complaints I hear when they are attempting to use Elliott Wave analysis is that many feel it is subjective, making it unreliable. Others have voiced concerns that it is overly complex, making it difficult to learn and too cumbersome to use.

I’m here to tell you that when you use Elliott Wave analysis correctly, it is neither overly complex nor cumbersome. And when you employ the techniques covered in the following chapters, Elliott Wave analysis becomes reliable because you know how to identify the wave counts with the highest probabilities.

I’ve designed this book to simplify the process and make it easy for the novice and experienced trader alike to learn how to use the Elliott Wave count without having to resort to head-spinning calculations. And doing so will help you remove the subjectivity you may have experienced in the past.

You will learn how to quickly and easily identify Wave 3 of the Elliott Wave pattern. This ability in itself will improve your trading skills immensely, since it is Wave 3 that the savvy professional traders use to generate the bulk of their profits.

Here you’ll also see how to place a numerical probability percentage on Elliott Wave counts using the McDowell Probability Matrix, thereby separating stronger wave counts from weaker wave counts.

Plus, you’ll learn how to apply what is known as the classical approach to Elliott wave analysis in conjunction with a more modern approach that yields higher probability wave counts and goes a long way in removing the subjectivity in your analysis.

REMEMBER: The guessing game is now over.

From this point on you will have a systematic and straightforward mathematical approach to learning and then implementing the Elliott Wave count. Now you will have a road-map of the markets to help anticipate and then prepare for future price action rather than having to react to significant events that have already happened—so you will no longer be reacting to these events after the fact.

The methods you will learn in this book do not require any specialized software other than a good quality charting platform and market data feed, which you are probably already using.

If you need guidance on trading platforms and software, there’s lots of information at the back of this book. In fact, you can utilize some excellent technical analysis trading platforms at absolutely no cost. Typically, these free charting platforms provide end-of-day data, but if you are a position trader, that is all you need.

Depending on which broker(s) you have an account with, you may even be able to get a quality real-time market data feed at no cost. Again, at the back of this book there are a variety of quality solutions for you to choose from once you know what kind of trading or investing you will be involved in and once you know what markets are best suited for your needs.

Maintain an open mind as you begin reading about this new approach and let the material sink in. If you have had a bad experience with Elliott Wave previously, it is not your fault, and it is no wonder you had a hard time using price structure alone to count Elliott Waves. This book will give you the knowledge and tools needed